Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11403
Posts / Week:22.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

A few Comments on November New Home Sales

New home sales for November were reported at 733,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was well above the consensus forecast, and the highest sales rate since July 2007. However the three previous months were revised...Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Continued at a Solid Pace" in December

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Growth Continued at a Solid PaceThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the December Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist...Show More Summary

New Home Sales increase to 733,000 Annual Rate in November

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 733 thousand. The previous three months combined were revised down significantly (October was revised down from 685 thousand toShow More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.3% in November, Spending increased 0.6%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $54.0 billion (0.3 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income...Show More Summary

Friday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods and More

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.• Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. Show More Summary

Goldman on "Fiscal Boost"

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips: Overall, the legislation is somewhat more front-loaded than the earlier Senate version, and as a result we expect it will boost growth slightly more in 2018. We estimate...Show More Summary

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in November due to Hurricanes

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at November 2017 Mortgage Data: Continued Hurricane-Driven Effects Lead to Largest 90-Day Delinquency Increase in Nine Years• 90-day delinquent mortgage inventory spiked 13 percent in November,...Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Solid Growth" in December

Earlier from the Philly Fed: December 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing conditions continued to improve. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive this month and increased from their readings last month. Show More Summary

Q3 GDP Revised down to 3.2% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)eal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 245,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending December 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 234,750. Show More Summary

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 234 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2017 (Third estimate). Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 11% YoY

A little last this month... but this is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) OverallShow More Summary

A Few Comments on November Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Soar 5.6 Percent in November"A few key points:1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index Increases in November

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings upturn shows broad strengthEven with the uncertainty related to pending tax reform legislation that...Show More Summary

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Soar 5.6 Percent in November"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Soar 5.6 Percent in November to Strongest Pace in Over a DecadeExisting-home sales surged for the third straight month in November and reached their strongest pace in almost 11 years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.52 million SAAR, up from 5.48 million in October. Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in November: Sales down 3% YoY, Active Inventory up 8% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes...Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer Increased in December

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: 2017 Closes with Strong Commercial and Industrial Activity Suggesting Healthy Business Growth Through Third Quarter 2018The Chemical...Show More Summary

Comments on November Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.297 Million Annual Rate in NovemberThe housing starts report released this morning showed starts were up 3.3% in November compared to October, and starts were up 12.9% year-over-year compared to November 2016. Show More Summary

Housing Starts increased to 1.297 Million Annual Rate in November

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. This is 3.3 percent above the revised October estimate of 1,256,000 and is 12.9 percent above the November 2016 rate of 1,149,000. Show More Summary

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