Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10344
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

New Home Sales increase to 555,000 Annual Rate in January

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 555 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.."Sales of new single-family houses in January 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 555,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Friday: New Home Sales

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg Whom to Listen to in the Fed MinutesWhen it comes to the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, not all central bank policy makers are created equally. There are “participants” -- all the policy makers in the room -- and there are “members,” those who have a vote. Show More Summary

Update on lack of Chinese Residential Real Estate Buyers

A few weeks ago I wrote Some Random Concerns and Observations.... One of my concerns was that stricter capital controls in China would negatively impact certain U.S. real estate markets. After that post, I spoke to an excellent source...Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Expanded Further" in February

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded FurtherThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000, 4-Week Average Lowest Since 1973

The DOL reported:In the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 239,000 to 238,000. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in January

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at January Mortgage Data: Impact of Rising Rates Felt as Prepayments Decline by 30 Percent in January• Prepayment speeds (historically a good indicator of refinance activity)...Show More Summary

A Few Comments on January Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jump in January"A few key points:1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus.2) The contracts for most of the January existing home sales were...Show More Summary

FOMC Minutes: "Might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon"

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 31-February 1, 2017. Excerpts: In discussing the outlook for monetary policy over the period ahead, many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index decreased in January

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Entering 2017, architecture billings slip modestlyThe Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dipped slightly into negative territory in January, after a very strong showing in December. Show More Summary

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jump in January"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Jump in JanuaryExisting-home sales stepped out to a fast start in 2017, surpassing a recent cyclical high and increasing in January to the fastest pace in almost a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Higher Ahead of Fed MinutesMortgage rates were just slightly higher today, leaving them roughly in the center of a range that's persisted since mid-November. During that time the average top-tier conventional 30yr fixed rate has been briefly as high as 4.5% and as low as 4.0%. Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer increases in February

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Steady Climb; Consumer and Business Confidence Strengthening The Chemical Activity Barometer...Show More Summary

Peak Renter

It was six years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive.The drivers were 1) veryShow More Summary

Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP

Yesterday I excerpted from a post I wrote in February 2005 (yes, 12 years ago).In that 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.First, from 2005:The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Show More Summary

Monday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Feb 19, 2017• Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"• Demographics and GDPFrom CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are up 4, and DOW futures are up 29 (fair value). Oil prices were down slightly over the last week with WTI futures at $53.69 per barrel and Brent at $56.14 per barrel. Show More Summary

Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"

Here are some excerpts from a post I wrote in February 2005 (hard to believe this was 12 years ago).Note: I think I've improved the graphs since then! From 2005:The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Show More Summary

Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 33% Year-over-year

Fannie and Freddie reported results last week. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs).Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 11,418 at the end of Q4 2106 compared to 17,004 at the end of Q4 2015.For Freddie, this is down 85% from the 74,897 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Show More Summary

Don't like the data? Change it!

From the WSJ: Trump Administration Considers Change in Calculating U.S. Trade DeficitThe Trump administration is considering changing the way it calculates U.S. trade deficits, a shift that would make the country’s trade gap appear larger than it had in past years...The leading idea under consideration would exclude from U.S. Show More Summary

Demographics and GDP

Two years ago I wrote: Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%. As I noted, "One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. If the labor force is growing quickly, GDP will be higher with the same gains in productivity. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Feb 19, 2017

The key economic report this week are January New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, Feb 20th ----- All US markets are closed in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday. ----- Tuesday, Feb 21st----- No major economic releases scheduled. Show More Summary

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