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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13383
Posts / Week:41.2
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 451 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 1, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Actions by the Federal Reserve were responsible for the two changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. Show More Summary

Lawler: More Builder Results and Summary Table

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The Ryland Group reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30, 2014 totaled 2,228, up 1.7% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Sales per community last quarter were down 13.8% from a year ago. Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decline to 16.4 million annual rate in July

Based on an WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.4 million SAAR in July. That is up 5% from July 2013, and down 2.5% from the 16.9 million annual sales rate last month.This was below the consensus forecast of 16.7 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased in June

Earlier the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in June:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during June 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950.2 billion, 1.8 percent below the revised May estimate of $967.8 billion. Show More Summary

Comments on Employment Report

Earlier: July Employment Report: 209,000 Jobs, 6.2% Unemployment RateA few key points:• At the current pace (through July), the economy will add 2.75 million jobs this year (2.64 million private sector jobs). Right now 2014 is on pace...Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increased in July to 57.1

The ISM manufacturing index suggests faster expansion in July than in June. The PMI was at 57.1% in July, up from 55.3% in June. The employment index was at 58.2%, up from 52.8% in June, and the new orders index was at 63.4%, up from...Show More Summary

Final July Consumer Sentiment at 81.8

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was at 81.8, down from 82.5 in June, and up from the preliminary July reading of 81.3.This was close to the consensus forecast of 81.5. Show More Summary

July Employment Report: 209,000 Jobs, 6.2% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +224,000 to +229,000, and the change for June was revised from +288,000 to +298,000. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Autos, ISM Manufacturing and More

From Goldman Sachs economist Sven Jari Stehn: July Payroll Preview We expect a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a one tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 6.0%. As far as payrolls are concerned, our forecast would be a solid gain but at a pace slightly below that seen over the past few months. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in June, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in June to 2.05% from 2.08% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.77% in June 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. The...Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for July

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 233,000 non-farm payroll jobs in July (range of estimates between 200,000 and 280,000), and for the...Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index declined in June

From the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Declined in June Amid Softer Customer TrafficDue in large part to softer customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a moderate decline in June. Show More Summary

Chicago PMI declines to 52.6

From the Chicago ISM: Chicago Business Barometer Down 10.0 points to 52.6 in July The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 10.0 points to 52.6 in July, significantly down from May’s seven month high of 65.5, led by a collapse in Production...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 302,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since April 2006

The DOL reports:In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 302,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 284,000 to 279,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI

From Tim Duy on the FOMC Statement at Economist's View At the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, policymakers released yet another statement that only a FedWatcher could love. It is definitely an exercise in reading between the lines. Show More Summary

Q2 GDP: Investment Contributions

Private investment rebounded in Q2. Residential investment increased at a 7.5% annual rate in Q2, equipment investment increased at a 7.0% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures increased at a 5.3% annual rate. The...Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: More Tapering

Another $10 billion reduction in asset purchases. Two key statement changes: "a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources" and "Inflation has moved somewhat closer to...Show More Summary

GDP: A Few Graphs

A few graphs based on the GDP report (including revisions).The first graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment (RI) and state and local governments since 2005. This shows the huge slump in RI during...Show More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.0% Annualized Rate in Q2

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate) Annual Revision: 1999 through First Quarter 2014 Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the...Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 218,000 in July

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 218,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

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