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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:14127
Posts / Week:40.3
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in December

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Show More Summary

HVS: Q4 2014 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2014. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However,...Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 3.7% in December, up 6.1% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Stall in DecemberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 3.7 percent to 100.7 in December from a slightly downwardly revised 104.6 in November but is 6.1 percent above December 2013 (94.9). Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 265,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending January 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

On mortgage rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back to Long Term Lows After FedMortgage rates fell again today, and while the move wasn't big, it was enough to bring most lenders back in line with the best rates from two weeks ago. Show More Summary

EIA: Record Oil Inventories, Imports at 7.4 million barrels per day

Every week the EIA releases a petroleum status report. I wanted to post an excerpt this week for two reasons: 1) Oil inventories are at a record level for this time of year (see blue line on graph), and 2) the US is a very large oil importer at 7.4 million barrels per day (contrary to some myths).From the EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status ReportU.S. Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: "Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace", "Patient" on Policy

As expected... solid growth, patient on policy.FOMC Statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. Show More Summary

Duy: "While We Wait For Yet Another FOMC Statement..."

From Tim Duy: While We Wait For Yet Another FOMC Statement... Excerpt:The Fed recognizes that hiking rates prematurely to "give them room" in the next recession is of course self-defeating. They are not going to invite a recession simply to prove they have the tools to deal with another recession. Show More Summary

MBA: "Mortgage Applications decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 23, 2015. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

I don't expect much to change in the FOMC statement. I expect "patient" to remain: "Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy."And this sentence...Show More Summary

BLS: Forty-two States had Unemployment Rate Decreases in December

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were generally lower in December. Forty-two states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from November, four states had increases, and four states had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November

This morning, S&P reported that the National index increased 0.8% in October seasonally adjusted. However, it appears the seasonal adjustment has been distorted by the high level of distressed sales in recent years. Trulia's Jed Kolko...Show More Summary

Comments on New Home Sales

Earlier: New Home Sales at 481,000 Annual Rate in December, Highest December since 2007The new home sales for December were at 481 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was the highest level of sales in over 6 years (best December since 2007).However sales in 2014 were only up 1.2% from 2013 (1.4% rounded in table below). Show More Summary

New Home Sales at 481,000 Annual Rate in December, Highest December since 2007

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 481 thousand. October sales were revised up from 445 thousand to 462 thousand, and November sales were revised down from 438 thousand...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in November

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods and More

I was looking at the outer Los Angeles and Long Beach harbor today, and I realized I've never seen so many loaded freighters queued up to unload at the port. The West Coast port slowdown is getting serious.The Long Beach Press Telegram...Show More Summary

Lawler: D.R. Horton reports Home Sales Soared Last Quarter

From housing economist Tom Lawler:D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest home builder, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended December 31, 2014 totaled 7,370, up 35.1% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Net orders per active community were up about 27% YOY. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: "Best January in 8 Years"

The automakers will report January vehicle sales on February 3rd. Sales in December were at 16.8 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in January will be lower - but will probably be the best...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Stalls and Outlook Worsens

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Stalls and Outlook Worsens Texas factory activity was flat in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up slightly in November, Up 4.5% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.From Black Knight: U.S. Show More Summary

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