Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8261
Posts / Week:21.9
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg Survey

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. Although this is the May report, it is really a 3 month average of March, April and May prices. The consensus is for a 5.6% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts for July: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best July in a Decade

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Monday, August 3rd. Sales in June were at 17.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in July will be over 17 million SAAR again. Note: There were 26 selling days in July, the same as in July 2014. Show More Summary

ATA Trucking Index decreased 0.5% in June

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.5% in JuneAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.5% in June, following a revised gain of 0.8% during May. Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Slump Moderates"

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Slump Moderates, Outlooks Improve Texas factory activity declined slightly in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index,...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.1% in May, 5.1% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.From Black Knight: U.S. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From Ben Leubsdorf and Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Officials May Offer More Clarity on RatesFederal Reserve officials are likely to emerge from their policy meeting Wednesday with short-term interest rates still pinned near zero,Show More Summary

WSJ: More Oil Industry Layoffs Coming

From Lynn Cook at the WSJ: Sudden Drop in Crude-Oil Prices Roils U.S. Energy Firms’ ReboundU.S. energy companies are planning more layoffs, asset sales and financial maneuvers to deal with a recent, sudden drop in U.S. crude-oil prices...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of July 26, 2015

The key reports this week are Q2 GDP on Thursday, and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting. ----- Monday, July 27th ----- 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 40 states in June

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for June 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 66. Show More Summary

Nomura on Q2 GDP and Annual Revision

A few excerpts from a research note by economists at Nomura: Q2 GDP, first estimate (Thursday): Economic activity in Q2 bounced back after slowing in Q1. However, some factors such as low energy prices and the strong dollar likely continued to weigh on business activity. Show More Summary

Comments on New Home Sales

The new home sales report for June was well below expectations at 482 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and there were also downward revisions to prior months. However sales are still up solidly for 2015 compared...Show More Summary

New Home Sales decreased to 482,000 Annual Rate in June

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 482 thousand. The previous three months were revised down by a total of 49 thousand (SA)."Sales of new single-family houses in June 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Goldman FOMC Preview

Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 550 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 546 thousand in May.A few excerpts fromShow More Summary

Merrill on the Annual GDP Revision and Q2 GDP

Excerpts from a research piece by Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch: The moment of truth• The annual revision to GDP growth on July 30th will adjust estimates of growth over the past few years. If growth is indeed revised higher it would...Show More Summary

Black Knight's First Look at June: Foreclosure Inventory at Lowest Level Since 2007

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ “First Look” at June Mortgage Data: Foreclosure Inventory at Lowest Level Since 2007, Still Three Times “Normal” RateAccording to Black Knight's First Look report for June, the percent...Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in July

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined AgainThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal...Show More Summary

Chicago Fed: Index shows "Economic Growth Picked Up Slightly in June"

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Growth Picked Up Slightly in JuneLed by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.08 in June from –0.08 in May. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 255,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 255,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 281,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 24, 1973 when it was 233,000. Show More Summary

A Few Random Comments on June Existing Home Sales

First, as always, new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in June, "Multi-family housing design showing signs of slowing"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Institutional Project Demand Drives Architecture Billings Index to Highest Mark Since 2007Paced by continued demand forShow More Summary

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