Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10128
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, NY and Philly Mfg Surveys

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, down from 258 thousand the previous week.• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. Show More Summary

Quick FOMC Analysis

The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate 25bp to a range of "1/2 to 3/4 percent".On the assessment of appropriate monetary policy, one FOMC member sees just one 25bp rate hike in 2017, four members see two hikes, six members see three hikes, and five see four or more. Show More Summary

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

Statement here. 25 bps rate hike.Yellen press conference video here.On the projections, GDP was mostly unchanged. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents Change inReal GDP 1 2016 2017 2018 2019 Dec 2016...Show More Summary

FOMC Statement: 25bps Rate Hike

FOMC Statement: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year....Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in November: Sales up 19%, Active Inventory down 4.8% YoY

Important note: In November 2015, sales were impacted by a regulation change, TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID), so the strong year-over-year increase in many markets last month is because of the weak sales last November.During...Show More Summary

Industrial Production declined 0.4% in November

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent in October. In November, manufacturing output moved down 0.1 percent, and mining posted a gain of 1.1 percent. Show More Summary

Retail Sales increased 0.1% in November

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1 percent from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8 percent from November 2015.From the Census Bureau report:The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. Show More Summary

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady-to-Lower Ahead of Fed DayMortgage rates started stronger out of the gate, but morning weakness in bond markets prompted many lenders to adjust rates higher by early afternoon. Show More Summary

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3

Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released today) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. Show More Summary

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in November

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Soars Post ElectionThe full November index, calculated as it is every month, improved 3.5 points to 98.4, which is just above the 42-year average and...Show More Summary

Duy: December FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from long post by Tim Duy at Fed Watch: December FOMC PreviewThe Federal Reserve will nudge rates 25bp higher this week. This will not end the policy tension among FOMC members. How will that unfold in 2017? My expectation is that whereas 2016 began with excessively high expectations for rate hikes, 2017 will be the opposite. Show More Summary

Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again, Near Previous Peak

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of November 2016, there are still fewer people in the 25 to 54 age group than in 2007.However the prime working age (25 to 54) will probably hit a new...Show More Summary

Hotels: Close to Record Year for Occupancy

From STR: US hotel results for week ending 3 DecemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 27 November through 3 December 2016, according to data from STR.In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy fell 1.5% to 56.0%. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures: Oil Prices up Sharply

From Bloomberg: Oil Surges as Saudis Eye Deeper Cuts While Non-OPEC Joins DealOil jumped to the highest since July 2015 after Saudi Arabia signaled it’s ready to cut output more than earlier agreed while non-OPEC countries includingShow More Summary

Review of FOMC Projections

The consensus is that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds Rate 25 bps following the FOMC meeting this coming week.Since the rate hike is expected (and assuming it happens), the focus this month will be on hints about the next move from the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's press conference. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Dec 11, 2016

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).For manufacturing, October industrial production, and the November New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to raise rates at this meeting. Show More Summary

Merrill: FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from another FOMC preview, this once from Merrill Lynch: It is the day we have all been waiting for – the FOMC is very likely to hike 25bp to a range of 50 – 75bp at the December 14th meeting. This is the second hike in the cycle, following the move last December. Show More Summary

Goldman: FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius: Markets have reacted strongly to the presidential election, and fiscal easing may eventually warrant a quicker pace of rate hikes by the FOMC. Show More Summary

Nomura: FOMC Preview

Note: The FOMC meets next week, and almost every expects a rate hike at the December meeting. A few excerpts from a research note from Nomura: In line with market expectations, we expect the FOMC will raise the federal funds rate target to 0.50-0.75% at the conclusion of the 13-14 December meeting. Show More Summary

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q3

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2016 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q3 compared to Q2:The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $90.2 trillion during the third quarter of 2016. Show More Summary

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