Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9262
Posts / Week:22.3
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

A Few Comments on March Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in March to 5.33 million SAARI'd consider any existing home sales rate in the 5 to 5.5 million range solid based on the normal historical turnover of the existing stock. I've seen reports calling the February sales rate "dismal" and the March sales rate "a strong rebound". Show More Summary

AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Ends the First Quarter on an Upswing"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Ends the First Quarter on an Upswinghe Architecture Billings Index reflects consecutive months of increasing demand for design activity at architecture firms. Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales increased in March to 5.33 million SAAR

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Spring Ahead in MarchTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in March from a downwardly revised 5.07 million in February. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

One more comment on housing starts, here is my prediction from the beginning of this year: Most analysts are looking for starts to increase to around 1.25 million in 2016, and for new home sales around 560 thousand. This would be anShow More Summary

Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in March

Economist Tom Lawler sent me a preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for a few selected cities in March.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. Show More Summary

Comments on March Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.089 Million Annual Rate in MarchThe housing starts report this morning was below consensus, however there were upward revisions to the prior two months (combined). Still a decent report. StartsShow More Summary

Housing Starts decreased to 1.089 Million Annual Rate in March

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,089,000. This is 8.8 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,194,000,...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Housing Starts

Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for March. Total housing starts decreased to 1.178 million (SAAR) in February. Single family starts increased to 822 thousand SAAR in February. The consensus for 1.167 million, down from the February...Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in March

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in MarchBased on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association...Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 58 in April

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 58 in April, unchanged from 58 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From the...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

For amusement, the Barron's cover this week says "Detroit is Back!" Hmmm... the correct time to be looking for the bottom in auto sales was in 2009. It has been a nice ride.Note: Some yellow journalism sites will trumpet the Barron's cover this week, but remember that they missed the bottom for auto sales in 2009. Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking close to Record Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 9 April The U.S. hotel industry recorded mostly positive results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 3-9 April 2016, according to data from STR.In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy remained flat at 68.2%. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of April 17, 2016

The key economic reports this week are March housing starts on Tuesday, and March Existing Home Sales on Wednesday.From manufacturing, the April Philly Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week. ----- Monday, April 18th ----- 10:00 AM: The April NAHB homebuilder survey. Show More Summary

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in February

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. FNC released their February 2016 index data. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. Show More Summary

Earlier: Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment decreases to 89.7

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April was at 89.7, down from 91.0 in March: Consumer confidence continued its slow overall decline in early April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. To...Show More Summary

BLS: Unemployment Rate decreased in 21 States in March

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryRegional and state unemployment rates were little changed in March. Twenty-one states had unemployment rate decreases from February, 15 states had increases, and 14 states and the District of Columbia had no change, the U.S. Show More Summary

NY Fed: April "General business conditions climbed nine points, highest in more than a year"

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyBusiness activity expanded for New York manufacturing firms for the first time in over a year, according to the April 2016 survey. After remaining in negative territory for seven months,...Show More Summary

Friday: Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, NY Fed Mfg Survey

Friday:• At 8:30 AM, NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 3.0, up from 0.6.• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. The consensus is...Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic Decreased Sharply YoY in March due to Labor Slowdown last Year

Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic early last year due to labor issues that were settled in late February 2015. Port traffic slowed in January and February last year, and then surged in March 2015 as the waiting ships were unloaded (the trade deficit increased in March too). Show More Summary

Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in March

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

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