Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9415
Posts / Week:22.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Construction Spending decreased 1.8% in April

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased 1.8% in April compared to March:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during April 2016Show More Summary

Wednesday: ISM Mfg Survey, ADP Employment, Construction Spending, Auto Sales, Beige Book

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). Show More Summary

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller Graphs: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in MarchThe year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In March, the index was up...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity declined in May

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity DeclinesTexas factory activity declined in May after two months of increases, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index,...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller Graphs: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in March

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in March

Note: S&P is having difficulty this morning. From the WSJ: U.S. Home Price Growth Remained Robust in March, Case-Shiller SaysThe S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering the entire nation rose 5.2% in the 12 months ended in March,...Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.4% in April, Spending increased 1.0%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April: Personal income increased $69.8 billion, or 0.4 April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $119.2...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Personal Income and Outlays, Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI

Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. Show More Summary

Hamilton: 'Trends in oil supply and demand'

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Trends in oil supply and demand. A few excerpts: The new supplies from the U.S., Iraq, and Iran brought prices down dramatically. And in response, demand has been climbing back up. U.S. consumption over the last 12 months was 800,000 b/d higher than in 2013, a 4% increase. Show More Summary

Gasoline Prices: Down 40 cents per gallon from last year on Memorial Day

According to, gasoline prices are down to a national average of $2.33 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $2.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $3.75 per gallon.This...Show More Summary

The War on Data

People have different priorities and different values. But we share the same data. Over the last few days, we've heard a presidential contender make comments completing ignoring the data. This should concern everyone - ignoring dataShow More Summary

May 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 205 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 2016. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for May 2016. During the month, the list fell from 214 institutions to 205 after 12 removals and three additions. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of May 29, 2016

The key report this week is the May employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include May vehicle sales, the May ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the April trade deficit. ----- Monday, May 30th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rates declined in April

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate decreased in April to 1.15% from 1.20% in March. Freddie's rate is down from 1.66% in April 2015. This is the lowest rate since August 2008.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

Lawler: Sustained Regional Home Price Declines Were Not That Uncommon from the Mid-80’s to the Mid-90’s

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Sustained Regional Home Price Declines Were Not That Uncommon from the Mid-80’s to the Mid-90’sDuring any 5-year period that including any part the late 70’s there were virtually no areas that experienced a drop in home prices. Show More Summary

Consumer Sentiment at 94.7

Click on graph for larger image. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May was at 94.7, down from the preliminary reading of 95.8, and up from 89.0 in April: "Consumers were a bit less optimistic in late May than earlier in the month, but sentiment was still substantially higher than last month. Show More Summary

Q1 GDP Revised Up to 0.8% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Second Estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production,...Show More Summary

Friday: GDP, Yellen

A few excerpts from a research piece by Ethan Harris at Merrill Lynch: Fed Watch: June, July or September? It is now clear that June is very much on the table. What is less clear is whether the Fed is just protesting the super-low probability priced into the markets or is setting us up for a June hike. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR in May

The automakers will report May vehicle sales on Wednesday, June 1st.Note: There were 24 selling days in May, down from 26 in May 2015.From WardsAuto: May Forecast Calls for Improved Sales, Days’ Supply WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "declined modestly" in May

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined ModestlyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal...Show More Summary

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