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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13871
Posts / Week:40.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts

A few more updates...Update 12/2/2014 added CoreLogic.Update 11/26/2014 for Merrill Lynch (minor downward revisions) and Fannie Mae (Noveber update, no changes)Update 11/24/2014: I've added Metrostudy's forecast.Update: I've added the MBA and Goldman Sachs forecasts. Show More Summary

Construction Spending increased 1.1% in October

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in October:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.1% Year-over-year in October

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Auto Sales, Construction Spending

Oh no! From the WSJ: Dodgy Home Appraisals Are Making a ComebackAn estimated one in seven appraisals conducted from 2011 through early 2014 inflated home values by 20% or more, according to data provided to The Wall Street Journal by Digital Risk Analytics, a subsidiary of Digital Risk LLC. Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index increased in October

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Registered Gain in OctoberDriven by stronger sales and traffic and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in October. Show More Summary

Housing: Demographics for Renting and Buying

It was over four years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. (note: the beginning...Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index at 58.7 in November

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slightly slower expansion in November than in October. The PMI was at 58.7% in November, down from 59.0% in October. The employment index was at 54.9%, down from 55.5% in October, and the new orders...Show More Summary

Monday: ISM Manufacturing

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: A glut of oil?The world is awash in oil, I’m hearing. The problem is, it’s fairly expensive oil....[C]onsider the United States, where production has grown 2 mb/d since 2004. More than 3 mb/d of that growth has come from fracking of oil trapped in tight geologic formations. Show More Summary

WSJ: "Mortgage Lenders Set to Relax Standards"

These are the changes (mostly to reps and warrants) that FHFA Director Melvin Watt discussed in October: Prepared Remarks of Melvin L. Watt, Director, FHFA, At the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual ConventionFrom Joe Light at the WSJ: Mortgage Lenders Set to Relax StandardsSome of the largest U.S. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of November 30th

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the November ISM manufacturing index on Monday, November vehicle sales on Tuesday, the November ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the October Trade Deficit on Friday. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 408 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 28, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: This week, the FDIC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity and updated aggregate figures for their official problem banks. Show More Summary

Possible Headline for Next Friday: "Best Year for Employment since the '90s"

As of the October BLS report, the economy has added 2.225 million private sector jobs, and 2.285 million total jobs in 2014.The consensus is the economy will add another 220 thousand jobs in November (215 thousand private sector jobs). Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Finishing 2014 Strong, Best Year since 2000

From US hotel results for week ending 22 November The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 16-22 November 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 5.5 percent to 60.7 percent. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Strongest November since 2001"

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.Note:...Show More Summary

WTI Crude Oil Falls Below $70

From the WSJ: OPEC Leaves Production Target UnchangedThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its 12 members, who collectively pump around one-third of the world’s oil, would comply with its current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. Show More Summary

Word of the Year

Each year since 2003, Merriam-Webster has listed the Words of the Year mostly based on the frequency that each word was looked up that year.Some years the "words of the year" have been relevant to Calculated Risk, as an example, in 2004 the word of the year was "blog" (CR was started in January 2005 partly because I was wondering what a "blog" was). Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported yesterday that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in October to 1.92% from 1.96% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.48% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in October

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Zillow: Oct. 2014...Show More Summary

Comments on October New Home Sales

The new home sales report for October was below expectations at 458 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Also, sales for the previous three months (July, August and September), were revised down. Sales this year...Show More Summary

New Home Sales at 458,000 Annual Rate in October

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 458 thousand. September sales were revised down from 467 thousand to 455 thousand, and August sales were revised down from 466 thousand...Show More Summary

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