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No tradeoff between regularization and discovery

We had a couple recent discussions regarding questionable claims based on p-values extracted from forking paths, and in both cases (a study “trying large numbers of combinations of otherwise-unused drugs against a large number of untreatable...Show More Summary

Death by a thousand cuts? Not for small populations

(Michigan State University) In a paper published in Nature Communications, Christoph Adami, professor of microbiology and molecular genetics, and graduate student Thomas LaBar have provided a look at how certain species survive by evolving a greater ability to weed out harmful mutations -- a new concept called 'drift robustness'.

From perpetual motion machines to embodied cognition: The boundaries of pseudoscience are being pushed back into the trivial.

This exchange came from a comment thread last year. Diana Senechal points to this bizarre thing: Brian Little says in Me, Myself, and Us (regarding the “lemon introvert test”): One of the more interesting ways of informally assessing extraversion at the biogenic level is to do the lemon-drop test. Show More Summary

Household Chores for Mathematicians

Need a babysitter? Ask a combinatorialist. Baseboards dirty? A number theorist won't mind cleaning them. And other highly scientific recommendations for mathematicians to handle the housework -- Read more on

Heat flow and zeroes of polynomials

Let be a monic polynomial of degree with complex coefficients. Then by the fundamental theorem of arithmetic, we can factor as for some complex zeroes (possibly with repetition). Now suppose we evolve with respect to time by heat flow, creating a function of two variables for which On the space of polynomials of degree at […]

RIT hosts Hockey Analytics Conference Oct. 21

(Rochester Institute of Technology) The latest research in analytics for college and professional hockey -- and for sports in general -- will be explored at the third annual Rochester Institute of Technology Hockey Analytics Confere...

Analyzing New Zealand fatal traffic crashes in Stan with added open-access science

Open-access science I’ll get to the meat of this post in a second, but I just wanted to highlight how the study I’m about to talk about was done in the open and how that helped everyone. Tim Makarios read the study and responded in the blog comments, Hold on. Show More Summary

Assessment shows metagenomics software has much room for improvement

(Oregon State University) A recent critical assessment of software tools represents a key step toward taming the 'Wild West' nature of the burgeoning field of metagenomics.

Beyond forking paths: using multilevel modeling to figure out what can be learned from this survey experiment

Under the heading, “Incompetent leaders as a protection against elite betrayal,” Tyler Cowen linked to this paper, “Populism and the Return of the ‘Paranoid Style’: Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal,” by Rafael Di Tella and Julio Rotemberg. Show More Summary

Shaping animal, vegetable and mineral

(Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences) Harvard researchers demonstrate a technique to grow any target shape from any starting shape.

Baseball, apple pie, and Stan

Ben sends along these two baseball job ads that mention experience with Stan as a preferred qualification: St. Louis Cardinals Baseball Development Analyst Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Research and Development Analyst The post Baseball, apple pie, and Stan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Freelance orphans: “33 comparisons, 4 are statistically significant: much more than the 1.65 that would be expected by chance alone, so what’s the problem??”

From someone who would prefer to remain anonymous: As you may know, the relatively recent “orphan drug” laws allow (basically) companies that can prove an off-patent drug treats an otherwise untreatable illness, to obtain intellectual property protection for otherwise generic or dead drugs. Show More Summary

Stan case studies

Following up on recent posts here and here, I thought I’d post a list of all the Stan case studies we have so far. 2017: Modeling Loss Curves in Insurance with RStan, by Mick Cooney Splines in Stan, by Milad Kharratzadeh Spatial Models...Show More Summary

“Bayesian evidence synthesis”

Donny Williams writes: My colleagues and I have a paper recently accepted in the journal Psychological Science in which we “bang” on Bayes factors. We explicitly show how the Bayes factor varies according to tau (I thought you might find this interesting for yourself and your blog’s readers). Show More Summary

A tail we don't need to wag

Introduction I've been reading a little about concentration inequalities recently. I thought it would be nice to see if you can use the key idea, if not the actual theorems, to reduce the complexity of computing the probability distribution of the outcome of stochastic simulations. Show More Summary

Mick Cooney: case study on modeling loss curves in insurance with RStan

This is great. Thanks, Mick! All the Stan case studies are here. The post Mick Cooney: case study on modeling loss curves in insurance with RStan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“congratulations, your article is published!” Ummm . . .

The following came in the email under the heading, “congratulations, your article is published!”: I don’t know that I should be congratulated on correcting an error, but sure, whatever. P.S. The above cat is adorably looking out and will notice all of your errors. The post “congratulations, your article is published!” Ummm... Show More Summary

When do we want evidence-based change? Not “after peer review”

Jonathan Falk sent me the above image in an email with subject line, “If this isn’t the picture for some future blog entry I’ll never forgive you.” This was a credible threat so here’s the post. But I don’t agree with that placard at...Show More Summary

Postdoc in Finland and NY to work on Stan!

I (Aki) got 2 year funding to hire a postdoc to work on validation of probabilistic inference approaches and model selection in Stan. Work would be done with Stan team in Aalto, Helsinki and Columbia, New York. We probably have PhD positions, too. Show More Summary

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