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Head And Tail

Today’s exercise is a simple file-handling task for beginning programmers: take the name of a text file as input and write as output the first and last lines of the file. Your task is to write the file-handling program described above. When you are finished, you are welcome to read or run a suggested solution, […]

Bayesian Computing: Adventures on the Efficient Frontier

That’s the title of my forthcoming talk at the Nips workshop at 9am on 12 Dec. The post Bayesian Computing: Adventures on the Efficient Frontier appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Klaus Roth

Klaus Roth, who made fundamental contributions to analytic number theory, died this Tuesday, aged 90. I never met or communicated with Roth personally, but was certainly influenced by his work; he wrote relatively few papers, but they tended to have outsized impact. For instance, he was one of the key people (together with Bombieri) to […]

Pass the popcorn

Rodney Sparapini writes: I got this in my inbox today. I thought this might be of interest to you and your blog readers. It’s not at all of interest to me but it might interest some of my readers. I’m posting it here because there’sShow More Summary

Burritos for Category Theorists

At last, burritos have been explained in a clear, conceptual way.

Taleb’s Precautionary Principle: Should we be scared of GMOs?

Skyler Johnson writes: I was wondering if you could (or had already) weigh(ed) in on Nassim Taleb’s Precautionary Principle as it applies to GMOs? I’ve attached his working paper with Rupert Read, Raphael Douady, Joseph Norman and,Yaneer Bar-Yam. Show More Summary

Death rates have been increasing for middle-aged white women, decreasing for men

Here’s the deal (data from CDC Wonder, age-standardized to a uniform distribution in the age range): Hoo boy. Looky here, something interesting: From 1999 to 2013, the death rate for middle-aged white women steadily increased. The death rate for middle-aged white men increased through 2005, then decreased. Show More Summary

Triangle Of The Gods

The nth element of the Smarandache consecutive number sequence (A007908) is the sequence of the numbers from 1 to n concatenated in order: 1, 12, 123, 1234, 12345, 123456, 1234567, 12345678, 123456789, 12345678910, 1234567891011, 123456789101112, … The sequence is sometimes called the “Triangle of the Gods,” and the story goes that anyone who can specify […]

“Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research”

A reporter sent me this new paper by Anna Dreber, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson, which begins: Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically...Show More Summary

Pathological liars I have known

There was this guy in college who just made stuff up. It was weird, then funny, then sad. He was clearly an intelligent guy and but for some reason felt the need to fabricate. One thing I remember was something about being a studentShow More Summary

You won’t believe these stunning transformations: How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical models?

Isaac Armstrong writes: I was working through your textbook “Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models” but wanted to learn more and started working through your “Bayesian Data Analysis” text. I’ve got a few questions about your rat tumor example that I’d like to ask. Show More Summary

3 new priors you can’t do without, for coefficients and variance parameters in multilevel regression

Partha Lahiri writes, in reference to my 2006 paper: I am interested in finding out a good prior for the regression coefficients and variance components in a multi-level setting. For concreteness, let’s say we have a model like the following:...Show More Summary

This is a workshop you can’t miss: DataMeetsViz

This looks like it was a great conference with an all-star lineup of speakers. You can click through and see the talks. The post This is a workshop you can’t miss: DataMeetsViz appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Analytic number theory program at MSRI: Jan-May 2017 (second announcement)

Chantal David, Andrew Granville, Emmanuel Kowalski, Phillipe Michel, Kannan Soundararajan, and I are running a program at MSRI in the Spring of 2017 (more precisely, from Jan 17, 2017 to May 26, 2017) in the area of analytic number theory, with the intention to bringing together many of the leading experts in all aspects of the […]

What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanic men? It declined from 1989 to 1999, increased from 1999 to 2005, and held steady after that.

The raw death rates for the group (which appeared in the Case-Deaton paper) are in red, and the age-adjusted death rates (weighting each year of age equally) are in black. So... the age-adjusted mortality in this group increased by 5% from 1999 to 2005 and has held steady thereafter. Show More Summary

Age adjustment mortality update

Earlier today I discussed a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton in which they noted an increase in mortality rates among non-Hispanic white Americans from 1989 to 2013, a pattern that stood in sharp contrast to a decrease in several other rich countries and among U.S. Show More Summary

Behind The Numbers: Old Denali Measurement Still Measures Up

What may be most remarkable about the new measurement of Denali, taken this summer using modern tools, isn’t that it’s different. It’s how remarkably similar it is to the original taken in 1953.

Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century”: We need to adjust for the increase in average age of people in the 45-54 category

In a much-noticed paper, Anne Case and Angus Deaton write: This paper documents a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013. This change reversed...Show More Summary

October Jobs Report – The Numbers

Friday's job report appears to be the best so far for 2015, marked by brisk hiring, falling unemployment and rising wages. Here are the highlights.

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