Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9830
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.4% in July, Up 5.3% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Monday: New Home Sales, Presidential Debate

I mentioned this on twitter earlier today:I spoke to a local infill spec builder yesterday who has been asking me for advice for several years (and happy with my advice!). The builder brought up the election... The spec builder told me he was thinking of voting for Trump because his tax rate would be lower. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Rebound in September

The automakers will report September vehicle sales on Monday, October 3rd.Note: There were 25 selling days in September, the same as in September 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. SAAR to Rebound in September The forecast 17.6 million SAAR is greater than 16.9 million from prior-month and the 17.2 million over the first eight months of the year. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Sept 25, 2016

The key economic report this week is August New Home Sales. Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August, and the Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.Also the third estimate of Q2 GDP will be released.For manufacturing,...Show More Summary

FDIC Closes Bank in Arkansas; Fifth Failed Bank of 2016

From the FDIC: Today's Bank, Huntsville, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Allied Bank Mulberry, ArkansasAllied Bank, Mulberry, Arkansas, was closed today by the Arkansas State Banking Department, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in August

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in nine, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 60. Show More Summary

Unemployment and Wages: "A Dirty Little Secret"

I'm reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is "dirty" in the sense that it is unspoken. Show More Summary

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in August

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in August.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures...Show More Summary

Lawler on August Existing Home Sales

From housing economist Tom Lawler:In a report released this morning, the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million, down 0.9% from July’s downwardly revised (to 5.38 million from 5.39 million) pace and up 0.8% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Show More Summary

FHFA: House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in July

Earlier from the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in July 2016U.S. house prices rose in July, up 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Rebounded Moderately" in September

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Rebounded ModeratelyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economistShow More Summary

A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales decreased in August to 5.33 million SAARInventory remains a key issue. Here is repeat of two paragraphs I wrote about inventory a few months ago:I expected some increase in inventory last year, but that didn't happened. Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales decreased in August to 5.33 million SAAR

Update: Headline typo fixed.From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Soften Further in AugustTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in August from a downwardly revised 5.38 million in July. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 252,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending September 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 252,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 258,500,Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies declined in August

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at August 2016 Mortgage Data: Prepayments Skyrocket, Fueled by Post-‘Brexit’ Activity, Hit Highest Single-Month Rate in Over Three Years • Monthly prepayment rate (historically a good indicator...Show More Summary

Merrill: "Fed signals December hike"

This is now the consensus view - one rate hike in 2016, most likely in December (but the November meeting is "live")... From Merrill Lynch: Fed signals December hike The FOMC clearly signaled a hike before the end of the year in both the language and the dots. Show More Summary

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

Statement here. No change to policy.As far as the "Appropriate timing of policy firming", participants generally think that rates will be at 0.625% by the end of the year.The FOMC projections for inflation are still on the low side through 2018.Yellen press conference video here.On the projections, GDP was revised down for 2016. Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy, "The case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened"

Preparing for a rate hike soon...FOMC Statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index declines in August

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index slips, overall outlook remains positiveOn the heels of six out of seven months of increasing levels of demand for design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell just below the positive mark. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement

Here is a Review of FOMC ProjectionsAnd a few excerpts from a piece by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius: FOMC Preview: How Much Is Really a-Changin? [W]e now see very low chances of a rate increase... By our count, seven FOMC participants would prefer to raise the funds rate next week, and two seem to be leaning that way. Show More Summary

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