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Hey—here’s the title of my talk for this year’s New York R conference

Toward a Fuller Integration of Graphics in Statistical Analysis The talk will be 20 Apr 2018 at 1:25pm. And here are some things to read ahead of time, if you’re interested: [2003] A Bayesian formulation of exploratory data analysis and goodness-of-fit testing. Show More Summary

A Categorical Semantics for Causal Structure

This is the first blog entry as part of the online reading seminar associated to Applied Category Theory 2018.

Double blind review: continuing the discussion

My first two posts on double blind review triggered good discussion by Michael Mitzenmacher and Boaz Barak (see the comments on these posts for more). I thought I'd try to synthesize what I took away from the posts and how my own thinking...Show More Summary

Big energy savings: OSU researchers build the world's smallest electro-optic modulator

(Oregon State University) Researchers at have designed and fabricated the world's smallest electro-optic modulator, which could mean major reductions in energy used by data centers and supercomputers.

Artificial intelligence predicts corruption

(FECYT - Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology) Researchers from the University of Valladolid (Spain) have created a computer model based on neural networks which provides in which Spanish provinces cases of corruption can appear with greater probability, as well as the conditions that favor their appearance. Show More Summary

Big Data Needs Big Model

Big Data are messy data, available data not random samples, observational data not experiments, available data not measurements of underlying constructs of interest. To make relevant inferences from big data, we need to extrapolate from sample to population, from control to treatment group, and from measurements to latent variables. Show More Summary

Knights and Knaves, the Heyting way

(image credit: Joe Blitzstein via Twitter) Smullyan’s Knights and Knaves problems are classics. On an island all inhabitants are either Knights (who only tell true things) and Knaves (who always lie). You have to determine their nature from a few statements. Here’s a very simple problem: “Abercrombie met just two inhabitants, A and B. A […]

How smartly.io productized Bayesian revenue estimation with Stan

Markus Ojala writes: Bayesian modeling is becoming mainstream in many application areas. Applying it needs still a lot of knowledge about distributions and modeling techniques but the recent development in probabilistic programming languages have made it much more tractable. Show More Summary

a SNORTgo endgame

SNORT, invented by Simon NORTon is a map-coloring game, similar to COL. Only, this time, neighbours may not be coloured differently. SNORTgo, similar to COLgo, is SNORT played with go-stones on a go-board. That is, adjacent stones must have the same colour. SNORT is a ‘hot’ game, meaning that each player is eager to move […]

Lehmer pairs and GUE

In this post we assume the Riemann hypothesis and the simplicity of zeroes, thus the zeroes of in the critical strip take the form for some real number ordinates. From the Riemann-von Mangoldt formula, one has the asymptotic as ; in particular, the spacing should behave like on the average. However, it can happen […]

How to get a sense of Type M and type S errors in neonatology, where trials are often very small? Try fake-data simulation!

Tim Disher read my paper with John Carlin, “Beyond Power Calculations: Assessing Type S (Sign) and Type M (Magnitude) Errors,” and followed up with a question: I am a doctoral student conducting research within the field of neonatology,...Show More Summary

a non-commutative Jack Daniels problem

At a seminar at the College de France in 1975, Tits wrote down the order of the monster group \[ \# \mathbb{M} = 2^{46}.3^{20}.5^9.7^6.11^2.13^3.17·19·23·29·31·41·47·59·71 \] Andrew Ogg, who attended the talk, noticed that the primeShow More Summary

The Trumpets of Lilliput

Gur Huberman pointed me to this paper by George Akerlof and Pascal Michaillat that gives an institutional model for the persistence of false belief. The article begins: This paper develops a theory of promotion based on evaluations by the already promoted. Show More Summary

A lesson from the Charles Armstrong plagiarism scandal: Separation of the judicial and the executive functions

Charles Armstrong is a history professor at Columbia University who, so I’ve heard, has plagiarized and faked references for an award-winning book about Korean history. The violations of the rules of scholarship were so bad that theShow More Summary

The De Bruijn-Newman constant is non-negative

Brad Rodgers and I have uploaded to the arXiv its paper “The De Bruijn-Newman constant is non-negative“. This paper affirms a conjecture of Newman regarding to the extent to which the Riemann hypothesis, if true, is only “barely so”. To describe the conjecture, let us begin with the Riemann xi function where is the Gamma […]

the monstrous moonshine picture – 2

Time to wrap up my calculations on the moonshine picture, which is the subgraph of Conway’s Big Picture needed to describe all 171 moonshine groups. No doubt I’ve made mistakes. All corrections are welcome. The starting point is the list of 171 moonshine groups which are in the original Monstrous Moonshine paper. The backbone is […]

The difference between me and you is that I’m not on fire

“Eat what you are while you’re falling apart and it opened a can of worms. The gun’s in my hand and I know it looks bad, but believe me I’m innocent.” – Mclusky While the next episode of Madam Secretary buffers on terrible hotel internet,...Show More Summary

Challenges and research for an evolving aviation system

(National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine) A comprehensive aviation safety system as envisioned by NASA would require integration of a wide range of systems and practices, including building an in-time aviation safety...Show More Summary

Algorithm improves integration of refugees

(Stanford University) A new machine learning algorithm developed by Stanford researchers could help governments and resettlement agencies find the best places for refugees to relocate, depending on their particular skills and backgrounds.

We were measuring the speed of Stan incorrectly—it’s faster than we thought in some cases due to antithetical sampling

Aki points out that in cases of antithetical sampling, our effective sample size calculations were unduly truncated above at the number of iterations. It turns out the effective sample size can be greater than the number of iterations if the draws are anticorrelated. Show More Summary

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