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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13610
Posts / Week:40.9
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Strengthens" in September

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Strengthens Texas factory activity increased again in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.0% in August, down 2.2% year-over-year

NOTE: We've had a power outage in my neighborhood. I'll be catching up on some earlier releases.From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fall Slightly in AugustThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 1.0 percent to 104.7 in August from 105.8 in July, and is now 2.2 percent below August 2013 (107.1). Show More Summary

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales

From CNBC: Bill Clinton: I know why US incomes are stagnant"Median income hasn't gone up for three reasons," Clinton said. "One is the labor markets aren't tight enough, and we haven't raised the minimum wage as we should. And the second...Show More Summary

Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2014

At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2014. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2014 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and then try to understand why I was wrong).By request, here is a Q3 review. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of September 28th

This will be a busy week for economic data. The key report is the September employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the August Personal Income and Outlays report on Monday, the July Case-Shiller House Price Index on Tuesday,...Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 432 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Sept 26, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The FDIC provided us with an update on its enforcement action activities through August. Show More Summary

Trivial: Bill Gross and Yoga in 2007

Several years ago, I occasionally attended the same yoga class as former PIMCO CIO Bill Gross. In June 2007 (a few months before the recession started), I was waiting for a yoga class and happened to be standing right next to Mr. Gross.Some...Show More Summary

Merrill and Nomura Forecasts for September Non-Farm Payrolls

The September employment report will be released next Friday, October 3rd, and the consensus is that 200 thousand payroll jobs were added in September and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%.Here are two forecasts:From Merrill...Show More Summary

Final September Consumer Sentiment at 84.6

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September was at 84.6, unchanged from the preliminary reading of 84.6, and up from 82.5 in August.This was at the consensus forecast of 84.6. Show More Summary

Q2 GDP Revised Up to 4.6% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2014 (Third Estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.6...Show More Summary

Friday: Revised Q2 GDP, Consumer Sentiment

From Merrill Lynch:We look for 2Q GDP growth to be revised up yet again, likely by another 0.6pp bringing GDP growth to 4.8% qoq saar. Revisions to construction data suggest greater investment in nonresidential structures and slightly more residential construction. Show More Summary

Lawler on ACS: Sharp Slowdown in Household Growth in 2013 Mainly Attributable to Fewer Folks Living Alone, Big Increases in “Doubling (and more) Up

From housing economist Tom Lawler:ACS: Sharp Slowdown in Household Growth in 2013 Mainly Attributable to Fewer Folks Living Alone, Big Increases in “Doubling (and more) Up”As I noted last week, ACS for 2013 suggested that there was a...Show More Summary

AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Exhibits Continued Strength" in August

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Exhibits Continued StrengthOn the heels of recording its strongest pace of growth since 2007, there...Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in September

The automakers will report September vehicle sales on Wednesday, Oct 1st. Sales in August were at 17.45 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in September will be solidly above 16 million SAAR...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: "Nearly 950,000 homes returned to positive equity in the second quarter of 2014"

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 946,000 Residential Properties Regained $1 Trillion in Total Equity in Q2 2014CoreLogic... today released new analysis showing nearly 950,000 homes returned to positive equity in the second quarter of 2014, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity in the U.S. Show More Summary

New Home Sales increase to 504,000 Annual Rate in August, Highest Sales Rate since May 2008

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 504 thousand. July sales were revised up from 412 thousand to 427 thousand, and June sales were revised down from 422 thousand toShow More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing "Activity Edged Higher" in September

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Edged Higher The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 293,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending September 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 293,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 280,000 to 281,000. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in August

According to Black Knight's First Look report for August, the percent of loans delinquent increased in August compared to July - mostly due to an increase in short term delinquencies - and declined by 5% year-over-year.Note: Usually delinquencies increase seasonally in September, but this might have moved to August this year. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods

On August Durable Goods from MarketWatch: What goes up must come down: Durable-goods orders set to sinkAfter flying high in July, orders for U.S. durable goods are likely to take a big dive in August.But don’t pay any heed. The record 22.6% surge in orders in July was propelled mainly by a pile of new contracts for Boeing jets. Show More Summary

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