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Using output from a fitted machine learning algorithm as a predictor in a statistical model

Fred Gruber writes: I attended your talk at Harvard where, regarding the question on how to deal with complex models (trees, neural networks, etc) you mentioned the idea of taking the output of these models and fitting a multilevel regression model. Show More Summary

Stan is a probabilistic programming language

See here: Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language. Journal of Statistical Software. (Bob Carpenter, Andrew Gelman, Matthew D. Hoffman, Daniel Lee, Ben Goodrich, Michael Betancourt, Marcus Brubaker, Jiqiang Guo, Peter Li, Allen Riddell) And here: Stan is Turing Complete. Show More Summary

Real Sets

How to construct a set of cardinality pi.

Internal Languages of Higher Categories II

Guest post by Chris Kapulkin Two years ago, I wrote a post for the n-Cafe, in which I sketched how to make precise the claim that intensional type theory (and ultimately HoTT) is the internal language of higher category...

Fish switch attention from neighbor to neighbor for seamless collective movement

(PLOS) In a school of rummy-nose tetras, a common aquarium fish, group coordination appears to occur by each fish continuously changing which of its neighbors it pays attention to, according to new research published in PLOS Computational Biology.

Sunrise and sunset guide daily activities of city-dwellers

(PLOS) Despite artificial lightning and social conventions, the dynamics of daylight still influence the daily activities of people living in modern, urban environments, according to new research published in PLOS Computational Biol...

Teeth are the only bones that show

“I lived in the country where the dead wood aches, in a house made of stone and a thousand mistakes” – The Drones Sometimes it’s cold and grey and Canadian outside and the procrastination hits hard. Sometimes, in those dark moments,Show More Summary

Wine + Stan + Climate change = ?

Pablo Almaraz writes: Recently, I published a paper in the journal Climate Research in which I used RStan to conduct the statistical analyses: Almaraz P (2015) Bordeaux wine quality and climate fluctuations during the last century: changing temperatures and changing industry. Show More Summary

Thoughts on Philosophy of Contemporary Mathematics – I

This post – which I’ve split up into parts – is a bit of a departure from talking about the subject matter of mathematical ideas, and more about mathematics in general. In particular, a while ago I was asked a question by a philosopher friend about topology and topos theory as he was trying to […]

We start by talking reproducible research, then we drift to a discussion of voter turnout

Emil Kirkegaard writes: Regarding data sharing, you recently commented that “In future perhaps journals will require all data to be posted as a condition of publication and then this sort of thing won’t happen anymore.” We went a step further. Show More Summary

Male triathletes may be putting their heart health at risk

(Radiological Society of North America) Competitive male triathletes face a higher risk of a potentially harmful heart condition called myocardial fibrosis, according to new research. The increased risk, which was not evident in female triathletes, was directly associated with the athletes' amount of exercise.

Custom Distribution Solutions

I (Aki) recently made a case study that demonstrates how to implement user defined probability functions in Stan language (case study, git repo). As an example I use the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model extreme values of geomagnetic storm data from the World Data Center for Geomagnetism. Show More Summary

“A Bias in the Evaluation of Bias Comparing Randomized Trials with Nonexperimental Studies”

Jessica Franklin writes: Given your interest in post-publication peer review, I thought you might be interested in our recent experience criticizing a paper published in BMJ last year by Hemkens et al.. I realized that the method used...Show More Summary

Diagnosing the impacts of health policy

(King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)) KAUST shows a new statistical technique offers a better way to gauge the effectiveness of complex healthcare interventions.

A pivotal episode in the unfolding of the replication crisis

Axel Cleeremans writes: I appreciated your piece titled “What has happened down here is the winds have changed”. Your mini-history of what happened was truly enlightening — but you didn’t explicitly mention our failure to replicate Bargh’s slow walking effect. Show More Summary

No to inferential thresholds

Harry Crane points us to this new paper, “Why ‘Redefining Statistical Significance’ Will Not Improve Reproducibility and Could Make the Replication Crisis Worse,” and writes: Quick summary: Benjamin et al. claim that FPR would improve by factors greater than 2 and replication rates would double under their plan. Show More Summary

The latest on Mochizuki

Once in every six months there’s a flurry of online excitement about Mochizuki’s alleged proof of the abc-conjecture. It seems to be that time of the year again. The twitter-account of the ever optimistic @math_jin is probably the best source for (positive) news about IUT/ABC. He now announces the latest version of Yamashita’s ‘summary’ of […]

Spatial models for demographic trends?

Jon Minton writes: You may be interested in a commentary piece I wrote early this year, which was published recently in the International Journal of Epidemiology, where I discuss your work on identifying an aggregation bias in one of...Show More Summary

Bathroom, Mathroom

For World Toilet Day, an appreciation of the most mathematically interesting room in the house -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

Graphics software is not a tool that makes your graphs for you. Graphics software is a tool that allows you to make your graphs.

I had an email exchange with someone the other day. He had a paper with some graphs that I found hard to read, and he replied by telling me about the software he used to make the graphs. It was fine software, but the graphs were, nonetheless, unreadable. Show More Summary

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