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Why experimental economics might well be doing better than psychology when it comes to replication

There’s a new paper, “Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics,” by Colin Camerer, Anna Dreber, Eskil Forsell, Teck-Hua Ho, Jürgen Huber, Magnus Johannesson, Michael Kirchler, Johan Almenberg, Adam Altmejd, Taizan...Show More Summary

Finite time blowup for Lagrangian modifications of the three-dimensional Euler equation

I’ve just posted to the arXiv my paper “Finite time blowup for Lagrangian modifications of the three-dimensional Euler equation“. This paper is loosely in the spirit of other recent papers of mine in which I explore how close one can get to supercritical PDE of physical interest (such as the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations), while […]

Broken broken windows policy?

A journalist pointed me to this recent report from the New York City Department of Investigation, which begins: Between 2010 and 2015, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) issued 1,839,414 “quality-of-life” summonses for offenses...Show More Summary

Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 18-20 July in NYC!

Jonah Gabry, Vince Dorie, and I are giving a 3-day short course in two weeks. Before class everyone should install R, RStudio and RStan on their computers. (If you already have these, please update to the latest version of R and theShow More Summary

Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect)

Retractions or corrections of published papers are rare. We routinely encounter articles with fatal flaws, but it is so rare that such articles are retracted that it’s news when it happens. Retractions sometimes happen at the request...Show More Summary

How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit?

Here’s a news item: Emboldened by Brexit, U.S. secessionists in Texas are keen to adopt the campaign tactics used to sway the British vote for leaving the European Union and are demanding “Texit” comes next.... “The Texas Nationalist...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? Tues: Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are,...Show More Summary

When are people gonna realize their studies are dead on arrival?

A comment at Thomas Lumley’s blog pointed me to this discussion by Terry Burnham with an interesting story of some flashy psychology research that failed to replicate. Here’s Burnham: [In his popular book, psychologist Daniel] Kahneman discussed an intriguing finding that people score higher on a test if the questions are hard to read. Show More Summary

Euro 2016 update

Big news out of Europe, everyone’s talking about soccer. Leo Egidi updated his model and now has predictions for the Round of 16: Here’s Leo’s report, and here’s his zipfile with data and Stan code. The report contains some ugly histograms showing the predictive distributions of goals to be scored in each game. Show More Summary

What they’re saying about “blended learning”: “Perhaps the most reasonable explanation is that no one watched the video or did the textbook reading . . .”

Someone writes in: I was wondering if you had a chance to see the commentary by the Stockwells on blended learning strategies that was recently published in Cell and which also received quite a nice write up by Columbia. It’s also currently featured on Columbia’s webpage. Show More Summary

Brexit polling: What went wrong?

Commenter numeric writes: Since you were shilling for yougov the other day you might want to talk about their big miss on Brexit (off by 6% from their eve-of-election poll–remain up 2 on their last poll and leave up by 4 as of this posting). Show More Summary

My talk tomorrow (Thurs) 10:30am at ICML in NYC

I’ll be speaking at the workshop on Data-Efficient Machine Learning. And here’s the schedule. I’ll be speaking on the following topic: Toward Routine Use of Informative Priors Bayesian statistics is typically performed using noninformative...Show More Summary

It comes down to reality and it’s fine with me cause I’ve let it slide

E. J. Wagenmakers pointed me to this recent article by Roy Baumeister, who writes: Patience and diligence may be rewarded, but competence may matter less than in the past. Getting a significant result with n = 10 often required having...Show More Summary

Time-reversal heuristic as randomization, and p < .05 as conflict of interest declaration

Alex Gamma writes: Reading your blog recently has inspired two ideas which have in common that they analogize statistical concepts with non-statistical ones related to science: The time-reversal heuristic as randomization: Pushing your idea further leads to the notion of randomization of the sequence of study “reporting”. Show More Summary

YouGov uses Mister P for Brexit poll

Ben Lauderdale and Doug Rivers give the story: There has been a lot of noise in polling on the upcoming EU referendum. Unlike the polls before the 2015 General Election, which were in almost perfect agreement (though, of course, not particularly close to the actual outcome), this time the polls are in serious disagreement. Show More Summary

Reduced-dimensionality parameterizations for linear models with interactions

After seeing this post by Matthew Wilson on a class of regression models called “factorization machines.” Aki writes: In a typical machine learning way, this is called “machine”, but it would be also a useful mode structure in Stan to make linear models with interactions, but with a reduced number of parameters. Show More Summary

Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected

Full story in the sister blog. Short story is that some economists did some out-of-control extrapolations. More of my recent sister blog entries here. The post Why I don’t believe the claim that Fox News can get Trump elected appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Clarke’s Law: Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud

The originals: Clarke’s first law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. Clarke’s second law:...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: Clarke’s Law: Any sufficiently crappy research is indistinguishable from fraud Tues: Reduced-dimensionality parameterizations for linear models with interactions Wed: Time-reversal heuristic as randomization, and p The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

How an academic urban legend can spread because of the difficulty of clear citation

Allan Dafoe writes: I just came across this article about academic urban legends spreading because of sloppy citation practices. I found it fascinating and relevant to the conversations on your blog. The article is by Ole Bjørn Rekdal and it is indeed fascinating. Show More Summary

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