Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9610
Posts / Week:22.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in June

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in June.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. Show More Summary

FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike, Possibly Preparing for September Rate Hike

The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected.There will no economic projections released at this meeting, and there is no scheduled press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (in the unlikely event...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Stabilizes" in July

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity StabilizesTexas factory activity held steady in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.1% in May, Up 5.4% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 24, 2016• The Future is Still Bright!Monday:• At 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P and DOW futures are down slightly...Show More Summary

The Future is still Bright!

Three and a half years ago I wrote The Future's so Bright.... In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic. It is time for another update!For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy when I started this blog in 2005 - back then I wrote mostly about housing (see: LA Times article and more here for comments about the blog). Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of July 24, 2016

The key reports this week are the first estimate of Q2 GDP, June New Home sales, and the Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.The FOMC is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change in policy is expected this week.For manufacturing, the July Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released this week. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR in July

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Tuesday, Aug 2nd.Note: There were 26 selling days in July, the same as in July 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: July Sales to Return to 17 Million SAAR Trend A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate on Track to be 2nd Best Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 JulyThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 10-16 July 2016, according to data from STR.In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy decreased 1.4% to 77.5%. Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rates stable in 43 states in June

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were significantly higher in June in 6 states, lower in 1 state, and stable in 43 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.... Show More Summary

NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative in July Survey

From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Remain Mixed According to the Latest NMHC Quarterly SurveyApartment markets continued to show mixed conditions in the July 2016 National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. Show More Summary

A Few Comments on June Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in June to 5.57 million SAARFor existing homes, inventory is still key. I expected some increase in inventory last year, but that didn't happened. Inventory is still very low and falling year-over-year (down 5.8% year-over-year in June). Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed Contraction in July

From the Philly Fed: July 2016 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region fell slightly in July, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the indicator for current general activity turned negative, indicators for new orders and shipments were positive. Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales increased in June to 5.57 million SAAR

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascend Again in June, First-time Buyers Provide SparkTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, climbed 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.51 million in May. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declined to 253,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 253,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. The 4-week moving average was 257,750, a decrease...Show More Summary

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, FHFA House Price Index

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 254 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. Show More Summary

CoreLogic: Orange County Median Home Prices Hit New Record

From Jeff Collins at the O.C. Register: $657,500: O.C. median home price hits record The median price of an Orange County home – or the price at the midpoint of all sales – was $657,500, real estate data firm CoreLogic reported Tuesday. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index "remains on solid footing" in June

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index remains on solid footingBuoyed by increasing levels of demand across all project types, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) was positive in June for the fifth consecutive month. Show More Summary

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 15, 2016. Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales: Take the Over

The NAR will report June Existing Home Sales on Thursday, July 21st at 10:00 AM.The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is that the NAR will report sales of 5.48 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales...Show More Summary

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