Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:7911
Posts / Week:21.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Schedule for Week of May 10, 2015

The key economic report this week is April Retail sales on Wednesday.For manufacturing, the April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the May NY Fed (Empire State) survey will be released this week. ----- Monday, May 11th ----- At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Show More Summary

Bank Failure Friday Returns: 5th Failure in 2015

From the FDIC: Republic Bank of Chicago, Oak Brook, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Edgebrook Bank, Chicago, IllinoisAs of March 31, 2015, Edgebrook Bank had approximately $90.0 million in total assets and $90.0 million in total deposits.... Show More Summary

Lawler: More Builder Results (updated table)

Housing economist Tom Lawler sent me this updated table of builder results for Q1.For these nine builders, net orders were up 20.3% year-over-year. Although cancellations are handled differently, this is about the same year-over-year...Show More Summary

Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q1, Down 30% Year-over-year

Fannie and Freddie reported results this week. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs).From Fannie Mae:We continue to experience disproportionately higher credit losses and serious delinquency rates from single-family loans originated in 2005 through 2008 than from loans originated in other years. Show More Summary

Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Earlier: April Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment RateThis was a decent employment report with 223,000 jobs added, but February and March were revised down by a combined 39,000 jobs.However there is still limited wage...Show More Summary

April Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and construction. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Here is the employment preview I posted earlier: Preview: Employment Report for AprilGoldman Sachs is forecasting 230,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.4%.Merrill Lynch is forecasting 235,000 jobs added in...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales Up 9.3%, Inventory DOWN 13% Year-over-year

For the fifth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. Show More Summary

Goldman Sachs April Employment Preview

Yesterday I discussed several indicators: Preview: Employment Report for AprilSome excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: We expect nonfarm payroll job growth of 230k in April... We expect the unemployment...Show More Summary

Part II: Demographics are Now Improving, Projections

Yesterday I pointed out that a blog post on demographics at the Financial Times would make more sense if it had been written a decade ago.A decade ago it was obvious that demographics would be a drag on the economy. Even without theShow More Summary

Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Increased 5.1% YoY

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports local housing market seeing...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 265,000, Lowest 4-Week average in 15 years

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 279,500, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 283,750. Show More Summary

Demographics are Now Improving

The Financial Times blogs has a blog post about the demographic impact on the U.S. economy: The US economy’s demographic dividend is fast turning into a deficit. A few excerpts. Demographic change is creating major headwinds for the US economy... Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q1, Lowest since Q2 2007

Earlier from the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Fall in First Quarter The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.54 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2015. Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for April

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 220,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April (with a range of estimates between 180,000 and 335,000),Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 169,000 in April

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 169,000 jobs from March to April according to the March ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications increase, Refinance Applications in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease 4.6 % in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications...Show More Summary

Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Near 2015 Highs, Several major Lenders at 4%

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). Show More Summary

Final Update: Recovery Measures

I posted these graphs regularly during the recession and recovery. Here is a final update (until the next recession) to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in March

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports National Homes Prices Rose by 5.6 Percent Year Over Year in February 2015CoreLogic®... Show More Summary

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