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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13401
Posts / Week:41.2
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Tim Duy at Economist's View: Fed Watch: Fed Hawks SquawkHow much leeway does Fed Chair Janet Yellen have in her campaign to hold interest rates low for a considerable period after asset purchases end later this year? If you listen to Fed hawks, you would believe that she is quickly running out of room....... Show More Summary

Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors

This might be a good time to review the seasonal pattern for employment.Even in the best of years there are a significant number of jobs lost in the months of January and July. In 1994, when the economy added almost 3.9 million jobs,...Show More Summary

U.S. Births increased in 2013 after Declining for Five Consecutive Years

This provisional data for 2013 was released in May and shows a possible impact of the great recession...From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Preliminary Data for 2013. The NCHS reports:The 2013 preliminary number of U.S. Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in June to $41.5 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:[T]otal June exports of $195.9 billion and imports of $237.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $41.5 billion, down from $44.7 billion in May, revised. June exports were $0.3 billion more than May exports of $195.6 billion. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Refinance Applications, Share Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 1, 2014....The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Trade Deficit

The ISM manufacturing survey is almost always released before the BLS employment report for the same month, and frequently the ISM non-manufacturing survey also precedes the employment report. This didn't happen for July since the employment...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales down 17%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 35%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in July were down 17% year-over-year...Show More Summary

Q2 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q2 advance GDP report.Investment in single family structures is now back to being the top category for residential investment (see first graph). Home improvement was the top category for twenty one consecutive quarters following the housing bust... Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.7%

The July ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 58.7%, up from 56.0% in June. The employment index increased in July to 56.0%, up from 54.4% in June. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.5% Year-over-year in June

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports...Show More Summary

Tuesday: ISM non-Manufacturing

First a note on housing inventory and more... I think it is a positive that existing home inventory is increasing. Sometimes rising inventory is a sign of trouble (I was pointing to increasing inventory in 2005 as a sign that the bubble...Show More Summary

Weekly Update: Housing Tracker Existing Home Inventory up 13.6% YoY on Aug 4th

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory...There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.The Realtor (NAR)...Show More Summary

Fed Survey: Banks eased lending standards, "broad-based pickup in loan demand"

From the Federal Reserve: The July 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesThe July survey results showed a continued easing of lending standards and terms for many types of loan categories amid a broad-based pickup in loan demand. Show More Summary

Goldman Sachs' Hui on House Price Seasonal Adjustments

A few excerpts from some analysis by Goldman's Hui Shan: "Are investors getting too pessimistic about US housing" This month’s housing data showed weakness in both price and activity measures. On the price side, market consensus expected 0.3% month-over-month growth in the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite. Show More Summary

Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for June

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS, formerly the LPS Data & Analytics division) released their Mortgage Monitor report for June today. According to BKFS, 5.70% of mortgages were delinquent in June, up from 5.62% in May. BKFS reports...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Monday:• Early: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor report for June.Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Aug 3rd• Demographics: Prime Working-Age Population Growing AgainFrom CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are downShow More Summary

Demographics: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

Earlier this year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group and The Future is still Bright!I pointed out that "even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the July employment report.Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of August 3rd

This will be a very light week for economic data. ----- Monday, August 4th ----- Early: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor report for June. ----- Tuesday, August 5th ----- 10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for a reading of 56.5, up from 56.0 in June. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 451 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 1, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Actions by the Federal Reserve were responsible for the two changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. Show More Summary

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