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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13630
Posts / Week:40.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

FOMC Minutes: "Costs of downside shocks to the economy would be larger than those of upside shocks"

Note: Not every member of the FOMC agrees, but I think this is the key sentence: "the costs of downside shocks to the economy would be larger than those of upside shocks because, in current circumstances, it would be less problematic to remove accommodation quickly, if doing so becomes necessary, than to add accommodation". Show More Summary

CBO Estimate: Budget Deficit declines to 2.8% of GDP

From the CBO: Monthly Budget Review for September 2014The federal government ran a budget deficit of $486 billion in fiscal year 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates—$195 billion less than the shortfall recorded in fiscal year 2013, and the smallest deficit recorded since 2008. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

From Zillow: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Fall Below 4%; Current Rate is 3.96%, According to Zillow Mortgage Rate TickerThe 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow® Mortgages is currently 3.96 percent, down twelve basis points from this time last week. Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales down 1%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 13%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in September were down 1.0% year-over-year and at the lowest for September since 2008. Show More Summary

Fed: Q2 Household Debt Service Ratio near Record Low

The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q2 2014 was released today: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive...Show More Summary

Goldman: The Housing Recovery Resumes

A few excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle Housing: The Recovery ResumesOverall, the message from the broad housing data flow is consistent with the national accounts data. Real residential investment grew at an 8.8% rate in Q2 and is tracking at nearly 15% in Q3. Show More Summary

BLS: Jobs Openings at 4.8 million in August, Up 23% Year-over-year

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary There were 4.8 million job openings on the last business day of August, up from 4.6 million in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.......Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.4% Year-over-year in August

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for August. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for July. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Job Openings

An international economic overview from Bonddad: International Week in Review: The Sky Is Not Falling, But the Calculus Has Changed. Excerpt:At times like this, gloom and doom commentary begins to take center stage as “sky is falling” headlines become click bait for various websites. Show More Summary

Fun: News IQ Quiz

My view is most people are busy with other aspects of their lives, but these results are still pretty disappointing...From Jim Puzzanghera at the LA Times: Less than 1 in 4 Americans in survey know Janet Yellen is Fed chairJanet L. Yellen...Show More Summary

Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

This is an update to a previous post through September.Earlier this year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group and The Future is still Bright!I...Show More Summary

Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index

The Fed staff has developed a labor market indicator that they call the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). From the Fed: Assessing the Change in Labor Market ConditionsThis Note describes a dynamic factor model of labor market indicators...Show More Summary

Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for August

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for August today. According to BKFS, 5.90% of mortgages were delinquent in August, up from 5.64% in July. BKFS reports that 1.80% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.66% in August 2013.This gives a total of 7.70% delinquent or in foreclosure. Show More Summary

Monday: Fed Labor Market Conditions Index

An interesting post from Tim Duy: Is There a Wage Growth Puzzle?The unemployment and wage growth dynamics to date are actually very similar to what we have seen in the past. Low wage growth to date is not the "smoking gun" of proof of the importance of underemployment measures. Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the September employment report.Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of October 5th

This will be a very light week for economic data although there will be plenty of Fed speeches (not listed).Perhaps the most interesting releases this week will be the Fed's new Labor Market Conditions Index on Monday, and the Treasury Budget for September (end of fiscal year) on Friday. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 430 Institutions, Q3 2014 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 3, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Quiet week for changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List as there were only two removals. Show More Summary

Goldman: "Fed likely still holds $1 trillion MBS by the end of 2020"

Some interesting analysis from Hui Shan, Marty Young, Chris Henson at Goldman Sachs: Fed likely still holds $1 trillion MBS by the end of 2020 The QE program is set to end after the October FOMC meeting. In the updated exit strategyShow More Summary

Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was unchanged at 7.9% in Q3 2014. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was also unchanged at 10.3% in Q3. Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in August to $40.1 Billion

Earlier the Department of Commerce reported:[T]otal August exports of $198.5 billion and imports of $238.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.1 billion, down from $40.3 billion in July, revised. August exports were $0.4 billion more than July exports of $198.0 billion. Show More Summary

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