Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9514
Posts / Week:22.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

June Employment Report: 287,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs and Wages

Earlier my employment preview (I took the under) and Goldman's NFP forecast (Goldman took the over).Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, up from the 38,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May. Show More Summary

Goldman's June NFP Preview

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' June Payroll Preview by economist Zach Pandl:We forecast that nonfarm payroll growth rebounded to +210k in June from just +38k in May. In part the pickup reflects the conclusion of a strike at Verizon Communications—this alone accounts for 70k of the month-over-month swing. Show More Summary

Preview of June Employment Report

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June (with a range of estimates between 135,000 to 233,000, and...Show More Summary

Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 2016, Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declined

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was increased to 7.9% in Q2 2016 from 7.8% in Q1, and unchanged from Q2 2015. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate declined to 9.9% in Q2 2016 from 10.0% in Q1, and down year-over-year from 10.1% in Q2 2015. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declines to 254,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 268,000 to 270,000. Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 172,000 in June

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 172,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:15 AM ET, The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 173,000 added in May. Early: Reis Q2 2016 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Show More Summary

FOMC Minutes: Concerns about slowing Labor Market, Brexit

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 14-15, 2016. Excerpts: Almost all participants judged that the surprisingly weak May employment report increased their uncertainty about the outlook for the labor market. Show More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.5%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.5% in Q2 2016 to 4.5%, unchanged from Q1, and up from 4.2% in Q2 2015. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.2% in 2014 and early 2015.A few comments...Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.5% in June

The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.5%, up from 52.9% in May. The employment index increased in June to 52.7%, up from 49.7% in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management:June...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit at $41.1 Billion in May

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.1 billion in May, up $3.8 billion from $37.4 billion in April, revised. Show More Summary

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Surge in Latest Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Surge in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 1, 2016.... Show More Summary

Mortgage Rates at Record Lows

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• Early, Reis Q2 2016 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.• At 8:30 AM,Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. Show More Summary

The Verizon Strike and the June Employment Report

A large number of Verizon workers went on strike on April 13th, and returned to work on June 1st.What will be the impact on the June employment report?These workers were on strike during the reference period in May and were not be counted as employed in May. Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q2 to 16.0%

Reis released their Q2 2016 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined to 16.0% in Q2, from 16.1% in Q1. This is down from 16.5% in Q2 2015, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From Reis...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in May

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for April. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home...Show More Summary

Ouch: Open-ended UK Property Fund suspends trading

From FT Alphaville: If you voted for Brexit and like open-ended UK property funds, we have some bad newsFrom Standard Life Investments as it suspends trading in its £2.9bn UK real estate fund (one of the UK’s largest) because of post-referendum...Show More Summary

June NFP Forecasts

Happy July 4th!A couple of NFP forecasts...From Nomura: Our June Private Payrolls tracking model ended the month at 124k, a rebound from a dismal reading in May but still below the strong pace of job growth seen previously. We note that our model does not take into account strike workers returning to work in June. Show More Summary

Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2016

At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2016. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2016 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to...Show More Summary

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