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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13724
Posts / Week:40.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Construction Spending decreased 0.4% in September

Earlier the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in September:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during September 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950.9 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised August estimate of $955.2 billion.. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in October

The ISM manufacturing index suggests faster expansion in October than in September. The PMI was at 59.0% in October, up from 56.6% in September. The employment index was at 55.5%, up from 54.6% in September, and the new orders indexShow More Summary

Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for September

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to BKFS, 5.67% of mortgages were delinquent in September, down from 5.90% in August. BKFS reported that 1.76% of mortgages were...Show More Summary

Monday: ISM Mfg, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

From the SacBee: Sacramento gas prices under $3 per gallon are part of nationwide trendAAA reported that the average gas price nationally dropped by 33 cents in October, reaching $2.99 on Saturday. That was the first time in four years...Show More Summary

Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales

Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales.At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales.First, here is the NRF forecast for...Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported yesterday that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in September to 1.96% from 1.99% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.55% in September 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of November 2nd

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the October ISM manufacturing index and October vehicle sales, both on Monday, the September Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and September ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 422 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 31, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: As expected, the FDIC provided an update on its enforcement action activities. Show More Summary

Friday Night: Kudlow makes me laugh ... again!

Larry Kudlow wrote an absurd piece at CNBC today.Of course Kudlow is usually wrong and frequently absurd... as an example, in June 2005 Kudlow wrote "The Housing Bears are Wrong Again" and called me (or people like me) "bubbleheads".Homebuilders led the stock parade this week with a fantastic 11 percent gain. Show More Summary

Q3 GDP: Investment Contributions

This is one of my favorite GDP graphs. The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because...Show More Summary

Q3 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report today.Investment in single family structures is now back to being the top category for residential investment (see first graph). Home improvement was the top category for twenty one consecutive quarters following the housing bust... Show More Summary

Preliminary: 2015 Housing Forecasts

The NAHB released their 2015 housing forecast today. Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. Show More Summary

Final October Consumer Sentiment at 86.9, Chicago PMI increases to 66.2

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 86.9, up from the preliminary reading of 86.4, and up from 84.6 in September.This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 86.4. Show More Summary

BEA: Personal Income increased 0.2% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.5% year-over-year

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent... in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased...Show More Summary

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

From Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Rebound, Remain Below Four Percent Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher across the board this weekShow More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy up 5.4%, RevPAR up 10.8% Year-over-Year

From STR: US results for week ending 25 OctoberThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 19-25 October 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 5.4 percent to 69.4 percent. Show More Summary

Lawler: MDC Results and Homebuilder Summary Table

From housing economist Tom Lawler: M.D.C. Holdings: Net Orders Up, Orders per Community Down; Margins Fall on Higher IncentivesM.D.C. Holdings reported that net home orders in the quarter ended September 30, 2014 totaled 1,081, up 17.0% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 287,000, 4-Week Average lowest since May 2000

Earlier the DOL reported:In the week ending October 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 283,000 to 284,000. Show More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate...Show More Summary

Thursday: Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims

From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 2.7 percent on October 28From Chico Harlan at the WaPo: Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will give a better read on the U.S. Show More Summary

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