Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:14255
Posts / Week:40.1
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

BLS: Jobs Openings at 5.0 million in January, Up 28% Year-over-year

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary There were 5.0 million job openings on the last business day of January, little changed from 4.9 million in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.......Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Show More Summary

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Increased slightly in February

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Rises Despite Falling Sales TrendsThe NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey for February rose 0.1 points to 98.0 a solid result despite some unfavorable...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Job Openings, Small Business Survey

On mortgage rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Tiny Portion of Friday's LossesMortgage rates managed to recover only some of Friday's heavy losses. The most prevalent conventional 30yr rate for top...Show More Summary

Why the Prime Labor Force Participation Rate has Declined

Complaining about the decline in the overall labor force participation rate is the last refuge of scoundrels. A significant decline in the participation rate was expected based on demographics (there is an ongoing debate about how much...Show More Summary

CBO Projection: Budget Deficit to be lower than previous forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their new Updated Budget Projections: 2015 to 2025 Under the assumption that current laws will generally remain unchanged, the budget deficit is projected to decline in 2016, to $455 billion, or 2.4 percent of GDP, and then to hold roughly steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018. Show More Summary

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Starts increase in January

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for January today. According to BKFS, 5.56% of mortgages were delinquent in January, down from 5.64% in December. BKFS reported that 1.61% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.35% in January 2014.This gives a total of 7.17% delinquent or in foreclosure. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From Bloomberg: Greek Tensions Revived as Creditors Reject Reform ListThe list of measures Greece’s government sent to euro region finance ministers last Friday, including the idea of hiring non-professional tax collectors such as tourists,...Show More Summary

Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

An update: Last year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group, Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term...Show More Summary

More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes

By request, a few more employment graphs...Here are the previous posts on the employment report:• February Employment Report: 295,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate• Employment Report Comments and Graphs Duration of Unemployment This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of March 8, 2015

The key economic report this week is February retail sales on Thursday.Also the Census Bureau will release the Q4 Quarterly Services Report on Wednesday, and the Fed will release the Q4 Flow of Funds report on Thursday. ----- Monday, March 9th ----- At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Show More Summary

Update: Best Private Sector Job Creation "Ever"?

Last month, I mentioned that private job creation was on pace for the best ever during a presidential term. I received a few emails asking if that was correct. The answer is "yes".Note: We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in January to $41.8 Billion

Earlier the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.8 billion in January, down $3.8 billion from $45.6 billion in December, revised. Show More Summary

Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Earlier: February Employment Report: 295,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment RateThis was a very solid employment report with 295,000 jobs added, although job gains for January were revised down 18,000. Unfortunately there was little good news...Show More Summary

February Employment Report: 295,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... After revision, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December remained at +329,000, and the change for January was revised from +257,000 to +239,000. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Trade Deficit

Congratulations to my friend, housing economist Tom Lawler, for winning another "Crystal Ball" award (Tom's home price forecasts were the most accurate of their more than 100 expert panelists.). This is Tom's third "Crystal Ball"!Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for February. Show More Summary

Hints of real Wage Increases

A few thoughts... it seems this might be the year that we see an increase in real wages. Here are a few signs:1) The official data suggests we are getting closer to full employment. The unemployment rate (U-3) has fallen to 5.7%, and "quits" are up significantly (voluntary separations). Show More Summary

Goldman February Payrolls Preview

Yesterday I posted a employment preview for February. Here are some excerpts from Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: We expect nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in February, below the consensus forecast of 235k. Labor market indicators...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 320,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending February 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 320,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 313,000. The 4-week moving average was 304,750,Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Stress Test Results

From Greg Ip at the WSJ: Janet Yellen, Forecasting Ace Her forecasts as a Fed official have been strikingly accurate, as the release of 2009 transcripts to the Fed’s deliberations make clear. If she worked on Wall Street, she’d be aShow More Summary

Preview for February Employment Report

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February (with a range of estimates between 200,000 and 252,000),...Show More Summary

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