Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8877
Posts / Week:22.2
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Monday Night Futures

Note: China's GDP was reported at 6.9% year-over-year, at expectations.Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 17, 2016• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December and Post-Mortem on November• Update: Predicting the Next RecessionMonday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the January NAHB homebuilder survey. Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December and Post-Mortem on November

From housing economist Tim Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally...Show More Summary

Update: Predicting the Next Recession

CR 2016 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession". I repeated the post in January 2015 (and last summer) because of all the recession calls. Now, once again, the recession callers are out in force - this time arguing...Show More Summary

Hamilton: "World oil supply and demand"

Oil prices are still declining with Brent falling below $28 today.Here a few excerpts from an article by Professor James Hamilton: World oil supply and demandAccording to the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review database, world field production of crude oil in September was up 1.5 million barrels a day over the previous year. Show More Summary

Bank Failures by Year

In 2015, eight FDIC insured banks failed. This was the lowest level since 2007.Most of the great recession / housing bust / financial crisis related failures are behind us.However there might be an increase in energy related bank failures...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of January 17, 2016

The key economic reports this week are December housing starts on Wednesday, and December Existing Home Sales on Friday.For prices, CPI will be released on Wednesday. ----- Monday, January 18th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Show More Summary

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 6.0% year-over-year in November

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. FNC released their November 2015 index data. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. Show More Summary

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices "Continued Climb" in November, up 12% year-over-year

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: CRE Prices Continued Upward Climb in November STRONG FUNDAMENTALS AND CAPITAL FLOWS SUPPORTED BROAD CRE PRICE GROWTH IN NOVEMBER. U.S. commercial real estate...Show More Summary

Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.3

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 93.3, up from 92.6 in December: "Consumer confidence inched upward for the fourth consecutive month due to more positive expectations for future economic growth. Show More Summary

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in December

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December, primarily as a result of cutbacks for utilities and mining. The decrease for total industrial production in November...Show More Summary

Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in December

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.1% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.2% from December 2014.From the Census Bureau report:The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic Decreased YoY in December

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December will be released. The consensusShow More Summary

Mortgage News Daily: "Lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates in a range of 3.875% to 4.0%"

Mortgage rates are nears the lows of the last two months...From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Lower as Markets Grow Anxious Ahead of FedYesterday was best described as 'unchanged,' and today's rate sheets were almost imperceptibly weaker. Show More Summary

NMHC: "Apartment Markets Recede in the January NMHC Quarterly Survey"

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Recede in the January NMHC Quarterly SurveyAll four indexes in the January 2015 National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions fell below the breakeven level of 50, indicating a decline over the past quarter. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 284,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 284,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. The 4-week moving average was 278,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 275,750. Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in December: Sales up 19.6%, Inventory down 28% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For a few years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales. Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded"

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and based on information collected on or before January 4, 2016."Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded in nine of the Districts since the previous Beige Book report and contacts in Boston were described as upbeat. Show More Summary

Is Oil "Cheap"?

One year ago today, I wrote Is Oil "Cheap"? Some people were arguing oil was "cheap" with Brent futures at $46 per barrel.I pointed out that oil prices had still increased more than other key items since 1990 and 2000.Below is an update...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 19% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 21.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 8, 2016. Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 8%

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks ofShow More Summary

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