Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8407
Posts / Week:22
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Schedule for Week of September 6, 2015

This will be light week for economic data. ----- Monday, September 7th ----- All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday. ----- Tuesday, September 8th ----- 9:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August.10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI). Show More Summary

Will the Fed raise rates in September?

Economist are uncertain whether the Fed will increase the Fed Funds rate in September...From Neil Irwin at the NY Times The Upshot: A Positive Jobs Report Keeps the Fed in a Tricky SpotNothing about the latest numbers is likely to tip the balance for the Fed one way or the other. Show More Summary

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is another update of an earlier post through the August employment report.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). Show More Summary

August Employment Report Comments and more Graphs

Earlier: August Employment Report: 173,000 Jobs, 5.1% Unemployment RateThis was a decent employment report with 173,000 jobs added, and employment gains for June and July were revised up.There was even some wage growth, from the BLS:...Show More Summary

August Employment Report: 173,000 Jobs, 5.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and social assistance and in financial activities. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

From Justin Lahart at the WSJ: Jobs Report Could Seal the Deal on RatesJ.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli thinks the Fed will stand pat, leaving its target range on overnight rates at zero-to-0.25%. But an increase of 250,000 jobsShow More Summary

Goldman Employment Forecast: 190K Jobs

A brief excerpt from a research note by Goldman Sachs economist Chris Mischaikow August Payrolls Preview We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 190k in August, below the consensus forecast of 218k and down from July’s 215k gain. Labor market indicators were mixed last month. Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for August

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for August. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 223,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August (with a range of estimates between 173,000 to 257,000),...Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 59.0% in August

The August ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 59.0%, down from 60.3% in July. The employment index decreased in August to 56.0%, down from 59.6% in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit decreased in July to $41.8 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from $45.2 billion in June, revised. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 282,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending August 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 282,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 271,000 to 270,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM non-mfg

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Still Waiting for Bigger NewsMortgage rates were almost flat again today. Most lenders were just a hair higher in costs vs yesterday. The most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote remains 4.0% for top tier scenarios, but 3.875% is still available. Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before August 24, 2015."Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate economic activity continued expanding across most regions and sectors during the reporting period from July to mid-August. Show More Summary

FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 today: Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $43.0 billion in the second quarter of 2015, up $2.9 billion (7.3 percent) from a year earlier and the highest quarterly income on record. Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 190,000 in August

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 190,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 25% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 11.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage ApplicationsShow More Summary

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book

Auto sales and construction spending were solid, although manufacturing was weak. However the weakness in manufacturing is mostly due to lower oil prices and the strong dollar, so overall the US data has been fairly solid.Wednesday:•...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 17.7 million annual rate in August

Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.72 million SAAR in August. That is up 2.9% from August 2014, and up 1.3% from the 17.5 million annual sales rate last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graphShow More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in July

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports...Show More Summary

Construction Spending increased 0.7% in July

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in July:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during July 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,083.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,075.9 billion. Show More Summary

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