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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13992
Posts / Week:40.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Housing Market Enters 2015 Facing Affordability PressuresSome of the price declines were exacerbated by a glut of foreclosures. The subsequent rebound reflected increased investor demand for those bargain-priced...Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in November

Happy New Year! I did my part last night to help the restaurant index for December :-)Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Remains in Positive TerritoryBuoyed by positive...Show More Summary

Question #1 for 2015: How much will the economy grow in 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'm adding some thoughts, and a few predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.1) Economic growth: Heading into 2015, most analysts are pretty sanguine. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in November, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in November to 1.91% from 1.92% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.44% in November 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.8% in November, up 4.1% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Show Modest Gain in NovemberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 0.8 percent to 104.8 in November from a slightly downwardly revised 104.0 in...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 298,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending December 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 280,000 to 281,000. Show More Summary

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in November

Wednesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 286 thousand from 280 thousand.• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The...Show More Summary

Question #3 for 2015: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 5.8% in November, down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year. Show More Summary

Question #4 for 2015: Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.4) Inflation: The inflation rate is still running well below the Fed's 2% target. Show More Summary

House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October

This morning, S&P reported that the National index increased 0.7% in October seasonally adjusted. However, it appears the seasonal adjustment has been distorted by the high level of distressed sales in recent years. Trulia's Jed Kolko...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.6% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in November

According to Black Knight's First Look report for November, the percent of loans delinquent increased 12% in November compared to October, and declined 6% year-over-year.The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in November and were down 35% over the last year. Show More Summary

Question #6 for 2015: Will real wages increase in 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.6) Real Wage Growth: Last month I listed a few economic "words of the year" for the last decade. Show More Summary

Oil Prices Fall, Rig Count Drops, Oil Companies Employment to decline

A few related articles on oil...From Bloomberg: Oil Falls to 5-Year Low as Supply Glut Seen Lingering Oil fell to the lowest level in more than five years amid speculation that a global supply glut that’s driven crude into a bear market...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing "Picks up Pace" in December

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Pace Texas factory activity increased again in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up slightly in October, Up 4.5% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes; Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From the WSJ: Need a Raise in 2015? Try Changing Jobs In an economic recovery weighed down by subdued income growth for most Americans, a Kansas City Fed paper suggests those who are moving on to new jobs are better able to negotiate...Show More Summary

Question #7 for 2015: What about oil prices in 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.7) Oil Prices: Declining oil prices and falling bond yields were two of the biggest stories of 2014. Show More Summary

CNBC and the "Job Surge of 2015" and Demographics

A few comments on an article that was posted at CNBC on Saturday "2015: The year jobs surge in the US". It was really a video with a few predictions.First, I think the title was wrong. 2014 was the year jobs surged in the US.Second, those expecting 300+ thousand jobs per month in 2015 will probably be disappointed. Show More Summary

Question #8 for 2015: How much will Residential Investment increase?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.8) Residential Investment:...Show More Summary

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