Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8058
Posts / Week:21.8
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

CBO: Fiscal 2015 Federal Deficit through May about 10% below Last Year

More good news... the budget deficit in fiscal 2015 will probably be lower than the recent CBO March forecast.From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today: Monthly Budget Review for May 2015The federal government ran a budget deficit of $368 billion for the first eight months of fiscal year 2015, CBO estimates. Show More Summary

Hotels: On Pace for Record Occupancy in 2015, New Construction Increasing

From STR: US results for week ending 30 May The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 24-30 May 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 2.2 percent to 63.5 percent. Show More Summary

May Employment Report Comments and Graphs

Earlier: May Employment Report: 280,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment RateThis was a solid employment report with 280,000 jobs added, and March and April were revised up by a combined 32,000 jobs.There was even some hints of wage growth, from the BLS: "In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $24.96. Show More Summary

May Employment Report: 280,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Here is the employment preview I posted earlier: Preview: Employment Report for MayAnd some comments on various employment indicators: Public and Private Employment DataGoldman Sachs is forecasting 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment...Show More Summary

Lawler: Characteristics Homes Built in 2014; Construction of “Moderately-Sized” SF Homes Remained Low in 2014.

From Housing economist Tom Lawler:Earlier this week the Census Bureau released its annual report on the Characteristics of New Housing Units Completed/Sold for 2014. The report, based on data collected from the Survey of Construction,...Show More Summary

Public and Private Employment Data

Some readers have wondered about the accuracy of the monthly BLS employment report. The report is based on a survey of households, and reports from businesses - for differences see: Household vs. Establishment Series - and the establishment...Show More Summary

NFP: Goldman Sachs, Nomura May Employment Previews

Yesterday I discussed several indicators: Preview: Employment Report for MaySome excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: We forecast a 210k gain in nonfarm payrolls in May, a bit below consensus of 226k and down slightly from April's pace of increase.... Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 276,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 282,000 to 284,000. Show More Summary

Mortgage Rates increase to 4.1%

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 276 thousand from 282 thousand.• Also at 8:30 AM, Productivity and Costs for Q1. The consensus is for...Show More Summary

Preview: Employment Report for May

Another month, another employment report...On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 220,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of...Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded, Respondents "generally optimistic"

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before May 22, 2015"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest overall economic activity expanded during the reporting period from early April to late May. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.7% in May

The May ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 55.7%, down from 57.8% in April. The employment index decreased in May to 55.3%, down from 56.7% in April. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply...Show More Summary

Trade Deficit declined in April to $40.9 Billion

The Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 201,000 in May

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 201,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm...Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 7.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 29, 2015. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, ISM Non-Mfg Index, Beige Book

This made me chuckle today... "If the last seven years have taught investors anything, it’s to focus on the negatives and never change your mind." Josh BrownWednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, ADP Employment Report for May. Show More Summary

Hatzius: September rate hike "sensible in the base case ", "but less than optimal on risk management grounds"

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: A September Hike: Sensible in the Base Case, Premature on Risk Management Grounds The monetary policy path in the March "dot plot", which implies rate...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased to 17.8 million annual rate in May

Based on an AutoData estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.9 million SAAR in May. That is up 6.2% from May 2014, and up 7.3% from the 16.5 million annual sales rate last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the...Show More Summary

Preliminary May Vehicle Sales at 17.7 million SAAR: Best sales rate since 2005, On pace for Best Year since 2001

From WardsAuto: May 2015 U.S. LV Sales Thread: May SAAR Should Top 17 Million May WardsAuto report forecasted LV sales for May at 1.6 million units, equating to a SAAR of nearly 17.5 million units. Wtih 6 of the Top 7 automakers reporting sales are trending at 1.63 million units, equating to a SAAR slightly above 17.7 million units. Show More Summary

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