Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9602
Posts / Week:22.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased Slightly in June, up 1.0% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Marginally Rise in JunePending home sales were mostly unmoved in June, but did creep slightly higher as supply and affordability constraints prevented a bigger boost in activity from mortgage rates that lingered near all-time lows through most of the month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods

Here was my FOMC preview: FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike, Possibly Preparing for September Rate HikeFrom Merrill Lynch on the FOMC: The July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to result in any policy changes by the Fed, in our view. Show More Summary

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in MayThe year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In May, the index was up 5.0% YoY.In...Show More Summary

A few Comments on June New Home Sales

The new home sales report for June was strong at 592,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest since early 2008 - and combined sales for March, April and May were revised up by 22 thousand SAAR.Sales were up 25.4% year-over-year (YoY) compared to June 2015. Show More Summary

New Home Sales increased to 592,000 Annual Rate in June, Highest since 2008

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 592 thousand. The previous three months were revised up by a total of 22 thousand (SAAR)."Sales of new single-family houses in June 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in May

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and...Show More Summary

Black Knight's First Look at June Mortgage Data

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at June Mortgage Data: Foreclosure Starts Up for Second Consecutive Month; Prepays Rise on Historically Low Rates• Despite June’s increase, first-time foreclosure startsShow More Summary

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. Although this is the May report, it is really a 3 month average of March, April and May prices. The consensus is for a 5.6% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May. Show More Summary

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in June

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in June.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. Show More Summary

FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike, Possibly Preparing for September Rate Hike

The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected.There will no economic projections released at this meeting, and there is no scheduled press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (in the unlikely event...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Stabilizes" in July

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity StabilizesTexas factory activity held steady in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.1% in May, Up 5.4% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 24, 2016• The Future is Still Bright!Monday:• At 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P and DOW futures are down slightly...Show More Summary

The Future is still Bright!

Three and a half years ago I wrote The Future's so Bright.... In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic. It is time for another update!For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy when I started this blog in 2005 - back then I wrote mostly about housing (see: LA Times article and more here for comments about the blog). Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of July 24, 2016

The key reports this week are the first estimate of Q2 GDP, June New Home sales, and the Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.The FOMC is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change in policy is expected this week.For manufacturing, the July Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released this week. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR in July

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Tuesday, Aug 2nd.Note: There were 26 selling days in July, the same as in July 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: July Sales to Return to 17 Million SAAR Trend A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 JulyThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 10-16 July 2016, according to data from STR.In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy decreased 1.4% to 77.5%. Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 43 states in June

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were significantly higher in June in 6 states, lower in 1 state, and stable in 43 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... Show More Summary

NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in July Survey

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Remain Mixed According to the Latest NMHC Quarterly SurveyApartment markets continued to show mixed conditions in the July 2016 National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. Show More Summary

A Few Comments on June Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in June to 5.57 million SAARFor existing homes, inventory is still key. I expected some increase in inventory last year, but that didn't happened. Inventory is still very low and falling year-over-year (down 5.8% year-over-year in June). Show More Summary

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