Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:7911
Posts / Week:21.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in March

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports National Homes Prices Rose by 5.6 Percent Year Over Year in February 2015CoreLogic®... Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.8% in April

The April ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.8%, up from 56.5% in March. The employment index increased in April to 56.7%, up slightly from 56.6% in March. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit increased in March to $51.4 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $51.4 billion in March, up $15.5 billion from $35.9 billion in February, revised. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Trade Deficit, ISM non-Manufacturing Index

Note: West Coast port traffic increased sharply in March following the resolution of the labor issue in February. The workers were catching up with all the ships anchored in the harbor (now gone). This graph is monthly for inbound and...Show More Summary

Fed Survey: Banks ease Standards for Residential Mortgages, CRE Loans

From the Federal Reserve: The April 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesRegarding loans to businesses, the April survey results indicated that, on balance, banks reported little change in their standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans in the first quarter of 2015. Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence improves Year-over-year for the 55+ Housing Market in Q1

This is a quarterly index that was released last week by the the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). This index is similar to the overall housing market index (HMI). The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing...Show More Summary

Black Knight March Mortgage Monitor: "Negative Equity Population Shrinks to Just Over 4 Million"

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today. According to BKFS, 4.70% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 5.36% in February. BKFS reported that 1.55% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.13% in March 2014.This gives a total of 6.25% delinquent or in foreclosure. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Looking for wages... from Greg Ip at the WSJ: In Labor vs. Capital, Workers Gain a Slight EdgeHopefully there will be some small sign of a pickup in wages in the April employment report (to be released Friday).Monday:• Early, the Black Knight March Mortgage Monitor report. Show More Summary

Hotels at Record Occupancy Pace in 2015

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 25 April The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 19-25 April 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 4.3 percent to 69.8 percent. Show More Summary

Lawler on Housing Vacancy Survey: More “Stunning” Results, But Tough to Interpret

A technical note from housing economist Tom Lawler:Earlier this week the Census Bureau released its “Residential Vacancies and Homeownership” Report (commonly referred to as the Housing Vacancy Survey, or HVS) for the first quarter of...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of May 3, 2015

The key report this week is the April employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the March Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and the April ISM non-manufacturing index also on Tuesday. ----- Monday, May 4th ----- Early: the LPS March Mortgage Monitor report. Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in March

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Remained Positive in March As a result of higher same-store sales and a continued optimistic outlook for future business conditions,...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales declined to 16.5 million annual rate in April

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.5 million SAAR in April. That is up 3.3% from April 2014, and down 3.2% from the 17.05 million annual sales rate last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graphShow More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 0.6% in March

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in March:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during March 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $966.6 billion, 0.6 percent below the revised February estimate of $972.9 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index unchanged at 51.5 in April

The ISM manufacturing index suggested sluggish expansion in April. The PMI was at 51.5% in April, unchanged from 51.5% in March. The employment index was at 48.3%, down from 50.0% in March, and the new orders index was at 53.5%, up from...Show More Summary

Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.2% year-over-year change in March

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From...Show More Summary

Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in March to 1.78% from 1.83% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.19% in March 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008. Show More Summary

Q1 2015 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA released the underlying details for the Q1 advance GDP report today.Yesterday, the BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 23.1% annual rate in Q1.All of the decline could be attributed to less petroleum exploration and less investment in electrical. Show More Summary

Lawler: More Builder Results (updated table)

Housing economist Tom Lawler sent me this updated table of builder results for Q1.For these seven builders, net orders were up 19.9% year-over-year. Although cancellations are handled differently, this is about the same year-over-year...Show More Summary

Earlier from the BEA: Personal Income increased slightly in March, Core PCE prices up 1.3% year-over-year

Earlier the BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $6.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent... in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expendituresShow More Summary

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