Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10562
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, ISM non-mfg Survey

A few excerpts from an FOMC preview by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: • We expect the FOMC to keep policy unchanged next week and see only limited changes to the statement.• Similar to the March statement, we expect constructive...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.8 million annual rate in April

Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto (and some CR calculations), light vehicle sales were at a 16.79 million SAAR in April.That is down 3% from April 2016, and up 1.6% from last month. Click on graph for larger image. ThisShow More Summary

Q1 2017 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q1 advance GDP report.The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 9.4% annual pace in Q1. This is a turnaround from early last year when non-residential investment declined due to less investment in petroleum exploration. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.1% Year-over-year in March

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Auto Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly HigherMortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, keeping them in line with the previous 4 business days. This 5-day block stands out from the...Show More Summary

Black Knight on Mortgages "19 Percent of Active HELOCs Are Scheduled to Reset in 2017"

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today. According to BKFS, 3.62% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 4.08% in March 2016. BKFS also reported that 0.88% of mortgagesShow More Summary

Construction Spending decreased in March

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in March:Construction spending during March 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,218.3 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised February estimate of $1,220.7 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 54.8 in April

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in April. The PMI was at 54.8% in April, down from 57.2% in March. The employment index was at 52.0%, down from 58.9% last month, and the new orders index was at 54.8%, down from 64.5%.From...Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.2% in March, Spending increased less than 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $40.0 billion (0.2 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $5.7 billion (less than 0.1 percent)....Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. Show More Summary

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Apr 30, 2017Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to be unchanged.• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for April. Show More Summary

April 2017: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 151 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for April 2017. During the month, the list dropped from 151 to 148 institutions after four removals and one addition. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Apr 30, 2017

The key report this week is the April employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the April ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, April auto sales, and the March Trade Deficit. ----- Monday, May 1st ----- 8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for March. Show More Summary

Goldman: U.S. Economy "now at full employment"

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Daan Struyven: On a broad range of measures, the US economy is now at full employment. Headline unemployment has fallen below most estimates of the structural rate,...Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in March, Lowest since Feb 2008

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.12% in March, from 1.19% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.44% in March 2016.This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since February 2008.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Show More Summary

OIl: "Yet another strong week" for Rig Count

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Apr 28, 2017:• Total US oil rigs were up 9 to 697• US horizontal oil rigs surged at twice the ‘call’ pace, up 11 to 592• Next week, horizontal oil rigs will reach the full ‘call’ analysts have penciled in for this cycle. Show More Summary

Chicago PMI increases in April

Earlier, the Chicago PMI: April Chicago Business Barometer at 58.3 vs 57.7 in March The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015.“The April Chicago report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth. Show More Summary

Q1 GDP: Investment

First, the soft Q1 GDP data is part of a recent trend of weak first quarters, and was mostly due to weak PCE and inventory adjustment - no worries. It was pretty clear that PCE would be weak in Q1 (see two-month method). However investment...Show More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 0.7% Annualized Rate in Q1

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2017 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.2 percent on April 27, down from 0.5 percent on April 18. The forecast of first-quarter...Show More Summary

HVS: Q1 2017 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2017. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. Show More Summary

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