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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13521
Posts / Week:41
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Wednesday: Auto Sales, Fed's Beige Book

Wednesday:• All day, Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.5 million SAAR in August from 16.4 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).• 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.4% Year-over-year in July

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports...Show More Summary

Construction Spending increased 1.8% in July

Earlier the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in July:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during July 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $981.3 billion, 1.8 percent above the revised June estimate of $963.7 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increases to 59.0 in August

The ISM manufacturing index suggests faster expansion in August than in July. The PMI was at 59.0% in August, up from 57.1% in July. The employment index was at 58.1%, down slightly from 58.2% in July, and the new orders index was at...Show More Summary

Black Knight releases Mortgage Monitor for July

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for July today. According to BKFS, 5.64% of mortgages were delinquent in July, down from 5.70% in June. BKFS reports that 1.85% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.82% in July 2013.This gives a total of 7.49% delinquent or in foreclosure. Show More Summary

State and Local Governments: Contributions to GDP and Employment

Two and half years ago I argued that "most of the drag from state and local governments would be over by mid-year 2012. Just eliminating the drag from state and local governments would help GDP and employment growth". This has been an...Show More Summary

Mortgage Rates: A Long Way to Fall for a Significant Increase in Refinance Activity

I've seen some recent discussion suggesting that mortgage refinance activity might pickup significantly if mortgage rates fall just a little more. I think this is incorrect.First, from Freddie Mac last week: Mortgage Rates Remain Low Heading Into Holiday WeekendFreddie Mac... Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index declined in July

From the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Dipped in July Due in part to a dampened outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a modest decline in July. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of August 31st

This will be a busy week for economic data. The key report is the August employment report on Friday.Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday and August vehicle sales on Wednesday.The ECB rate decision and press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday will be closely watched. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 439 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 29, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: As expected, the FDIC released q2 industry results and provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity. Show More Summary

Merrill and Goldman Forecasts for August Non-Farm Payrolls

The August employment report will be released next Friday, September 5th and the consensus is that 210 thousand payroll jobs were added in August. Here are two forecasts:From economist Kris Dawsey at Goldman Sachs: Employment indicators have strengthened a bit in August vs. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined to 2.0% in July, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in July to 2.00% from 2.05% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.70% in July 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. The...Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy up 5%, RevPAR up 11.0% Year-over-Year

From STR: US results for week ending 23 AugustThe U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 17-23 August 2014, according to data from STR.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rate rose 5.0 percent to 70.6 percent. Show More Summary

August Consumer Sentiment increases to 82.5

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August was at 82.5, up from the preliminary reading of 79.2, and up from 81.8 in July.This was above the consensus forecast of 80.3. Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.2% in July, Spending decreased 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $28.6 billion, or 0.2 percent... in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $13.6...Show More Summary

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. Show More Summary

Regional Manufacturing Surveys suggest Solid August ISM index

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Slowed Slightly The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist...Show More Summary

FDIC: Earnings increased for insured institutions, Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 today. Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $40.2 billion in the second quarter of 2014, up $2.0 billion (5.3 percent) from earnings of $38.2 billion the industry reported a year earlier. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 3.3% in July, down 2.1% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Pick Up in JulyThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, climbed 3.3 percent to 105.9 in July from 102.5 in June, but is still 2.1 percent below July 2013 (108.2). Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 298,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending August 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 298,000 to 299,000. Show More Summary

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