Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:11271
Posts / Week:22.7
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Increases, Delinquency Rates of Several Debt Types Continue Rising"

From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Increases, Delinquency Rates of Several Debt Types Continue RisingThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit,...Show More Summary

Wednesday: Retail Sales, NY Fed Mfg Survey

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in retail sales.• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic: Imports increased YoY, Exports decreased YoY in October

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs...Show More Summary

A few random thoughts on Taxes

A few random thoughts...Income and corporate taxes are just part of the tax system. Americans pay a wide variety of taxes. These include sales, property, payroll, state and Federal income and corporate taxes, and more. Many of these taxes are regressive, meaning that lower income families pay a higher percentage of their income for these taxes. Show More Summary

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "inches up" in October

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Index inches up in October in OctoberThe October Index rose to 103.8, up from 103 the previous month. The historically strong performance extends the...Show More Summary

"Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher"

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly HigherMortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, keeping them in line with their highest levels in more than 2 weeks, depending on the lender [30YR FIXED - 4.0%]. Show More Summary

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Year-over-year in October

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2017 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Nov 12, 2017Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 4, and DOW futures are up 44 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $56.88 per barrel and Brent at $64.65 per barrel. Show More Summary

Port of Long Beach: Another Record Month in October

From the Port of Long Beach: Port Sets Record for October Cargo, Long Beach on pace for highest-ever volumes in 2017A year of records continues at the Port of Long Beach, where this October was the busiest in history, as container volumes...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Nov 12, 2017

The key economic reports this week are October housing starts, retail sales and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).For manufacturing, October industrial production, and the November New York Fed, Philly Fed and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. Show More Summary

Employment: October Diffusion Indexes

I haven't posted this in some time. Here is some more positive news in the employment report.The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 59.6 in October, down from 61.1 in September.For manufacturing, the diffusion index...Show More Summary

Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment declines to 97.8

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November was at 97.8, down from 100.7 in October.Consumer sentiment declined slightly in early November due to widespread losses across current and expected economic conditions. Show More Summary

Prime Working-Age Population nears 2007 Peak

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of October 2017, according to the BLS, there were still fewer people in the 25 to 54 age group than in 2007.At the beginning of this year - based on demographics - it looked like the prime working age (25 to 54) would probably hit a new peak in 2017. Show More Summary

Oil Rigs "A Sharp Rebound in the Rig Count"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Nov 10, 2017:• Rigs counts rebounded sharply this week, essentially reversing last week’s losses• Total US oil rigs were up +9 to 738• Horizontal oil rigs rose, +11...Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy Rate decreases YoY

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 4 NovemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 29 October through 4 November 2017, according...Show More Summary

Is the stock market a bubble?

Over a week ago I posted five economic questions I'm frequently asked. Last week I discussed: Are house prices in a new bubble? and Is a recession imminent (within the next 12 months)? Here are a few thoughts on "Is the stock marketShow More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 239,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 232,500. Show More Summary

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Recovers" in October

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Recovers in OctoberThe Dodge Momentum Index rose in October, climbing 13.2% to 130.9 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 115.6. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications "Flat" in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Flat in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications remained unchanged from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 3, 2017.... Show More Summary

The Future is still Bright!

I wrote this one year ago in November 2016. Not much has changed (no major policies have been enacted), and the economy remains on cruise control. In January 2013 I wrote The Future's so Bright.... In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic. Show More Summary

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