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Americans Hate Congress, but Like Their Own Representatives

For Americans, their own Congress member is the devil they know. Voters have more favorable views of their own Congress members than they do of Congress in general, according to a Gallup poll released today.

Where Do Probability Measures Come From?

Tom Avery explains a categorical construction of the concept of probability measure.

Ranking Holiday Spending: Do We Buy More on Halloween or Father’s Day?

Retailers are preparing for their main holiday season, but there are spending spikes at other points of the year as well. How much money major annual events pull in depends on the holiday.

New Evidence of the NSA Deliberately Weakening Encryption

Yet more evidence that the NSA wants to make it impossible to communicate privately.

Hoe noem je?

Haynes Goddard writes: Reviewing my notes and books on categorical data analysis, the term “nominal” is widely employed to refer to variables without any natural ordering. I was a language major in UG school and knew that the etymology...Show More Summary

How do companies use Bayesian methods?

Jason May writes: I’m in Northwestern’s Predictive Analytics grad program. I’m working on a project providing Case Studies of how companies use certain analytic processes and want to use Bayesian Analysis as my focus. The problem: IShow More Summary

Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science

Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Show More Summary

My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics

We will study and practice many different aspects of statistical communication, including graphing data and fitted models, programming in Rrrrrrrr, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students and colleagues, and combining words and pictures in different ways. Show More Summary

The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say

In our recent discussion of publication bias, a commenter link to a recent paper, “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back,” by Abel Brodeur, Mathias Le, Marc Sangnier, Yanos Zylberberg, who point to the notorious overrepresentation in scientific...Show More Summary

I didn’t say that! Part 2

Uh oh, this is getting kinda embarrassing. The Garden of Forking Paths paper, by Eric Loken and myself, just appeared in American Scientist. Here’s our manuscript version (“The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be...Show More Summary

In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons

Exhibit A: [2012] Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness 5, 189-211. (Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill, and Masanao Yajima) Exhibit B: The garden of forking paths:...Show More Summary

On deck this week

Tues: In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons Wed: The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worseShow More Summary

Election Bill: Salaries for House, Senate, Governors and State Lawmakers

In the coming Nov. 4 midterm elections, Americans are electing thousands of politicians -- and paying their salaries. How much is the bill?

Spiral Wrapping

Today’s exercise appears regularly on lists of interview questions. We’ve done something similar in the past, but since it’s so common we’ll do it again. Given a matrix, print a list of elements of the matrix. Start in the top-right corner of the matrix, move left across the top row, then down the left column, […]

10th anniversary of “Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science”

Richard Morey pointed out the other day that this blog is 10 years old! During this time, we’ve had 5688 posts, 48799 comments, and who knows how many readers. On this tenth anniversary, I’d like to thank my collaborators on all theShow More Summary

Additive limits

In graph theory, the recently developed theory of graph limits has proven to be a useful tool for analysing large dense graphs, being a convenient reformulation of the Szemerédi regularity lemma. Roughly speaking, the theory asserts that given any sequence of finite graphs, one can extract a subsequence which converges (in a specific sense) to […]

“Illinois chancellor who fired Salaita accused of serial self-plagiarism.”

I came across a couple of stories today that made me wonder how much we can learn from a scholar’s professional misconduct. The first was a review by Kimberle Crenshaw of a book by Joan Biskupic about Supreme Court judge Sonia Sotomayor. Show More Summary

Science tells us that fast food lovers are more likely to marry other fast food lovers

Emma Pierson writes: I’m a statistician working at the genetics company 23andMe before pursuing a master’s in statistics at Oxford on a Rhodes scholarship. I’ve really enjoyed reading your blog, and we’ve been doing some social science research at 23andMe which I thought might be of interest. Show More Summary

When am I a conservative and when am I a liberal (when it comes to statistics, that is)?

Here I am one day: Let me conclude with a statistical point. Sometimes researchers want to play it safe by using traditional methods — most notoriously, in that recent note by Michael Link, president of the American Association of Public...Show More Summary

Statshot: Plastic Surgery, Cruises and Netflix

This week in Statshot, over the past dozen years, cosmetic-surgery patients have moved away from major procedures such as nose jobs and liposuction and toward less invasive procedures such as Botox and hair removal; almost half of the more than 20 million people who took a cruise in 2013 traveled on one of the top three brands, and more.

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