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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:13451
Posts / Week:41.1
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in July

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in July.Comments from CR: Tom Lawler has been sending me this table every month for several years. I think it is very useful for looking at the trend for distressed sales and cash buyers in these areas. Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on reports released so far by local realtor associations/boards/MLS, I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual...Show More Summary

Preliminary August Consumer Sentiment decreases to 79.2

Click on graph for larger image. The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August was at 79.2, down from 81.8 in July. This was the lowest reading since last November and below the consensus forecast of 82.3. Show More Summary

Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.4% in July

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in July for its sixth consecutive monthly gain. Manufacturing output advanced 1.0 percent in July, its largest increase since February. Show More Summary

NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "business conditions continued to improve" in August

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyThe August 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions continued to improve for New York manufacturers, but the improvement was less wide-spread than in the previous month. Show More Summary

Friday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey, PPI, Consumer Sentiment

First from the WSJ: New Rules Near on Credit-Ratings FirmsThe rules, expected to be somewhat tougher than those proposed more than three years ago, will take additional steps to ensure that the firms' interest in winning business doesn't...Show More Summary

Repeat: U.S. Population by Age and Distribution, 1900 through 2060

Repeat: Here are graphs of the U.S population by age and distribution, from 1900 through 2060. The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau (actual through 2010 and projections through 2060). There are many interesting...Show More Summary

DataQuick on California Bay Area: July Home Sales down 9% Year-over-year, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying declines

From DataQuick: Sluggish Bay Area Home Sales in July; Prices Up – at a Slower PaceA total of 8,474 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 7.1 percent from 7,915 in June and down 9.3Show More Summary

NY Fed: Household Debt decreased Slightly in Q2 2014, Delinquency Rates Lowest Since Q3 2007

Here is the Q2 report: Household Debt and Credit Report. From the NY Fed:Aggregate consumer debt was roughly flat in the 2nd quarter of 2014, showing a minor decrease of $18 billion. As of June 30, 2014, total consumer indebtedness was $11.63 trillion, down by 0.2% from its level in the first quarter of 2014. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 311,000

The DOL reports:In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 289,000 to 290,000. Show More Summary

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, NY Fed Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 295 thousand from 289 thousand.• At 11:00 AM, the Q2 2014 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and CreditShow More Summary

DataQuick on SoCal: July Home Sales down 12% Year-over-year, Distressed Sales and Investor Buying Declines Further

From DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Fall Yr/Yr Again; Prices Rise at Slower PaceSouthern California home sales fell to a three-year low for the month of July as supply continued to fall short of demand, some buyers struggled with higher prices, and investor activity fell. Show More Summary

Flashback to August 2011 and 2013 (And a hint for 2015)

Here are two posts from August in 2011 and 2013.First, from August 14, 2011: Event Driven Declines in Consumer Sentiment.Consumer sentiment had plunged to the lowest level in 30 years. This (and other data) led many analysts to predict the US was headed into a recession. Show More Summary

Retail Sales unchanged in July

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.7% from July 2013. Sales in June were unrevised at a 0.2%. From the Census Bureau report:The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Retail Sales

A must read piece from Tim Duy: Heading Into Jackson HoleBottom Line: Anything other than a dovish message coming from the Jackson Hole conference will be a surprise. Tight labor markets alone will not justify an aggressive pace of tightening. Show More Summary

EIA Forecast: Gasoline Prices expected to decline to $3.30 per gallon in December

It is difficult to forecast oil and gasoline prices due to world events, but currently the EIA expects gasoline prices to decline further this year according to the Short Term Energy Outlook released today: • The market's perceptionShow More Summary

Treasury: Budget Deficit declined in July 2014 compared to July 2013

The Treasury released the July Monthly Treasury Statement today. The Treasury reported a $94 billion deficit in July 2014, down from $97 billion in July 2013. For fiscal year 2014 through July, the deficit was $460 billion compared to...Show More Summary

BLS: Jobs Openings increased to 4.7 million in June, Highest since 2001

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary There were 4.7 million job openings on the last business day of June, little changed from 4.6 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.......Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Show More Summary

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in July

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Ticks Up SlightlyJuly’s Optimism Index technically rose 0.7 points to a reading of 95.7....Labor Markets. NFIB owners increased employment by an average...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Job Openings

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a key monthly report used by the Federal Reserve. The June survey results will be released tomorrow.The Atlanta Fed has a great graphic on the labor market that uses three parameters...Show More Summary

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