Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9185
Posts / Week:22.3
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Merrill: "Fading the first quarter GDP fade"

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate has fallen to just 0.4% annualized growth for Q1. The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent...Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 2 April The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 27 March through 2 April 2016, according to data from STR.In comparison with Easter week 2015, the industry’s occupancy rose 6.6% to 66.9%. Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 9%, Inventory up YoY

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.Inventory was up year-over-year in March, following fifteen consecutive months of year-over-year declines in Phoenix. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 267,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending April 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 267,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 276,000. The 4-week moving average was 266,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,250. Show More Summary

Lawler: Yellen on Household Formations “Not Keeping Up;” What Is Her Data Source?

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Yellen on Household Formations “Not Keeping Up;” What Is Her Data Source?In Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s surprising “dovish” speech at the Economic Club of New York last week, she noted that a relatively...Show More Summary

FOMC Minutes: Many participants argued "asymmetry made it prudent to wait for additional information"

There were different views - a couple of members expect to raise rates at the next meeting. However many participants argued for a cautious approach.From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 15-16, 2016. Excerpts: Participants generally agreed that the incoming information indicated that the U.S. Show More Summary

Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales Increased 4% YoY, Inventory Declines

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Home Prices and Sales...Show More Summary

Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q1 2016

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was unchanged at 7.8% in Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015, and down slightly year-over-year from 7.9% in Q1 2015. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.For Neighborhood and...Show More Summary

MBA: "Refinance Applications Drive Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Refinance Applications Drive Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 1, 2016....The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Goldman: "Household Formation Close to Normal"

Wednesday:• Early: Reis Q1 2016 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 2:00 PM, The Fed will release the...Show More Summary

Earlier: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 54.5% in March

The March ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 54.5%, up from 53.4% in February. The employment index increased in March to 50.3%, up from 49.7% in February. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the InstituteShow More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q1 to 4.5%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate increased in Q1 2016 to 4.5%, up from 4.4% in Q4, and up from 4.3% in Q1 2015. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.2% in 2014 and early 2015.A few comments...Show More Summary

BLS: Jobs Openings "little changed" in February

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires increased to 5.4 million while separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in February

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit Increased in February to $47.1 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.1 billion in February, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January, revised. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings, ISM non-Mfg

Tuesday:• Early: Reis Q1 2016 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $46.2 billion in February from $45.7 billion in January.• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS. Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q1 to 16.2%

Reis released their Q1 2016 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined to 16.2% in Q1, from 16.3% in Q4. This is down from 16.6% in Q1 2015, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From Reis...Show More Summary

Black Knight February Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for February today. According to BKFS, 4.45% of mortgages were delinquent in February, down from 5.09% in February, and the lowest since April 2007. BKFS also...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

This is amusing. Logan Mohtashami wrote an article on April 1st titled The U.S. Economy Is About To Crash.Although an April Fools joke, Logan told me the post was very popular since most people didn't realize it was a joke because of the title. Show More Summary

The El Niño Bust in California

From Accuweather: El Nino-induced snow proves to be 'disappointing' for drought-stricken CaliforniaMuch-needed mountain snow and rain returned to California this winter, but fell short of expectations amid a super El Niño.The official...Show More Summary

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