Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8058
Posts / Week:21.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Comments on May Housing Starts

Total housing starts in May were below expectations, however, overall, including the upward revisions to March and April, starts were solid.There was also a significant increase for permits in May (mostly for the volatile multi-family sector). Show More Summary

CoreLogic: "CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015"

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015CoreLogic... today released new analysis showing 254,000 properties regained equity in the first quarter of 2015, bringing the totalShow More Summary

Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 11.1 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,165,000, but...Show More Summary

4% Sustained GDP Growth?

Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. Total housing starts increased to 1.135 million (SAAR) in April. Single family starts increased to 733 thousand SAAR in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.090 million (SAAR) in May.There has been some discussion if sustained 4% growth in the U.S. Show More Summary

ECRI's Admits Incorrect Recession Call

This weekend I updated: Predicting the Next Recession.In that post, I noted that I hadn't seen ECRI admit their recent series of recession calls were incorrect. Actually they have admitted an incorrect call, and here is their recent admission (ht M): The Greater ModerationIn line with the old adage, “never say never,” [ECRI's] September 2011 U.S. Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From the NAHB: Builder...Show More Summary

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. The decline in April was larger than previously reported, but the rates of change for...Show More Summary

NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "conditions worsened slightly" in June

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyThe June 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions worsened slightly for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to -2.0, its second negative reading in the past three months. Show More Summary

Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting RatesWhile investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s...Show More Summary

Reports on Greek Tragedy: Meeting Fails

Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse“Greek movement [is] not discernible,” said a senior eurozone official. Show More Summary

Update: Predicting the Next Recession

Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch". I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago). This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.A few thoughts on the "next recession"... Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015

The key economic report this week is May Housing Starts on Tuesday.For manufacturing, the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the June NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly surveys will be released this week. For prices, May CPI will be released on Thursday.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Show More Summary

Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: June FOMC Preview: On Track... the signal from the June FOMC meeting will be especially important. The overarching message from the meeting will probably be that September...Show More Summary

Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May

Economist Tom Lawler sent me a preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in May.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline inShow More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Homes Sales in May: Big Bounce from “Strangely-Low” April

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released thru today, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual...Show More Summary

FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike

First a preview from Nomura economists: The monetary policy statement released at the conclusion of the 16-17 June FOMC meeting should not have substantive changes. We expect the Committee to upgrade its assessment of economic activity, which it described as having slowed in the April statement. Show More Summary

Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment increases to 94.6

Click on graph for larger image. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June was at 94.6, up from 90.7 in May.This was above the consensus forecast of 91.2.

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices declined in April, Up Solidly YoY

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for June). Show More Summary

Lawler on NAR: The “Curious Case” of Existing Home Sales in the South in April

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The National Association of Realtor’s preliminary report on existing home sales in April came in well short of both consensus and those who track local realtor/MLS reports. For analysts in the latter...Show More Summary

Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High

The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2015 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q1 compared to Q4:The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $84.9 trillion during the first quarter of 2015. Show More Summary

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