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Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:14016
Posts / Week:40.4
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

WTI Crude Oil Falls Close to $50 per Barrel

From Business Insider: Oil Keeps FallingUS crude and Brent futures dropped to fresh 5-1/2-year lows Monday as worries about a surplus of global supplies amid weak demand continued to drag on oil markets.At 4.20pm GMT (11.20 am ET), West...Show More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 16.7%

Reis released their Q4 2014 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined in Q4 to 16.7% from 16.8% in Q3 2014. This is down from 16.9% in Q4 2013, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From Bloomberg: U.S. Show More Summary

Monday: Vehicle Sales

Starting in 2009, there were always a large number of analysts predicting the Fed would raise rates very soon (not me) - until Bernanke and the FOMC stopped that speculation when they included the following phrase in the August 2011Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of January 4, 2015

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.Other key reports include December vehicle sales on Monday, the December ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday, and the November Trade Deficit on Wednesday.Also, Reis will release their quarterly surveys of rents and vacancy rates for offices, apartments and malls. Show More Summary

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 400 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 2, 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: This past Monday, the FDIC released an update on its enforcement action activities through November 2014. Show More Summary

Rosenberg and the "Lunatic Fringe"

A funny quote today from Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg via CNBC: Rosenberg: Perma-bears on the 'lunatic fringe'"There are segments of the perma-bear community that literally live their lives on the lunatic fringe," Rosenberg wrote... Show More Summary

Hotels: Strong Finish to 2014, Best Year since 2000

From STR: US results for week ending 27 DecemberThe U.S. hotel industry recorded mostly positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 21-27 December 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy was flat at 44.4 percent. Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 0.3% in November

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in November:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during November 2014 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $975.0 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised October estimate of $977.7 billion. Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index declined to 55.5 in December

The ISM manufacturing index suggests slower expansion in December than in November. The PMI was at 55.5% in December, down from 58.7% in November. The employment index was at 56.8%, up from 54.9% in November, and the new orders index...Show More Summary

Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Housing Market Enters 2015 Facing Affordability PressuresSome of the price declines were exacerbated by a glut of foreclosures. The subsequent rebound reflected increased investor demand for those bargain-priced...Show More Summary

Restaurant Performance Index shows Expansion in November

Happy New Year! I did my part last night to help the restaurant index for December :-)Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Remains in Positive TerritoryBuoyed by positive...Show More Summary

Question #1 for 2015: How much will the economy grow in 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'm adding some thoughts, and a few predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.1) Economic growth: Heading into 2015, most analysts are pretty sanguine. Show More Summary

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in November, Lowest since October 2008

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in November to 1.91% from 1.92% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.44% in November 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008. Show More Summary

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.8% in November, up 4.1% year-over-year

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Show Modest Gain in NovemberThe Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 0.8 percent to 104.8 in November from a slightly downwardly revised 104.0 in...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 298,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending December 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 280,000 to 281,000. Show More Summary

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in November

Wednesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 286 thousand from 280 thousand.• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The...Show More Summary

Question #3 for 2015: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 5.8% in November, down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year. Show More Summary

Question #4 for 2015: Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.4) Inflation: The inflation rate is still running well below the Fed's 2% target. Show More Summary

House Prices: Better Seasonal Adjustment; Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in October

This morning, S&P reported that the National index increased 0.7% in October seasonally adjusted. However, it appears the seasonal adjustment has been distorted by the high level of distressed sales in recent years. Trulia's Jed Kolko...Show More Summary

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.6% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities...Show More Summary

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