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Replin’ ain’t easy: My very first preregistration

I’m doing my first preregistered replication. And it’s a lot of work! We’ve been discussing this for awhile—here’s something I published in 2013 in response to proposals by James Moneghan and by Macartan Humphreys, Raul Sanchez de la...Show More Summary

Betancourt Binge (Video Lectures on HMC and Stan)

Even better than binging on Netflix, catch up on Michael Betancourt’s updated video lectures, just days after their live theatrical debut in Tokyo. Scalable Bayesian Inference with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (YouTube, 1 hour) Some Bayesian...Show More Summary

It ought to be common knowledge that Donald Trump is not fit for the presidency of the United States of America

In logic, there is a subtle but important distinction between the concept of mutual knowledge – information that everyone (or almost everyone) knows – and common knowledge, which is not only knowledge that (almost) everyone knows, but something that (almost) everyone knows that everyone else knows (and that everyone knows that everyone else knows that […]

Math on a plane!

Paul Alper pointed me to this news article about an economist who got BUSTED for doing algebra on the plane. This dude was profiled by the lady sitting next to him who got suspicious of his incomprehensible formulas. I feel that wayShow More Summary

John Yoo blogging

Jonathan Falk sends along this gem: Judicial Torture as a Screening Device Kong-Pin Chen / Tsung-Sheng Tsai Judicial torture to extract information or to elicit a confession was a common practice in pre-modern societies, both in the east and the west. Show More Summary

Gresham’s Law of experimental methods

A cognitive scientist writes: You’ll be interested to see a comment from one of my students, who’s trying to follow all your advice: It’s hard to see all this bullshit in top journals, while I see that if I do things right, it takesShow More Summary

Stan Case Studies Launches

There’s a new section of the Stan web site, with case studies meant to illustrate statistical methodologies, classes of models, application areas, statistical computation, and Stan programming. Stan Case Studies The first ten or so are up, including a grab bag of education models from Daniel Furr at U.C. Show More Summary

“Why IT Fumbles Analytics Projects”

Someone pointed me to this Harvard Business Review article by Donald Marchand and Joe Peppard, “Why IT Fumbles Analytics,” which begins as follows: In their quest to extract insights from the massive amounts of data now available from internal and external sources, many companies are spending heavily on IT tools and hiring data scientists. Show More Summary

Ted Versus Powerpose and the Moneygoround, Part One

So. I was reading the newspaper the other day and came across a credulous review of the recent book by Amy “Power Pose” Cuddy. The review, by Heather Havrilesky, expressed some overall wariness regarding the self-help genre, but I was disappointed to see no skepticism regarding Cuddy’s scientific claims. Show More Summary

We got mooks

Columbia University’s Data Science Institute is releasing some mooks, and I’m part of it. I’ll first give the official announcement and then share some of my thoughts. The official announcement: The Data Science Institute at Columbia...Show More Summary

Just Filling in the Bubbles

Collin Hitt writes: I study wrong answers, per your blog post today. My research focuses mostly on surveys of schoolchildren. I study the kids who appear to be just filling in the bubbles, who by accident actually reveal something of use for education researchers. Show More Summary

Pathological liars I have known

There was this guy in college who just made stuff up. It was weird, then funny, then sad. He was clearly an intelligent guy and but for some reason felt the need to fabricate. One thing I remember was something about being a studentShow More Summary

Solution to Stan Puzzle 1: Inferring Ability from Streaks

If you missed it the first time around, here’s a link to: Stan Puzzle 1: Inferring Ability from Streaks First, a hat-tip to Mike, who posted the correct answer as a comment. So as not to spoil the surprise for everyone else, MichaelShow More Summary

Stan at JSM2015

In addition to Jigiang’s talk on Stan, 11:25 AM on Wednesday, I’ll also be giving a talk about Hamiltonian Monte Carlo today at 3:20 PM.  Stanimals in attendance can come find me to score a sweet Stan sticker. And everyone should check...Show More Summary

What’s the stupidest thing the NYC Department of Education and Columbia University Teachers College did in the past decade?

Ummm, how bout this: The principal of a popular elementary school in Harlem acknowledged that she forged answers on students’ state English exams in April because the students had not finished the tests... As a result of the cheating, the city invalidated several dozen English test results for the school’s third grade. Show More Summary

Statistics Be

This modern statistics got me confused, To tell you friends I’m quite unenthused. This modern statistics got me confused, To tell you friends I’m quite unenthused. I like Pee Wee Fisher or the great Jerzy But can’t make head nor tail...Show More Summary

The round of 8 begins: Mark Twain (4) vs. Miguel de Cervantes (2); Carlin advances

For yesterday‘s contest I really really really wanted to pick John Waters. For one thing, of all the 64 people in the bracket, he’s the one I think I’d like to hear the most. For another, he’s still alive and just might conceivably be...Show More Summary

The 1980 Math Olympiad Program: Where are they now?

Brian Hunt: He was the #1 math team kid in our team (Montgomery County, Maryland). I think he came in first place in the international olympiad the next year (yup, here’s the announcement). We carpooled once or twice to county math team...Show More Summary

Soil Scientists Seeking Super Model

I (Bob) spent last weekend at Biosphere 2, collaborating with soil carbon biogeochemists on a “super model.” Model combination and expansion The biogeochemists (three sciences in one!) have developed hundreds of competing models andShow More Summary

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