Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8890
Posts / Week:22.2
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices "Continued Climb" in November, up 12% year-over-year

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: CRE Prices Continued Upward Climb in November STRONG FUNDAMENTALS AND CAPITAL FLOWS SUPPORTED BROAD CRE PRICE GROWTH IN NOVEMBER. U.S. commercial real estate...Show More Summary

Preliminary January Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.3

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 93.3, up from 92.6 in December: "Consumer confidence inched upward for the fourth consecutive month due to more positive expectations for future economic growth. Show More Summary

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.4% in December

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December, primarily as a result of cutbacks for utilities and mining. The decrease for total industrial production in November...Show More Summary

Retail Sales decreased 0.1% in December

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.1% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.2% from December 2014.From the Census Bureau report:The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic Decreased YoY in December

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December will be released. The consensusShow More Summary

Mortgage News Daily: "Lenders quoting 30yr fixed rates in a range of 3.875% to 4.0%"

Mortgage rates are nears the lows of the last two months...From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Lower as Markets Grow Anxious Ahead of FedYesterday was best described as 'unchanged,' and today's rate sheets were almost imperceptibly weaker. Show More Summary

NMHC: "Apartment Markets Recede in the January NMHC Quarterly Survey"

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Recede in the January NMHC Quarterly SurveyAll four indexes in the January 2015 National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions fell below the breakeven level of 50, indicating a decline over the past quarter. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 284,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 284,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. The 4-week moving average was 278,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 275,750. Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in December: Sales up 19.6%, Inventory down 28% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For a few years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales. Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded"

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and based on information collected on or before January 4, 2016."Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded in nine of the Districts since the previous Beige Book report and contacts in Boston were described as upbeat. Show More Summary

Is Oil "Cheap"?

One year ago today, I wrote Is Oil "Cheap"? Some people were arguing oil was "cheap" with Brent futures at $46 per barrel.I pointed out that oil prices had still increased more than other key items since 1990 and 2000.Below is an update...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 19% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 21.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 8, 2016. Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 8%

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks ofShow More Summary

An update on oil prices

From the WSJ: U.S. Oil Prices Sink Below $30 a Barrel, First Time Since ’03Oil tumbled below $30 a barrel on Tuesday, underscoring the global economy’s difficulty with absorbing a relentless flood of crude supplies....The benchmark U.S. Show More Summary

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2015 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April 2009 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Show More Summary

BLS: Jobs Openings increased in November

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively. Show More Summary

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in December

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): NFIB Survey Remains Flat, With Small Business Owners Divided on Sales Outlook, Business ConditionsThe overall Index gained a modest 0.4 points in December. It now stands at...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Job Openings

Tuesday:• At 5:30 AM ET, Panel Discussion with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound, At the Banque de France and Bank for International Settlements Farewell Symposium for Christian...Show More Summary

Question #1 for 2016: How much will the economy grow in 2016?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2016. I'm adding some thoughts, and a few predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2015.1) Economic growth: Heading into 2016, most analysts are once again pretty sanguine. Show More Summary

Black Knight November Mortgage Monitor: First Time Foreclosure Starts Lowest on Record

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for November today. According to BKFS, 4.92% of mortgages were delinquent in November, up from 4.77% in October. BKFS reported that 1.38% of mortgages were...Show More Summary

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