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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13630
Posts / Week:40.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Comments on Employment Report: Party Like it's 1999!

Earlier: September Employment Report: 248,000 Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment RateThis was a solid report with 248,000 jobs added and combined upward revisions to July and August of 69,000. As always we shouldn't read too much into one month...Show More Summary

September Employment Report: 248,000 Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 248,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +212,000 to +243,000, and the change for August was revised from +142,000 to +180,000. Show More Summary

Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Q3 Mall Vacancies, ISM non-Manufacturing

Earlier I posted a preview for the September employment report. I noted that over the last four years, September payrolls have been revised up by an average of 55,000 - so it appears the BLS underestimates employment in September.But...Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate below 2% in August, Lowest since January 2009

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in August to 1.98% from 2.02% in July. Freddie's rate is down from 2.64% in August 2013, and this is the lowest level since January 2009. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for September

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for September. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 215,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September (range of estimates between 185,000 and 289,000),...Show More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 to 4.2%, First quarterly increase since 2009

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate increased in Q3 to 4.2% from 4.1% in Q2. In Q3 2013 (a year ago), the vacancy rate was at 4.3%, and the rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.Some comments from Reis Senior Economist Ryan Severino:The national vacancy rate increased by 10 basis points to 4.2% during the third quarter. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 287,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending September 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 293,000 to 295,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q3 Apartment Vacancy Rate

An interesting article on foreign buyers of U.S. real estate from Dionne Searceyoct at the NY Times: Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S.Foreign buyers now make up 7 percent of total existing-home sales... Show More Summary

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to slow further year-over-year in August

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. Note: Hopefully Zillow will...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.34 million annual rate in September

Based on an WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.34 million SAAR in September. That is up 7% from September 2013, but down 6% from the 17.4 million annual sales rate last month.This was below the consensus forecast of 16.8 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 at 16.8%

Reis released their Q3 2014 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2 at 16.8%. This is down slightly from 16.9% in Q3 2013, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From...Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 0.8% in August

Earlier the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in August:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during August 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $961.0 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised July estimate of $968.8 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index declines to 56.6 in September

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slower expansion in September than in August. The PMI was at 56.6% in September, down from 59.0% in August. The employment index was at 54.6%, down from 58.1% in August, and the new orders index was...Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 213,000 in September

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 213,000 jobs from August to September according to the August ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total...Show More Summary

Wednesday: Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment, Q3 Office Vacancies, Construction Spending

Wednesday will be busy! First, from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Registers August GainDriven by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in August. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate below 2% in August, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in August to 1.99% from 2.00% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.61% in August 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline in July

I started 2014 expecting a slowdown in year-over-year (YoY) prices as "For Sale" inventory increases, and the price slowdown is very obvious! The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index was up 6.7% YoY in July; the smallest YoY increase since...Show More Summary

A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in July

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities)...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July. The consensus is for a 7.5% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for July. Show More Summary

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