Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10959
Posts / Week:22.6
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

NY Fed: "Household Borrowing Grows Modestly; Credit Card Delinquencies Rise"

From the NY Fed: Household Borrowing Grows Modestly; Credit Card Delinquencies RiseThe CMD’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit reveals that total household debt rose by $114 billion (0.9 percent) to $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017. Show More Summary

FOMC Minutes: Balance Sheet Normalization "Relatively soon"

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2017. Excerpts: Participants also discussed the appropriate time to implement the plan for reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings that was announced in June in the Committee's postmeeting statement and its Addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. Show More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Slightly Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 11, 2017.... Show More Summary

Comments on July Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.155 Million Annual Rate in JulyThe housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down 4.8% in July compared to June, and were down 5.6% year-over-year compared to July 2016. This...Show More Summary

Housing Starts decreased to 1.155 Million Annual Rate in July

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000. This is 4.8 percent below the revised June estimate of 1,213,000 and is 5.6 percent below the July 2016 rate of 1,223,000. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes

Two notes from Tim Duy at Fed Watch. First a few excerpts from: Retail Sales, Dudley, Wages[Duy write] 5.) But - and I think this is important - financial conditions continue to easy despite rate hikes: [Dudley said] Now the reason why...Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 68 in August

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 68 in August, up from 64 in July. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder...Show More Summary

Earlier for the NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity "grew strongly" in August

Earlier from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing SurveyBusiness activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fifteen points to 25.2, its highest level in nearly three years. Show More Summary

Retail Sales increased 0.6% in July

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6 percent from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from July 2016.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Up Slightly From Long-Term LowsMortgage rates rose moderately today as weekend news headlines suggested some measure of de-escalation of nuclear tensions between the US and North Korea. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic increased in July

From the Port of Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Sees Busiest Month EverSurging cargo volume in July set a record for the best month in the Port of Long Beach’s 106-year history, surpassing the previous high mark set in August 2015 for...Show More Summary

Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 9% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):1) Overall sales in July were up 3.0% year-over-year. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Aug 13, 2017• The Housing Bottom and Comparing Housing RecoveriesMonday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 futures are up 7, and DOW futures...Show More Summary

The Housing Bottom and Comparing Housing Recoveries

In early 2012 I wrote The Housing Bottom is Here and Housing: The Two Bottoms, I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Aug 13, 2017

The key economic reports this week are July retail sales and Housing Starts.For manufacturing, July industrial production, and the August New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. ----- Monday, Aug 14th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. Show More Summary

Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in July

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (1.8% annualized rate) during the month. Show More Summary

Early Look at 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

The BLS reported this morning:The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 238.617 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.1...Show More Summary

BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in July, Core CPI increased 0.1%

From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.7 percent.... Show More Summary

Friday: CPI

From Professor Krugman: How Bad Will It Be If We Hit The Debt Ceiling? [I]t looks fairly likely that by October or so there will come a day when the U.S. government stops paying some of its bills, including interest on debt.How bad will...Show More Summary

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down Year-over-Year

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 5 AugustThe U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 30 July through 5 August 2017, according...Show More Summary

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