Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:7741
Posts / Week:21.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Campbell Survey: "Strong spring home buying season"

Here is a survey I follow.From Campbell Surveys: Spring Home Buying Season Expected To Be Strong, Particularly for First-Time Homebuyers, According to HousingPulse Survey (no link) Trends in homebuyer traffic along with rising demand...Show More Summary

DataQuick: California Bay Area February Home Sales Decline

From DataQuick: Bay Area February Home Sales Decline; Smaller Gain for Median Sale Price The number of homes sold was slightly lower than in January and was the lowest for the month of February in seven years.... A total of 4,376 new and existing houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in February 2015. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 3.78% in Latest Weekly Survey

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates Move Down as We Head Into SpringFreddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving down across the board. The average...Show More Summary

Lawler on Lennar: Orders Up Despite Weather; Margins Down a Bit on Diminished Pricing Power; and Confusion on Houston

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Lennar Corporation, the nation’s second largest homebuilder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended February 28, 2015 totaled 5,287, up 18.4% from the comparable quarter of 2014. The average net order price was $346,000, up 5.8% from a year ago. Show More Summary

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 5.0 in March

From the Philly Fed: March Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing activity in the region increased at a modest pace in March, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity and new orders were positive and remained near their low readings in February.... Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 291,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 289,000 to 290,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

From Tim Duy: Yellen Strikes a Dovish ToneThe FOMC concluded its two-day meeting today, and the results were largely as I had anticipated. The Fed took note of the recent data, downgrading the pace of activity from "solid" to "moderated." They continue to expect inflation weakness to be transitory. Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country, I project that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million...Show More Summary

FOMC Projections and Press Conference

Statement here "Patient" was removed, unlikely rate hike in April, "growth has moderated".As far as the "Appropriate timing of policy firming", participant views were unchanged (15 participants expect the first rate hike in 2015, and...Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: No "Patient", "Growth has moderated"

Dropped "patient", "economic growth has moderated", unlikely to hike rates in April.FOMC Statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic Declined Sharply in February due to Labor Issues

Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st.Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report for February...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases slightly in February

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Improves in February After its first negative score in ten months, the Architecture Billings...Show More Summary

Wednesday: Fed Day!

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed to Markets: No More PromisesAhead of their policy meeting that ends Wednesday, Fed officials have signaled they want to drop the latest iteration in a succession of low-rate promises—a line in their policy statement pledging to be “patient” before deciding to raise rates.The move could be a test for investors. Show More Summary

DataQuick: Southern California February Home Sales down 3% Year-over-year

From DataQuick: Southern California Home Sales Dip Year Over Year Again; Median Price Edges HigherCoreLogic®... today released its February 2015 Southern California housing market report, which shows the number of homes sold rose slightly from January but hit the lowest level for a February in seven years.... Show More Summary

Comments on February Housing Starts

As always, we we shouldn't let one month of data influence us too much. For February it appears housing starts were impacted by the weather, especially in the Northeast.Here is a table showing starts in the four Census Bureau regions. Show More Summary

BLS: Twenty-four States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in January

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were little changed in January. Twenty-four states had unemployment rate decreases from December, 8 states had increases, and 18 states and the District of Columbia had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: "1.2 Million US Borrowers Regained Equity in 2014, 5.4 Million Properties Remain in Negative Equity"

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 1.2 Million US Borrowers Regained Equity in 2014CoreLogic... today released new analysis showing 1.2 million borrowers regained equity in 2014, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q4 2014 to approximately 44.5 million or 89 percent of all mortgaged properties. Show More Summary

Housing Starts decreased sharply to 897 thousand Annual Rate in February

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 897,000. This is 17.0 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,081,000...Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in February: Total Sales up 12% Year-over-year

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For some time, not much changed. But over the last 2+ years we've seen some significant changes...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Housing Starts

From Reuters: U.S. fuel consumption is soaring amid cheaper prices (ht Shane)Fuel demand in Texas is growing strongly as lower oil prices encourage motorists to use their vehicles more and buy larger replacements.Receipts of motor fuel...Show More Summary

Copyright © 2015 Regator, LLC