Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9979
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Off-topic: Acceptance and Response

I've spoken to several young adults today, and they are in shock and experiencing overwhelming grief about the election. How could this happen in America? And what can we do?I've also spoken to older adults, and they are terrified by the echoes of history. Show More Summary

Merrill on October Retail Sales

Retail sales for October will be released next Tuesday. The consensus forecast is for sales to increase 0.6% month-over-month.From Merrill Lynch: Consumer spending accelerated in October, according to internal aggregated BAC credit and debit card data. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Decrease in Q3

From the MBA: Delinquencies and Foreclosures Decrease in Latest SurveyThe delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased 14 basis points to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.52 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2016. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 254,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 265,000. The 4-week moving average was 259,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst Day For Mortgage Rates in Over 3 YearsMortgage Rates skyrocketed today, relative to their average range of movement. It was the single biggest move higher since the days of the taper tantrum in mid-2013. Show More Summary

The Future is still Bright!

In January 2013 I wrote The Future's so Bright.... In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic. I updated that post earlier this year (with a discussion of demographics).For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy...Show More Summary

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "moves higher" in October

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data & Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Moves Higher in OctoberThe Dodge Momentum Index grew 4.1% in October to 133.6 from its revised September reading of 128.3 (2000=100). Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 13%, Inventory up 1% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.Inventory was up 1.0% year-over-year in October. This was the eighth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. Show More Summary

Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics from Large Publicly Traded Home Builders

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Below is a table showing selected operating results of large publicly-traded builders for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.In aggregate these seven large builders showed combined net home orders of 24,648 last quarter, up 8.4% from the comparable quarter of 2015. Show More Summary

Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 5.5% YoY, Inventory down Sharply

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Housing Market CoolsShow More Summary

BLS: Job Openings increased slightly in September

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires edged down to 5.1 million...Show More Summary

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in October

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): October 2016 Report: Small Business Economic TrendsThe Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.8 points to 94.9, still in the 94 range that has bound it for the past five months...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Election Day, Job Openings

A few truths: Trump lies repeatedly, he knows nothing about economics, and he is a disgusting person (his comments were not locker room comments). And his threat to jail his political opponent will be discussed and criticized for centuries.Back in May, I wrote A Comment on Litmus Test Moments. Show More Summary

Fed Letter: "Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?"

From Fernanda Nechio and Glenn D. Rudebusch at the San Francisco Fed: Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?Last December, monetary policy analysts inside and outside the Fed expected several increases in short-term interest rates this year. Show More Summary

Fed Survey: "Banks reported stronger demand for most categories of RRE home-purchase loans"

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2016 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesRegarding loans to businesses, the October survey results indicated that, on balance, banks left their standards on commercial and...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Nov 6, 2016Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). • At 2:00 PM, the October 2016 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.• At 3:00 PM, Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Nov 6, 2016

This will be a light week for economic data.The key event will be the US election on Tuesday. ----- Monday, 7th ----- 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). 2:00 PM ET: the October 2016 Senior...Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is another update of an earlier post through the October 2016 employment report including all revisions.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). Show More Summary

Trade Deficit at $36.4 Billion in October

Earlier from the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $36.4 billion in September, down $4.0 billion from $40.5 billion in August, revised. Show More Summary

Comments: Solid October Employment Report, Pickup in Wage Growth

The headline jobs number was decent. Job growth was somewhat below the consensus forecast (161,000 vs forecast of 170,000), however job growth for August and September were revised up - and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%.Show More Summary

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