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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13255
Posts / Week:41.3
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.6% YoY on July 7th

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory... There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data released was for May). Show More Summary

Duy: "Inflation Hysteria Redux"

From Tim Duy at Economist's View: Fed Watch: Inflation Hysteria Redux. Excerpt:It is simply difficult for me to become too worried about inflation given the history of the past twenty years - twenty years in which the US economy was at times substantially outperforming the current environment no less. Show More Summary

Demographics and Behavior

Imagine if you were born in 1900. You'd have a 23% chance of dying before age 20 (a 13% change before age 1). You'd have a 38% chance of dying before age 45 (see first two graphs below).Compare that to kids born recently. You'd have about a 1% chance of dying before age 20, and about a 4% chance of dying before age 45. Show More Summary

Dorms as "Parents' Home": The long term trends for higher enrollment

On Friday I noted an article by Derek Thompson in the Atlantic: The Misguided Freakout About Basement-Dwelling MillennialsMore than 15.3 million twentysomethings—and half of young people under 25—live "in their parents’ home," according to official Census statistics.There's just one problem with those official statistics. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

On inflation: I'm sympathetic to people like Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider who is looking for signs of inflation increasing; I'm starting to look for signs of real wage increases and inflation too. I just think inflation isn't a...Show More Summary

Is Inflation Coming?

Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider writes: These Three Charts Show Inflation Is Finally Right Around The CornerAfter this week's strong Jobs Report, it's becoming conventional wisdom that the economy is heating up for real this time....Show More Summary

More Employment Graphs: Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Construction Employment and Diffusion Indexes

Thursday on the employment report:• June Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate• Comments on Employment ReportA few more employment graphs by request... Duration of Unemployment This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 465 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 3, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Generally a quiet week for the Unofficial Problem Bank List with three removals but none from failure as no one expected the FDIC to close on bank on the July 4th weekend. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of July 6th

This will be a very light week for economic data. ----- Monday, July 7th ----- No economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, July 8th ----- 7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June. 10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS. Show More Summary

The Kids are Alright: Living in Dorms counted as Living in Parents' Home

An interesting point from Derek Thompson at the Atlantic: The Misguided Freakout About Basement-Dwelling MillennialsMore than 15.3 million twentysomethings—and half of young people under 25—live "in their parents’ home," according to official Census statistics.There's just one problem with those official statistics. Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the June employment report.Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change. Show More Summary

Mid-Year Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014

At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2014. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2014 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and then try to understand why I was wrong).By request, here is a mid-year review. Show More Summary

Correcting WSJ Graph Error on Wages

For fun, here is an incorrect graph on wages from the WSJ today: U.S. Jobs Report: 288,000 Positions Added Click on graph for larger image. This graph just looked wrong (one on the right). If wages had to increase from $22.15 per hour...Show More Summary

Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for May

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS, formerly the LPS Data & Analytics division) released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to BKFS, 5.62% of mortgages were delinquent in May, unchanged from April. BKFS reports...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in May to $44.4 Billion

Catching up... the Department of Commerce reported this morning:[T]otal May exports of $195.5 billion and imports of $239.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $44.4 billion, down from $47.0 billion in April, revised....Show More Summary

Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate declined slightly in Q2, Regional Malls Unchanged

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was unchanged at 7.9% in Q2 2014. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate declined slightly to 10.3% from 10.4% in Q1. Show More Summary

Comments on Employment Report

Earlier: June Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment RateTotal employment increased 288,000 from May to June, and is now 415,000 above the previous peak. Private payroll employment increased 262,000 from May to June, andShow More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declines to 56.0%

The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.0%, down from 56.3% in May. The employment index increased in June to 54.4%, up from 52.4% in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply...Show More Summary

June Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 288,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +282,000 to +304,000, and the change for May was revised from +217,000 to +224,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM Service

Thursday will feel like a Friday - all day!Thursday:• Early, Reis Q2 2014 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 211,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, down from the 217,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May. Show More Summary

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