Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:7769
Posts / Week:21.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Zillow: February Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to be about the same as in January

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From...Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.5% in March

The March ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.5%, down from 56.9% in February. The employment index increased in March to 56.6%, up slightly from 56.4% in February. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the...Show More Summary

Black Knight February Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Rate still "175 percent above pre-crisis norms"

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for February today. According to BKFS, 5.36% of mortgages were delinquent in February, down from 5.56% in January. BKFS reported that 1.58% of mortgages were...Show More Summary

Monday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

From CNBC: Jobs shocker may show economy is in real troubleThe economic data has been weak recently - and Q1 GDP will be weak. This might be due to a combination of seasonal factors, poor weather, the West Cost port slowdown, the stronger...Show More Summary

More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes

By request, a few more employment graphs...Here are the previous posts on the employment report:• March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate• Employment Report Comments and Graphs Duration of Unemployment This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of April 5, 2015

This will be a light week for economic releases. ----- Monday, April 6th ----- 10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 56.7, down from 56.9 in February. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Show More Summary

Update: Private Job Creation during Presidential Terms

In February, I mentioned that private job creation was on pace for the best ever during a presidential term. I received a few emails asking if that was correct. The answer was "yes". After the report this morning, the current presidential...Show More Summary

Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate declined in Q1

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was decreased to 7.9% in Q1 2015 from 8.0% in Q4. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate decreased to 10.1% in Q1, from 10.2% in Q4. Show More Summary

Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Earlier: March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment RateThis was a disappointing employment report with 126,000 jobs added, and downward revisions to the January and February reports (combined were 69,000 less than previously...Show More Summary

March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade, while mining lost jobs.... Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Here was an employment preview I posted earlier: Preview for March Employment ReportFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 247,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 295,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February. Show More Summary

Preview for March Employment Report

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 247,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March (with a range of estimates between 200,000 and 271,000),Show More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate decreased in Q1 to 4.1%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate declined in Q1 2015 to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in Q4 2014, and the same as in Q1 2014. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.A few comments from Reis Senior Economist and Director of Research Ryan Severino:The apartment market pulled a bit of a surprise during the first quarter of 2015. Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in February to $35.4 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $35.4 billion in February, down $7.2 billion from $42.7 billion in January, revised. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 268,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 268,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 282,000 to 288,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

Update to "It never rains in California"... from the Sacramento Bee: Jerry Brown orders mandatory water reductions amid California drought With California slogging into its fourth year of withering drought, Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.05 million annual rate in March

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.05 million SAAR in March. That is up 3.8% from March 2014, and up 5.5% from the 16.2 million annual sales rate last month.From John Sousanis at Wards Auto: March 2015 U.S. Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 0.1% in February

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in February:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during February 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $967.2 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised January estimate of $967.9 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index declined to 51.5 in March

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slower expansion in March than in February. The PMI was at 51.5% in March, down from 52.9% in February. The employment index was at 50.0%, down from 51.4% in February, and the new orders index was...Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q1 to 16.6%

Reis released their Q1 2015 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined in Q1 to 16.6% from 16.7% in Q4 2014. This is down from 16.9% in Q1 2014, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.FromShow More Summary

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