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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13757
Posts / Week:40.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Wednesday: ISM Non-Mfg Index, ADP Employment

From the WSJ: What Falling Exports Mean for U.S. Economic Growth In response to Tuesday’s trade report (in addition to weak construction and factory orders data), economists are reducing the estimates for third-quarter real GDP growth. Show More Summary

Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year

Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs.The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housing starts) and supply constraints (framing lumber suppliers were working to bring more capacity online). Show More Summary

Lawler on NAR 2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The National Association of Realtors released the results of its 2014 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, which are based on a survey of buyers who purchased a home between July 2013 and June 2014. The...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.6% Year-over-year in September

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit increased in September to $43.0 Billion

Earlier the Department of Commerce reported:[T]otal September exports of $195.6 billion and imports of $238.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $43.0 billion, up from $40.0 billion in August, revised. September exports were $3.0 billion less than August exports of $198.6 billion. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Trade Deficit

Two weeks ago, Professor James Hamilton wrote: How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices? (read entire piece!). Hamilton wrote:it’s primarily a question of responding to surging output of U.S. tight oil. My guess is that Saudi Arabia would lower prices rather than cut production...And today from the WSJ: Oil Skids as Saudis Adjust PricesU.S. Show More Summary

Fed Survey: Banks "eased standards for construction and land development loans"

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesRegarding loans to businesses, the October survey results indicated that only a modest net fraction of banks eased their standards...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales unchaned at 16.35 million annual rate in October

Based on an WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.35 million SAAR in October. That is up 7% from October 2013, and unchanged from the 16.34 million annual sales rate last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph...Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 0.4% in September

Earlier the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in September:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during September 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950.9 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised August estimate of $955.2 billion.. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in October

The ISM manufacturing index suggests faster expansion in October than in September. The PMI was at 59.0% in October, up from 56.6% in September. The employment index was at 55.5%, up from 54.6% in September, and the new orders indexShow More Summary

Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for September

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to BKFS, 5.67% of mortgages were delinquent in September, down from 5.90% in August. BKFS reported that 1.76% of mortgages were...Show More Summary

Monday: ISM Mfg, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

From the SacBee: Sacramento gas prices under $3 per gallon are part of nationwide trendAAA reported that the average gas price nationally dropped by 33 cents in October, reaching $2.99 on Saturday. That was the first time in four years...Show More Summary

Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales

Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales.At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales.First, here is the NRF forecast for...Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported yesterday that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in September to 1.96% from 1.99% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.55% in September 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of November 2nd

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the October ISM manufacturing index and October vehicle sales, both on Monday, the September Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and September ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 422 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 31, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: As expected, the FDIC provided an update on its enforcement action activities. Show More Summary

Friday Night: Kudlow makes me laugh ... again!

Larry Kudlow wrote an absurd piece at CNBC today.Of course Kudlow is usually wrong and frequently absurd... as an example, in June 2005 Kudlow wrote "The Housing Bears are Wrong Again" and called me (or people like me) "bubbleheads".Homebuilders led the stock parade this week with a fantastic 11 percent gain. Show More Summary

Q3 GDP: Investment Contributions

This is one of my favorite GDP graphs. The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because...Show More Summary

Q3 2014 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report today.Investment in single family structures is now back to being the top category for residential investment (see first graph). Home improvement was the top category for twenty one consecutive quarters following the housing bust... Show More Summary

Preliminary: 2015 Housing Forecasts

The NAHB released their 2015 housing forecast today. Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. Show More Summary

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