Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8119
Posts / Week:21.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 5.4 million in May, Highest on Record

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of May, the highest since the series began in December 2000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Show More Summary

Trade Deficit increased in May to $41.9 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in May, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April, revised. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings

A sharp decline in oil prices, from the WSJ: Oil Prices Tumble Nearly 8% Oil prices on Monday skidded to their biggest single-day declines in more than three months, as gyrations in Chinese stocks and the prospect of more crude from the U.S. Show More Summary

Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2015

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the coming year. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2015 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it...Show More Summary

Black Knight May Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to BKFS, 4.96% of mortgages were delinquent in May, up from 4.77% in April. BKFS reported that 1.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.91% in May 2014.This gives a total of 6.45% delinquent or in foreclosure. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.0% in June

The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.0%, up from 55.7% in May. The employment index decreased in June to 52.7%, down from 55.3% in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures: Greece says No!

From Bloomberg: Tsipras Triumphs as Greece Votes Against AusteritySixty-one percent of voters backed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s rejection of further spending cuts and tax increases in an unprecedented referendum that’s also taken...Show More Summary


The Financial Times reports: Early results suggest Greece heads for No With about a third of the vote counted, "No" had 61% of the vote and was leading in every region of Greece.And from the WSJ: First Official Projection Says at Least...Show More Summary

Shanghai Cliff Diving

Note: The polls in Greece close at noon ET, and early results might be available around 2:30 PM ET.The WSJ has a running discussion: Greek Referendum — Live Paul Krugman wrote this morning: Meanwhile In ChinaI am, of course, anxiously awaiting the results of Greferendum, although the next few days in Greece will be terrible whoever wins. Show More Summary

Greece Sunday: ???????

???????: Dilemma. There is no good choice on Sunday.Poor fiscal policies led to the need for a bailout. And the poorly designed bailout program has crushed the Greek economy. Now the creditors want more of the same, expecting a different result; so voting "Yes" seems like the definition of insanity. Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the June employment report.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of July 5, 2015

It feels like a Saturday...The key report this coming week is the May Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and the June ISM non-manufacturing index on Monday.Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday on the U.S. Economic Outlook. ----- Monday, July 6th ----- 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Show More Summary

Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 281,000

A quick graph of unemployment claims... Note: Starting with this release, the DOL is including a table of unadjusted State-level "advance"claims.The DOL reported:In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 271,000. Show More Summary

Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015, RevPAR up almost 50% from 2009

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 27 JuneThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 21-27 June 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 1.1 percent to 76.9 percent. Show More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.2%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was unchanged in Q2 2015, compared to Q1, at 4.2% - and also the same as in Q2 2014. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.A few comments from Reis Senior Economist and Director...Show More Summary

June Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Earlier: June Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.3% Unemployment RateThis was a decent employment report with 223,000 jobs added, although April and May were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs.Unfortunately wage growth is still weak,...Show More Summary

June Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.3% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.... Show More Summary

Thursday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Here is the employment preview I posted earlier: Preview: Employment Report for JuneGoldman Sachs is forecasting:We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 220k in June, a bit below consensus expectations. Labor market indicators were mixed in June, suggesting a print roughly in line with the 217k monthly average seen so far in 2015. Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for June

Bold prediction: Tomorrow will feel like a Friday!On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June (with...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decreased to 17.1 million annual rate in June

Based on an AutoData estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in June. That is up 1.5% from June 2014, and down 3.5% from the 17.7 million annual sales rate last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows...Show More Summary

Copyright © 2015 Regator, LLC