Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10558
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in March"A few key points:1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March "I...Show More Summary

NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in March"

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in MarchTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, ascended 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.71 million in March from a downwardly revised 5.47 million in February. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in March to 11 Year Low

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at March Mortgage Data: Delinquency Rate Drops to 11-Year Low; Prepayments Up 20 Percent from February’s Three-Year Low• Delinquencies declined 14 percent month-over-month, hitting their lowest...Show More Summary

Friday: Existing Home Sales

I expect existing home sales to be above the consensus forecast, see: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus...Show More Summary

Hotels: Hotel Occupancy Rate Decreases Year-over-Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 15 April The U.S. hotel industry reported negative results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 9-15 April 2017, according to data from STR.Opposite from...Show More Summary

NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in April Survey

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Sluggish in the April NMHC Quarterly SurveyDespite moderate improvements over the first quarter of 2017, all four indexes of the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions remained below the breakeven level of 50. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: Manufacturing "Continued to expand, but at a slower pace" in April

Earlier from the Philly Fed: Current Indicators Continue to Reflect GrowthResults from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand, but at a slower pace than last month. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 244,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending April 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,000, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 247,250. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Some interesting comments from Dave Altig, Nicholas Parker and Brent Meyer at Macroblog: The Fed’s Inflation Goal: What Does the Public Know? [O]ne natural question is whether the public is aware of this 2 percent target. We've posed...Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: Modest to Moderate expansion, Tight labor markets

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before April 10, 2017."Economic activity increased in each of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts between mid-February and the end of March, with the pace of expansion equally split between modest and moderate. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in March

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index continues to strengthenThe first quarter of the year ended on a positive note for the Architecture Billings Index (ABI). Show More Summary

Wednesday: Beige Book

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Pushing Deep Into Post-Election RangeAfter stumbling just slightly yesterday, mortgage rates returned to their recent habit of setting new 2017 lows today. At this point, we're getting closer and closer to post-election lows. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in February

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 90. Show More Summary

Comments on March Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in MarchThe housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down in March compared to February, and were up 9.2% year-over-year compared to March 2016.Note...Show More Summary

Industrial Production increased 0.5% in March

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in March after moving up 0.1 percent in February. The increase in March was more than accounted for by a jump of 8.6 percent inShow More Summary

Housing Starts decreased to 1.215 Million Annual Rate in March

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000. This is 6.8 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,303,000, but is 9.2 percent above the March 2016 rate of 1,113,000. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fairly Steady Near 2017 LowsFor the third day in a row, mortgage rates set new 2017 lows this morning. But as bond markets weakened into the afternoon, several lenders recalled...Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly available state and local realtor/MLS reports released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 10% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in March were up 8.8% year-over-year. Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 68 in April

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 68 in April, down from 71 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder...Show More Summary

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