Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10363
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Tuesday: Trade Deficit

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rate Losing Streak PausesAfter moving higher for 5 days in a row, mortgage rates finally moved a bit lower today [4.24% 30 year fixed on top tier]. The improvement was fairly small,...Show More Summary

February NFP Forecasts

A couple of NFP forecasts...From Nomura: Incoming data on the labor market suggest strong job gains in February. Data on sentiment, including the Empire State, Philly Fed and ISM manufacturing surveys, point to better hiring activity in February. Show More Summary

Update: It Does Rain in California!

California has endured a five year drought, but for much of the state, the drought is over.Here are a few resources to track the rain and snow.These tables show the snowpack in the North, Central and South Sierra. Currently the snowpack...Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage "Origination volumes in 2016 highest level seen in nine years"

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for January today. According to BKFS, 4.25% of mortgages were delinquent in January, down from 5.09% in January 2016. BKFS also reported that 0.94% of mortgages...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Mar 5, 2017From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are down 8, and DOW futures are down 68 (fair value). Oil prices were down slightly over the last week with WTI futures at $53.24 per barrel and Brent at $55.90 per barrel. Show More Summary

Oil: "Another big week for horizontal rigs"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Feb 4, 2017:• US oil rig count up by 7 this week to 609• US horizontal oil rigs were up by 11...• Horizontal oil rigs adds have averaged 12 per week for the last seven...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Mar 5, 2017

The key report this week is the February employment report on Friday.Also the January Trade Deficit, and the Q4 Quarterly Services and the Fed's Q4 Flow of Funds reports, will be released this week. ----- Monday, Mar 6th ----- 10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for January. Show More Summary

AAR: Rail Traffic increased in February

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. rail intermodal traffic in February 2017 was 1,068,439 containers and trailers, up 1.8% (19,350 units) over February 2016 and the best February ever for U.S. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.6% in February

The February ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.6%, up from 56.5% in January. The employment index increased in February to 55.2%, from 54.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply...Show More Summary

Yellen: "a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate" at March Meeting

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: From Adding Accommodation to Scaling It Back Excerpt: [W]e currently judge that it will be appropriate to gradually increase the federal funds rate if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect. Show More Summary

Friday: Yellen, ISM Non-Mfg Index

This will be a closely watched speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. It appears that the FOMC is leaning towards raising rates this month.Friday:• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for index to increase...Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in January

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 1.20% in January, from 1.20% in December. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.55% in January 2016.This ties last month as the lowest serious...Show More Summary

Demographics: Renting vs. Owning

Note; This is an update to a post I wrote in 2015.It was almost 7 years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. Show More Summary

Merrill on Possible March Fed Hike

Expectations of a March rate hike have increased significantly over the last few days. Some market based measures now show an 80%+ chance of a rate hike.A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research: The market has moved dramatically in the past two days to price in a hike at the March meeting. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 223,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending February 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 31, 1973 when it was 222,000. Show More Summary

Duy: On the Fed, Possible March Rate Hike, and Dudley

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg: Timing of the Next Fed Rate Hike Is Now a Balancing ActWill they or won’t they? Bond traders are now pricing in odds above 75 percent that Federal Reserve policy makers will raise interest rates when they meet...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.5 million annual rate in February

Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 17.47 million SAAR in February.That is down about 1% from February 2016, and unchanged from last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the...Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: Modest to Moderate expansion, Tight labor markets

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on information collected on or before February 17, 2017."Reports from all twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace from early January through mid-February.... Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased in January

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in January:Construction spending during January 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,180.3 billion, 1.0 percent below the revised December estimate of $1,192.2 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increased to 57.7 in February

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in February. The PMI was at 57.7% in February, up from 56.0% in January. The employment index was at 54.2%, down from 56.1% last month, and the new orders index was at 65.1%, up from 60.4%.From...Show More Summary

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