Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10850
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Goldman: FOMC Preview

The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and no change to policy is expected.Here are a few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: FOMC Preview We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement. Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 10 states in June, Two States at New Series Lows

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in June in 10 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at...Show More Summary

NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in July Survey

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Decline Slightly in the July NMHC Quarterly SurveyAll four indexes of the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC) July Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market...Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies mostly unchanged in June

From Black Knight: Black Knight’ First Look at June 2017 Mortgage Data: Delinquencies Hold Steady Despite Seasonal Pressure; Low Interest Rates Help Prepayments Continue to Climb• Despite upward seasonal pressure, mortgage delinquencies...Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "Region continues to grow but at a slower pace" in July

Earlier from the Philly Fed: July 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continues to grow but at a slower pace, according to results from the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 233,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 3-Week LowsAlthough today's rates aren't appreciably lower than yesterday's, they're technically the best we've seen since June 28th. More lenders are quoting top tier conventional...Show More Summary

Comments on June Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in JuneThe housing starts report released this morning showed starts were up 8.3% in June compared to May, and were up 2.1% year-over-year compared to June 2016. This was...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in June

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firms end second quarter on a strong noteFor the fifth consecutive month, architecture firms recorded increasing demand for design services as reflected in the June Architecture Billings Index (ABI). Show More Summary

Housing Starts increased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in June

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 8.3 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,122,000 and is 2.1 percent above the June 2016 rate of 1,190,000. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 14, 2017. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Housing Starts

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.170 million SAAR, up from the May rate of 1.092 million.• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Housing and Policy

The NAHB Builder confidence survey declined this morning (although still solid), and the NAHB blamed the rising prices, especially for lumber. As Diana Olick noted on CNBC: Builder confidence jumped 6 points from November to December...Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 64 in July

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 64 in July, down from 66 in June. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Homebuilder Survey

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Higher Despite Friendly Market MovementMortgage rates are largely dictated by movements in bond markets--specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS). When bonds improve, prices rise and investors are willing to pay more to buy loans. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic increased in June

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs...Show More Summary

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales increased following Oil Price Related Slump

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2017 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Show More Summary

NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "grew modestly" in July

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyBusiness activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell ten points to 9.8. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 16, 2017Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 19.8.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures:...Show More Summary

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