Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11051
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book

Back in 2014, I wrote this...For amusement: Years ago, whenever there was a market sell-off, my friend Tak Hallus (Stephen Robinett) would shout at his TV tuned to CNBC "Bring out the bears!".This was because CNBC would usually bring...Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 68 in October

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 68 in October, up from 64 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB:...Show More Summary

Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in September

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in September. The rates of change for July and August were notably revised; the current estimate for July, a decrease of 0.1 percent,...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly HigherMortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. Underlying bond markets suggested a bit more movement, and that will likely be reflected in tomorrow morning's rate sheets unless bonds improve overnight. Show More Summary

Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate

By request, here is an update to a graph I haven't posted in several years...The graph below shows single family housing starts (red) and the unemployment rate (blue, inverted) through September 2017. Note: Of course there are many other...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up slightly, Inventory down 10% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in September were up 0.9% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).2) Active inventory is now down 10.4% year-over-year. Show More Summary

NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "grew at a robust pace" in October

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyBusiness activity grew at a robust pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed six points to 30.2, its highest level in three years. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Oct 15, 2017Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, down from 24.4.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures:...Show More Summary

Fed Chair Janet Yellen "The Economy and Monetary Policy"

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: The Economy and Monetary Policy. A few excerpts on inflation: Inflation readings over the past several months have been surprisingly soft, however, and the 12-month change in core PCE prices has fallen to 1.3 percent. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Oct 15, 2017

The key economic reports this week are September housing starts and existing home sales.For manufacturing, September industrial production, and the October New York Fed and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.This week is bookended by two speeches by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (on Sunday, and then on Friday night). Show More Summary

Oil Rigs "The US oil rig eased back again"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Oct 13, 2017:• The US oil rig eased back again• Total US oil rigs were down 5 to 743• Horizontal oil rigs were down 3 to 638...• In May, $50 WTI would have brought...Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in September: Sales down 5% YoY, Active Inventory down 5% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes...Show More Summary

Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in September

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.0% in 2018, Contribution Base increased to $128,700

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2018.From Social Security: Social Security Announces 2.0 Percent Benefit Increase for 2018Monthly Social...Show More Summary

Retail Sales increased 1.6% in September

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.6 percent from August to September(seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.4 percent from September 2016.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food servicesShow More Summary

Friday: Retail Sales, CPI and 2018 COLA

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. Note: The 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base will be announced tomorrow. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic: Imports increased, Exports decreased in September

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs...Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate increases YoY, Just behind Record Year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 October The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 October 2017, according to data fromShow More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 243,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 260,000 to 258,000. Show More Summary

Port of Long Beach: Record Month, "Looks like retailers are optimistic about the holiday season"

From the Port of Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Sets Record for SeptemberCargo volume continues to break records at the Port of Long Beach, which moved more containers last month than any September in its history.The 701,619 twenty-foot...Show More Summary

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