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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13873
Posts / Week:40.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Personal Income increased 0.2% in October, Spending increased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $32.9 billion, or 0.2 percent... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 313,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 291,000 to 292,000. Show More Summary

Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income, Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home sales

Earlier the FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 today. Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $38.7 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up $2.6 billion (7.3 percent) from earnings of $36.1 billion the industry reported a year earlier. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since December 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in October to 1.91% from 1.96% in September. Freddie's rate is down from 2.28% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. Show More Summary

House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September

The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases is ongoing. In November 2013, the Comp 20 index was up 13.8% year-over-year (YoY). Now the index is only up 4.9% YoY. This is the smallest YoY increase since October 2012 (the National...Show More Summary

NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q3 2014, "Deleveraging process has ended"

Here is the Q3 report: Household Debt and Credit Report. From the NY Fed:Aggregate household debt balances increased slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2014. As of September 30, 2014, total household indebtedness was $11.71 trillion, up by 0.7% from its level in the second quarter of 2014, an increase of $78 billion. Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in September

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3 month average of July, August and September prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Q3 GDP Revised Up to 3.9% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate...Show More Summary

Tuesday: GDP, Case-Shiller House Prices, Q3 Household Debt and Credit Report and much more

There has been little precipitation in California so far this year - following three years of drought - from the NY Times: As Snow Fades, California Ski Resorts Are Left High and Very DryThe season is just starting, and snow may yetShow More Summary

Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates below 4%, Lowest in 1-Month

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Now at 1-Month LowsMortgage rates continue making improvements so small and so steady that they're barely noticeable, but they're improvements just the same. That's recently meant that we've technically been in the best territory in nearly a month recently. Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index down slightly in September, Up 4.6% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes; Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing "Posts Slower Growth" in November

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Posts Slower Growth Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, aShow More Summary

Chicago Fed: Index shows "economic activity was near its historical trend" in October

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth decelerated in AugustLed by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.14 in October from +0.29 in September. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Lower oil prices and the U.S. economyLast year Americans consumed 135 billion gallons of gasoline. That means that if prices stay where they are, consumers will have an extra $108 billion each year to spend on other things. Show More Summary

Update: Business Cycles and Markets

For fun... recently we've seen another recession call for 2015, this time from the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center (following their an incorrect recession call in 2011). Over the last few years, there were several incorrect recession calls from ECRI and others. Show More Summary

Update: More 2015 Housing Forecasts

Update: I've added the MBA and Goldman Sachs forecasts. Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of November 23rd

This will be a short, but busy holiday week. The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q3 GDP, October New Home sales, October personal income and outlays, and September Case-Shiller house prices.For manufacturing, the November...Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 411 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 21, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: The OCC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity that resulted in several removals from the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Could Reach 17 Million" SAAR in November

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.Note:...Show More Summary

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.3% year-over-year in September

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.3% (5.6 billion vehicle miles) for September 2014 as compared with September 2013.Travel for the month is estimated to be 246.6 billion vehicle...Show More Summary

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