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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13838
Posts / Week:40.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

ISM Manufacturing index at 58.7 in November

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slightly slower expansion in November than in October. The PMI was at 58.7% in November, down from 59.0% in October. The employment index was at 54.9%, down from 55.5% in October, and the new orders...Show More Summary

Monday: ISM Manufacturing

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: A glut of oil?The world is awash in oil, I’m hearing. The problem is, it’s fairly expensive oil....[C]onsider the United States, where production has grown 2 mb/d since 2004. More than 3 mb/d of that growth has come from fracking of oil trapped in tight geologic formations. Show More Summary

WSJ: "Mortgage Lenders Set to Relax Standards"

These are the changes (mostly to reps and warrants) that FHFA Director Melvin Watt discussed in October: Prepared Remarks of Melvin L. Watt, Director, FHFA, At the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual ConventionFrom Joe Light at the WSJ: Mortgage Lenders Set to Relax StandardsSome of the largest U.S. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of November 30th

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the November ISM manufacturing index on Monday, November vehicle sales on Tuesday, the November ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the October Trade Deficit on Friday. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 408 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 28, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: This week, the FDIC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity and updated aggregate figures for their official problem banks. Show More Summary

Possible Headline for Next Friday: "Best Year for Employment since the '90s"

As of the October BLS report, the economy has added 2.225 million private sector jobs, and 2.285 million total jobs in 2014.The consensus is the economy will add another 220 thousand jobs in November (215 thousand private sector jobs). Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Finishing 2014 Strong, Best Year since 2000

From US hotel results for week ending 22 November The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 16-22 November 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 5.5 percent to 60.7 percent. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Strongest November since 2001"

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.Note:...Show More Summary

WTI Crude Oil Falls Below $70

From the WSJ: OPEC Leaves Production Target UnchangedThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its 12 members, who collectively pump around one-third of the world’s oil, would comply with its current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. Show More Summary

Word of the Year

Each year since 2003, Merriam-Webster has listed the Words of the Year mostly based on the frequency that each word was looked up that year.Some years the "words of the year" have been relevant to Calculated Risk, as an example, in 2004 the word of the year was "blog" (CR was started in January 2005 partly because I was wondering what a "blog" was). Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported yesterday that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in October to 1.92% from 1.96% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.48% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in October

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Zillow: Oct. 2014...Show More Summary

Comments on October New Home Sales

The new home sales report for October was below expectations at 458 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Also, sales for the previous three months (July, August and September), were revised down. Sales this year...Show More Summary

New Home Sales at 458,000 Annual Rate in October

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 458 thousand. September sales were revised down from 467 thousand to 455 thousand, and August sales were revised down from 466 thousand...Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.2% in October, Spending increased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $32.9 billion, or 0.2 percent... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 313,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 291,000 to 292,000. Show More Summary

Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income, Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home sales

Earlier the FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 today. Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $38.7 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up $2.6 billion (7.3 percent) from earnings of $36.1 billion the industry reported a year earlier. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since December 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in October to 1.91% from 1.96% in September. Freddie's rate is down from 2.28% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases is ongoing. In November 2013, the Comp 20 index was up 13.8% year-over-year (YoY). Now the index is only up 4.9% YoY. This is the smallest YoY increase since October 2012 (the National...Show More Summary

NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q3 2014, "Deleveraging process has ended"

Here is the Q3 report: Household Debt and Credit Report. From the NY Fed:Aggregate household debt balances increased slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2014. As of September 30, 2014, total household indebtedness was $11.71 trillion, up by 0.7% from its level in the second quarter of 2014, an increase of $78 billion. Show More Summary

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