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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:12817
Posts / Week:41.9
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Lawler on Lennar: Orders up 10.1% YoY; Prices, Margins Up Sharply; Saw “Volumes Returning,” But Not from First-Time Buyers

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Lennar Corporation, the third largest US home builder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended February 28, 2014 totaled 4,465, up 10.1% from the comparable quarter of 2013. The company’s community count was up 13% YOY. Show More Summary

Update: Predicting the Next Recession

The following is a repeat of a post I wrote in January 2013. This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.A few thoughts on the "next recession"... Forecasters generally have a terrible record at predicting recessions. Show More Summary

ATA Trucking Index increased in February

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Jumped 2.8% in FebruaryThe American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.8% in February, after plunging 4.5% the previous month. Show More Summary

Fed: Large Banks "collectively better positioned" to cope with "an extremely severe economic downturn"

Note: I was strong early supporter of bank stress tests, and I'm glad the Fed has continued testing banks on an annual basis. Hopefully this will continue...From the Federal Reserve: Press ReleaseAccording to the summary results of bank...Show More Summary

Fed: Q4 Household Debt Service Ratio near 30 year low

Here is an update of the Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q4 2013 Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive...Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicated Expansion in March

From the Philly Fed: March Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing activity rebounded in March, according to firms responding to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broadest indicators for general activity, new orders, andShow More Summary

Comments on Existing Home Sales

The NAR reported this morning that inventory was up 5.3% year-over-year in February. A few points:• Inventory is the KEY number in the NAR release.• The NAR inventory data is "noisy" (and difficult to forecast based on other data), however...Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales in February: 4.60 million SAAR, Inventory up 5.3% Year-over-year

The NAR reports: February Existing-Home Sales Remain SubduedTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 320,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 320,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 315,000. The 4-week moving average was 327,000, a decrease...Show More Summary

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

On Fed Chair Janet Yellen's press conference...From Jon Hilsenrath and Victoria McGrane at the WSJ: Yellen Debut Rattles MarketsIn a press conference after the meeting, Ms. Yellen suggested that interest-rate increases might come about six months after the bond-buying program ends—a conclusion that could come this fall. Show More Summary

What does Yellen's "around six months" mean?

During the Q&A today, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said: "[T]he language that we used in the statement is considerable period. So I, you know, this is the kind of term it’s hard to define. But, you know, probably means something on the order...Show More Summary

FOMC Projections and Press Conference

The key sentence in the announcement was: "The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds...Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: More Taper, Forward Guidance Changed

FOMC Statement:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 48 states in January

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 48 states and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 96. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased slightly in February

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Shows Slight ImprovementAfter starting out the year on a positive note, there was another minor increase in the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) last month. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2014....The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC

Another interesting post from Atif Mian, Amir Sufi at House of Debt: The Most Important Economic Chart[O]wners of capital are getting a bigger share of GDP than before. In other words, the share of profits has risen faster than wages. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic: Down year-over-year in February

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for January since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following...Show More Summary

A comment on Housing Starts

There were 123.5 thousand total housing starts in January and February this year (not seasonally adjusted, NSA), down 1% from the 124.8 thousand during the first two months of 2013.Historically January and February are the two weakest...Show More Summary

Key Measures Shows Low Inflation in February

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

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