Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11257
Posts / Week:22.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Tuesday: Small Business Index, PPI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher Mortgage rates moved modestly higher for the 3rd straight business day, making for a moderate correction from the last Wednesday's 1-month lows.Show More Summary

Prime Working-Age Population nears 2007 Peak

Update through November: The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of November 2017, according to the BLS, there were still fewer people in the 25 to 54 age group than in 2007.At the beginning...Show More Summary

Duy: "Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook"

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg: Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook. A few excerpts: The Fed is likely to continue to point toward another 75 basis points of tightening in 2018 when it releases the next Summary of Economic Projections. Show More Summary

FOMC Preview

The consensus is that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate 25bps at the meeting this week. Assuming the expected happens, the focus will be on the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's final press...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Dec 10, 2017Monday:• 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 3, and DOW futures are up 23 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.16 per barrel and Brent at $63.14 per barrel. Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, On Pace for Record Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 2 DecemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 26 November through 2 December 2017, according...Show More Summary

Goldman: FOMC Preview

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and almost all analysts expect a rate hike this week. Here are a few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: With the FOMC almost certain to deliver the third rate hike of 2017 at its...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Dec 10, 2017

The key economic reports this week are November retail sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).For manufacturing, November industrial production, and the December New York Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week.The FOMC meets this week and is expected to announce a 25bps increase in the Fed Funds rate. Show More Summary

AAR: Rail Carloads decreased, Intermodal Solid in November

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. In November 2017, like in October 2017, U.S. rail traffic had both a glass-is-half-empty and a glass-is-half-full feel to it. Show More Summary

Solid Seasonal Retail Hiring in November

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers in October and November at a higher pace than last year.Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Show More Summary

November Employment Report: 228,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... The unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent in November, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.6 million.... Show More Summary

Friday: Employment Report

My November Employment Preview and Goldman: November Payrolls PreviewFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November, down from the 261,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October. Show More Summary

Comment on Employment Report: Some Additional Hurricane Bounce Back

The headline jobs number was strong at 228 thousand, probably somewhat due to an additional bounce back from the hurricanes, and above expectations. The previous two months were revised up slightly by a combined 3 thousand jobs.The September...Show More Summary

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Remains Strong" in November

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Remains Strong in NovemberThe Dodge Momentum Index surged again in November, climbing 13.9% to 149.5 (2000=100) from the revised October reading of 131.3. Show More Summary

Goldman: November Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 225k in November, above consensus of +195k. In addition to a firm pace of underlying job growth, our forecast reflects...Show More Summary

November Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. Merrill Lynch economists expect the following: We forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by an above-trend 210k in November. While nonfarm payrolls rebounded... Show More Summary

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q3

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2017 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q3 2017 compared to Q2 2017:The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $96.9 trillion during the third quarter of 2017. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: "2.5 million Homes still in negative equity" at end of Q3 2017

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Homeowner Equity Increased by Almost $871 Billion in Q3 2017CoreLogic®... today released its Q3 2017 home equity analysis which shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63 percent of all homeowners)...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 236,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending December 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 238,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 242,250. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 238 thousand the previous week.• At 10:00 AM, The Q3 Quarterly Services Report from the...Show More Summary

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