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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13992
Posts / Week:40.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

FOMC Minutes: "Participants would want to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back toward 2 percent over time"

Participants expressed more concern about low inflation and the FOMC might wait on rate hikes until they are "reasonably confident that inflation will move back toward 2 percent over time".From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 16-17, 2014. Show More Summary

Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declined in Q4, Regional Mall Vacancy Rate Increased

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was increased to 8.0% in Q4 2014 from 7.9% in Q3. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate decreased to 10.2% in Q4, from 10.1% in Q3. Show More Summary

Trade Deficit declines in November to $39.0 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $39.0 billion in November, down $3.2 billion from $42.2 billion in October, revised. Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 241,000 in December

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 241,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 9.1 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2015. Show More Summary

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes

For fun, here are Byron Wien's Ten Surprises for 2015. Here are a few:1. The Federal Reserve finally raises short-term interest rates, well before the middle of the year, encouraged by the improving employment data and strong Gross Domestic Product growth. Show More Summary

30 Year Mortgage Rates fall to 3.68%, Down almost 100bps year-over-year

With the rally in the Ten Year today - yields declined to 1.89% mid-day and closed at 1.96% - the 30 year mortgage rate also declined, and is now down almost 100bps from a year ago.From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Opportunity Knocks as Mortgage Rates Surge LowerMortgage rates are on an absolute tear. Show More Summary

Office Vacancy Rate and Office Investment

Yesterday I noted that Reis reported the office vacancy rate declined to 16.7% in Q4 from 16.8% in Q3.A key question is when will new office investment increase significantly. Investment has been increasing - and adding to GDP - but investment is still very low. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.2% in December

The December ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.2%, down from 59.3% in November. The employment index decreased in December to 56.0%, down from 56.7% in November. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From theShow More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.5% Year-over-year in November

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic...Show More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 4.2%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was unchanged in Q4 at 4.2%, the same as in Q3. In Q4 2013 (a year ago), the vacancy rate was also at 4.2%, and the rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.Some comments from Reis Senior Economist Ryan Severino:The national vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.2% during the fourth quarter. Show More Summary

Tuesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

For fun, here is a graph (click on graph for larger image) from Doug Short and shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high...Tuesday:• Early: Reis Q4 2014 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.• At 10:00 AM ET, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for November. Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.8 million annual rate in December

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.75 million SAAR in December. That is up 8.8% from December 2013, and down 1.7% from the 17.09 million annual sales rate last month. Click on graph for larger image. This...Show More Summary

WTI Crude Oil Falls Close to $50 per Barrel

From Business Insider: Oil Keeps FallingUS crude and Brent futures dropped to fresh 5-1/2-year lows Monday as worries about a surplus of global supplies amid weak demand continued to drag on oil markets.At 4.20pm GMT (11.20 am ET), West...Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 16.7%

Reis released their Q4 2014 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined in Q4 to 16.7% from 16.8% in Q3 2014. This is down from 16.9% in Q4 2013, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From Bloomberg: U.S. Show More Summary

Monday: Vehicle Sales

Starting in 2009, there were always a large number of analysts predicting the Fed would raise rates very soon (not me) - until Bernanke and the FOMC stopped that speculation when they included the following phrase in the August 2011Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of January 4, 2015

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.Other key reports include December vehicle sales on Monday, the December ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday, and the November Trade Deficit on Wednesday.Also, Reis will release their quarterly surveys of rents and vacancy rates for offices, apartments and malls. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 400 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 2, 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: This past Monday, the FDIC released an update on its enforcement action activities through November 2014. Show More Summary

Rosenberg and the "Lunatic Fringe"

A funny quote today from Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg via CNBC: Rosenberg: Perma-bears on the 'lunatic fringe'"There are segments of the perma-bear community that literally live their lives on the lunatic fringe," Rosenberg wrote... Show More Summary

Hotels: Strong Finish to 2014, Best Year since 2000

From STR: US results for week ending 27 DecemberThe U.S. hotel industry recorded mostly positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 21-27 December 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy was flat at 44.4 percent. Show More Summary

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