Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11175
Posts / Week:22.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Oil Rigs "Rig counts rebounded modestly this week"

CR Note: Oil prices increased today with WTI at $53.90 per barrel, and Brent at $60.55. If those prices hold, we might see a pick up in the rig count going forward.A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on...Show More Summary

Five Economic Questions I'm Frequently Asked

Here are five questions that people ask me all the time.1. Are house prices in a bubble? Short answer: No.2. Is a recession imminent (within the next 12 months)? No.3. Is the stock market a bubble? I rarely comment on the stock market directly...4. Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate increases YoY

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 21 OctoberThe U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 15-21 October 2017, according to data from...Show More Summary

Q3 GDP: Investment

The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends toShow More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.0% Annualized Rate in Q3

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

Friday: GDP

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow (as of Oct 26th)The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on October 26, down from 2.7 percent on October 25. The forecast...Show More Summary

Goldman: "On Course for a December Hike"

CR Note: The FOMC meets next week, and no change to policy is expected. However it appears another rate hike is coming at the December meeting.A few brief excerpts from a piece by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: On Course for a...Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Posts Strong Growth" in October

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Posts Strong GrowthThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the October Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist atShow More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index unchanged in September, Down 3.5% Year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Flatten in SeptemberPending home sales were unchanged in September, but activity declined on an annual basis both nationally and in all major regions, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 233,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Now Up an Eighth of a Point From Last WeekMortgage rates continued higher at a relatively fast pace today, pushing farther into the highest levels since early July. As of this afternoon, the average lender is right in line with those rate offerings from July. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in September

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 37 states and decreased in 13, for a three-month diffusion index of 48. Show More Summary

A few Comments on September New Home Sales

New home sales for September were reported at 667,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well above the consensus forecast, and the highest sales rate since October 2007. The three previous months were revised up slightly.There was clearly some rebound following hurricane Harvey. Show More Summary

New Home Sales increase to 667,000 Annual Rate in September

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 667 thousand. The previous three months combined were revised up slightly."Sales of new single-family houses in September 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Wednesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in durable goods orders.• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for August 2017. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate increased in September

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was at 0.86%, up from 0.84% in August. Freddie's rate is down from 1.02% in September 2016.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR in October

The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Wednesday, Nov 1st.Note: There are 25 selling days in October 2017, there were 26 selling days in October 2016.From WardsAuto: U.S. Forecast: October Auto Sales Rate Flat with Prior-Year A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer "Bounces Back" in October

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Bounces Back, Following Historic September StormsThe Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading...Show More Summary

Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Remained Positive in October"

From the Richmond Fed: Reports on Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Remained Positive in OctoberReports on Fifth District manufacturing activity remained positive in October, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Show More Summary

"Mortgage Rates Holding Recent Highs to Begin Week"

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Holding Recent Highs to Begin WeekMortgage rates were generally unchanged today despite slight improvements in underlying bond markets. As of last Friday, the average lenderShow More Summary

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