Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9177
Posts / Week:22.3
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Personal Income increased 0.2% in February, Spending increased 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent... according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $11.0 billion,...Show More Summary

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales

This immigration program has really boosted sales in certain California and New York areas, from the WSJ: U.S. Immigration Program for Foreign Investors Sees Demand Surge The program, known as EB-5, received applications from 17,691 investors in 2015, up from 11,744 in 2014 and 6,554 in 2013, according to figures released last week by U.S. Show More Summary

Hotels: Supply increased faster than Demand in January and February

From Freitag’s 5: US RevPAR growth underwhelms in February 1. RevPAR has now grown for 72 monthsEven though the numbers are small, they are positive. We expect them to be so for the next 18 months. Just like last month,...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of March 27, 2016

The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include March vehicle sales, the March ISM manufacturing index, February Personal income and outlays, and the January Case-Shiller house price index.Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Tuesday on the "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy". Show More Summary

March 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 222 Institutions, Q1 2016 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for March 2016. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for March 2016. Show More Summary

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.0% year-over-year in January

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported today:Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.0% (4.8 billion vehicle miles) for January 2016 as compared with January 2015.Travel for the month is estimated to be 240.7 billion vehicle...Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 22 States in February

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were little changed in February. Twenty-two states had unemployment rate decreases from January, 8 states had increases, and 20 states and the District of Columbia had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

Q4 GDP Revised Up to 1.4% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production,...Show More Summary

Goldman: "Inflation Finally Begins to Firm"

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2015 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.0% annualized in Q4, unrevised from the second estimate.• At 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment...Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Reach All Time High for the Month of March

The automakers will report March vehicle sales on Friday, April 1st.Note: There were 27 selling days in March, up from 25 in March 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: March Sales Set to Hit Record-HighA WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers...Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "remained negative" in March

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Remained NegativeThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the March Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at theShow More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 265,000

The DOL reported:Note: This week's release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The seasonal adjustment factors used for the UI Weekly Claims data from 2011 forward, along with the...Show More Summary

Thursday: Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims

Here is an interesting paper from Jordan Rappaport at the Kansas City Fed: The Limited Supply of Homes Over the longer term, the supply of homes for purchase should considerably improve as baby boomers increasingly downsize from single-family to multifamily homes. Show More Summary

Comments on February New Home Sales

The new home sales report for February was slightly above expectations at 512,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and combined sales for November, December and January were revised up.Sales were down 6.1% year-over-year (YoY) compared to February 2015. Show More Summary

AIA: "Modest Expansion for Architecture Billings Index"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Modest Expansion for Architecture Billings IndexThe Architecture Billings Index saw a dip into negative terrain for theShow More Summary

New Home Sales increased to 512,000 Annual Rate in February

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 512 thousand. The previous three months were revised up by a total of 12 thousand (SAAR)."Sales of new single-family houses in February...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 25% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 18, 2016....The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Black Knight's First Look at February Mortgage Data: Delinquency rate lowest since April 2007

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at February Mortgage Data: Delinquencies Fully Recover from January Spike, Hit Lowest Level Since April 2007• Delinquency rate down 13 percent month-over-month; down nearly...Show More Summary

Wednesday: New Home Sales

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase...Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer Expands in March

Here is an indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Expands in MarchThe Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading...Show More Summary

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