I contacted Anna Dreber, one of the authors of the paper that failed to replicate power pose, and asked her about a particular question that came up regarding their replication study. One of the authors of the original power pose study...Show More Summary

We can break up any statistical problem into three steps: 1. Design and data collection. 2. Data analysis. 3. Decision making. It’s well known that step 1 typically requires some thought of steps 2 and 3: It is only when you have a sense...Show More Summary

Wilson's theorem is why we can't have nice things -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

Frank Harrell, author of an influential book on regression modeling and currently both a biostatistics professor and a statistician at the Food and Drug Administration, has started a blog. He sums up “some of his personal philosophyShow More Summary

Several years ago I learned that the incumbency advantage in India was negative! There, the politicians are so unpopular that when they run for reelection they’re actually at a disadvantage, on average, compared to fresh candidates. At least, that’s what I heard. Show More Summary

As a surprise welcome to 2017, our paper on how the Stan language works along with an overview of how the MCMC and optimization algorithms work hit the stands this week. Bob Carpenter, Andrew Gelman, Matthew D. Hoffman, Daniel Lee, Ben Goodrich, Michael Betancourt, Marcus Brubaker, Jiqiang Guo, Peter Li, and Allen Riddell. Show More Summary

Kevin Lewis points us to this interesting paper by Jacob Westfall and Tal Yarkoni entitled, “Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think.” Westfall and Yarkoni write: A common goal of statistical analysis...Show More Summary

(PLOS) To find an effective vaccine against malaria it is crucial to test candidate vaccines on larger groups of people than previously thought -- according to a new study published in PLOS Computational Biology. The researchers from...Show More Summary

Michael Betancourt writes: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has proven a remarkable empirical success, but only recently have we begun to develop a rigorous understanding of why it performs so well on difficult problems and how it is best applied in practice. Show More Summary

Benjamin Kirkup writes: As you sometimes comment on such things; I’m forwarding you a journal editorial (in a society journal) that presents “lessons learned” from an associated research study. What caught my attention was the comment...Show More Summary

Priors are important in Bayesian inference. Some would even say : ” In Bayesian inference you can—OK, you must—assign a prior distribution representing the set of values the coefficient [i.e any unknown parameter] can be.” Although priors...Show More Summary

The first Stan Conference is next Saturday, January 21, 2017! If you haven’t registered, here’s the link: https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com I wouldn’t wait until the last minute — we might sell out before you’re able to grab a ticket. Show More Summary

Jonathan Stray writes: I read your “when do stories work” paper (with Thomas Basbøll) with interest—as a journalist stories are of course central to my field. I wondered if you had encountered the “process tracing” literature in political...Show More Summary

Over on the Stan users mailing list I (Jonah) recently posted about our new document providing guidelines for developing R packages interfacing with Stan. As I say in the post and guidelines, we (the Stan team) are excited to see the emergence of some very cool packages developed by our users. Show More Summary

I’ve just uploaded to the arXiv my paper “Some remarks on the lonely runner conjecture“, submitted to Contributions to discrete mathematics. I had blogged about the lonely runner conjecture in this previous blog post, and I returned to the problem recently to see if I could obtain anything further. The results obtained were more modest […]

Ryan Giordano, Tamara Broderick, and Michael Jordan write: In Bayesian analysis, the posterior follows from the data and a choice of a prior and a likelihood. One hopes that the posterior is robust to reasonable variation in the choice of prior, since this choice is made by the modeler and is often somewhat subjective. Show More Summary

Joachim Kock and I are teaching category theory in Barcelona. We like slogans.

In 2010, I wrote: As a statistician, I was trained to think of randomized experimentation as representing the gold standard of knowledge in the social sciences, and, despite having seen occasional arguments to the contrary, I still hold...Show More Summary

The post Time Inc. stoops to the level of the American Society of Human Genetics and PPNAS? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Introduction Gabriel Gonzalez has written quite a bit about the practical applications of free monads. And "haoformayor" wrote a great stackoverflow post on how arrows are related to strong profunctors. So I thought I'd combine these and apply them to arrows built from profunctors: free arrows. Show More Summary

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