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The Man Who Knew Infinity

I generally avoid movies about mathematicians, or mathematics.I didn't watch Beautiful Mind, or even the Imitation game. Often, popular depiction of mathematics and mathematicians runs as far away from the actual mathematics as possible,...Show More Summary

Stan on the beach

This came in the email one day: We have used the great software Stan to estimate bycatch levels of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Bay of Biscay from stranding data. We found that official estimates are underestimated by a full order of magnitude. Show More Summary

When doing causal inference, define your treatment decision and then consider the consequences that flow from it

Danielle Fumia writes: I am a research at the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, and I work on research estimating the effect of college attendance on earnings. Many studies that examine the effect of attending college on earnings control for college degree receipt and work experience. Show More Summary

“99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P < 0.05.”

Gur Huberman pointed me to this paper by Tamar Kricheli-Katz and Tali Regev, “How many cents on the dollar? Women and men in product markets.” It appeared in something called ScienceAdvances, which seems to be some extension of the Science...Show More Summary

Good News

Good news about three former students.

The difference between “significant” and “not significant” is not itself statistically significant: Education edition

In a news article entitled “Why smart kids shouldn’t use laptops in class,” Jeff Guo writes: For the past 15 years, educators have debated, exhaustively, the perils of laptops in the lecture hall.... Now there is an answer, thanks to...Show More Summary

Annals of really pitiful spammers

Here it is: On May 18, 2016, at 8:38 AM, wrote: Dr. Gelman, I hope all is well. I looked at your paper on [COMPANY] and would be very interested in talking about having a short followup or a review article about this published in the next issue of the Medical Research Archives. Show More Summary

Here’s something I know nothing about

Paul Campos writes: Does it seem at all plausible that, as per the CDC, rates of smoking among people with GED certificates are double those among high school dropouts and high school graduates? My reply: It does seem a bit odd, but I don’t know who gets GED’s. Show More Summary

Albedo-boy is back!

New story here. Background here and here. The post Albedo-boy is back! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“Lots of hype around pea milk, with little actual scrutiny”

Paul Alper writes: Had no idea that “Pea Milk” existed, let alone controversial. Learn something new every day. Indeed, I’d never heard of it either. I guess “milk” is now a generic word for any white sugary drink? Sort of like “tea”...Show More Summary

Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov?

The tech zillionaire and the chess champion were always a bit of an odd couple, and I’ve felt for awhile that it was just as well that they never finished that book they were talking about. But given that each of them has taken a second...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov? Tues: Here’s something I know nothing about Wed: The “power pose” of the 6th century B.C. Thurs: “99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Now that’s what I call a power pose!

John writes: See below for your humour file or blogging on a quiet day.... Perhaps you could start a competition for the wackiest real-life mangling of statistical concepts (restricted to a genuine academic setting?). On 15 Feb 2016,...Show More Summary

“Stop the Polling Insanity”

Norman Ornstein and Alan Abramowitz warn against over-interpreting poll fluctuations: In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Show More Summary

Castles in the Air

Some thoughts on the value of nonrigorous mathematics.

Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump

Just following up on our post the other day on retrospective evaluations of probabilistic predictions: For more on Leicester City, see Nick Goff on Why did bookmakers lose on Leicester? and What price SHOULD Leicester have been? (forwarded to me by commenter Iggy). Show More Summary

Will transparency damage science?

Jonathan Sterne sent me this opinion piece by Stephan Lewandowsky and Dorothy Bishop, two psychology researchers who express concern that the movement for science and data transparency has been abused. It would be easy for me to dismiss...Show More Summary

Bias against women in academia

I’m not the best one to write about this: to the extent that there’s bias in favor of men, I’ve been a beneficiary. Also I’m not familiar with the research on the topic. I know there are some statistical difficulties in setting up these...Show More Summary

Birthday analysis—Friday the 13th update, and some model checking

Carl Bialik and Andrew Flowers at fivethirtyeight.com (Nate Silver’s site) ran a story following up on our birthdays example—that time series decomposition of births by day, which is on the cover of the third edition of Bayesian Data Analysis using data from 1968-1988, and which then Aki redid using a new dataset from 2000-2014. Show More Summary

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