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Stan Weekly Roundup, 21 July 2017

It was another productive week in Stan land. The big news is that Jonathan Auerbach reports that A team of Columbia students (mostly Andrew’s, including myself) recently won first place in a competition predicting elementary school enrollment. Show More Summary

“Bayes factor”: where the term came from, and some references to why I generally hate it

Someone asked: Do you know when this term was coined or by whom? Kass and Raftery’s use of the tem as the title of their 1995 paper suggests that it was still novel then, but I have not noticed in the paper any information about where it started. Show More Summary

Google searches can be used to track dengue in underdeveloped countries

(PLOS) An analytical tool that combines Google search data with government-provided clinical data can quickly and accurately track dengue fever in less-developed countries, according to new research published in PLOS Computational Biology by Shihao Yang of Harvard University and colleagues.

How does a Nobel-prize-winning economist become a victim of bog-standard selection bias?

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes in with a story: Linking to a new paper by Jorge Luis García, James J. Heckman, and Anna L. Ziff, an economist Sue Dynarski makes this “joke” on facebook—or maybe it’s not a joke: How does...Show More Summary

Make Your Plans for Stans (-s + Con)

This post is by Mike A friendly reminder that registration is open for StanCon 2018, which will take place over three days, from Wednesday January 10, 2018 to Friday January 12, 2018, at the beautiful Asilomar Conference Grounds in Pacific Grove, California. Show More Summary

Researchers find path to discovering new topological materials

(Princeton University) Researchers have found a recipe for discovering new topological materials, which have exotic electronic properties that hold promise for future technologies. Until now, finding these materials has been a matter of trial and error.

New study provides BRCA mutation carriers guidance for when surgery has greatest impact

(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences) Of the women who carry the mutated BRCA1/2 genes, 45-65 percent will develop breast cancer, and 15-39 percent will develop ovarian cancer. Many women elect to undergo preventive surgeries that can significantly increase life expectancy, but can impact later fertility. Show More Summary

Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 23-25 Aug in NYC!

Jonah “ShinyStan” Gabry, Mike “Riemannian NUTS” Betancourt, and I will be giving a three-day short course next month in New York, following the model of our successful courses in 2015 and 2016. Before class everyone should install R, RStudio and RStan on their computers. Show More Summary

His concern is that the authors don’t control for the position of games within a season.

Chris Glynn wrote last year: I read your blog post about middle brow literature and PPNAS the other day. Today, a friend forwarded me this article in The Atlantic that (in my opinion) is another example of what you’ve recently been talking about. Show More Summary

Matrix Algebra

Lectures on Matrix Algebra, last update 19 July 2017, 09:56.

What is the comprehension construction?

This post explains the meaning of "the comprehension construction," the title of a recent paper by Riehl and Verity (

Analytic technique could allow neural networks to run on cellphones

(Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Method for modeling neural networks' power consumption could help make the systems portable.

Moonshine for everyone

Today, Samuel Dehority, Xavier Gonzalez, Neekon Vafa and Roger Van Peski arXived their paper Moonshine for all finite groups. Originally, Moonshine was thought to be connected to the Monster group. McKay and Thompson observed that the first coefficients of the normalized elliptic modular invariant \[ J(\tau) = q^{-1} + 196884 q + 21493760 q^2 +... Continue reading ?

Animating a spinner using ggplot2 and ImageMagick

It’s Sunday, and I [Bob] am just sitting on the couch peacefully ggplotting to illustrate basic sample spaces using spinners (a trick I’m borrowing from Jim Albert’s book Curve Ball). There’s an underlying continuous outcome (i.e., where...Show More Summary

APS and IOP Publishing commit to ORCID scheme for unambiguously identifying contributors

(American Physical Society) The American Physical Society and IOP Publishing commit to collecting ORCID iDs for authors submitting to their journals following stated best practices.

“The ‘Will & Grace’ Conjecture That Won’t Die” and other stories from the blogroll

From sociologist Jay Livingston: The “Will & Grace” Conjecture That Won’t Die From sociologist David Weakliem: Why does Trump try to implement the unpopular ideas he’s proposed, and not the popular ideas? History professor who wroteShow More Summary

The UN actually does prevent war, according to study of General Assembly votes

(Dartmouth College) The first quantitative study of UN voting records shows that the world body is more effective at achieving its mandate of avoiding wars than many experts think.

Improving care of patients with traumatic brain injury in low- and middle-income countries

(University of Cambridge) A new research group focused on improving the care of patients with traumatic brain injury in low- and middle-income countries has been established at the University of Cambridge.

How to design future studies of systemic exercise intolerance disease (chronic fatigue syndrome)?

Someone named Ramsey writes on behalf of a self-managed support community of 100+ systemic exercise intolerance disease (SEID) patients. He read my recent article on the topic and had a question regarding the following excerpt: For conditions...Show More Summary

Should we continue not to trust the Turk? Another reminder of the importance of measurement

From 2013: Don’t trust the Turk From 2017 (link from Kevin Lewis), from Jesse Chandler and Gabriele Paolacci: The Internet has enabled recruitment of large samples with specific characteristics. However, when researchers rely on participant self-report to determine eligibility, data quality depends on participant honesty. Show More Summary

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