Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8119
Posts / Week:21.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Construction Spending increased 0.8% in May

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in May:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during May 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,035.8 billion, 0.8 percent above the revised April estimate of $1,027.0 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increased to 53.5 in June

The ISM manufacturing index suggested expansion in June. The PMI was at 53.5% in June, up from 52.8% in May. The employment index was at 55.5%, up from 51.7% in May, and the new orders index was at 56.0%, up from 55.8%.From the Institute...Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 237,000 in June

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 237,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Drop in Latest MBA Weekly Survey as Rates IncreaseMortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly MortgageShow More Summary

Wednesday: ISM Mfg, ADP Employment, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

Statement by the IMF on GreecePress Release No.15/310June 30, 2015 Mr. Gerry Rice, Director of Communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today regarding Greece’s financial obligations to the...Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since August 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in May to 1.70% from 1.73% in April. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.08% in May 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008. TheShow More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index indicates expansion in May

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Remained in Positive Territory in MayAlthough same-stores sales and customer traffic levels softened somewhat in May, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) remained in positive territory. Show More Summary

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In April 2015, the index was up 4.2% YoY. However the YoY change has only declined slightlyShow More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.2% year-over-year in April

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20Show More Summary

Duy: "Events Continue to Conspire Against the Fed"

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April prices. The consensus is for a 5.4% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April. Show More Summary

Forecast: Auto Sales above 17 Million SAAR in June

Nothing to add on Greece right now, so here is another forecast for June auto sales.From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Remain Above 17 Million in JuneA WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.48 million light...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.0% in April, 4.9% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting Texas factory activity declined again in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.9% in May, up 10% year-over-year

From CNBC: Pending home sales rise 0.9% in May, highest level since 2006Signed contracts to buy existing homes, so-called pending home sales, rose just 0.9 percent in May from April, according to the National Association of Realtors, after a downward revision to April's reading. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures: Greece and Puerto Rico

From the NY Times: Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’Puerto Rico’s governor, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion...Show More Summary

Greece: ECB Freezes Level of Emergency Loans

Some comments from analysts at the Financial Times Alphaville: Greece: bank analysts and eurowatchers on what to expect on MondayThe analysts make good point on Greek banks, and also on the odds of the Greeks voting for more austerity,...Show More Summary

June 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 309 Institutions, Q2 2015 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2015. During the month, the list fell from 324 institutions to 309 after 16 removals and one addition. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of June 28, 2015

The key report this week is the June employment report on Thursday.Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, June vehicle sales on June, and the April Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday. ----- Monday, June 29th ----- 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. Show More Summary

June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts

The June employment report will be released on Thursday, July 2nd. Here are a couple of forecasts:From Nomura: [W]e forecast a 230k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 235k. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts for June: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best June in a Decade

The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Wednesday, July 1st. Sales in May were at 17.7 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales will in June will be over 17 million SAAR again. Note: There were 26 selling days in June, one less than in June 2014. Show More Summary

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