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Malaria elimination in Sub-Saharan Africa predicted to be possible under right conditions

(PLOS) Malaria elimination in historically high transmission areas like southern Africa is possible with tools that are already available, provided those tools are deployed aggressively -- according to new research published in PLOS Computational Biology.

An integration approach to the Toeplitz square peg problem

I’ve just uploaded to the arXiv my paper “An integration approach to the Toeplitz square peg problem“, submitted to Forum of Mathematics, Sigma. This paper resulted from my attempts recently to solve the Toeplitz square peg problem (also known as the inscribed square problem): Conjecture 1 (Toeplitz square peg problem) Let be a simple closed […]

Abraham Lincoln and confidence intervals

Our recent discussion with mathematician Russ Lyons on confidence intervals reminded me of a famous logic paradox, in which equality is not as simple as it seems. The classic example goes as follows: Abraham Lincoln is the 16th president...Show More Summary

I’m only adding new posts when they’re important . . . and this one’s really important.

Derf Humphries writes: I’m a fact-checker and digital researcher in Atlanta. Your blog has been quite useful to me this week. Your statistics and explanations are impressive, but the decision to ornament your articles with such handsome...Show More Summary

Laura DeMarco to receive 2017 AMS Satter Prize

(American Mathematical Society) Laura DeMarco of Northwestern University will receive the 2017 AMS Ruth Lyttle Satter Prize in Mathematics 'for her fundamental contributions to complex dynamics, potential theory, and the emerging field of arithmetic dynamics.'

Rallies, protests, and Black Friday: Physics finds dangers hiding in plain sight

(Uppsala University) Inspired by the way people move at heavy metal concerts, an international team of researchers from Uppsala University and Harvard University have learned how to spot danger zones in mass gatherings before disaster strikes.

How best to partition data into test and holdout samples?

Bill Harris writes: In “Type M error can explain Weisburd’s Paradox,” you reference Button et al. 2013. While reading that article, I noticed figure 1 and the associated text describing the 50% probability of failing to detect a significant result with a replication of the same size as the original test that was just significant. Show More Summary


Wow. The post a2 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Henri Darmon to receive 2017 AMS Cole Prize in Number Theory

(American Mathematical Society) Henri Darmon of McGill University will receive the 2017 AMS Cole Prize in Number Theory 'for his contributions to the arithmetic of elliptic curves and modular forms.'

Fiction-book narratives: Only six emotional storylines

(Springer) Our most beloved works of fiction hide well-trodden narratives. And most fictions is based on far fewer storylines than you might have imagined. To come to this conclusion, big data scientists have worked with colleagues from natural language processing to analyse the narrative in more than a thousand works of fiction. Show More Summary

Deep learning, model checking, AI, the no-homunculus principle, and the unitary nature of consciousness

Bayesian data analysis, as my colleagues and I have formulated it, has a human in the loop. Here’s how we put it on the very first page of our book: The process of Bayesian data analysis can be idealized by dividing it into the following three steps: 1. Show More Summary

On deck this week

The other day someone asked me why we stopped running our On Deck This Week post every Monday morning. I replied that On Deck is not needed because a few months ago I announced all our posts, in order, through mid-January. See here: My next 170 blog posts (inbox zero and a change of pace). Show More Summary

“US Election Analysis 2016: Media, Voters and the Campaign”

Darren Lilleker, Einar Thorsen, Daniel Jackson, Anastasia Veneti edited this insta-book of post-election analyses. Actually, at least one of these chapters was written before the election. When the editors asked me if I could contribute...Show More Summary

Unfinished (so far) draft blog posts

Most of the time when I start writing a blog post, I continue till its finished. As of this writing this blog has 7128 posts published, 137 scheduled, and only 434 unpublished drafts sitting in the folder. 434 might sound like a lot,...Show More Summary

Individual and aggregate patterns in the Equality of Opportunity research project

Dale Lehman writes: I’ve been looking at the work of the Equality of Opportunity Project and noticed that you had commented on some of their work. Since you are somewhat familiar with the work, and since they do not respond to my queries, I thought I’d ask you about something that is bothering me. Show More Summary

Know-it-all neuroscientist explains Trump’s election victory to the rest of us

Alex Gamma points us to the latest atrocity of pseudo-science in the popular press: There’s a horrible piece in “Scientific American” arguing that knowing some neuroscience explains the results of the election, in particuar why people...Show More Summary

le lemme de la Gare du Nord

Here’s the story: In the announcement of the death of his friend Yoneda on the catlist, the computer scientist Yoshiki Kinoshita writes: “Prof. Yoneda was born on 28 March, 1930. He studied mathematics in the University of Tokyo; in the last year of his studies he followed the seminar of Prof. Shokiti Iyanaga, where he... Continue reading ?

Andras Vasy to receive 2017 AMS Bôcher Prize

(American Mathematical Society) Andras Vasy will receive the 2017 AMS Bôcher Prize for his fundamental paper 'Microlocal analysis of asymptotically hyperbolic and Kerr-de Sitter spaces.'

Good news! PPNAS releases updated guidelines for getting a paper published in their social science division

From zero to Ted talk in 18 simple steps: Rolf Zwaan explains how to do it! The advice is from 2013 but I think it still just might work. Here’s Zwaan: How to Cook up Your Own Social Priming Article 1. Come up with an idea for a study. Show More Summary

Getting to bottom of crater formation

(American Association for the Advancement of Science) The first results of a recent drilling expedition at Chicxulub crater -- one of the only known craters on Earth with a well-preserved 'peak ring' -- reveal how it collapsed to form a complex crater.

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