Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9984
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Goldman: "Market expectations of quick fiscal expansion may be running ahead of political and legislative realities"

A few brief excerpts from analysis by Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips: A Fiscal Boost in 2017: How Much, How Fast? Tax reform has political momentum, which is likely to increase the budget deficit... In light of the election result, we assume that the deficit will increase by more than previously expected. Show More Summary

Comments on October Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.323 Million Annual Rate in OctoberThere was a sharp decline in multi-family starts in the previous month (September), and multi-family bounced back in October. But the big story is single family starts were up again, and there were upward revisions to the prior two months combined. Show More Summary

Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in October

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

Yellen: Rate Hike "appropriate relatively soon"

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C.: The Economic OutlookI will turn now to the implications of recent economic developments and the economic outlook for monetary policy. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 235,000, Lowest since 1973

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 24, 1973 when it was 233,000. Show More Summary

Housing Starts increased to 1.323 Million Annual Rate in October

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,323,000. This is 25.5 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,054,000...Show More Summary

Thursday: Housing Starts, CPI, Yellen, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 257 thousand initial claims, up from 254 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS. Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence at 63 in November

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 63 in November, unchanged from 63 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was at the consensus forecast of 63, and is another solid reading. Click on graph for larger image.

Earlier: Industrial Production unchanged in October

Earlier today from the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production was unchanged in October after decreasing 0.2 percent in September. Although the level of industrial production in September was the same...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in October

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index rebounds after two down monthsAfter seeing consecutive months of contracting demand for the first time in four years, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) saw a modest increase demand for design services. Show More Summary

Today is Tanta's Birthday! Wednesday: PPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey

Happy Birthday T!For new readers, Tanta was my co-blogger back in 2007 and 2008. She was a brilliant, writer - very funny - and a mortgage expert. Sadly, she passed away in 2008, and I like to celebrate her life on her birthday.I strongly recommend Tanta's "The Compleat UberNerd" posts for an understanding of the mortgage industry. Show More Summary

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in September

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. FNC released their September 2016 index data. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. Show More Summary

The Cupboard is Full

The recent economic data has been solid. From Merrill Lynch today: Retail spending surged 0.8% mom in October, building on a 1.0% pop in September (revised up from 0.6%). Core retail sales also came in at a robust 0.8%, which was well above expectations of 0.4%. Show More Summary

NY Fed: November "General business conditions index climbed eight points to 1.5"

Earlier from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyBusiness activity stabilized in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditionsShow More Summary

Retail Sales increased 0.6% in October

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.8 percent from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.3% from October 2015.From the Census Bureau report:The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Retail Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Skyrocket to 4%. New Normal?It's been a long time since anyone could say that top tier conventional conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rates were at 4%. Indeed, even last Monday, the thought of 4% rates would border on preposterous. Show More Summary

Update: U.S. Heavy Truck Sales Slump Over?

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2016 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Show More Summary

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield, Expect 4% Mortgage Rates

Rates are rising with the expectation of much larger deficits next year (tax cuts combined with more spending).With the ten year yield rising to 2.25% today, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 4.1%. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Nov 13, 2016• Goldman: "Economic Implications of the Trump Agenda"Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are up 7 and DOW futures are up 50 (fair value). Show More Summary

Goldman: "Economic Implications of the Trump Agenda"

A few excerpts from an analysis piece by Goldman Sachs economists Sven Jari Stehn and Alec Phillips: • President-elect Trump’s proposals, if enacted, would have significant implications for the US economic outlook over the next few years, some positive and some negative. Show More Summary

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