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Algorithm could streamline harvesting of hand-picked crops

(University of Illinois College of Engineering) Richard Sowers, a professor of industrial and enterprise systems engineering and mathematics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and a team of students have developed an algorithm that promises to give valuable information to farmers of crops picked by hand.

Here’s the title of my talk at the New York R conference, 20 Apr 2018:

The intersection of Graphics and Bayes, a slice of the Venn diagram that’s a lot more crowded than you might realize And here are some relevant papers: [2003] A Bayesian formulation of exploratory data analysis and goodness-of-fit testing. Show More Summary

The changing voices of North Atlantic right whales

(NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center) Researchers have found that right whale calls, much like human voices, change as individuals age. In a study recently published in Animal Behaviour, scientists examined 986 high-quality calls from 49 individual North Atlantic right whales of known ages spanning from 1 month to 37 years. Show More Summary

Classical hypothesis testing is really really hard

This one surprised me. I included the following question in an exam: In causal inference, it is often important to study varying treatment effects: for example, a treatment could be more effective for men than for women, or for healthy than for unhealthy patients. Show More Summary

Bush-crickets could lead to sensors which more accurately mimic true hearing

(University of Lincoln) A new research project which will examine the three steps of hearing in the bush-cricket's ear could lead to improved miniaturised sensors which more accurately mimic true hearing.

A model for autoignition in turbulent jets

(Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics) Jets are rapid streams of liquids or gases that forcefully shoot into a surrounding medium. When ignitable substances are involved, combustion--rapid chemical reactions that result in heat and light--can occur. Show More Summary

I fear that many people are drawing the wrong lessons from the Wansink saga, focusing on procedural issues such as “p-hacking” rather than scientifically more important concerns about empty theory and hopelessly noisy data. If your theory is weak and your

Someone pointed me to this news article by Tim Schwab, “Brian Wansink: Data Masseur, Media Villain, Emblem of a Thornier Problem.” Schwab writes: If you look into the archives of your favorite journalism outlet, there’s a good chance...Show More Summary

A more formal take on the multiverse

You’ve heard of multiverse analysis, which is an attempt to map out the garden of forking paths. Others are interested in this topic too. Carol Nickerson pointed me to this paper by Jan Wacker with a more formal version of the multiverse idea. The post A more formal take on the multiverse appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

When sciences come together

(Kyoto University) Kyoto University investigates how seemingly separate concepts in scientific fields fuse to become universal approaches by by developing a new methodology to analyze citations in papers that use similar concepts, and tracked the changes over time. The researcher used ABM -- agent based modeling -- and IBM -- individual based modeling as examples.

3 cool tricks about constituency service (Daniel O’Donnell and Nick O’Neill edition)

I’m a political scientist and have studied electoral politics and incumbency, but I’d not thought seriously about constituency service until a couple years ago, when I contacted some of our local city and state representatives about a nearby traffic intersection that seemed unsafe. Show More Summary

2016 Brexit/Trump election results driven by fear and loathing

(Queensland University of Technology) In 2016 voters in the US and the UK defied expert predictions with the Vote Leave campaign winning for the UK to leave the European Union (Brexit) and the election of President Donald Trump. A world-first QUT-led study reveals why and how fear may now be driving the global political landscape.

Murray Davis on learning from stories

Jay Livingston writes: Your recent post and the linked article on storytelling reminded me of Murray Davis’s article on theory, which has some of the same themes. I haven’t reread it in a long time, so my memory of the details is hazy. Show More Summary

Hey, could somebody please send me a photo of a cat reading a Raymond Carver story?

Thanks in advance! P.S. Jaime Ashander sent in a photo. Thanks, Jaime! The post Hey, could somebody please send me a photo of a cat reading a Raymond Carver story? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Incorporating Bayes factor into my understanding of scientific information and the replication crisis

I was having this discussion with Dan Kahan, who was arguing that my ideas about type M and type S error, while mathematically correct, represent a bit of a dead end in that, if you want to evaluate statistically-based scientific claims, you’re better off simply using likelihood ratios or Bayes factors. Show More Summary

“and, indeed, that my study is consistent with X having a negative effect on Y.”

David Allison shares this article: Pediatrics: letter to the editor – Metformin for Obesity in Prepubertal and Pubertal Children A Randomized Controlled Trial and the authors’ reply: RE: Clarification of statistical interpretation in...Show More Summary

Another reason not to believe the Electoral Integrity Project

Nick Stevenson writes: If wonder if the Electoral Integrity Project still wants to defend Rwanda’s score of 64? Or is the U.S. (electoral integrity score 61) just jealous? Stevenson was reacting to a news article from the WashingtonShow More Summary

“Like a harbor clotted with sunken vessels”

After writing this post on an error in one of my published papers, I got to thinking about the general problem of mistakes in the scientific literature. Retraction is not a serious solution to the problem. And there are lots of people...Show More Summary

The “shy Trump voter” meta-question: Why is an erroneous theory so popular?

In trying to make sense of the 2016 election and its polling, people keep bringing up the idea of the “shy Trump voters”—those people who supported Trump for president but didn’t want to admit this to pollsters. I’ve never thought this...Show More Summary

Univalence From Scratch

A self-contained, brief and complete formulation of Voevodsky's Univalence Axiom.

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