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Gremlins in the work of Amy J. C. Cuddy, Michael I. Norton, and Susan T. Fiske

Remember that “gremlins” paper by environmental economist Richard Tol? The one that had almost as many errors as data points? The one where, each time a correction was issued, more problems would spring up? (I’d say “hydra-like” but I’d rather not mix my mythical-beast metaphors.) Well, we’ve got another one. Show More Summary

“Positive Results Are Better for Your Career”

Brad Stiritz writes: I thought you might enjoy reading the following Der Spiegel interview with Peter Wilmshurst. Talk about fighting the good fight! He took the path of greatest resistance, and he beat what I presume are pretty stiff odds. Show More Summary

“Merciless Indian savages”

Paul Alper writes: Early this July Fourth morning I was listening to NPR’s Morning Edition do its annual Declaration of Independence reading; deep into the reading of grievances against the King of England I suddenly heard the unsettling...Show More Summary

Americans (used to) love world government

Sociologist David Weakliem writes: It appears that an overwhelming majority of Americans who have an opinion on the subject think that Britain should remain in the European Union. But how many would support the United States joining an organization like the EU? My guess is very few. Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: Americans (used to) love world government Tues: “Positive Results Are Better for Your Career” Wed: “I would like to share some sad stories from economics related to these issues” Thurs: Happiness formulas Fri: “Participants reported...Show More Summary

The growth rate for three-colored sum-free sets

There seems to be a rule that all progress on the cap set problem should be announced on blogs, so let me continue the tradition. Robert Kleinberg, Will Sawin and I have found the rate of growth of three-colored sum-free subsets of, as. We just don’t know it is that what we’ve found! […]

Data science as the application of theoretical knowledge

Patrick Atwater writes: Insights that “much of what’s hard looks easy” and it’s about “getting the damn data” highlight important points that much of the tech-ey industry dominating definitions overlook in the excitement about production ML recommendation systems and the like. Show More Summary

Too good to be true: when overwhelming mathematics fails to convince

Gordon Danning points me to this news article by Lisa Zyga, “Why too much evidence can be a bad thing,” reporting on a paper by Lachlan Gunn and others. Their conclusions mostly seem reasonable, if a bit exaggerated. For example, I can’t...Show More Summary

Economists’ Enemy: Residual Seasonality

When seasonally adjusted numbers continue to exhibit the influences of seasonal effects, much as first-quarter readings on gross domestic product have regularly been doing, statisticians refer to it as residual seasonality. And that effect hampers seasoned economists from making clear-eyed judgments on the strength of the economy.

“Simple, Scalable and Accurate Posterior Interval Estimation”

Cheng Li, Sanvesh Srivastava, and David Dunson write: We propose a new scalable algorithm for posterior interval estimation. Our algorithm first runs Markov chain Monte Carlo or any alternative posterior sampling algorithm in parallel...Show More Summary

Informative priors for treatment effects

Biostatistician Garnett McMillan writes: A PI recently completed a randomized trial where the experimental treatment showed a large, but not quite statistically significant (p=0.08) improvement over placebo. The investigators wanted to know how many additional subjects would be needed to achieve significance. Show More Summary

Horrible attack in Turkey

I don’t have anything to say about this, nor I think did I blog on the attacks in Florida or Paris or all the terrible things going on in the Middle East every day. It’s not my area of expertise and I don’t have anything particular to add. Show More Summary

Why experimental economics might well be doing better than psychology when it comes to replication

There’s a new paper, “Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics,” by Colin Camerer, Anna Dreber, Eskil Forsell, Teck-Hua Ho, Jürgen Huber, Magnus Johannesson, Michael Kirchler, Johan Almenberg, Adam Altmejd, Taizan...Show More Summary

Finite time blowup for Lagrangian modifications of the three-dimensional Euler equation

I’ve just posted to the arXiv my paper “Finite time blowup for Lagrangian modifications of the three-dimensional Euler equation“. This paper is loosely in the spirit of other recent papers of mine in which I explore how close one can get to supercritical PDE of physical interest (such as the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations), while […]

Broken broken windows policy?

A journalist pointed me to this recent report from the New York City Department of Investigation, which begins: Between 2010 and 2015, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) issued 1,839,414 “quality-of-life” summonses for offenses...Show More Summary

Short course on Bayesian data analysis and Stan 18-20 July in NYC!

Jonah Gabry, Vince Dorie, and I are giving a 3-day short course in two weeks. Before class everyone should install R, RStudio and RStan on their computers. (If you already have these, please update to the latest version of R and theShow More Summary

Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are, however, consistent with the claim (as well as being consistent with no effect)

Retractions or corrections of published papers are rare. We routinely encounter articles with fatal flaws, but it is so rare that such articles are retracted that it’s news when it happens. Retractions sometimes happen at the request...Show More Summary

How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit?

Here’s a news item: Emboldened by Brexit, U.S. secessionists in Texas are keen to adopt the campaign tactics used to sway the British vote for leaving the European Union and are demanding “Texit” comes next.... “The Texas Nationalist...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: How is Brexit different than Texit, Quexit, or Scotxit? Tues: Should this paper in Psychological Science be retracted? The data do not conclusively demonstrate the claim, nor do they provide strong evidence in favor. The data are,...Show More Summary

When are people gonna realize their studies are dead on arrival?

A comment at Thomas Lumley’s blog pointed me to this discussion by Terry Burnham with an interesting story of some flashy psychology research that failed to replicate. Here’s Burnham: [In his popular book, psychologist Daniel] Kahneman discussed an intriguing finding that people score higher on a test if the questions are hard to read. Show More Summary

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