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Teeth are the only bones that show

“I lived in the country where the dead wood aches, in a house made of stone and a thousand mistakes” – The Drones Sometimes it’s cold and grey and Canadian outside and the procrastination hits hard. Sometimes, in those dark moments,Show More Summary

The king must die

“And then there was Yodeling Elaine, the Queen of the Air. She had a dollar sign medallion about as big as a dinner plate around her neck and a tiny bubble of spittle around her nostril and a little rusty tear, for she had lassoed and...Show More Summary

Contour as a verb

Our love is like the border between Greece and Albania – The Mountain Goats (In which I am uncharacteristically brief) Andrew’s answer to recent post reminded me of one of my favourite questions: how do you visualise uncertainty in spatial maps. Show More Summary

Barry Gibb came fourth in a Barry Gibb look alike contest

Every day a little death, in the parlour, in the bed. In the lips and in the eyes. In the curtains in the silver, in the buttons, in the bread, in the murmurs, in the gestures, in the pauses, in the sighs. – Sondheim The most horrible...Show More Summary

It seemed to me that most destruction was being done by those who could not choose between the two

Amateurs, dilettantes, hacks, cowboys, clones — Nick Cave [Note from Dan 11Sept: I wanted to leave some clear air after the StanCon reminder, so I scheduled this post for tomorrow. Which means you get two posts (one from me, one from Andrew) on this in two days. Show More Summary

Touch me, I want to feel your data.

(This is not a paper we wrote by mistake.) (This is also not Andrew) (This is also really a blog about an aspect of the paper, which mostly focusses on issues around visualisation and how visualisation can improve workflow. So you should...Show More Summary

(It’s never a) Total Eclipse of the Prior

When I [Simpson] was a kid, there was a song by a band with an unprintable name that was briefly and inexplicably popular in Australia.  In the early 2000s they had a song called “My ex-girlfriend’s boyfriend’s got a band” that begins...Show More Summary

Torture talk: An uncontrolled experiment is still an experiment.

Paul Alper points us to this horrifying op-ed by M. Gregg Bloche about scientific study of data from U.S. military torture programs. I’ll leave the torture stuff to the experts or this guy who you’ve probably heard of. Instead, I have a technical point to make. Show More Summary

Seemingly intuitive and low math intros to Bayes never seem to deliver as hoped: Why?

This post was prompted by recent nicely done videos by Rasmus Baath that provide an intuitive and low math introduction to Bayesian material. Now, I do not know that these have delivered less than he hoped for. Nor I have asked him.Show More Summary

Grothendieck’s gallery No. 154

Since mid May the Montpellier part of Grothendieck’s gribouillis are online and for everyone available at the Archives Grothendieck. The story is well-known. End of June 1990, Grothendieck phoned Jean Malgoire warning him to come asap if he wanted to safeguard the better part of G’s mathematical archive, for he was making a bonfire… A... Continue reading ?

Applying human factors research to statistical graphics

John Rauser writes: I’ve been a reader of yours (books, papers and the blog) for a long time, and it occurred to me today that I might be able to give something back to you. I recently wrote a talk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSgEeI2Xpdc) about human factors research applied to making statistical graphics. Show More Summary

They want help designing a crowdsourcing data analysis project

Michael Feldman writes: My collaborators and myself are doing research where we try to understand the reasons for the variability in data analysis (“the garden of forking paths”). Our goal is to understand the reasons why scientists make different decisions regarding their analyses and in doing so reach different results. Show More Summary

Theoretical Statistics is the Theory of Applied Statistics: How to Think About What We Do

Above is my talk at the 2017 New York R conference. Look, no slides! The talk went well. I think the video would be more appealing to listen to if they’d mixed in more of the crowd noise. Then you’d hear people laughing at all the right spots. Show More Summary

Higher credence for the masses: From a washed up Wonder Woman?

The Four Most Dangerous Words? A New Study Shows | Laura Arnold | TEDxPennsylvaniaAvenue I brought this link forward in some comments but wanted to promote it to a post as I think its important and I know many folks just do not read comments. Show More Summary

Stan without frontiers, Bayes without tears

This recent comment thread reminds me of a question that comes up from time to time, which is how to teach Bayesian statistics to students who aren’t comfortable with calculus. For continuous models, probabilities are integrals. AndShow More Summary

Organizations that defend junk science are pitiful suckers get conned and conned again

So. Cornell stands behind Wansink, and Ohio State stands behind Croce. George Mason University bestows honors on Weggy. Penn State trustee disses “so-called victims.” Local religious leaders aggressively defend child abusers in their communities. Show More Summary

My interview on EconTalk, and some other podcasts and videos

Russ Roberts recently interviewed me for his EconTalk podcast. We talked about social science and the garden of forking paths. Roberts was also going to talk with me about Case and Deaton, but we ran out of time. Whenever I announce a talk, people ask in comments if it will be streamed or recorded. Show More Summary

Yves Meyer wins the 2017 Abel Prize

Just a short post to note that Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters has just announced that the 2017 Abel prize has been awarded to Yves Meyer, “for his pivotal role in the development of the mathematical theory of wavelets”.  The actual prize ceremony will be at Oslo in May. I am actually in Oslo […]

Ensemble Methods are Doomed to Fail in High Dimensions

Ensemble methods By ensemble methods, I (Bob, not Andrew) mean approaches that scatter points in space and then make moves by inteprolating or extrapolating among subsets of them. Two prominent examples are described in these papers:...Show More Summary

Cage match: Null-hypothesis-significance-testing meets incrementalism. Nobody comes out alive.

It goes like this. Null-hypothesis-significance-testing (NHST) only works when you have enough accuracy that you can confidently reject the null hypothesis. You get this accuracy from a large sample of measurements with low bias and low variance. Show More Summary

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