Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8607
Posts / Week:22.1
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 23% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 3.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 23, 2015. Show More Summary

Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys Weak Again in October

Earlier from the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Remained Soft; Volume of New Orders Leveled Off Overall, manufacturing conditions remained soft in October. The composite index for manufacturing flattened to a reading of ?1, following last month's reading of ?5. Show More Summary

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in AugustThe year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now at between 4% and 5%.. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). Show More Summary

HVS: Q3 2015 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2015. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in August

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities)...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods

From Nick Timiraos And Siobhan Hughes at the WSJ: White House and Boehner Close In on Budget DealThe White House and Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) Monday were nearing a deal on a two-year budget plan that would also increase the federal...Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecast for October: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again

The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Tuesday, November 3rd. Sales in September were at 18.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in October will be over 17 million SAAR again....Show More Summary

Comments on September New Home Sales

The new home sales report for September was well expectations and sales for July and August were revised down. Sales were up only 2.0% year-over-year in September (SA). Overall this was a disappointing report.Earlier: New Home SalesShow More Summary

New Home Sales decreased to 468,000 Annual Rate in September

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 468 thousand. The previous three months were revised down by a total of 39 thousand (SAAR)."Sales of new single-family houses in...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.3% in August, Up 5.5% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.From Black Knight: U.S. Show More Summary

Monday: New Home Sales

Most economist think there is a better than 50% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Analysts and traders don't think so. From Min Zeng at the WSJ: Betting Against a Fed Rate Rise[Global] developments, together with mixed U.S. economic...Show More Summary

Goldman: FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle We do not expect significant changes in the October FOMC statement. The statement is likely to acknowledge slower payroll gains while still describing growth...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of October 25th

The key reports this week are September New Home sales on Monday, the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Thursday, and August Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, but no change in policy is expected. Show More Summary

Merrill on Q3 GDP and Headwinds

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released Thursday October 29th. Here is Merrill Lynch's forecast: The economy has faced some strong headwinds this year, including a sharp rise in the dollar, weaker-than-expected global growth and sharp cuts in oil sector investment. Show More Summary

Off topic: Hurricane Patricia

Hurricane Patricia is about to make landfall in Mexico as a category 5 storm. According to the National Hurricane Center: There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane. Show More Summary

A Few Random Comments on September Existing Home Sales

Once again, housing economist Tom Lawler's projection of the NAR reported sales rate was much closer than the consensus. For September, the NAR reported sales of 5.55 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, the consensus was 5.35 million, and Lawler's projection was 5.56 million (almost exact). Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in September

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 70. Show More Summary

Black Knight's First Look at September Mortgage Data

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services' First Look at September Mortgage Data: Delinquency Rate Rises for Second Consecutive Month, Now 4.9 PercentAccording to Black Knight's First Look report for September, the percent of...Show More Summary

Apartments: Q&A with NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky

Following the release today of the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) quarterly apartment survey, I had an email exchange with NMHC chief economist Dr. Mark Obrinsky. I've known Mark for several years, and he has helped me understand the apartment market (and other economic topics). Show More Summary

NMHC: Apartment Market Conditions Slightly Tighter in October Survey

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): NMHC Quarterly Survey of Apartment Conditions October 2015The Market Tightness Index decreased by 8 points from last quarter (and increased by 1 point from a year earlier) to 53. Thirty-one...Show More Summary

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