Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8259
Posts / Week:21.9
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.3% year-over-year change in June

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released on Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Maintain...Show More Summary

Q2 GDP: Investment

The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 267,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 267,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 255,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 278,500. Show More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.3% Annualized Rate in Q2

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2015 (Advance Estimate); Includes Historical Revisions Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes...Show More Summary

Thursday: Q2 GDP and Revisions, Unemployment Claims

The GDP revisions will be especially important this year.Excerpts from a research piece by Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch: The moment of truth• The annual revision to GDP growth on July 30th will adjust estimates of growth over the past few years. Show More Summary

Duy on FOMC: "Somewhat more hawkish as the Fed gears up to hike rates later this year"

From Tim Duy: FOMC RecapThe July FOMC meeting yielded the widely expected outcome of no policy change. Very little change in the statement either - pulling out any useful information is about as easy as reading tea leaves or chicken bones. Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy, No Clues for September

FOMC Statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Show More Summary

How large will the first Fed Funds Rate increase be?

Just wondering...No one expects a rate hike from the FOMC today. And most of the focus has been on WHEN the first rate hike will happen - and also how quickly the Fed will subsequently raise rates. Note: Most analysts expect the first...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.8% in June, up 8% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dip in JuneAfter five consecutive months of increases, pending home sales slipped in June but remained near May's level, which was the highest in over nine years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 18% YoY

From the MBA: Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 24, 2015....The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC, Pending Home Sales

A few excerpts from an FOMC preview by Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl: The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is shaping up to be the calm before the storm. Short-term interest rate markets imply a zero probability that the committee will raise policy rates next week, but show a high likelihood of at least one hike before the end of the year. Show More Summary

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May

A great discussion from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Are Home Prices Again Breaking Records? Not Really The National Association of Realtors‘ monthly home sales report made a big splash last week with news that median home prices in June...Show More Summary

HVS: Q2 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2015. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.4% year-over-year in May

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. Although this is the May report, it is really a 3 month average of March, April and May prices. The consensus is for a 5.6% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts for July: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best July in a Decade

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Monday, August 3rd. Sales in June were at 17.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in July will be over 17 million SAAR again. Note: There were 26 selling days in July, the same as in July 2014. Show More Summary

ATA Trucking Index decreased 0.5% in June

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.5% in JuneAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.5% in June, following a revised gain of 0.8% during May. Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Slump Moderates"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Slump Moderates, Outlooks Improve Texas factory activity declined slightly in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index,...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.1% in May, 5.1% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.From Black Knight: U.S. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From Ben Leubsdorf and Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Officials May Offer More Clarity on RatesFederal Reserve officials are likely to emerge from their policy meeting Wednesday with short-term interest rates still pinned near zero,Show More Summary

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