Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9734
Posts / Week:22.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate shows gain in August

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data & Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues Ascent in AugustThe Dodge Momentum Index grew 1.3% in August to 134.9 (2000=100), from its revised July reading of 133.2. Show More Summary

When are people with Foreclosures and Short Sales eligible to borrow again?

CR Note: I'm asked this question frequently, so here is a repost...Some information from mortgage broker Solyent Green is People:For people with foreclosures or short sales on their record, the waiting period depends on if there areShow More Summary

Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.5 percent on September 2, up from 3.2 percent on September 1. From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe...Show More Summary

"Most lenders continue to offer 30yr fixed quotes around 3.375% on top tier scenarios"

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Rise Thanks to EuropeMortgage Rates bounced higher today, bringing them back in line with the pervasive range of the past several weeks. As of yesterday, rates were technically at 2-week lows. Show More Summary

EIA: "The average pump price for December is on track to be the lowest for the month in eight years"

The EIA released the Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday. From the STEO: • Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $46/barrel (b) in August, a $1/b increase from July. This was the fourth consecutive month in which Brent...Show More Summary

Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down 15%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Home Sales Increasing...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 259,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending September 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 263,000. The 4-week moving average was 261,250, a...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 14%, Inventory up 3% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in August. This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: "Upward wage pressures increased and were moderate on balance"

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and based on information collected on or before August 29, 2016."Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace on balance during the reporting period of July through late August. Show More Summary

Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 150,000 jobs

The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 150,000 fewer payroll jobs as of March 2016. The final revision will be published when the January 2017 employment report is released in February 2017. Usually the preliminary...Show More Summary

BLS: Job Openings increased in July to Record High

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed...Show More Summary

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Slightly Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 2, 2016.... Show More Summary

Wednesday: JOLTS, Beige Book, Preliminary Annual Employment Benchmark Revision

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in June to 5.624 million from 5.514 million in May. Show More Summary

My interview with Barry Ritholtz

When I was in New York last week, I had the opportunity to sit down with Barry Ritholtz for almost two hours. It was a great discussion (Barry was too kind).From Ritholtz at Bloomberg: Bill McBride and the Case for FactsThis week onShow More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 51.4% in August

The August ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 51.4%, down from 55.5% in July. The employment index decreased in August to 50.7%, down from 51.4% in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.0% Year-over-year in July

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home...Show More Summary

Black Knight July Mortgage Monitor: "Purchase Lending Highest Since 2007"

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for July today. According to BKFS, 4.51% of mortgages were delinquent in July, down from 4.67% in July 2015. BKFS also reported that 1.09% of mortgages were...Show More Summary

Tuesday: ISM non-Mfg Index

Tuesday:• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 55.0 from 55.5 in July.• Also at 10:00 AM, The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Weekend:•...Show More Summary

August Employment Revisions

Two years ago, in 2014, the BLS initially reported job gains in August at 142,000. Douglas Holtz-Eakin wrote "Disaster!". I couldn't help myself and made fun of Holtz-Eakin.Not only wasn't the initial August 2014 report a "disaster", but it has since been revised up to 218,000. Show More Summary

Sunday Night: Happy Labor Day!

Some good news for those sitting in a traffic jam on Labor Day, from the EIA: Gasoline prices prior to Labor Day lowest in 12 yearsThe U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline was $2.24/gallon (gal) on August 29, the lowest price on the Monday before Labor Day since 2004, and 27¢/gal lower than the same time last year. Show More Summary

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