Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:14253
Posts / Week:40.2
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

ADP: Private Employment increased 212,000 in February

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 212,000 jobs from January to February according to the February ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change inShow More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Little Changed in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Little Changed in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 27, 2015....The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM non-Manufacturing, Beige Book

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.2 million annual rate in February

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.16 million SAAR in February. That is up 5.4% from February 2014, and down 2.4% from the 16.55 million annual sales rate last month. The comparison to February 2014 was easy (sales were impacted by the severe weather last year).From John Sousanis at Wards Auto: February 2015 U.S. Show More Summary

The Long and Short Views

CR Note: The following is a post I wrote in January 2007 that is hopefully worth repeating. I warned about always being short term bearish, even though most of my posts were very bearish back then! I was predicting a recession wouldShow More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.7% Year-over-year in January

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: Home Prices Up 5 Percent Year Over Year for December 2014CoreLogic®... Show More Summary

Tuesday: February Auto Sales

On mortgage rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back up to 3.875 PercentWhat had been 3.75% on Friday is now 3.875% in terms of the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed rates for top tier scenarios.CR Note: The Ten Year yield increased to 2.08% today from 2.00% on Friday. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in January, Lowest since September 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in January to 1.86% from 1.89% in December. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.33% in January 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008. Show More Summary

Zillow: January Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to be about the same as in December

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for December were released last Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Zillow: 10- & 20-City Case-Shiller Composites Expected to Show Declines In Jan. Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 1.1% in January

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in January:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during January 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $971.4 billion, 1.1 percent below the revised December estimate of $982.0 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index declined to 53.5 in February

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slower expansion in February than in January. The PMI was at 52.9% in February, down from 53.5% in January. The employment index was at 51.4%, down from 54.1% in January, and the new orders indexShow More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.3% in January, Spending decreased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January: Personal income increased $50.8 billion, or 0.3 percent... in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased...Show More Summary

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

An excellent piece about the Fed from Tim Duy: Game OnBottom Line: The Fed's confidence in the US economy is driving them closer to policy normalization. The labor market improvements are key - as long as unemployment is falling, confidence in the inflation outlook is rising. Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index shows solid Expansion in January

Note: In a related story, the WSJ reported yesterday Wages Rise at Restaurants as Labor Market TightensRestaurant wages zoomed up to an annualized pace of more than 3% in the second half of last year from below a 1.5% pace in the first half of 2013, according to the Labor Department.... Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of March 1, 2015

The key report this week is the February employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the January Personal Income and Outlays report on Monday, February ISM manufacturing index also on Monday, February vehicle sales on Tuesday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the January Trade Deficit on Friday. Show More Summary

February 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 357 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for February, 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Very busy week for the Unofficial Problem Bank List as the FDIC closed a bank and provided an update on its enforcement actions through January 2015. Show More Summary

Bank Failure #4 in 2015: Doral Bank, San Juan, Puerto Rico

From the FDIC: Banco Popular De Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico, Assumes all of the Deposits of Doral Bank, San Juan, Puerto RicoAs of December 31, 2014, Doral Bank had approximately $5.9 billion in total assets and $4.1 billion in total deposits.... Show More Summary

Lawler on Pending Home Sales: NAR “Fixes’ Bad Data for West Region

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The National Association of Realtors reported that its Pending Home Sales Index, designed to gauge contract-signing activity on MLS-based existing home sales, increased by 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December to 104.2 in January. Show More Summary

Fed's Fischer: "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet"

A review of policy normalization by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet (excerpt)Turning to policy normalization, the FOMC and market participants anticipate that the federal funds rate will be raised sometime this year. Show More Summary

Catching Up: Final February Consumer Sentiment at 95.4, Chicago PMI declines Sharply

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February was at 95.4, up from the preliminary reading of 93.6, and down from 98.1 in January.This was above the consensus forecast of 94.0. Show More Summary

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