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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13610
Posts / Week:40.9
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Lawler on Homebuilder KB Home and New Home Sales Report

From housing economist Tom Lawler: KB Home: Net Orders Up 5% YOY, Orders/Community Flat; Deliveries Down on Delays in Construction Schedules and Customer Mortgage Loan ClosingsKB Home reported that net home orders in the quarter ended August 31, 2014 totaled 1,827, up 5.2% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Show More Summary

Comments on New Home Sales

The new home sales report for August was above expectations at 504 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was the highest sales rate since May 2008. However, we need to remember this was just one month of data.Also...Show More Summary

Wednesday: New Home Sales

From Matthew Klein at FT Alphaville: Fix housing finance, fix the economy?Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor have just come out with a paper on the increasingly important role that real estate, particularly residential real...Show More Summary

ATA Trucking Index increased 1.6% in August

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 1.6% in August to New Record HighAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.6% in August, following a gain of 1.5% the previous month. Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer "Pace of Growth Slows for Leading Economic Indicator"

Here is a new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Pace of Growth Slows for Leading Economic Indicator for Second Consecutive MonthThe Chemical...Show More Summary

Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing conditions strengthened in September"

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Grew Moderately; Employment Improved, Average Wages Edged DownOverall, manufacturing conditions strengthened in September. The composite index for manufacturing moved to a reading of 14 following last month's reading of 12. Show More Summary

FHFA: House Prices increase 0.1% in July, Up 4.4% Year-over-year

This house price index is only for houses with Fannie or Freddie mortgages. Note: There is also a quarterly expanded index that was up 5.8% year-over-year in Q2. From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Rises in JulyU.S. house prices rose...Show More Summary

Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates at 4.22%, Down from 4.45% Last September

I use the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) to track mortgage rates. The PMMS series started in 1971, so there is a fairly long historical series. For daily rates, the Mortgage News Daily has a series that tracks the PMMS very well, and is usually updated daily around 3 PM ET. Show More Summary

Lawler: Existing Home Sales Eased in August; NAR Bogusly Blames Monthly Dip on “Retreat” by “All Cash” Investors

From housing economist Tom Lawler:In today’s existing home sales report, the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million, down 1.8% from July’s downwardly-revised (to 5.14 million from 5.15 million), and down 5.3% from last August’s pace. Show More Summary

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 1.5% year-over-year in July

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by 1.5% (4.0 billion vehicle miles) for July 2014 as compared with July 2013.Travel for the month is estimated to be 266.8 billion vehicle miles.Cumulative...Show More Summary

A Few Comments on August Existing Home Sales

The most important number in the NAR report each month is inventory. This morning the NAR reported that inventory was up 4.5% year-over-year in August. It is important to note that the NAR inventory data is "noisy" and difficult to forecast based on other data. Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales in August: 5.05 million SAAR, Inventory up 4.5% Year-over-year

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Slightly Lose Momentum in August as Investor Activity DeclinesTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased...Show More Summary

Chicago Fed: "Index shows economic growth decelerated in August"

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth decelerated in AugustLed by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.21 in August from +0.26 in July. Show More Summary

Monday: Existing Home Sales

Another excellent article from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Should Mortgage Lending Standards Ease?Easy credit fueled the home-price bubble of the past decade, which spurred overbuilding of homes and boosted consumer spending on everything from cars to college educations. Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy up 4.5%, RevPAR up 11.8% Year-over-Year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 13 September The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 7-13 September 2014, according to data from STR.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rate rose 4.5 percent to 68.0 percent. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of September 21st

The key reports this week are August New home sales on Wednesday, Existing home sales on Monday, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday.For manufacturing, the September Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 435 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Sept 19, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Only one addition and deletion to report this week to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Show More Summary

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased 11.9% year-over-year in July

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Advance in July amid Rising Transaction Volume and Improving Liquidity Measures CoStar’s equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index increased by a strong 1.5% in July 2014 and 11.9% for the 12 months ending in July 2014. Show More Summary

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Still Negative in Q2 2014

Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released this morning) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. Show More Summary

BLS: State unemployment rates little changed in August

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in August. Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate increases from July, 15 states had decreases, and 11 states had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

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