Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11069
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Sept 24, 2017Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.From...Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate just Behind Record Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 SeptemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 10-16 September 2017, according to data...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Sept 24, 2017

The key economic report this week is New Home sales for August on Tuesday.Other key indicators include the third estimate of Q2 GDP, and July Case-Shiller house prices. ----- Monday, Sept 25th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. Show More Summary

Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR in September

The automakers will report September vehicle sales on Tuesday, October 3rd.Note: There were 26 selling days in September 2017, there were 25 in September 2016.From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Surpass 17 Million in September A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Showed Improvement" in September

Earlier from the Philly Fed: September 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing conditions in September. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month and suggest a broadening of growth. Show More Summary

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q2

The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2017 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q2 2017 compared to Q1 2017:The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $96.2 trillion during the second quarter of 2017. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increase in Hurricane Affected Areas

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at August 2017 Mortgage Data: Hurricane Harvey Impact Already Being Felt in the Mortgage Market as Delinquencies Jump 16 Percent in Affected Areas• Nationally, delinquencies remained relatively...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: "2.8 million Homes still in negative equity" at end of Q2 2017

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 2.8 Million Residential Properties with a Mortgage Still in Negative EquityCoreLogic®... today released its Q2 2017 home equity analysis which shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63 percent...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 259,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 284,000 to 282,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month After FedMortgage rates rose today following the announcement and--more importantly--the Fed's updated economic projections.... Investors weren't sure how the past few months of economic data and events would affect the rate hike outlook. Show More Summary

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

Statement here. "In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program".Yellen press conference video here.On the projections, projections for GDP in 2017 were increased. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors...Show More Summary

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Subside 1.7 Percent in August "

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Subside 1.7 Percent in August Existing-home sales stumbled in August for the fourth time in five months as strained supply levels continue to subdue overall activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index "growth streak" continues in August

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index continues growth streakWith all geographic regions and building project sectors showing positive...Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Existing Home Sales

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer "Holds Steady" in September

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Holds Steady; Storms Likely to Cause Future Revisions The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading...Show More Summary

Comments on August Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.180 Million Annual Rate in AugustThe housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down 0.8% in August compared to July (July was revised up), and starts were up 1.4% year-over-year compared to August 2016. Show More Summary

Housing Starts decreased to 1.180 Million Annual Rate in August

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,180,000. This is 0.8 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,190,000, but is 1.4 percent above the August 2016 rate of 1,164,000. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Housing Starts

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Continue Pushing Recent HighsMortgage rates resumed their recent uptrend today, after taking a quick break to end the week last Friday. The result is another push up to the highest levels in just over 3 weeks. Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in AugustBased on publicly-available state and local realtor reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated...Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate increases following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

From STR: Hurricane Irma’s initial impact on hotel marketsSTR data shows Florida hotel markets that were evacuated before the arrival of Hurricane Irma experienced significant performance decreases, but the destinations...Show More Summary

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