Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9974
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Update: The Endless Parade of Recession Calls

It was almost a year ago that I wrote: The Endless Parade of Recession Calls. In that post, I pointed out that I wasn't "even on recession watch". Here is a repeat of that post with a few updates in italics.Note: I've made one recession call since starting this blog. Show More Summary

ADP: Private Employment increased 147,000 in October

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 147,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change inShow More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment

A few excerpts from a piece by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius • We expect the statement [the] FOMC meeting to remain relatively upbeat about US growth prospects... However, the committee is very unlikely to raise...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.9 million annual rate in October

Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto (estimate for Ford), light vehicle sales were at a 17.9 million SAAR in October.That is down about slightly from October 2015, and up 1.3% from the 17.65 million annual sales rate last month.From Erin Sunde at WardsAuto October 2016 U.S. Show More Summary

Construction Spending declined in September

Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in September:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during September 2016 was estimated at...Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index increased to 51.9 in October

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in October. The PMI was at 51.9% in October, up from 51.5% in September. The employment index was at 52.9%, up from 49.7% last month, and the new orders index was at 52.1%, down from 55.1%.From...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in September

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic...Show More Summary

Tuesday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates End October Just Off 5-Month HighsMortgage Rates moved sideways to slightly lower for the 2nd day in a row, after hitting the highest levels in 5 months on Thursday. While the...Show More Summary

Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.5%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $46.7 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $61.0 billion (0.5 percent)....Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. Show More Summary

Q3 2016 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report this morning.The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 5.4% annual pace in Q3. This is a turnaround from recent quarters when non-residential investment declined due to less investment in petroleum exploration. Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Increases in October

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Increases Again, but at a Slower PaceTexas factory activity increased again in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in August, Up 5.3% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures: Gasoline Prices up Slightly Year-over-year

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Oct 30, 2016• "How do I protect myself if Trump is elected?"Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. Show More Summary

"How do I protect myself if Trump is elected?"

Quite a few readers have asked me this question. My usual answer is that I expect Ms. Clinton to be elected President, and that the expansion will continue.I've spoken to several key analysts and economists, and for their forecasts, all are assuming Ms. Show More Summary

October 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 177 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for October 2016. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for October 2016. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Oct 30, 2016

The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the October ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, October auto sales, and the September trade deficit.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in September

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was at 1.24% in September, unchanged from 1.24% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.59% in September 2015.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Show More Summary

Goldman: FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from a piece by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius • We expect the statement following next week’s FOMC meeting to remain relatively upbeat about US growth prospects... However, the committee is very unlikely...Show More Summary

October Consumer Sentiment declines to 87.2

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 87.2, down from the preliminary estimate of 87.9, and down from 91.2 in September.The Sentiment Index slipped in October to the same low recorded last September and to the lowest level since October 2014. Show More Summary

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.9% Annualized Rate in Q3

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Show More Summary

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