Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11573
Posts / Week:22.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increases in Q4 mostly due to Hurricanes

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Up in 4th Quarter; Hurricanes Drive Up 60-Day and 90-Day DelinquenciesThe delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.17 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 221,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending February 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 234,500. Show More Summary

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Falls" in January

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data Analytics: The Dodge Momentum Index Falls as Year BeginsThe Dodge Momentum Index dropped 5.1% in January to 143.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 151.5. Show More Summary

Employment: January Diffusion Indexes

I haven't posted this in a few months.The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 57.9 in January, down from 65.5 in December.For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 53.9, down from 60.5 in December.Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. Show More Summary

Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Up 5% YoY, Inventory down 35%

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada...Show More Summary

"Mortgage Rates Head Back Toward Recent Highs"

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Head Back Toward Recent HighsMortgage rates were mixed today, with most lenders offering slightly better terms this morning compared to yesterday's mid-day levels. Things took a turn for the worse in the afternoon as the stock market recovery pulled money back out of bonds. Show More Summary

Prime Working-Age Population At New Peak, First Time Since 2007

Update through January: The U.S. prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of January 2018, according to the BLS, for the first time since 2007, there are now more people in the 25 to 54 age group...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.6% Year-over-year in December

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports December Home Prices Up More Than 6 Percent Year-Over-Year for Fifth Consecutive MonthCoreLogic®... Show More Summary

Trade Deficit at $53.1 Billion in December

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $53.1 billion in December, up $2.7 billion from $50.4 billion in November, revised. Show More Summary

Tuesday: Trade Deficit, Job Openings

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Catch a Break After Stock Market RoutMortgage rates caught a break today, moving back near last Thursday's levels as bonds (which underlie rates) benefited from today's extreme...Show More Summary

Market Update

Click on graph for larger image. By request - following the market sell off today - here is a stock market graph. This graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).The dashed line is the closing price today. The market is off 0.9% year-to-date.Not very scary - at least not yet.

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Sharply Year-over-year, At Record Prices

Here is another update on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs - and now prices are above the bubble highs.This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through early February 2018 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. Show More Summary

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.9% in January

The January ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 59.9%, up from 56.0% in December. The employment index increased in January to 61.6%, from 56.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for SupplyShow More Summary

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: '“Hurricane Effect” Aside, Mortgage Performance Continued to Improve in 2017'

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for December today. According to Black Knight, 4.71% of mortgages were delinquent in December, up from 4.42% in December 2016. The increase was primarily due to the hurricanes. Black...Show More Summary

U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Decline Slightly in 2017, Lowest since 2006

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Fall 0.7% – Smallest 12-Month Decline Since 2010 Bankruptcy filings in the 12-month period ending December 31, 2017, fell just 0.7 percent, compared with bankruptcy cases filed in calendar year 2016. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Feb 4, 2018

This will be a light week for economic data.The key reports this week are the trade deficit and job openings. ----- Monday, Feb 5th ----- 10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for index to increase to 56.2 from 55.9 in December. Show More Summary

Oil Rigs "Some signs of life outside the Permian"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Feb 2, 2018:• Total US oil rigs were up, +6 to 765 • Horizontal oil rigs were similarly up, +6 to 668...• The Permian took a breather this week, with no horizontal...Show More Summary

Comments on January Employment Report

The headline jobs number was above consensus expectations at 200 thousand, however the previously two months were revised down a combined 24 thousand. Overall this was a strong report, with a nice pickup in wage growth.Earlier: January...Show More Summary

January Employment Report: 200,000 Jobs Added, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.... Show More Summary

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and Wages

My January Employment PreviewGoldman: January Payrolls PreviewFriday:• At 8:30 AM, Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 176,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January, up from the 148,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December. Show More Summary

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