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Evaluating election forecasts

Nadia Hassan writes: Nate Silver did a review of pre-election predictions from forecasting models in 2012. The overall results were not great, but many scholars noted that some models seemed to do quite well. You mentioned that you were interested in how top-notch models fare. Show More Summary

Birthdays and heat waves

I mentioned the birthdays example in a talk the other day, and Hal Varian pointed me to some research by David Lam and Jeffrey Miron, papers from the 1990s with titles like Seasonality of Births in Human Populations, The Effect of Temperature on Human Fertility, and Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births. Show More Summary

Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally? Copyright and licensing basics for open-source

I am not a lawyer (“IANAL” in web-speak); but even if I were, you should take this with a grain of salt (same way you take everything you hear from anyone). If you want the straight dope for U.S. law, see the U.S. government Copyright FAQ; it’s surprisingly clear for government legalese. Show More Summary

Oooh, it burns me up

If any of you are members of the Marketing Research Association, could you please contact them and ask them to change their position on this issue: I have a feeling they won’t mind if you call them at home. With an autodialer. “Pollsters now must hand-dial cellphones, at great expense,” indeed. Show More Summary

Topological Crystals (Part 4)

Finally, a gallery of examples of topological crystals!

Better to just not see the sausage get made

Mike Carniello writes: This article in the NYT leads to the full text, in which these statement are buried (no pun intended): What is the probability that two given texts were written by the same author? This was achieved by posing an...Show More Summary

Congrats to John Moeller, Ph.D

My student +John Moeller ( just defended his Ph.D thesis today! and yes, there was a (rubber) snake-fighting element to the defense.John's dissertation work is in machine learning, but his publications span a wider range....Show More Summary

Jobs at Heriot-Watt

Permanent positions are available at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.

An erratum to “Global regularity of wave maps. II. Small energy in two dimensions”

Fifteen years ago, I wrote a paper entitled Global regularity of wave maps. II. Small energy in two dimensions, in which I established global regularity of wave maps from two spatial dimensions to the unit sphere, assuming that the initial data had small energy. Recently, Hao Jia (personal communication) discovered a small gap in the […]

Letters we never finished reading

I got a book in the mail attached to some publicity material that began: Over the last several years, a different kind of science book has found a home on consumer bookshelves. Anchored by meticulous research and impeccable credentials,...Show More Summary

Monoidal Categories with Projections

A defence of the technical-sounding concept of "semicartesian monoidal category".

Free workshop on Stan for pharmacometrics (Paris, 22 September 2016); preceded by (non-free) three day course on Stan for pharmacometrics

So much for one post a day… Workshop: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day If you are interested in a free day of Stan for pharmacometrics in Paris on 22 September 2016, see the registration page: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day (free workshop)...Show More Summary

A day in the life

I like to post approx one item per day on this blog, so when multiple things come up in the same day, I worry about the sustainability of all this. I suppose I could up the posting rate to 2 a day but I think that could be too much of a burden on the […] The post A day in the life appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Notes on the “slice rank” of tensors

[This blog post was written jointly by Terry Tao and Will Sawin.] In the previous blog post, one of us (Terry) implicitly introduced a notion of rank for tensors which is a little different from the usual notion of tensor rank, and which (following BCCGNSU) we will call “slice rank”. This notion of rank could […]

Hey pollsters! Poststratify on party ID, or we’re all gonna have to do it for you.

Alan Abramowitz writes: In five days, Clinton’s lead increased from 5 points to 12 points. And Democratic party ID margin increased from 3 points to 10 points. No, I don’t think millions of voters switched to the Democratic party. I think Democrats are were just more likely to respond in that second poll. Show More Summary

His varying slopes don’t seem to follow a normal distribution

Bruce Doré writes: I have a question about multilevel modeling I’m hoping you can help with. What should one do when random effects coefficients are clearly not normally distributed (i.e., coef(lmer(y~x+(x|id))) )? Is this a sign that...Show More Summary

Postdoc in Finland with Aki

I’m looking for a postdoc to work with me at Aalto University, Finland. The person hired will participate in research on Gaussian processes, functional constraints, big data, approximative Bayesian inference, model selection and assessment, deep learning, and survival analysis models (e.g. Show More Summary

Balancing bias and variance in the design of behavioral studies: The importance of careful measurement in randomized experiments

At Bank Underground: When studying the effects of interventions on individual behavior, the experimental research template is typically: Gather a bunch of people who are willing to participate in an experiment, randomly divide them into two groups, assign one treatment to group A and the other to group B, then measure the outcomes. Show More Summary

Evil collaboration between Medtronic and FDA

Paul Alper points us to this news article by Jim Spencer and Joe Carlson that has this amazing bit: Medtronic ran a retrospective study of 3,647 Infuse patients from 2006-2008 but shut it down without reporting more than 1,000 “adverse events” to the government within 30 days, as the law required. Show More Summary

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