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Bridge Hands

[ Thanks to all who wrote with good wishes after my post last Friday. I am fully recovered and back at work. ] Newspapers and textbooks often print bridge hands in the format shown below, then discuss the proper playing of the hand: NORTH S: A Q J 10 8 H: 5 4 2 D: […]

Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk

Dan Kahan writes: I [Kahan] think serious journals should adopt policies announcing that they won’t accept studies that use M Turk samples for types of studies they are not suited for.... Here is my proposal: Pending a journal’s adoption...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk Tues: Neither time nor stomach Wed: Reprint of “Observational Studies” by William Cochran followed by comments by current researchers in observational studies Thurs: Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential! Fri: Harry S. Show More Summary

Stan at JSM2015

In addition to Jigiang’s talk on Stan, 11:25 AM on Wednesday, I’ll also be giving a talk about Hamiltonian Monte Carlo today at 3:20 PM.  Stanimals in attendance can come find me to score a sweet Stan sticker. And everyone should check...Show More Summary

Monte Carlo and the Holy Grail

On 31 Dec 2010, someone wrote in: A British Bayesian curiosity: Adrian Smith has just been knighted, and so becomes Sir Adrian. He can’t be the first Bayesian knight, as Harold Jeffreys was Sir Harold. I replied by pointing to this discussion from 2008, and adding: Perhaps Spiegelhalter can be knighted next. Show More Summary

Classifying causes of death using “verbal autopsies”

Tyler McCormick sent along this paper, “Probabilistic Cause-of-death Assignment using Verbal Autopsies,” coauthored with Zehang Li, Clara Calvert, Amelia Crampin, Kathleen Kahn, and Samuel Clark: In areas without complete-coverage civil registration and vital statistics systems there is uncertainty about even the most basic demographic indicators. Show More Summary

The secret to making a successful conference presentation

JSM (the Joint Statistical Meetings) are coming up soon, and Jiqiang’s giving a talk on Stan. Here’s the advice I gave him: in 20 minutes, something like this: – What is Stan? – Where does Stan work well? – Current and future Stan research. Show More Summary

Behind The Numbers: Crime Data

According to multiple studies, roughly 1 in 3 American adults has been arrested or taken into police custody for something other than a minor traffic offense. But none of the data sets is complete, and some include duplicate or defunct records.

Public Service Announcement

Long-time readers of this blog will remember that five years ago I suffered a bi-lateral pulmonary embolism that nearly killed me; my right lung was 100% blocked, my left lung 60%. This past Tuesday evening I suffered a second pulmonary embolism. It was not nearly as serious as the first, I even went to work […]

Equidistribution for multidimensional polynomial phases

The equidistribution theorem asserts that if is an irrational phase, then the sequence is equidistributed on the unit circle, or equivalently that for any continuous (or equivalently, for any smooth) function. By approximating uniformly by a Fourier series, this claim is equivalent to that of showing that for any non-zero integer (where ), which […]

When does Bayes do the job?

E. J. writes: I’m writing a paper where I discuss one of the advantages of Bayesian inference, namely that it scales up to complex problems where maximum likelihood would simply be unfeasible or unattractive. I have an example whereShow More Summary

How Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works

Marco Inancio posted this one on the Stan users list: ( Statement 1) If the kinetic energy equation comes from a distribution $L$ which is not a symmetric distribution, then thanks to the “Conservation of the Hamiltonian” property we’ll...Show More Summary

Pro Publica’s new Surgeon Scorecards

Skyler Johnson writes: You should definitely weigh in on this… Pro Publica created “Surgeon Scorecards” based upon risk adjusted surgery compilation rates. They used hierarchical modeling via the lmer package in R. For detailed methodology,...Show More Summary

50 Cent Bankruptcy: By The Numbers

50 Cent filed 56 pages of financial information that’s required as part of his bankruptcy case. Find out whether the 40-year-old entertainer, whose real name is Curtis James Jackson III, is really as rich as he claims to be.

Stan Meetup Talk in Ann Arbor this Wednesday (5 Aug 2015)

I (Bob) will be presenting an overview of (R)Stan at the Ann Arbor R User Group meetup this Wednesday night (5 August 2015) at 7 PM. To see the abstract and register to attend: RStan: Statistical Modeling Made Easy with Bob Carpenter...Show More Summary

Three Homework Problems

I get lots of emails, and even some comment postings, from students whe want help with their homework. I never respond, even to offer a hint or a simple word of encouragement. Sorry, but that’s not what I do. But many of my exercises are based on typical homework problems for programming students, and with […]

The plagiarist next door strikes back: Different standards of plagiarism in different communities

Commenters on this blog sometimes tell me not to waste so much time talking about plagiarism. And in the grand scheme of things, what could be more trivial than plagiarism in an obscure German book of chess anecdotes? Yet this is what I have come to talk with you about today. Show More Summary

On deck this week

Mon: The plagiarist next door strikes back: Different standards of plagiarism in different communities Tues: Pro Publica’s new Surgeon Scorecards Wed: How Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works Thurs: When does Bayes do the job? Fri: Here’s a...Show More Summary


The following bit of irrelevance appeared on the stan-users mailing list: On Jun 11, 2015, at 11:29 AM, Joanna Caldwell wrote: Webinar: Tips & Tricks to Improve Your Logistic Regression... Registration Link:... Abstract: Logistic regression is a commonly used tool to analyze binary classification problems. Show More Summary

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