Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:7769
Posts / Week:21.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

ADP: Private Employment increased 189,000 in March

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 189,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Applications Up 8% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 27, 2015....The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Auto Sales, ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending and more

Wednesday:• 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since September 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in February to 1.83% from 1.86% in January. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.27% in February 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008. Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in February

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Softer sales offset by stronger optimism in February's RPIDespite dampened sales and customer traffic levels as a result of extreme weather in parts of the country, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) held relatively steady in February. Show More Summary

A Comment on House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In January 2015, the index was up 4.5% YoY. However the YoY change has only declined slightly...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.5% year-over-year in January

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3 month average of November, December and January prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI

From the WSJ: Fed’s Fischer Floats Ideas for Regulating Shadow Banks The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official floated a series of ideas for regulating nonbank financial companies, the latest indication that top U.S. policy makers are focusing...Show More Summary

Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%

Note: This is a repeat of a post I wrote early this year. Based on some recent comments I've seen, I think this is worth repeating.For amusement, I checked out the WSJ opinion page comments on the Q4 GDP report. As usual, the WSJ opinion...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Texas factory activity declined in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell to -5.2, posting its first negative reading in nearly two years. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 3.1% in February, up 12% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rise in February Behind Solid Gains in Midwest, WestThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.1 percent to 106.9 in February from a slight downward revision of 103.7 in January and is now 12.0 percent above February 2014 (95.4). Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.4% in February, Spending increased 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.4 percent... in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)increased...Show More Summary

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg

From the NY Times: A Deadline for Greece, and U.S. Jobs DataGreece hopes to gain approval on Monday for a detailed list of economic changes that its international creditors have demanded...... recent economic data has been anemic, and it is likely that hiring has not kept up with the blistering pace of gains reached in late 2014. Show More Summary

Lawler: Possible Upside Surprise for Pending Home Sales Index

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release Pending Home Sales for February tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index. Housing economist Tom Lawler mentioned in his existing home sales forecast a week ago:...Show More Summary

Merrill and Nomura Forecasts for March Employment Report

Here are some excepts from two research reports... first from Merrill Lynch: The recent employment reports have been exceptionally strong with job growth averaging 293,000 a month for the past six months. Although we expect a slight moderation in March with job growth of 270,000, this would still be a healthy number. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of March 29, 2015

The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the February Personal Income and Outlays report on Monday, March ISM manufacturing index also on Wednesday, March vehicle sales on Wednesday,...Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list decline to 349 Institutions in March, Q1 2015 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for March 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for March 2015. Show More Summary

Hotels: On Pace for Best Year on Record

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 21 MarchThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 15-21 March 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 3.2 percent to 69.3 percent. Show More Summary

Yellen: Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives. Excerpts: Why Might an Increase in the Federal Funds Rate Be Warranted Later This Year?The Committee's decision about when to begin reducing accommodation will depend importantly on how economic conditions actually evolve over time. Show More Summary

BLS: Twenty-Six States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in February

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were little changed in February. Twenty-six states had unemployment rate decreases from January, 6 states and the District of Columbia had increases, and 18 states had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

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