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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:12809
Posts / Week:41.9
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Chicago PMI declines to 55.9

From the Chicago ISM: March 2014: The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.9 points in March to 55.9, the lowest level since August, led by a decline in New Orders and a sharp fall in Employment.... Although New Orders remained firm above the 50 breakeven level, they eased for the second consecutive month pointing to a slight softening in demand. Show More Summary

Monday: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Mfg Survey, Yellen

Monday:• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 58.5, down from 59.8 in February.• At 9:55 AM, Speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Strengthening Communities, At the 2014 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference, Chicago, Ill.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March. Show More Summary

Merrill and Nomura on March Employment Report

Here are some excepts from two research reports... first, from Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch: We expect a solid jobs report in March with payroll growth of 230,000, reflecting a weather-induced snapback. We saw a modest recovery in job growth in February, with acceleration to 175,000 from 129,000 in January and 84,000 in December. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 538 Institutions, Q1 2014 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for March 28, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The FDIC released its enforcement action activity through February 2014 today as anticipated. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of March 30th

This will be a busy week for economic data with several key reports including the March employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, February vehicle sales on Tuesday, the ISM serviceShow More Summary

Headline for Next Friday: "U.S. Private Employment at All Time High"

Just a quick note, private U.S. employment is currently 129 thousand below the pre-recession peak. With the release of the March employment report next Friday, private employment will probably be at an all time high.However total employment is still 666 thousand below the pre-recession peak due to all the government layoffs. Show More Summary

Housing: The increase in inventory in the West

Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has inventory for a number of cities. Right now we are seeing inventories up sharply year-over-year in several cities in the West. Note: Housing Tracker is reporting total inventory is up slightly year-over-year in Las Vegas. Show More Summary

BLS: State unemployment rates were "little changed" in February

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in February. Twenty-nine states had unemployment rate decreases from January, 10 states had increases, and 11 states and the District of Columbia had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

Final March Consumer Sentiment at 80.0

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March decreased to 80.0 from the February reading of 81.6, and was up slightly from the preliminary March reading of 79.9. This was below the consensus forecast of 80.5. Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.3% in February, Spending increased 0.3%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $47.7 billion, or 0.3 percent... in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased...Show More Summary

Friday: February Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for March). Show More Summary

House Prices and Lagged Data

Two years ago I wrote a post titled House Prices and Lagged Data. In early 2012, I had just called the bottom for house prices (see: The Housing Bottom is Here), and in the "lagged data" post I was pointing out that the Case-ShillerShow More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing increased in March

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the March Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index down 10.5% year-over-year in February

From the NAR: February Pending Home Sales Continue SlideThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, dipped 0.8 percent to 93.9 from a downwardly revised 94.7 in January, and is 10.5 percent below February 2013 when it was 104.9. Show More Summary

Q4 GDP Revised up to 2.6%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 311,000

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2013 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 4th quarter and annual 2013 Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located...Show More Summary

Thursday: Q4 GDP (3rd Estimate), Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

From the Federal Reserve: Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it has approved the capital plans of 25 bank holding companies participating in the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: March Rebound

Auto sales were clearly impacted by the harsh winter weather in January and February. For an excellent article on weather and auto sales, see Weakening Economy or Just Bad Winter? by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi. Now we will see if sales rebound...Note: The automakers will report March vehicle sales on Tuesday, April 1st. Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer for March Suggests "continued modest growth"

Here is a new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Equity Prices Drive Chemical Activity Barometer Growth Despite Continued Adverse WeatherWhile...Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since February 2009

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in February to 2.29% from 2.34% in January. Freddie's rate is down from 3.15% in February 2013, and this is the lowest level since February 2009. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase, Refinance Applications Decrease

From the MBA: Purchase Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 3.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey...Show More Summary

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