Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9820
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

ATA Trucking Index increased Sharply in August

This was released last week by the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Jumped 5.7% in AugustAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 5.7% in August, following a 2.1% decline during July. Show More Summary

Lawler: Renter Share of Single-Family Market Declined Slightly in 2015

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Data from the 2015 American Community Survey suggest thatFor the first time since 2006, the number of single-family housing units occupied by renters declined slightly last year. The share of occupied...Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer indicated "Solid Growth in September"

Here is an indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Solid Growth in SeptemberThe Chemical Activity Barometer...Show More Summary

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in JulyThe year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In July, the index was up 5.1% YoY.In...Show More Summary

Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Still Soft" in September

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Still Soft in September; Employment Index at 36-Month LowManufacturing activity in the Fifth District continued to soften in September, but somewhat less so than in August, according...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in July

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Monday Night from 9:00 to 10:30 PM: the First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University in New York.From Politifact Live fact-checking the first Trump, Clinton presidential debateFrom the NY Times: How The New York Times Will Fact-Check the DebateTuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Show More Summary

A few Comments on August New Home Sales

The new home sales report for August was strong at 609,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest for the month of August since 2007 - and the second highest sales rate since January 2008 (only last month was higher). Show More Summary

New Home Sales decreased to 609,000 Annual Rate in August

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 609 thousand. The previous three months were revised down by a total of 4 thousand (SAAR)."Sales of new single-family houses in August...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.4% in July, Up 5.3% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Monday: New Home Sales, Presidential Debate

I mentioned this on twitter earlier today:I spoke to a local infill spec builder yesterday who has been asking me for advice for several years (and happy with my advice!). The builder brought up the election... The spec builder told me he was thinking of voting for Trump because his tax rate would be lower. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Rebound in September

The automakers will report September vehicle sales on Monday, October 3rd.Note: There were 25 selling days in September, the same as in September 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. SAAR to Rebound in September The forecast 17.6 million SAAR is greater than 16.9 million from prior-month and the 17.2 million over the first eight months of the year. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Sept 25, 2016

The key economic report this week is August New Home Sales. Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August, and the Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.Also the third estimate of Q2 GDP will be released.For manufacturing,...Show More Summary

FDIC Closes Bank in Arkansas; Fifth Failed Bank of 2016

From the FDIC: Today's Bank, Huntsville, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Allied Bank Mulberry, ArkansasAllied Bank, Mulberry, Arkansas, was closed today by the Arkansas State Banking Department, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in August

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in nine, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 60. Show More Summary

Unemployment and Wages: "A Dirty Little Secret"

I'm reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is "dirty" in the sense that it is unspoken. Show More Summary

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in August

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in August.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures...Show More Summary

Lawler on August Existing Home Sales

From housing economist Tom Lawler:In a report released this morning, the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million, down 0.9% from July’s downwardly revised (to 5.38 million from 5.39 million) pace and up 0.8% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Show More Summary

FHFA: House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in July

Earlier from the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in July 2016U.S. house prices rose in July, up 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Rebounded Moderately" in September

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Rebounded ModeratelyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economistShow More Summary

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