Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10764
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Rise 1.1 Percent in May"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Rise 1.1 Percent in May; Median Sales Price Ascends to New HighExisting-home sales rebounded in May following a notable decline in April, and low inventory levels helped propel the median sales price...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index positive in May

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Design billings maintain solid footing, with strong momentum reflected in both project inquiries and design contracts Design...Show More Summary

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Fall Slightly to Remain Near 8-Month LowsMortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 9% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in May were up 9.3% year-over-year. Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer "flat" in June

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Remains SteadyThe Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by theShow More Summary

Oil Prices Lower, Down Year-over-year

From CNBC: Oil prices are tumbling more than 2% to $43 a barrel right nowU.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were last down $1.19, or 2.7 percent, at $43.01. Click on graph for larger image The first graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA. Show More Summary

Lawler: Single-Family Housing Production ‘Shortfall” All In Modestly Sized, Modestly Price Segment

A short note from housing economist Tom Lawler: Single-Family Housing Production ‘Shortfall” All In Modestly Sized, Modestly Price SegmentThe number of US single-family homes completed last year that had at least 3,000 square feet of floor area (222,000). Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at...Show More Summary

Hotels: Hotel Occupancy down Year-over-Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 10 JuneThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 4-10 June 2017, according to data from STR.In comparison...Show More Summary

Q2 GDP Forecasts being Revised Down

From Merrill Lynch: Housing starts were a big disappointment in May, plunging 5.5% to 1,092k saar from 1,156k in April.... Feeding the data into our tracking model sliced 0.1pp from our 2Q estimate, leaving us at 2.2% qoq saar.From the...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 18, 2017From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are up 6 and DOW futures are up 40 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $44.84 per barrel and Brent at $47.13 per barrel. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of June 11, 2017

The key economic reports this week are New and Existing Home sales for May. ----- Monday, June 19th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, June 20th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Wednesday, June...Show More Summary

Oil Rigs: "Smallest four week add since last year"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on June 16, 2017:• The party’s over. Oil prices are beginning to weigh on drilling activity.• Total US oil rigs were up 6 to 747• However, only 1 new horizontal oil rig...Show More Summary

Lawler: Reasonable Population Projections Are Important!

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Reasonable Population Projections Are Important!One of the key variables analysts look at in attempting to project such things as housing demand, labor force growth, government “entitlement” spending,...Show More Summary

Comments on May Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.092 Million Annual Rate in May The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down 5.5% in May compared to April, and were down 2.4% year-over-year compared to May 2016. This...Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in May, Four States at New Series Lows

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in May in 9 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 38 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Show More Summary

Housing Starts decreased to 1.092 Million Annual Rate in May

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,092,000. This is 5.5 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,156,000 and is 2.4 percent below the May 2016 rate of 1,119,000. Show More Summary

Friday: Housing Starts

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.221 million, up from the April rate of 1.172 million.• At 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for May 2017• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for June). The consensus is for a reading of 97.1, unchanged from 97.1 in May.

Sacramento Housing in May: Sales up 7%, Active Inventory down 14% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes...Show More Summary

Earlier: NY and Philly Manufacturing Surveys Suggest Solid Growth in June

Earlier, from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-one points to 19.8, its highest level in more than two years. Show More Summary

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