Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:9505
Posts / Week:22.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Sunday Night Futures

From Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn: After the Brexit Shock Following the UK referendum, we have downgraded our global growth forecast, sharply in the UK and more modestly elsewhere. Increased uncertainty and...Show More Summary

Largest 5-year Population Cohorts are now "20 to 24" and "25 to 29"

Two years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group. The Census Bureau has just released the population estimates for 2015, and I've updated the table from the previous post (replacing...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of June 26, 2016

The key economic reports this week are the third estimate of Q1 GDP, May personal income and outlays, June vehicle sales, the June ISM manufacturing, and Case-Shiller House prices. ----- Monday, June 27th ----- 10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. Show More Summary

June 2016: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 203 Institutions, Q2 2016 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2016. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2016. During the month, the list fell from 206 institutions to 203 after four removals and one addition. Show More Summary

Mortgage Rates Near Record Lows

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Single Best Day For Mortgage Rates in More Than a YearFrom yesterday's most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote of 3.625%, we're now easily down to 3.5% for most lenders. A few of the most aggressive lenders are already down to 3.375% on top tier scenarios. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 38 states in May

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in eight, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 60. Show More Summary

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Sales to be Over 17 Million SAAR again in June

The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Friday, July 1st.Note: There were 26 selling days in June, up from 25 in June 2015.From WardsAuto: Forecast: June Sales to Reach 11-Year High A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers...Show More Summary

Consumer Sentiment at 93.5 in June

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June was at 93.5, down from the preliminary reading of 94.3, and down from 94.7 in May: "Consumers were a bit less optimistic in late June due to rising concerns about prospects for the national economy. Show More Summary

Federal Reserve on Brexit

From the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union. Show More Summary

Friday: Brexit Result, Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment

To track the Brexit vote, here is a great spreadsheet updated frequently from @britainelectsFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for June). Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Tracking just behind Record Year

On occupancy from STR: US hotel results for week ending 18 JuneThe U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 12-18 June 2016, according to data from STR.In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy was nearly flat (-0.1% to 74.6%). Show More Summary

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in May

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in May.On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. Show More Summary

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Increased Slightly" in June

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Increased SlightlyThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the June Manufacturing Survey today. According to Megan Williams, survey manager and associate economist...Show More Summary

New Home Sales decreased to 551,000 Annual Rate in May

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 551 thousand. The previous three months were revised down by a total of 55 thousand (SAAR)."Sales of new single-family houses in May 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 551,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 259,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending June 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. The 4-week moving average was 267,000, a decrease...Show More Summary

Thursday: New Home Sales

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, down from 277 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. Show More Summary

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased "Sharply" in May

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Healthy demand for all building types signaled in Architecture Billings IndexLed by a still active multi-family housingShow More Summary

A Few Comments on May Existing Home Sales

Earlier: Existing Home Sales increased in May to 5.53 million SAARAs usual, housing economist Tom Lawler nailed the NAR report. I project that May existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million in MayFor existing homes, inventory is still key. Show More Summary

Black Knight's First Look at May Mortgage Data; Foreclosure Inventory down 29% YoY

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at May 2016• Foreclosure inventory now below 575,000 from over 800,000 just 12 months ago• Foreclosure starts up from 10-year low in April, but at 62,100 remain below pre-crisis...Show More Summary

Existing Home Sales increased in May to 5.53 million SAAR

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Grow 1.8 Percent in May; Highest Pace in Over Nine YearsTotal existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, grew 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million in May from a downwardly revised 5.43 million in April. Show More Summary

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