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On deck this week

Mon: Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate Tues: Boostrapping your posterior Wed: You won’t be able to forget this one: Alleged data manipulation in NIH-funded Alzheimer’s study Thurs: Are stereotypes...Show More Summary

Documented forking paths in the Competitive Reaction Time Task

Baruch Eitan writes: This is some luscious garden of forking paths. Indeed. Here’s what Malte Elson writes at the linked website: The Competitive Reaction Time Task, sometimes also called the Taylor Aggression Paradigm (TAP), is one of the most commonly used tests to purportedly measure aggressive behavior in a laboratory environment.... Show More Summary

Dimensionful Matrices

Introduction Programming languages and libraries for numerical work tend not to place a lot of emphasis on the types of their data. For example Matlab, R, Octave, Fortran, and Numpy (but not the now defunct Fortress) all tend to treat...Show More Summary

Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage

Jim Savage writes: I just saw your post on poll bounces; have been thinking the same myself. Why are the poll aggregators so jumpy about new polls? Annoyed, I put together a poll aggregator that took a state-space approach to the unobserved...Show More Summary

“What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of psychology?”

Psychology/philosophy professor Stan Klein was motivated by our power pose discussion to send along this article which seems to me to be a worthy entry in what I’ve lately been calling “the literature of exasperation,” following in the tradition of Meehl etc. Show More Summary

Don’t believe the bounce

Alan Abramowitz sent us the above graph, which shows the results from a series of recent national polls, for each plotting Hillary Clinton’s margin in support (that is, Clinton minus Trump in the vote-intention question) vs. the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification (that is, percentage Democrat minus percentage Republican). Show More Summary

The p-value is a random variable

Sam Behseta sends along this paper by Laura Lazzeroni, Ying Lu, and Ilana Belitskaya-Lévy, who write: P values from identical experiments can differ greatly in a way that is surprising to many. The failure to appreciate this wide variability...Show More Summary

Guy Fieri wants your help! For a TV show on statistical models for real estate

I got the following email from David Mulholland: I’m a producer at Citizen Pictures where we produce Food Network’s “Diners, Dives and Drive-Ins” and Bravo’s digital series, “Going Off The Menu,” among others. A major network is working...Show More Summary

Amazon NYC decision analysis jobs

Dean Foster writes: Amazon is having a hiring event (Sept 8/9) here in NYC. If you are interested in working on demand forecasting either here in NYC or in Seattle send your resume to by September 1st, 2016. Here’s...Show More Summary

In policing (and elsewhere), regional variation in behavior can be huge, and perhaps give a clue about how to move forward.

Rajiv Sethi points to a discussion of Peter Moskos on the recent controversy over racial bias in police shootings. Here’s Sethi: Moskos is not arguing here that the police can do no wrong; he is arguing instead that in the aggregate, whites and blacks are about equally likely to be victims of bad shootings.. Show More Summary

My next 170 blog posts (inbox zero and a change of pace)

I’ve successfully emptied my inbox: And one result was to fill up the blog through mid-January. I think I’ve been doing enough blogging recently, so my plan now is to stop for awhile and instead transfer my writing energy into articles and books. Show More Summary

All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading

Roland Rau writes: After many years of applying frequentist statistical methods in mortality research, I just began to learn about the application of Bayesian methods in demography. Since I also wanted to change a part of my research...Show More Summary

A kangaroo, a feather, and a scale walk into Viktor Beekman’s office

E. J. writes: I enjoyed your kangaroo analogy [see also here—ed.] and so I contacted a talented graphical artist—Viktor Beekman—to draw it. The drawing is on Flickr under a CC license. Thanks, Viktor and E.J.! The post A kangaroo, a feather, and a scale walk into Viktor Beekman’s office appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad

Stan 2.11 is available for all interfaces We are happy to announce that all of the interfaces have been updated to Stan 2.11. There was a subtle bug introduced in 2.10 where a probabilistic acceptance condition was being checked twice. Show More Summary

Even social scientists can think like pundits, unfortunately

I regularly read the Orgtheory blog which has interesting perspectives from sociologists. Today I saw this, from Sean Safford: I [Safford] actually hold to the idea that the winning candidate for President is always the one who has a...Show More Summary

What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which of course will happen all the time, especially considering that new treatments should be compared to best available alternatives, which implies that most improvements will be incre

Simon Gates writes: I thought you might be interested in a recently published clinical trial, for potential blog material. It picks up some themes that have cropped in recent months. Also, it is important for the way statistical methods influence what can be life or death decisions. Show More Summary

Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication

Mark Tuttle points to a post, “Common anticholinergic drugs like Benadryl linked to increased dementia risk” by Beverly Merz, Executive Editor, Harvard Women’s Health Watch. Merz writes: In a report published in JAMA Internal Medicine,...Show More Summary

Fish cannot carry p-values

Following up on our discussion from last week on inference for fisheries, Anders Lamberg writes: Since I first sent you the question, there has been a debate here too. In the discussion you send, there is a debate both about the actual sampling (the mathematics) and about more the practical/biological issues. Show More Summary

Call for research on California water resources

Patrick Atwater writes: I serve as a project manager of the California Data Collaborative, a coalition of water utilities working together to share data and ensure water reliability. We’ve put together a quick call for ideas on studies into the demand effects of water rates leveraging this unique database. Show More Summary

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