Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10243
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

HVS: Q4 2016 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2016. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in November

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to Begin WeekMortgage rates fell modestly today, keeping rates near the lower end of the range seen since January 18th. The catch is that rates moved sharply higher on the 18th, and from there, you'd have to go back to late December to see anything higher. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in December, Lowest since March 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate decreased to 1.20% in December, down from 1.23% in November. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.55% in December 2015.This is the lowest serious delinquency...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continues to Expand" in January

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues to ExpandTexas factory activity increased for the seventh consecutive month in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.6% in December, up 0.3% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Bounce Back in DecemberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 1.6 percent to 109.0 in December from 107.3 in November. With last month's uptick...Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.3% in December, Spending increased 0.5%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $63.1 billion (0.5 percent)....Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

On Trump immigration executive order:"This isn't normal. Its not humane, its not thought through, its not necessary, its not wise, its not decent and above all, its not American."Eliot A. Cohen, Counselor in the United States Department of State under Condoleezza Rice and President George W. Show More Summary

January 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 163 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for January 2017. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for January 2017. Show More Summary

These are Not Normal Times

These are not normal times, and I can't just post economic data and remain silent on other issues.Mr. Trump's executive order is un-American, not Christian, and hopefully unconstitutional. This is a shameful act and no good person can...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Jan 29, 2017

The key report this week is the January employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the January ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and January auto sales.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected. Show More Summary

Oil: "Another huge week for total US oil rigs"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC: • Another huge week, total US oil rigs up 15 to 566• Horizontal oil rig counts up +17 to 463...• Widespread gains: Permian, EF, Bakken, Cana Woodford – the shale sector as a whole has turned back on• Another month of this will torpedo the OPEC deal Click on graph for larger image. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate falls to 1.0% in December, Lowest since June 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was at 1.00%, down from 1.03% in November. Freddie's rate is down from 1.32% in December 2015.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in December

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. Show More Summary

Q4 GDP: Investment

The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends toShow More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q4

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2016 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

Friday: GDP

From the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on January 26, up from 2.8 percent on January 19. After this morning's advance economic indicators release from the U.S. Show More Summary

A few Comments on December New Home Sales

New home sales for December were reported at 536,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well below the consensus forecast, however the previous months combined were revised up slightly.Sales were down 0.4% year-over-year in December. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued to Expand Moderately" in January

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand ModeratelyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the January Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist...Show More Summary

New Home Sales decrease to 536,000 Annual Rate in December

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 536 thousand. The previous three months were revised up combined."Sales of new single-family houses in December 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

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