Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:14258
Posts / Week:40.1
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

An excellent piece about the Fed from Tim Duy: Game OnBottom Line: The Fed's confidence in the US economy is driving them closer to policy normalization. The labor market improvements are key - as long as unemployment is falling, confidence in the inflation outlook is rising. Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index shows solid Expansion in January

Note: In a related story, the WSJ reported yesterday Wages Rise at Restaurants as Labor Market TightensRestaurant wages zoomed up to an annualized pace of more than 3% in the second half of last year from below a 1.5% pace in the first half of 2013, according to the Labor Department.... Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of March 1, 2015

The key report this week is the February employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the January Personal Income and Outlays report on Monday, February ISM manufacturing index also on Monday, February vehicle sales on Tuesday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the January Trade Deficit on Friday. Show More Summary

February 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 357 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for February, 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Very busy week for the Unofficial Problem Bank List as the FDIC closed a bank and provided an update on its enforcement actions through January 2015. Show More Summary

Bank Failure #4 in 2015: Doral Bank, San Juan, Puerto Rico

From the FDIC: Banco Popular De Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico, Assumes all of the Deposits of Doral Bank, San Juan, Puerto RicoAs of December 31, 2014, Doral Bank had approximately $5.9 billion in total assets and $4.1 billion in total deposits.... Show More Summary

Lawler on Pending Home Sales: NAR “Fixes’ Bad Data for West Region

From housing economist Tom Lawler:The National Association of Realtors reported that its Pending Home Sales Index, designed to gauge contract-signing activity on MLS-based existing home sales, increased by 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December to 104.2 in January. Show More Summary

Fed's Fischer: "Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet"

A review of policy normalization by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet (excerpt)Turning to policy normalization, the FOMC and market participants anticipate that the federal funds rate will be raised sometime this year. Show More Summary

Catching Up: Final February Consumer Sentiment at 95.4, Chicago PMI declines Sharply

Click on graph for larger image. The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February was at 95.4, up from the preliminary reading of 93.6, and down from 98.1 in January.This was above the consensus forecast of 94.0. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.7% in January, up 8.4% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rise in January to Highest Level in 18 MonthsThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, climbed 1.7 percent to 104.2 in January from an upwardly revised 102.5 in December and is now 8.4 percent above January 2014 (96.1). Show More Summary

Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.2% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate...Show More Summary

Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales

The following important older post on inflation from Professor Krugman explains why I follow various measures of underlying inflation: Core Logic[T]he idea of core inflation. Why do we need such a concept, and how should it be measured?So:...Show More Summary

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in January

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in January to 1.86%, down from 1.88% in December. Freddie's rate is down from 2.34% in January 2014, and the rate in January was the lowest level since December 2008. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best February since 2002

The automakers will report February vehicle sales on Tuesday, March 3rd. Sales in January were at 16.6 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in February will be about the same, and will probably be the best February since 2002.Note: There were 24 selling days in February, the same as last year. Show More Summary

Key Measures Show Low Inflation in January

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.3% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity Expanded "Slightly" in February, Weaker Energy Sector

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Rose Just Slightly The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 313,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending February 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 283,000 to 282,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods

First, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Jumped 1.2% in January American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.2% in January, following a revised gain of 0.1% during the previous month. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decrease in Q4, Lowest since 2007

Earlier from the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Decrease in Fourth Quarter The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.68 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014. Show More Summary

Comments on New Home Sales

Earlier: New Home Sales at 481,000 Annual Rate in January, Highest January since 2008Here is an updated table of new home sales since 2000 and the change from the previous year, including the revisions for the last few months. Sales in 2014 were only up 1.9% from 2013. Show More Summary

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Declined in January

According to Black Knight's First Look report for January, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 1% in January compared to December, and declined 11% year-over-year.The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined slightly in January and were down about 31% over the last year.Black Knight reported the U.S. Show More Summary

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