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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13751
Posts / Week:40.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 419 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 7, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Surprising these days to have a bank failure in three out of the past four weeks, but that is just what happened. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of November 9th

The key economic report this week is October retail sales on Friday.The MBA is expected to release the Q3 National Delinquency Survey on Thursday. ----- Monday, November 10th ----- At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the new monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Show More Summary

Update: 2015 Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.The NAR released their forecast yesterday: Home Sales Expected to Improve in 2015, but Some...Show More Summary

Bank Failure #17 in 2014: El Paseo Bank, Palm Desert, California

From the FDIC: Bank of Southern California, N.A., San Diego, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Frontier Bank, FSB, d/b/a El Paseo Bank, Palm Desert, California As of June 30, 2014, Frontier Bank, FSB had approximately $86.4 million in total assets and $82.1 million in total deposits.... Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 2%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up only 6%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in October were up 2.5% year-over-year. Show More Summary

Commentary: Politics and Jobs

I enjoy economics, but I hate politics.We all have different values and interests, so it is natural that we disagree on some public policy. An open and honest debate would be healthy. But politics is negative, destructive and dishonest.Yesterday the Speaker warned the President not to "poison the well" of goodwill by taking action on immigration. Show More Summary

Comments: Solid Employment Report, Seasonal Retail Hiring at Record Level

Earlier: October Employment Report: 214,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment RateThis was another solid report with 214,000 jobs added, and job gains for August and September were revised up. This was the ninth consecutive month over 200,000, and an all time record 49th consecutive month of job gains. Show More Summary

October Employment Report: 214,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +180,000 to +203,000, and the change for September was revised from +248,000 to +256,000. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Yesterday I posted a summary of the monthly October employment related data: Preview: Employment Report for October. Overall the data has been positive.From Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: We forecast nonfarm payroll job growth of 235k in October, in line with consensus and slightly above the three-month average of 224k. Show More Summary

Lawler: Fannie, Freddie in Q3

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Fannie Mae reported that GAAP net income in the quarter ended September 30, 2014 was $3.9 billion, while “comprehensive income” was $4.0 billion. As a result, in December Fannie Mae will make a dividend...Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence improves for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3

This is a quarterly index from the the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and is similar to the overall housing market index (HMI). The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low. Show More Summary

Las Vegas Real Estate in October: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 26%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports dip in local home prices...Show More Summary

Trulia: Asking House Prices up 6.4% year-over-year in October

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: What Home Price Slowdown? Some Markets Buck the TrendNationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 1.0% in October. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 6.4%, down from the 10.6% year-over-year increase in October 2013. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 278,000, 4-Week Average lowest since April 2000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 287,000 to 288,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From NDD: A little post-election-day economic balm If Washington can simply manage to do absolutely nothing to the economy in the next two years, except to agree to pay already incurred debts (a/k/a lift the debt ceiling), then we are...Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for October

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October (range of estimates between 200,000 and 282,000), and...Show More Summary

Bankruptcy Filings declined 13% in Fiscal 2014, Lowest Filings in Seven Years

From the US Court: Fiscal Year Bankruptcy Filings Lowest in Seven YearsBankruptcy cases filed in federal courts for the fiscal year 2014—the 12-month period ending September 30, 2014—totaled 963,739, down 13 percent from the 1.1 million bankruptcy filings in FY 2013, according to statistics released today by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.1% in October

The October ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.1%, down from 58.6% in September. The employment index increased in October to 59.6%, up from 58.5% in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute...Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 230,000 in October

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 230,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change inShow More Summary

Wednesday: ISM Non-Mfg Index, ADP Employment

From the WSJ: What Falling Exports Mean for U.S. Economic Growth In response to Tuesday’s trade report (in addition to weak construction and factory orders data), economists are reducing the estimates for third-quarter real GDP growth. Show More Summary

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