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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13735
Posts / Week:40.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Preliminary: 2015 Housing Forecasts

The NAHB released their 2015 housing forecast today. Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. Show More Summary

Final October Consumer Sentiment at 86.9, Chicago PMI increases to 66.2

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 86.9, up from the preliminary reading of 86.4, and up from 84.6 in September.This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 86.4. Show More Summary

BEA: Personal Income increased 0.2% in September, Core PCE prices up 1.5% year-over-year

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent... in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased...Show More Summary

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

From Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Rebound, Remain Below Four Percent Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher across the board this weekShow More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy up 5.4%, RevPAR up 10.8% Year-over-Year

From STR: US results for week ending 25 OctoberThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 19-25 October 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 5.4 percent to 69.4 percent. Show More Summary

Lawler: MDC Results and Homebuilder Summary Table

From housing economist Tom Lawler: M.D.C. Holdings: Net Orders Up, Orders per Community Down; Margins Fall on Higher IncentivesM.D.C. Holdings reported that net home orders in the quarter ended September 30, 2014 totaled 1,081, up 17.0% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 287,000, 4-Week Average lowest since May 2000

Earlier the DOL reported:In the week ending October 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 283,000 to 284,000. Show More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate...Show More Summary

Thursday: Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims

From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 2.7 percent on October 28From Chico Harlan at the WaPo: Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will give a better read on the U.S. Show More Summary

Lawler on Housing Vacancy Survey for Q3: Reported Household Growth Remained Muted; “True” Homeownership Rate Probably Lowest Since the 1960’s

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Yesterday the Census Bureau released the “Residential Vacancies and Homeownership” Report (commonly referred to as the Housing Vacancy Survey, or HVS) for the third quarter of 2014. The HVS is basedShow More Summary

FOMC Statement: QE3 Ends, "Considerable Time" before rate increase

QE3 ends. Considerable time until first rate hike. Labor market upgraded from "significant underutilization" to "underutilization". FOMC Statement:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in September, Lowest since 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in September to 1.96% from 1.98% in August. Freddie's rate is down from 2.58% in September 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in September

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. Note: Hopefully Zillow will...Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

From Tim Duy: FOMC Meeting Regarding the statement, here is what I anticipate:1. The general description of the economy will remain essentially unchanged, expanding at a "moderate pace."...2. That said, they will mention they remain watchful of foreign growth.3. Show More Summary

NMHC Survey: Apartment Market Conditions Slightly Tighter in Q3 2014

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Expand Further in October NMHC Quarterly SurveyFor the third quarter in a row, apartment markets expanded across all four areas of the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. Show More Summary

House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August

I started 2014 expecting a slowdown in year-over-year (YoY) house prices as "For Sale" inventory increases - and the price slowdown is very clear. The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index was up 5.6% YoY in August; the smallest YoY increase...Show More Summary

HVS: Q3 2014 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2014. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However,...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.1% year-over-year in August

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities)...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, and much more

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Gas at $3 Carries Rewards—and RisksGasoline prices have dropped below $3 a gallon at most U.S. gas stations, delivering a welcome lift to American consumers and retailers heading into the holidays. ButShow More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in October

The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Monday, Nov 3rd. Sales in September were at 16.34 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in October will be solidly above 16 million SAAR again.Note:...Show More Summary

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