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Behind The Numbers: Love and Credit

A trio of researchers examined the credit histories of 12 million U.S. consumers, identified romantic partners and then tracked their unions and breakups over a 15-year period. Their conclusion: people with higher credit scores are more likely to form committed relationships and stay with a partner longer.

“Priming Effects Replicate Just Fine, Thanks”

I came across this 2012 post by John Bargh who does not seem to be happy about the failures of direct replications of his much-cited elderly-words-and-slow-walking study. What strikes me about Bargh’s comments is how they illustrate the moving-target approach to much of science. Show More Summary

Arrow’s Theorem in the news: Sleazy-ass political scientists cut-and-paste their way to 3 publications from the same material

I’m posting this one in the evening because I know some people just hate when I write about plagiarism. But this one is so ridiculous I had to share it with you. John Smith (or maybe I should say “John Smith”?) writes: Today on a political...Show More Summary

In general, hypothesis testing is overrated and hypothesis generation is underrated, so it’s fine for these data to be collected with exploration in mind.

In preparation for writing this news article, Kelly Servick asked me what I thought about the Kavli HUMAN Project (see here and here). Here’s what I wrote: The general idea of gathering comprehensive data seems reasonable to me. I’ve often made the point that careful data collection and measurement are important. Show More Summary

Teaching a process versus transmitting knowledge

Ta-Nehisi Coates is forced to state who he's voting for in the next election. He struggles with the act of providing an answer, becauseDespite my very obvious political biases, I’ve never felt it was really my job to get people to agree with me. Show More Summary

Scientific explanation of Panther defeat!

Roy’s comment on our recent post inspires me to reveal the true explanation underlying the Carolina team’s shocking Super Bowl loss. The Panthers were primed during the previous week with elderly-themed words such as “bingo” and “Manning.”...Show More Summary

Stan’s Super Bowl prediction: Broncos 24, Panthers 13

We ran the data through our model, not just the data from the past season but from the past 17 seasons (that’s what we could easily access) with a Gaussian process model to allow team abilities to vary over time. Because we’re modeling...Show More Summary

Phd positions in Probabilistic Machine Learning at #AaltoPML group Finland

There are PhD positions in our Probabilistic Machine Learning group at Aalto, Finland, and altogether 15 positions in Helsinki ICT network. Apply here The most interesting topic in the call is supervised by Prof. Samuel Kaski at AaltoPML...Show More Summary

Primed to lose

David Hogg points me to a recent paper, “A Social Priming Data Set With Troubling Oddities” by Hal Pashler, Doug Rohrer, Ian Abramson, Tanya Wolfson, and Christine Harris, which begins: Chatterjee, Rose, and Sinha (2013) presented results...Show More Summary

Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips

Bill Harris writes: I know you’re on a blog delay, but I’d like to vote to raise the odds that my question in a comment to http://andrewgelman.com/2015/09/15/even-though-its-published-in-a-top-psychology-journal-she-still-doesnt-believe-it/gets discussed, in case it’s not in your queue. Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips Tues: Primed to lose Wed: Point summary of posterior simulations? Thurs: In general, hypothesis testing is overrated and hypothesis generation is underrated, so it’s fine for these data to be collected with exploration in mind. Show More Summary

Who owns a review, and who's having the conversation ?

I had floated a trial balloon (this is election season after all!) about making reviews of my papers public. I had originally thought that my coauthors would object to this plan, for fear of retribution from reviewers, or feelings of...Show More Summary

You’ll never guess what I say when I have nothing to say

A reporter writes: I’m a reporter working on a story... and I was wondering if you could help me out by taking a quick look at the stats in the paper it’s based on. The paper is about paedophiles being more likely to have minor facial...Show More Summary

What’s the difference between randomness and uncertainty?

Julia Galef mentioned “meta-uncertainty,” and how to characterize the difference between a 50% credence about a coin flip coming up heads, vs. a 50% credence about something like advanced AI being invented this century. I wrote: Yes, I’ve written about this probability thing. Show More Summary

ITA FTW: Bayesian surprise and eigenvectors in your meal.

I've been lounging in San Diego at my favorite conference, the Information Theory and Applications workshop. It's so friendly that even the sea lions are invited (the Marine Room is where we had the conference banquet).Sadly this year...Show More Summary

The bejeezus

Tova Perlmutter writes of a recent online exchange: Person A posted: In light of the Iowa caucuses today, something really bothered me on the news last night. A woman was interviewed, and she said that she supported Trump because, and...Show More Summary

Stat Podcast Plan

In my course on Statistical Communication and Graphics, each class had a special guest star who would answer questions on his or her area of expertise. These were not “guest lectures”—there were specific things I wanted the studentsShow More Summary

Making all my reviews public (and annotated): A question.

I was reading a post on G+ about a musician who keeps all her performance reviews on her website and annotates them with a response. Not to "fight back", but to add to the reviews (that are occasionally negative).I'm very tempted to do the same thing myself with my submissions. Show More Summary

The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems

Alain Content writes: I am a psycholinguist who teaches statistics (and also sometimes publishes in Psych Sci). I am writing because as I am preparing for some future lessons, I fall back on a very basic question which has been worrying me for some time, related to the reasoning underlying NHST [null hypothesis significance testing]. Show More Summary

“Chatting with the Tea Party”

I got an email last month offering two free tickets to the preview of a new play, Chatting with the Tea Party, described as “a documentary-style play about a New York playwright’s year attending Tea Party meetings around the country and interviewing local leaders. Show More Summary

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