Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10471
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since March 2008

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.19% in February, from 1.20% in January. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.52% in February 2016.This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since March 2008.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Show More Summary

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q1 to 4.3%

Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.3% in Q1 2017, up from 4.2% in Q4, and unchanged from 4.3% in Q1 2016. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.From Reis: Effective Apartment Rents Decline in 23 of 79 Metros Across the U.S. Show More Summary

Chicago PMI increases in March

Chicago PMI: March Chicago Business Barometer at 57.7 vs 57.4 in February The MNI Chicago Business Barometer was broadly stable at 57.7 in March, following a hefty rise of 7.1 points in February to 57.4.Following a strong February, firms...Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.4% in February, Spending increased 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $57.7 billion (0.4 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $7.4 billion (0.1 percent)....Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent. Show More Summary

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI

Friday:• At 8:30 Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.• Also at 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. Show More Summary

Census: "One-third of the adult population in the United States has a bachelor’s degree or higher"

From the Census Bureau: More than one-third of the adult population in the United States has a bachelor’s degree or higherMore than one-third of the adult population in the United States has a bachelor’s degree or higher marking theShow More Summary

Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate Solid in March

After some weakness early in the year, hotel occupancy has picked up in recent weeks and is now close to the record year (2015 was the record).From STR: US hotel results for week ending 25 March U.S. hotels saw year-over-year performance increases for the week of 19-25 March. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 258,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending March 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 254,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 246,500. Show More Summary

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady, Depending on LenderCompared to yesterday, today's mortgage rates are a moving target depending on the lender. Some are better. Some are worse. On average, rates are unchanged from yesterday's latest rate sheets. Show More Summary

Zillow Forecast: "Case-Shiller national index is forecast to grow 6 percent year-over-year" in February

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Zillow: February Case-Shiller Forecast:...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 5.5% in February, up 2.6% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Leap 5.5% in FebruaryThe Pending Home Sales Index,, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, jumped 5.5 percent to 112.3 in February from 106.4 in January. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Slightly Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 24, 2017.... Show More Summary

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in January

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.9% year-over-year in JanuaryIt has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 1.9% above the previous bubble peak. Show More Summary

Richmond Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded in March

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Firms Upbeat in March with Shipments, New Orders, and Employment Indexes RisingManufacturers in the Fifth District were generally upbeat in March, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.9% year-over-year in January

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3 month average of November, December and January prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Here is the Zillow forecast (They've been very close each month): The January Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 6 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent from December, up from 5.8 percent annual growth recorded in November but down somewhat from 0.7 percent monthly growth in December. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declines in February, Lowest since June 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was at 0.98%, down from 0.99% in January. Freddie's rate is down from 1.26% in February 2016.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Activity Strengthens" in March

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity StrengthensTexas factory activity increased for the ninth consecutive month in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in January, Up 5.4% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Mar 26, 2017Monday:• 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are down 13 and DOW futures are down 90 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $47.93 per barrel and Brent at $50.80 per barrel. Show More Summary

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