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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13460
Posts / Week:41.1
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

ECB's Draghi: Unemployment in the euro area

From ECB President Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole: Unemployment in the euro areaNo one in society remains untouched by a situation of high unemployment. For the unemployed themselves, it is often a tragedy which has lasting effects on their lifetime income. Show More Summary

ATA Trucking Index increased 1.3% in July

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 1.3% in JulyAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 1.3% in July, following a decrease of 0.8% the previous month. Show More Summary

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% year-over-year in May

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.9 (2.4 billion vehicle miles) for May 2014 as compared with May 2013. Travel for the month is estimated to be 264.2 billion vehicle miles.Cumulative...Show More Summary

Fed Chair Yellen: Unemployment Rate "somewhat overstates" Improvement in Labor Market

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy. Excerpts: One convenient way to summarize the information contained in a large number of indicators is through the use of so-called factor models. Show More Summary

Lawler: Fannie Survey on How Lenders “Adapt” to ATR/QM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group released the results of a recent survey of senior mortgage executives designed to see how mortgage lenders had and/or would “adapt” to the new Ability-To-Repay (ATR) and Qualified Mortgage (QM) standards that become effective January 10, 2014. Show More Summary

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increases to 28 in August, Highest since March 2011

Earlier from the Philly Fed: August Manufacturing Survey The diffusion index of current general activity increased from a reading of 23.9 in July to 28.0 this month. The index has increased for three consecutive months and is at itsShow More Summary

Existing Home Sales in July: 5.15 million SAAR, Inventory up 5.8% Year-over-year

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Continue to Climb in JulyTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million in July from a slight downwardly-revised 5.03 million in June. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 298,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 311,000 to 312,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Unemployment Claims

From Andrew Ross at the San Francisco Chronicle: Household income hasn't shared in recoveryAs of June, median annual household income was 4.8 percent below December 2007, when the recession began, dropping from $56,000 to $54,000. Going...Show More Summary

Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in July.Comments from CR: Tom Lawler has been sending me this table every month for several years. I think it is very useful for looking at the trend for distressed sales and cash buyers in these areas. Show More Summary

FOMC Minutes: Most Participants will wait for more data

Note: Most participants want to see more data - and several are still concerned that inflation is too low.From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29-30, 2014. Excerpts: With respect to monetary policy over the...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in July, "Highest Mark Since 2007"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Reaches Highest Mark Since 2007The last three months have shown steadily increasing demand for design services and the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) is now at its highest level since 2007. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

Wednesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• During the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial...Show More Summary

Early Look at 2015 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

The BLS reported this morning:The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 234.525 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index fell 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Show More Summary

Key Measures Show Low Inflation in July

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

A few comments on July Housing Starts

This was a solid report for housing starts in July.There were 585 thousand total housing starts during the first seven months of 2014 (not seasonally adjusted, NSA), up 9.1% from the 563 thousand during the same period of 2013. Single family starts are up 3%, and multi-family starts up 24%. Show More Summary

Housing Starts increase to 1.093 million Annual Rate in July

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,093,000. This is 15.7 percent above the revised June estimate of 945,000 andShow More Summary

Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: In Phoenix, a Realty Check as Market ModeratesAmong the cities most battered by the 2006 bust, Phoenix was the first to snap back in 2011. Prices, off by 56% from peak, then rebounded sharply, trimming that drop by a third. Show More Summary

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased 10% year-over-year in June

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Steadily Advance In Second Quarter CCRSI COMPOSITE PRICE INDICES ADVANCED STEADILY IN SECOND QUARTER. Despite a modest pull-back in June 2014, CCRSI’s value-weighted U.S. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic: A little soft due to strike in July

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for June since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. IMPORTANT: There was a 5 day trucker strike at both the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles that probably impacted traffic. Show More Summary

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