Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10961
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.8% year-over-year in June

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities)Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Still at 2017 LowsMortgage rates held steady today, as the news cycle was dominated by Hurricane Harvey. That's not to say that natural disasters prevent movement in mortgage rates, but in today's case, there simply wasn't much else to talk about. Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate up Year-over-Year

Note: Hotel occupancy rates increased noticeably following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. I expect the overall occupancy rate will also increase following Hurricane Harvey - and stay elevated for several months. This might even push 2017 into record territory.From STR: US hotel results for week ending 19 AugustThe U.S. Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again" in August

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands AgainTexas factory activity continued to increase in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.9% in June, Up 6.2% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

My thoughts are with the people of south Texas. I was hoping the forecasts were wrong - and the rain and damage wouldn't be this severe - but once again the NHC forecasts were correct.There will be some significant economic impacts from Hurricane Harvey (housing, oil, etc). Show More Summary

August 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 123 Institutions

Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 2017. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for August 2017. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Aug 27, 2017

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the second estimate of Q2 GDP, the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales and the June Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, Aug 28th ----- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. Show More Summary

Oil Rigs "Rig counts rolling off"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Aug 25, 2017:• Continued decline in rig counts• Total US oil rigs were down 4 to 759• Horizontal oil rigs were down 3 at 647...• Drilling Info is showing more optimistic...Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sixth consecutive month below 17 million SAAR

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Friday, September 1st.Note: There were 27 selling days in August 2017, there were 26 in August 2016.From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. Auto Market Continues Downward Trend in August A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Yellen: "Financial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the Crisis"

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Financial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the Crisis. A few excerpts (here Dr. Yellen argues for keeping most of existing regulations put in place after the financial crisis): Is This Safer System Supporting...Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in July

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was at 0.85%, unchanged from 0.85% in June. Freddie's rate is down from 1.08% in July 2016.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Friday: Durable Goods, Jackson Hole Symposium, Yellen Speech

Here is the program for the 2017 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 5.7% decrease in durable goods orders.• At 10:00 AM ET, Speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Foreclosure inventory below 400,000 for the first time since February 2007

CR Note: The month-to-month increase in delinquencies is mostly seasonal (happens every July).From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at July 2017 Mortgage Data• Foreclosure inventory fell by 12,000 in July, bringing...Show More Summary

A Few Comments on July Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slide 1.3 Percent in July"First, as usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's estimate was much closer to the NAR report than the consensus. So the decline in sales in July was no surprise for CR readers.Inventory is still very low and falling year-over-year (down 9.0% year-over-year in July). Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate in Q2 at Lowest Level Since 2000

From the MBA: Delinquencies and Foreclosures Continue to Decline in Q2 2017The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.24 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2017. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Moderately" in August

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded ModeratelyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the...Show More Summary

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slide 1.3 Percent in July"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slide 1.3 Percent in JulyListings in July typically went under contract in under 30 days for the fourth consecutive month because of high buyer demand, but existing-home sales ultimately pulled backShow More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 234,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending August 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 240,500. Show More Summary

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 236 thousand initial claims, up from 232 thousand the previous week.• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Show More Summary

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