Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10657
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Friday: GDP

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.9% decrease in durable goods orders.• Also at 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus...Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in April

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states and decreased in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Modestly" in May

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded ModestlyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 234,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

Some interesting analysis from Josh Lehner at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis: States at Full Employment, A Prime-Age EPOP StoryThe key economic question economists are trying to answer today is whether or not the U.S. economy is at full employment. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in April

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at April 2017 Mortgage Data• First-lien mortgage delinquencies rose by 13 percent, the largest monthly increase since November 2008• Month-over-month, the number of borrowers...Show More Summary

FOMC Minutes: More details on Balance Sheet Reduction

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 2-3, 2017. Excerpts: Participants continued their discussion of issues related to potential changes to the Committee's policy of reinvesting principal payments from securities held in the SOMA. Show More Summary

A Few Comments on April Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.3 Percent in April"Two key points:1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus. The NAR reported sales of 5.57 million SAAR, Lawler projected 5.56 million SAAR, and the consensus was 5.67 million SAAR. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in April

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Design billings increasing entering height of construction seasonAfter beginning the year with a marginal decline, the Architecture Billings Index has posted three consecutive months of growth in design revenue at architecture firms. Show More Summary

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.3 Percent in April"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slip 2.3 Percent in April; Days on Market Falls to Under a MonthTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Refis Apps Up, Purchase Apps Slightly Down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 4.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 19, 2017.... Show More Summary

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes and More

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales,...Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer increases in May

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Remains Strong but Hints at Slowing Pace of Economic Growth and Business Activity Into 2018The Chemical...Show More Summary

Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Mostly Unchanged in May

Earlier from the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Firms were Somewhat Less Upbeat about Activity in May Compared to Prior MonthsManufacturers in the Fifth District were somewhat less upbeat in May than in the prior three months, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Show More Summary

A few Comments on April New Home Sales

New home sales for April were reported at 569,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well below the consensus forecast, however the three previous months combined were revised up significantly. Overall this was...Show More Summary

New Home Sales decrease to 569,000 Annual Rate in April

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 569 thousand. The previous three months combined were revised up significantly."Sales of new single-family houses in April 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Tuesday: New Home Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Low and Sideways, Mortgage Rates Play Waiting GameMortgage rates were slightly higher for the 3rd straight day, continuing a modest bounce back from the year's lowest rates last Wednesday....While the general movement in rates has been slightly higher, it hasn't lifted rates much above 2017's lows. Show More Summary

Merrill: "Revising down our inflation forecasts"

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: Revising down our inflation forecasts After two consecutive disappointing CPI reports, it is clear that inflation is now set for a slower finish this year. After refreshing our models,...Show More Summary

Chicago Fed "Increased Economic Growth in April"

From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Increased Economic Growth in AprilLed by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.49 in April from +0.07 in March. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 21, 2017Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are up 3, and DOW...Show More Summary

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