Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8050
Posts / Week:21.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased in May

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small business optimism level is finally back to a normal levelThe Index of Small Business Optimism increased 1.4 points to 98.3... May is the best reading since the 100.4 December reading but nothing to write home about. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Job Openings

The endless Greek tragedy continues, from the WSJ: Greece, Creditors Discuss Extending Bailout in Bid to Break DeadlockThe eurozone’s portion of Greece’s €245 billion ($276 billion) rescue program runs out at the end of June, raising...Show More Summary

Tenth Anniversary of Greenspan's "Froth" Testimony

For fun... tomorrow is the tenth anniversary of then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's "Froth" testimony on June 9, 2005: Although a "bubble" in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely, there do appear to be, at a minimum,...Show More Summary

Labor Force Participation Rate: There are few "Missing 41-Year-Olds"

Every month, with the release of the employment report, we see commentary that says "the labor force participation rate is at or near a 30 year low". Duh! That was expected based on demographics and is not worth reading (Note: the participation...Show More Summary

Merrill and Goldman Expect GDP to Rebound in Q2

Some excerpts from two research reports...From Merrill Lynch: To everything, there is a seasonAfter a dismal start to the new year, we think that the worst is behind us. At its low, our tracking model for 1Q GDP pegged growth at -1.2%; now it is tracking -0.2%. Show More Summary

Black Knight April Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for April today. According to BKFS, 4.77% of mortgages were delinquent in April, up from 4.70% in March. BKFS reported that 1.51% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.02% in April 2014.This gives a total of 6.28% delinquent or in foreclosure. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: New Housing Headwind Looms as Fewer Renters Can Afford to OwnDemographics tell the story. Urban Institute researchers predict that more than 3 in 4 new households this decade, and 7 of 8 in the next, will be formed by minorities. Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales Up 11.4%, Inventory DOWN 15% Year-over-year

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.For the sixth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of June 7, 2015

The key economic report this week is May Retail sales on Thursday. ----- Monday, June 8th ----- At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). ----- Tuesday, June 9th ----- 9:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May. Show More Summary

CBO: Fiscal 2015 Federal Deficit through May about 10% below Last Year

More good news... the budget deficit in fiscal 2015 will probably be lower than the recent CBO March forecast.From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today: Monthly Budget Review for May 2015The federal government ran a budget deficit of $368 billion for the first eight months of fiscal year 2015, CBO estimates. Show More Summary

Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015, New Construction Increasing

From STR: US results for week ending 30 May The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 24-30 May 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 2.2 percent to 63.5 percent. Show More Summary

May Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Earlier: May Employment Report: 280,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment RateThis was a solid employment report with 280,000 jobs added, and March and April were revised up by a combined 32,000 jobs.There was even some hints of wage growth, from the BLS: "In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $24.96. Show More Summary

May Employment Report: 280,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Here is the employment preview I posted earlier: Preview: Employment Report for MayAnd some comments on various employment indicators: Public and Private Employment DataGoldman Sachs is forecasting 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment...Show More Summary

Lawler: Characteristics Homes Built in 2014; Construction of “Moderately-Sized” SF Homes Remained Low in 2014.

From Housing economist Tom Lawler:Earlier this week the Census Bureau released its annual report on the Characteristics of New Housing Units Completed/Sold for 2014. The report, based on data collected from the Survey of Construction,...Show More Summary

Public and Private Employment Data

Some readers have wondered about the accuracy of the monthly BLS employment report. The report is based on a survey of households, and reports from businesses - for differences see: Household vs. Establishment Series - and the establishment...Show More Summary

NFP: Goldman Sachs, Nomura May Employment Previews

Yesterday I discussed several indicators: Preview: Employment Report for MaySome excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: We forecast a 210k gain in nonfarm payrolls in May, a bit below consensus of 226k and down slightly from April's pace of increase.... Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 276,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 282,000 to 284,000. Show More Summary

Mortgage Rates increase to 4.1%

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 276 thousand from 282 thousand.• Also at 8:30 AM, Productivity and Costs for Q1. The consensus is for...Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for May

Another month, another employment report...On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 220,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of...Show More Summary

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