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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13528
Posts / Week:41
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Duy on Fed's "considerable time" phrase

From Tim Duy at Economist's View: Forward Guidance Heading for a ChangeThe lackluster August employment report clearly defied expectations (including my own) for a strong number to round out the generally positive pattern of recent data. Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the August employment report.Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change. Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales down 9%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 22%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in August were down 8.8% year-over-year and at the lowest for August since 2008. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From Ben Leubsdorf at the WSJ: Services-Spending Report Gains Wider AttentionA quarterly reading from the Commerce Department has quietly emerged as one of the most consequential government reports, with the power to roil estimates for U.S. Show More Summary

Research: Much of Recent Decline in Labor Force Participation Rate due to "ongoing structural influences"

For several years, I've been arguing that "most of the recent decline in the participation rate" was due to demographics and other long term structural trends (like more education). This is an important issue because if most of the decline...Show More Summary

Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

This is an update to a previous post through August.Earlier this year, I posted some demographic data for the U.S., see: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group and The Future is still Bright!I...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of September 7th

The key report this week is August retail sales on Friday. ----- Monday, September 8th ----- 3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for July from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $17.4 billion. ----- Tuesday, September 9th ----- 7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 437 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Sept 5, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The Federal Reserve terminating two actions were the only changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. Show More Summary

Lawler: Latest Release Shows Sizable Revisions in S&P/Case-Shiller “National” Home Price Index

From housing economist Tom Lawler:This week’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Report for June 2014 contained two data “surprises.” The first was that the SPCS “National” HPI, previously released only quarterly, will now be published on a monthly basis. Show More Summary

Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month

One of the dumbest comments I saw this morning was from Douglas Holtz-Eakin who wrote "Disaster in August jobs!"Really? Was this a "disaster"? I'm sure Holtz-Easkin wrote "disaster" in 1983 when payroll employment only increased 128 thousand in one month (on the way to almost 3.9 million for the year). Show More Summary

Comments on Employment Report

Earlier: August Employment Report: 142,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment RateAlthough the headline number and revisions were disappointing, this is just one month of data and historically the employment report is "noisy". There were some positives...Show More Summary

August Employment Report: 142,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from +298,000 to +267,000, and the change for July was revised from +209,000 to +212,000. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Friday:• At 8:30 AM, the Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, up from the 209,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.1% in August. Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for August

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for August. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August (range of estimates between 195,000 and 279,000), and for...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in July to $40.5 Billion

Earlier the Department of Commerce reported:[T]otal July exports of $198.0 billion and imports of $238.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.5 billion, down from $40.8 billion in June, revised. July exports were $1.8 billion more than June exports of $196.2 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.6% in August

The August ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 59.6%, up from 58.7% in July. The employment index increased in August to 57.1%, up from 56.0% in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 302,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending August 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 302,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 298,000. The 4-week moving average was 302,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 299,750. Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 204,000 in August

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

Thursday: ECB's Draghi, ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Non-Manufacturing

From the WSJ: Small Firms Poised to Spend More on Plants, EquipmentAmong 798 small private firms with less than $20 million in revenue, for instance, 51% said in August that they planned to increase their capital outlays in the next 12 months.That is... Show More Summary

Lawler on Toll Brothers: Net Home Orders Down, Price Gains Slow; Some “Lessening” in Pricing Power

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Toll Brothers: Net Home Orders Down, Price Gains on Orders Slows; Some “Lessening” in Pricing Power but No “Need” to Increase Incentives Much -- YetToll Brothers, the self-described “nation’s leading...Show More Summary

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