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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13738
Posts / Week:40.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, and much more

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Gas at $3 Carries Rewards—and RisksGasoline prices have dropped below $3 a gallon at most U.S. gas stations, delivering a welcome lift to American consumers and retailers heading into the holidays. ButShow More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Over 16 Million SAAR again in October

The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Monday, Nov 3rd. Sales in September were at 16.34 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in October will be solidly above 16 million SAAR again.Note:...Show More Summary

ATA Trucking Index Unchanged in September

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Unchanged in SeptemberAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was unchanged in September, following a gain of 1.6% the previous month. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.3% in September, up 1.0% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Hold Steady in SeptemberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.3 percent to 105.0 in September from 104.7 in August, and is now 1.0 percent higher than September 2013 (104.0). Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in August, Up 4.9% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only...Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

From CNBC: U.S. gasoline cheapest in nearly four years -Lundberg surveyThe average price of U.S. retail gasoline dropped 18 cents in the past two weeks to the lowest level in nearly four years, driven by a steep drop in oil prices, according...Show More Summary

FOMC: End of QE3, Shorter Statement

Earlier I posted FOMC statement previews from Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch economists. Here is what I expect on Wednesday:• The FOMC will announce the end of QE3.• The FOMC statement will be shorter. Here is the September statement (895 words). Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of October 26th

The key report this week is Q3 GDP on Thursday.There will be an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 on Wednesday. ----- Monday, October 27th ----- 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for September. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 423 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 24, 2014. Changes and comments from surferdude808: It was the fourth time in 2014 for the FDIC to close a bank on back-to-back weeks. Show More Summary

Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview

Excerpts from a research piece by economist Kris Dawsey at Goldman Sachs: US data have generally been solid since the last FOMC meeting, with a few exceptions. However, concern about downside risks to global growth increased—echoed by Fed communications—while financial market volatility rose considerably. Show More Summary

Merrill Lynch: FOMC Preview

From Merrill Lynch: The October FOMC meeting is likely to see the end of QE3 buying, as the Fed tapers the final $15bn in asset purchases.... Tapering has been largely contingent on an improving labor market, and that has generally continued. Show More Summary

Bank Failure #16 in 2014: National Republic Bank of Chicago

From the FDIC: State Bank of Texas, Dallas, Texas, Assumes All of the Deposits of the National Republic Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IllinoisAs of June 30, 2014, The National Republic Bank of Chicago had approximately $954.4 million in total assets and $915.3 million in total deposits.... Show More Summary

Lawler on New Home Sales: Silly-Looking August Guess Revised Down Sharply in the West – As Expected

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Census “guesstimated” that new SF home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000 in September, up 0.2% from August’s downwardly-revised (by 7.5% to 466,000) pace. Sales estimates for June and July were also revised downward (by 2.4% and 5.4%, respectively). Show More Summary

Comments on September New Home Sales

The new home sales report for September was slightly above expectations at 467 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). With the downward revision to August sales, sales for September were at the the highest sales rate since July 2008.Sales for the previous three months (June, July and August) were revised down. Show More Summary

New Home Sales increased slightly to 467,000 Annual Rate in September

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 467 thousand. August sales were revised down from 504 thousand to 466 thousand, and July sales were revised down from 427 thousand...Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies decreased in September

According to Black Knight's First Look report for September, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in September compared to August, and declined by 12% year-over-year.Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in September and were down 33% over the last year. Show More Summary

Cost of Living Adjustment: 1.7%, Contribution Base for 2015: $118,500

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2015.Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). HereShow More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases in September, "Robust Construction Conditions Ahead"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Shows Robust Conditions Ahead for Construction IndustryWith all geographic regions and buildingShow More Summary

BLS: CPI increases 0.1% in September, Core CPI 0.1%, Cost-Of-Living Adjustment 1.7%

From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index...Show More Summary

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index

Here is a forecast for 2015 from the MBA: MBA Sees Originations Increasing Seven Percent in 2015The Mortgage Bankers Association announced today that it expects to see $1.19 trillion in mortgage originations during 2015, a seven percent increase from 2014. Show More Summary

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