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Study suggests you can 'pick up' a good or bad mood from your friends

(University of Warwick) New research suggests that both good and bad moods can be 'picked up' from friends, but depression can't.A team led by the University of Warwick has examined whether friends' moods can affect an individual therefore implying that moods may spread across friendship networks.

Using black-box machine learning predictions as inputs to a Bayesian analysis

Following up on this discussion [Designing an animal-like brain: black-box “deep learning algorithms” to solve problems, with an (approximately) Bayesian “consciousness” or “executive functioning organ” that attempts to make sense of...Show More Summary

p less than 0.00000000000000000000000000000000 . . . now that’s what I call evidence!

I read more carefully the news article linked to in the previous post, which describes a forking-pathed nightmare of a psychology study, the sort of thing that was routine practice back in 2010 or so but which we’ve mostly learned to at least try to avoid. Show More Summary

Stan Course in Newcastle, United Kingdom!

(this post is by Betancourt) The growth of Stan has afforded the core team many opportunities to give courses, to both industrial and academic audiences and at venues  across the world.  Regrettably we’re not always able to keep up with demand for new courses, especially outside of the United States, due to our already busy schedules. Show More Summary

Monk parakeets invade Mexico

(Santa Fe Institute) In a new paper published in PLOS ONE, researchers describe a recent, rapid, and ongoing invasion of monk parakeets in Mexico, and the regulatory changes that affected the species' spread.

Method to estimate abundance, trends in North Atlantic right whales confirms decline

(NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center) NOAA Fisheries researchers and colleagues at the New England Aquarium have developed a new model to improve estimates of abundance and population trends of endangered North Atlantic right whales, which have declined in numbers and productivity in recent years. Show More Summary

Mathematician and chronicler of political murders

(Technical University of Munich (TUM)) Emil J. Gumbel's formulas are fundamental for extreme value theory. This statistical discipline describes extreme incidents, such as floods or storms. Little is known, however, that he was also a pioneer of modern data journalism, unveiling the patterns of political murder in the Weimar Republic. Show More Summary

As if the 2010s never happened

E. J. writes: I’m sure I’m not the first to send you this beauty. Actually, E. J., you’re the only one who sent me this! It’s a news article, “Can the fear of death instantly make you a better athlete?”, reporting on a psychology experiment:...Show More Summary

Students' self-concepts of ability in math, reading predict later math, reading attainment

(Society for Research in Child Development) A new longitudinal study looked at how youths' self-concepts are linked to their actual academic achievement in math and reading from middle childhood to adolescence. The study found that students'...Show More Summary

Higher Structures in Lisbon – Part II

This is a summary of talks at the conference in Lisbon, continuing from the previous post. The ones I classified under “Field Theory” were a subjective choice, and the categories I list here are even more so, but I think they roughly summarize some of the big themes. I’m hoping to get back to posting […]

Gun laws requiring domestic abusers to surrender firearms could save lives

(Boston University School of Medicine) The mass shooting in Plano, Texas, this month was the deadliest of 2017. It also fit a pattern: The shooter had targeted his estranged wife and her friends and family -- and had a history of intimate partner violence (IPV).

Catching diversity of fish species means more stable income for fishers

(University of Washington) A team of scientists analyzed nearly 30 years of revenue and permitting records for individuals fishing in Alaskan waters and tracked how their fishing choices, in terms of permits purchased and species caught, influenced their year-to-year income volatility.

When radio galaxies collide, supermassive black holes form tightly bound pairs

(Rochester Institute of Technology) Supermassive black holes found in the centers of galaxies can form gravitationally bound pairs when galaxies merge, according to a study published in the Sept. 18 issue of Nature Astronomy.

MAA announces $150,000 to increase diversity in math

(Mathematical Association of America) The Mathematical Association of America, on behalf of the Tensor Foundation, awarded $159,700 in funding to 30 institutions supporting women and underrepresented groups in mathematics in 2017.

Maybe this paper is a parody, maybe it’s a semibluff

Peter DeScioli writes: I was wondering if you saw this paper about people reading Harry Potter and then disliking Trump, attached. It seems to fit the shark attack genre. In this case, the issue seems to be judging causation from multiple...Show More Summary

Where does the discussion go?

Jorge Cimentada writes: In this article, Yascha Mounk is saying that political scientists have failed to predict unexpected political changes such as the Trump nomination and the sudden growth of populism in Europe, because, he argues, of the way we’re testing hypotheses. Show More Summary

Extended StanCon 2018 Deadline!

(this post is by Betancourt) We received an ensemble of exciting submissions for StanCon2018, but some of our colleagues requested a little bit of extra time to put the finishing touches on their submissions.  Being the generous organizers that we are, we have decided to extend the submission deadline for everyone by two weeks. Show More Summary

Inverting the Schur complement, and large-dimensional Gelfand-Tsetlin patterns

Suppose we have an matrix that is expressed in block-matrix form as where is an matrix, is an matrix, is an matrix, and is a matrix for some. If is invertible, we can use the technique of Schur complementation to express the inverse of (if it exists) in terms of the inverse of, […]

Type M errors in the wild—really the wild!

Jeremy Fox points me to this article, “Underappreciated problems of low replication in ecological field studies,” by Nathan Lemoine, Ava Hoffman, Andrew Felton, Lauren Baur, Francis Chaves, Jesse Gray, Qiang Yu, and Melinda Smith, who...Show More Summary

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