Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9381
Posts / Week:22.3
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Gasoline Prices: Down 40 cents per gallon from last year on Memorial Day

According to, gasoline prices are down to a national average of $2.33 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $2.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $3.75 per gallon.This...Show More Summary

The War on Data

People have different priorities and different values. But we share the same data. Over the last few days, we've heard a presidential contender make comments completing ignoring the data. This should concern everyone - ignoring dataShow More Summary

May 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 205 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 2016. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for May 2016. During the month, the list fell from 214 institutions to 205 after 12 removals and three additions. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of May 29, 2016

The key report this week is the May employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include May vehicle sales, the May ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the April trade deficit. ----- Monday, May 30th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in April

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate decreased in April to 1.15% from 1.20% in March. Freddie's rate is down from 1.66% in April 2015. This is the lowest rate since August 2008.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Lawler: Sustained Regional Home Price Declines Were Not That Uncommon from the Mid-80’s to the Mid-90’s

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Sustained Regional Home Price Declines Were Not That Uncommon from the Mid-80’s to the Mid-90’sDuring any 5-year period that including any part the late 70’s there were virtually no areas that experienced a drop in home prices. Show More Summary

Consumer Sentiment at 94.7

Click on graph for larger image. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May was at 94.7, down from the preliminary reading of 95.8, and up from 89.0 in April: "Consumers were a bit less optimistic in late May than earlier in the month, but sentiment was still substantially higher than last month. Show More Summary

Q1 GDP Revised Up to 0.8% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Second Estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production,...Show More Summary

Friday: GDP, Yellen

A few excerpts from a research piece by Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch: Fed Watch: June, July or September? It is now clear that June is very much on the table. What is less clear is whether the Fed is just protesting the super-low probability priced into the markets or is setting us up for a June hike. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR in May

The automakers will report May vehicle sales on Wednesday, June 1st.Note: There were 24 selling days in May, down from 26 in May 2015.From WardsAuto: May Forecast Calls for Improved Sales, Days’ Supply WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "declined modestly" in May

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined ModestlyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.1% in April, up 4.6% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Lift Off in April to Over 10-Year HighPending home sales rose for the third consecutive month in April and reached their highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 268,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 268,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 278,000. The 4-week moving average was 278,500, an increase...Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, down from 278 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in April

From the Philly Fed: he Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 64. Show More Summary

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in April

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in April.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. Show More Summary

FHFA: House Prices increased 0.7% in March, New Zip Code HPI Data

From the FHFA: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.3 Percent in First Quarter; 19 Consecutive Quarterly IncreasesU.S. house prices rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2016 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). Show More Summary

MBA: "Purchase Applications Increase and Refis Hold Steady in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Purchase Applications Increase and Refis Hold Steady in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage...Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer increased in May

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, he Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. Show More Summary

New Home Prices

As part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2016 was $321,100; the average sales price was $379,800."The following graph shows the median and average new home prices. Show More Summary

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