Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:7885
Posts / Week:21.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in March, First time below 5% since August 2007

According to Black Knight's First Look report for March, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 12% in March compared to February, and declined 15% year-over-year.The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in March and were down about 27% over the last year. Show More Summary

Merrill Lynch forecasting 1.5% GDP in Q1

From Merrill Lynch: We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.5% in 1Q, suggesting the economy hit a soft patch at the start of the year. Business investment looks particularly weak with a likely decline in nonresidential structures investment, as suggested by the monthly Census data, and sluggish growth in equipment investment. Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgage Rates decrease to 3.65% in Latest Weekly Survey

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates Move Down Slightly Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving down slightly this week and remaining near their...Show More Summary

Lawler: More Builder Results

From housing economist Tom Lawler:PulteGroup reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2015 totaled 5,139, up 5.7% from the comparable quarter of 2014. The average net order price last quarter was $332,400, up 0.5% from a year ago. Show More Summary

Comments on New Home Sales

The new home sales report for March was below expectations at 481 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). However, sales for December, January and February were revised up by a combined 35 thousand (SA). So, including...Show More Summary

New Home Sales decline to 481,000 Annual Rate in March

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 481 thousand. The previous months were revised up by a total of 35 thousand (SA)."Sales of new single-family houses in March 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 295,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 295,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 294,000. The 4-week moving average was 284,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 282,750. Show More Summary

Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 290 thousand from 294 thousand.• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus...Show More Summary

Lawler: D.R. Horton: Net Home Orders Up, Prices “Flattish;” Says If Prices are Low Enough, There is “Demand” from First-Time Buyers

From housing economist Tom Lawler:D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest home builder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2015 totaled 11,135, up 29.9% from the comparable quarter of 2015. The average net order price last quarter was $284,400, up 2.0% from a year ago. Show More Summary

A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

Inventory is still very low (but up 2.0% year-over-year in March). More inventory will probably mean smaller price increases and slightly higher sales, and less inventory means lower sales and somewhat larger price increases. This will be important to watch over the next few months during the Spring buying season. Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales in March: 5.19 million SAAR, Inventory up 2.0% Year-over-year

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Spike in MarchTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual...Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in March, Multi-Family Negative

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Accelerates in March For the second consecutive month, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) indicated a modest increase in design activity in March. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Apps up 16% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 17, 2015....The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

Here is a hint, take the over on existing home sales!Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for February 2015. Show More Summary

Chemical Activity Barometer "Leading Economic Indicator Rises for Fourth Consecutive Month"

Here is a relatively new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Leading Economic Indicator Rises for Fourth Consecutive Month; Reaches SevenShow More Summary

Lawler: NVR: Home Orders Jump, Prices “Stable” in Latest Quarter

From housing economist Tom Lawler:NVR, Inc., the nation’s fourth largest home builder with a relatively heavy concentration in the Mid-Atlantic region, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2015 totaled 3,926, up 18.1% from the comparable quarter of 2014. Show More Summary

BLS: Twenty-Three States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in March

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were little changed in March. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from February, 12 states had increases, and 15 states had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

Goldman on Inflation: Pass-Through Disinflation: Not Over Yet

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: How much should we make of the firmer [inflation] recent prints? In our view, not much. The new car and apparel categories are the largest core goods categories, and are also the most sensitive to import prices. Show More Summary

CoreLogic (formerly DataQuick data): SoCal sales up 5.0% Year-over-year

CoreLogic released the Southern California report today for March (CoreLogic acquired DataQuick).The data shows 18,156 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties...Show More Summary

Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slide Sideways Again

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slide Sideways AgainMortgage rates figure if they can't be pushing down to new record lows, they might as well pass the time by shooting for different records. This time around,...Show More Summary

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