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Chris Rock (3) vs. Thomas Hobbes; Wood advances

In yesterday‘s contest, there’s no doubt in my mind that Levi-Strauss would give a better and more interesting talk than Wood, whose lecture would presumably feature non-sequiturs, solecisms, continuity violations, and the like. ButShow More Summary

Another disgraced primatologist . . . this time featuring “sympathetic dentists”

Shravan Vasishth points us to this news item from Luke Harding, “History of modern man unravels as German scholar is exposed as fraud”: Other details of the professor’s life also appeared to crumble under scrutiny. Before he disappeared...Show More Summary

Claude Levi-Strauss (4) vs. Ed Wood (3); Cervantes wins

For yesterday we have a tough call, having to decide between two much-loved philosophical writers, as Jonathan put it in comments: Camus on ramdomness; how make a model when there is no signal — only noise. Cervantes on making the world fit the model through self-delusion. Show More Summary

Define first, prove later

This post by John Cook features a quote form a book “Calculus on Manifolds,” by Michael Spivak which I think was the textbook for a course I took in college where we learned how to prove Stokes’s theorem, which is something in multivariable...Show More Summary

Number of the Day: $1 Trillion

For the second time this month (at least), a Wall Street analyst has pegged Apple hitting the $1 trillion level in market capitalization. This time it was Cantor Fitzgerald, written up by the crew at Moneybeat. That about covers it.

Miguel de Cervantes (2) vs. Albert Camus (1); Twain wins

Yesterday‘s winner is Mark Twain because, as Anonymous demonstrated in the comments, Twain on Eddy is more interesting than Eddy on Eddy. Today’s third-round match pits an eternal classic vs. the coolest of the cool. P.S. As always, here’s the background, and here are the rules. The post Miguel de Cervantes (2) vs. Show More Summary

Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics?

Chess ratings are all about change. Did your rating go up, did it go down, have you reached 2000, who’s hot, who’s not, and so on. If nobody’s abilities were changing, chess ratings would be boring, they’d be nothing but a noisy measure,...Show More Summary

Excellent Numbers

Today’s exercise channels our inner Project Euler: An excellent number n has an even number of digits and, if you split the number into the front half a and the back half b, then b?2 ? a?2 = n. For example, 3468 = 682 ? 342 = 4624 ? 1156 = 3468, so 3468 is […]

Behind the Numbers: Lightning Strikes Thrice (and Then Again)

Most bowlers would be thrilled if the stars aligned just once and they rolled a 300 game. For Hakim Emmanuel of Stoughton, Mass., the stars aligned one Thursday in late February, when he rolled 12 strikes in a row during the first game in his doubles league at Westgate Lanes in Brockton, a Boston-area city. Then they aligned twice more for a perfect 900 series.

Round 3 begins! Mark Twain (4) vs. Mary Baker Eddy

After yesterday‘s John Waters victory, we’re now in the Round of 16: Thanks again to Paul Davidson for providing the bracket. Remaining are 4 authors, 3 comedians, 3 cult figures, 1 founder of religion, 2 French intellectuals, 2 philosophers, 1 religious leader, and 0 artists. Show More Summary

Paul Meehl continues to be the boss

Lee Sechrest writes: Here is a remarkable paper, not well known, by Paul Meehl. My research group is about to undertake a fresh discussion of it, which we do about every five or ten years. The paper is now more than a quarter of a century...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: Paul Meehl continues to be the boss Tues: Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics? Wed: Define first, prove later Thurs: Another disgraced primatologist... this time featuring “sympathetic dentists” Fri: Imagining p The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances

Not a lot of action on yesterday‘s post, so I don’t think the winner will advance any farther... But, in any case, I’ll call it for Carlin based on Jonathan’s amusing babble of postmodernist commentary. As for today: What can you say? A great pairing to close out the second round of […] The post Judy Garland (4) vs. Show More Summary

Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again)

A couple months ago we discussed this question from Sean de Hoon: In many cross-national comparative studies, mixed effects models are being used in which a number of slopes are fixed and the slopes of one or two variables of interested are allowed to vary across countries. Show More Summary

George Carlin (2) vs. Jacques Derrida; Updike advances

Yesterday‘s best comment comes from Zbicyclist, who wrote: My wife would prefer I not go to a talk by someone who wrote so extensively about adultery. But of course that would rule out both John Updike and Bertrand Russell. We could use “number of wives” as a tiebreaker, but instead I’ll go with Updike based […] The post George Carlin (2) vs. Show More Summary

“How the Internet Scooped Science (and What Science Still Has to Offer)”

Brian Silver pointed me to this post from Andrew Lindner: This week, my manuscript, co-authored by Melissa Lindquist and Julie Arnold, “Million Dollar Maybe? The Effect of Female Presence in Movies on Box Office Returns” was published online by Sociological Inquiry. Show More Summary

Behind the Numbers: The Math Behind PCE

When the U.S. Federal Reserve assesses the rate of inflation in the nation, it prefers to use something called the personal consumption expenditures price index. The PCE captures how changing prices influence consumer behavior.

John Updike vs. Bertrand Russell; Nietzsche advances

In yesterday‘s bout, another founder of religion falls, thanks to this comment by Zbicyclist: Do we want an audience full of would-be Ubermensches, or an audience of the proletariat? Considering Columbia is an Ivy League school, I guess we have to go with the Ubermensches. Show More Summary

Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures

Mollie Wood writes: I am a doctoral student in clinical and population health research. My dissertation research is on prenatal medication exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children, and I’ve encountered a difficult problem that I hope you might be able to advise me on. Show More Summary

Matrix Transpose

Transposing a matrix turns rows into columns and columns into rows; for instance the transpose of the matrix below left is the matrix below right: 11 12 13 14 11 21 31 21 22 23 24 12 22 32 31 32 33 34 13 23 33 14 24 34 That’s easy enough to do when […]

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