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ASU scientist finds advanced geometry no secret to prehistoric architects in US Southwest

(Arizona State University) New research by ASU scientists reveals that the prehistoric Pueblo people of the American Southwest, despite not having a written language or number system, created architectural complexes using advanced geometry -- with incredible mathematical accuracy.

If I had a long enough blog delay, I could just schedule this one for 1 Jan 2026

Gaurav Sood points us to this post, “Why did so many Japanese families avoid having children in 1966?”, by Randy Olson, which includes the excellent graph above and the following explanation: The Japanese use [an]... astrological system... Show More Summary

Survey: Most women don't know age heart screenings should begin

(MediaSource) When should women start getting heart screenings? A new national survey by Orlando Health shows most women wait way too late.

George Orwell on “alternative facts”

Paul Alper points me to this quote from George Orwell’s 1943 essay, Looking Back on the Spanish War: I know it is the fashion to say that most of recorded history is lies anyway. I am willing to believe that history is for the most part...Show More Summary

Quantifying uncertainty in identification assumptions—this is important!

Luis Guirola writes: I’m a poli sci student currently working on methods. I’ve seen you sometimes address questions in your blog, so here is one in case you wanted. I recently read some of Chuck Manski book “Identification for decision and prediction”. Show More Summary

Is the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex “selective for pain”?

Peter Clayson writes: I have spent much of the last 6 months or so of my life trying to learn Bayesian statistics on my own. It’s been a difficult, yet rewarding experience. I have a question about a research debate that is going on my field. Show More Summary

Stan Conference Live Stream

StanCon 2017 is tomorrow! Late registration ends in an hour. After that, all tickets are $400. We’re going to be live streaming the conference. You’ll find the stream as a YouTube Live event from 8:45 am to 6 pm ET (and whatever gets...Show More Summary

Looking for rigor in all the wrong places

My talk in the upcoming conference on Inference from Non Probability Samples, 16-17 Mar in Paris: Looking for rigor in all the wrong places What do the following ideas and practices have in common: unbiased estimation, statistical significance,...Show More Summary

Alternatives to jail for scientific fraud

Mark Tuttle pointed me to this article by Amy Ellis Nutt, who writes: Since 2000, the number of U.S. academic fraud cases in science has risen dramatically. Five years ago, the journal Nature tallied the number of retractions in the previous decade and revealed they had shot up 10-fold. Show More Summary

New smartwatch application for accurate signature verification developed by Ben-Gurion U

(American Associates, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) The research team developed software that uses motion data gathered from the movements of a person's wrist to identify the writer during the signing process. This information,...Show More Summary

Motors matter: From DVD players to robotic surgeons

(Chinese Association of Automation) A team of researchers from the Polytechnic University of Bari, in Italy, are working to improve how industrial electric drives operate. They propose a new control scheme that will improve not only how the motor operates, but also how to improve how the motor interacts with other systems. Show More Summary

“Estimating trends in mortality for the bottom quartile, we found little evidence that survival probabilities declined dramatically.”

Last year there was much discussion here and elsewhere about a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who noticed that death rates for non-Hispanic white Americans aged 45-54 had been roughly flat since 1999, even while the death rates for this age category had been declining steadily in other countries and among nonwhite Americans. Show More Summary

Room upgrade programs can increase hotel profits up to 35 percent

(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences) Standby upgrade programs are an innovative way for hotels to increase annual revenue by as much as 35 percent. However, new research in an upcoming edition of the INFORMS...Show More Summary

Come and work with us!

Stan is an open-source, state-of-the-art probabilistic programming language with a high-performance Bayesian inference engine written in C++. Stan had been successfully applied to modeling problems with hundreds of thousands of parameters...Show More Summary

30 tickets left to StanCon 2017! New sponsor!

Stan Conference 2017 is on Saturday. We just sold our 150th ticket! Capacity is 180. It’s going to be an amazing event. Register here (while tickets are still available): https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com Our Q&A Panel will have some members of the Stan Development Team: Andrew Gelman. Show More Summary

“If the horse race polls were all wrong about Trump, why should his approval rating polls be any better?”

A journalist forwarded the above question to me and asked what I thought. My reply is that the horse race polls were not all wrong about Trump. The polls had him at approx 48% of the two-party vote and he received 49%. The polls were...Show More Summary

Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data

On the cover of BDA3 is a Bayesian decomposition of the time series of birthdays in the U.S. over a 20-year period. We modeled the data as a sum of Gaussian processes and fit it using GPstuff. Occasionally we fit this model to new data;...Show More Summary

We’re hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring!

[insert picture of adorable cat entwined with Stan logo] We’re hiring postdocs to do Bayesian inference. We’re hiring programmers for Stan. We’re hiring a project manager. How many people we hire depends on what gets funded. But we’re hiring a few people for sure. Show More Summary

Powerpose update

I contacted Anna Dreber, one of the authors of the paper that failed to replicate power pose, and asked her about a particular question that came up regarding their replication study. One of the authors of the original power pose study...Show More Summary

To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance of decision-based thinking to statistical analysis

We can break up any statistical problem into three steps: 1. Design and data collection. 2. Data analysis. 3. Decision making. It’s well known that step 1 typically requires some thought of steps 2 and 3: It is only when you have a sense...Show More Summary

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