Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11387
Posts / Week:22.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Richmond and Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Expansion Solid in December

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Moderate Growth in DecemberAccording to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fifth District manufacturing firms saw moderate growth in December....Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Monday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Dec 24, 2017Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October (note: Some sites show this released on Wednesday during the Holidays) The consensus is for a 6.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for October.• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. Show More Summary

Oil Rigs "A modest gain in horizontal oil rigs"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Dec 22, 2017:• Total US oil rigs were flat at 747• Horizontal oil rigs, however, were up 1 to 655• Horizontal rigs saw quite a bit of shuffling, with the major basins +10 and the minor basins -9. Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year, 2017 will be Record Occupancy Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 December The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 10-16 December 2017, according to dataShow More Summary

Schedule for Week of December 24th

This will be a light week for economic data.Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! ----- Monday, Dec 25th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of the Christmas Holiday. ----- Tuesday, Dec 26th ----- 9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller...Show More Summary

Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR Again in December

The automakers will report December vehicle sales on Wednesday, Jan 3rd.Note: There are 26 selling days in December 2017, there were 27 selling days in December 2016.From WardsAuto: December U.S. Forecast: Market Will Hit 17.5 Million...Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 8 states in November; Alabama, California, Hawaii, Mississippi and Texas at New Series Lows

First, on migration from Puerto Rico, an except from analysis by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill (this will have impacts on Puerto Rico, and on employment in the U.S. mainland):A quarter of a million Puerto Ricans have already relocated...Show More Summary

A few Comments on November New Home Sales

New home sales for November were reported at 733,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well above the consensus forecast, and the highest sales rate since July 2007. However the three previous months were revised...Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Continued at a Solid Pace" in December

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Growth Continued at a Solid PaceThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the December Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist...Show More Summary

New Home Sales increase to 733,000 Annual Rate in November

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 733 thousand. The previous three months combined were revised down significantly (October was revised down from 685 thousand toShow More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.3% in November, Spending increased 0.6%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $54.0 billion (0.3 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...Show More Summary

Friday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods and More

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. Show More Summary

Goldman on "Fiscal Boost"

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips: Overall, the legislation is somewhat more front-loaded than the earlier Senate version, and as a result we expect it will boost growth slightly more in 2018. We estimate...Show More Summary

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in November due to Hurricanes

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at November 2017 Mortgage Data: Continued Hurricane-Driven Effects Lead to Largest 90-Day Delinquency Increase in Nine Years• 90-day delinquent mortgage inventory spiked 13 percent in November,...Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Solid Growth" in December

Earlier from the Philly Fed: December 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. Show More Summary

Q3 GDP Revised down to 3.2% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)eal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 245,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending December 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 234,750. Show More Summary

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2017 (Third estimate). Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 11% YoY

A little last this month... but this is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) OverallShow More Summary

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