Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10769
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment

Last week Reis reported the office vacancy rate was unchanged at 16.0% in Q2, from 16.0% in Q1.A key question is whether office investment will increase further (as a percent of GDP). The following graph shows the office vacancy rate and office investment as a percent of GDP. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

Happy July 4th!Wednesday:• At 2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 13 - 14, 2017

Hotels: Hotel Occupancy down Year-over-Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 24 June The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 18-24 June 2017, according to data from STR.In...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.4 million annual rate in June

Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto (ex-Porsche and Volvo), light vehicle sales were at a 16.42 million SAAR in June.That is down 2% from June 2016, and down 1% from last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graphShow More Summary

Construction Spending unchanged in May

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was unchanged in May:Construction spending during May 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,230.1 billion, nearly the same as the revised April estimate of $1,230.4 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increased to 57.8 in June

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 57.8% in June, up from 54.9% in May. The employment index was at 57.2%, up from 53.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 63.5%, up from 59.5%.From the Institute...Show More Summary

Monday: Auto Sales, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 2, 2017Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.1, up from 54.9 in May.• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.• All day: Light vehicle sales for June. Show More Summary

June 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 137 Institutions, Q2 2017 Transition Matrix

Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2017. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2017. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of July 2, 2017

The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, June auto sales, and the May Trade Deficit. ----- Monday, July 3rd ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sixth Consecutive Decline in June"

The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Monday, July 3rd.Note: There were 26 selling days in June 2017, the same as in June 2016.From WardsAuto: U.S. Forecast: Sixth Consecutive Decline in June A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

U.S. Births decreased in 2016, Women 30-34 Now have Highest Birth Rate

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2016. The NCHS reports:The provisional number of births for the United States in 2016 was 3,941,109, down 1% from 2015. The general fertility rate was 62.0Show More Summary

Chicago PMI Increases in June, Highest in Three Years

From the Chicago PMI: June Chicago Business Barometer at 65.7 vs 59.4 in May The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.7 in June from 59.4 in May, the highest level in over three years....“June’s MNI Chicago Business Barometer Survey is a testament to firms’ expectations of a busy summer. Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.4% in May, Spending increased 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income increased $67.1 billion (0.4 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $7.3 billion (0.1 percent)....Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. Show More Summary

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a MonthMortgage rates are higher again today, with the average lender now back to levels not seen since May 16th, 2017. Unless you've been following every little day-to-day change in rates, the apparent drama over the past few days is laughable. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since December 2007

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.04% in May, from 1.07% in April. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.38% in May 2016.This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since December 2007.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Show More Summary

Q1 GDP Revised up to 1.4% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate "flat" in Q2 at 16.0%

Reis released their Q2 2017 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged at 16.0% in Q2, from 16.0% in Q1. This is down from 16.1% in Q1 2016, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From Reis Economist Barbara Denham: Office Vacancy Holds Steady at 15.8%; Rents Increase 0.5% in the Quarter. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending June 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than 2 WeeksMortgage rates moved moderately higher again today, as investors continued digesting the possibility of a "taper tantrum" in Europe....The average lender is once again quoting 4.0% on top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. Show More Summary

Zillow Forecast: "May Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect the Cooldown to Continue"

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: May Case-Shiller...Show More Summary

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