Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:10243
Posts / Week:22.5
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Then and Now

A few indicators comparing eight years ago and today... Jan-09 Dec-12 Vehicle Sales 1 9.6 18.3 Monthly Employment change 2 -791 156 Unemployment Rate 3 7.8% 4.7% Housing Starts 4 490 1,126 New Home Sales 5 336 592 Mortgage Delinquency...Show More Summary

Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I: The CPS/ASEC Data

From housing economist Tom Lawler: The Household Conundrum, Part I: The CPS/ASEC DataA major challenge facing housing analysts is the lack of any timely and accurate time series of the characteristics of the housing market, including both the number of and the characteristics of occupied or vacant housing units. Show More Summary

Yellen: The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary PolicyIn my remarks today, I will review the considerable progress the economy has made toward the attainment of the two objectives that the Congress has assigned to the Federal Reserve--maximum employment and price stability. Show More Summary

Comments on December Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.226 Million Annual Rate in DecemberThe housing starts report this morning was above consensus because of the sharp increase in multi-family starts. Multi-family is frequently volatile month-to-month, and has seen especially wild swings over the last four months.Meanwhile single family starts were decent. Show More Summary

Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Improve in January

Earlier from the Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Improve in JanuaryEconomic conditions continued to improve in January, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes...Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 234,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 247,000 to 249,000. Show More Summary

Housing Starts increased to 1.226 Million Annual Rate in December

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,226,000. This is 11.3 percent above the revised November rate of 1,102,000...Show More Summary

Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey, Dr. Yellen

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, up from 247 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for December. The consensus...Show More Summary

Fed's Beige Book: Modest expansion, Tight labor markets

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before January 9, 2017."Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy continued to expand at a modest pace across most regions from late November through the end of the year. Show More Summary

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in DecemberBased on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through this morning, I project that existing home sales as estimated...Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 67 in January

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 67 in January, down from 69 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From CNBC:...Show More Summary

Industrial Production increased 0.8% in December

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in December after falling 0.7 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.6 percent at an annual rate. Show More Summary

Wednesday: CPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book, Yellen Speech

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back Near 2-Month LowsMortgage rates moved lower today, generally recovering the losses seen last Friday. This brings many lenders back in line with the lowest levels since November 17th, although last Wednesday (Jan 11) was slightly better on average. Show More Summary

LA area Port Traffic increases Year-over-year in December

From the Port of Long Beach: Port Trade Dips to 6.8 Million TEUs in 2016Slowed by industry headwinds and challenges that included a major customer declaring bankruptcy, the Port of Long Beach still moved almost 6.8 million containers...Show More Summary

NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand in New York Region

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity grew in January. The general business conditions index was little changed at 6.5, its third consecutive positive reading. Show More Summary

Monday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Jan 15, 2017Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET,The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 8.0, down from 9.0.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are down 3, and DOW futures are down 28 (fair value). Show More Summary

Bank Failures by Year

In 2016, five FDIC insured banks failed. This was the lowest level since 2007.Most of the great recession / housing bust / financial crisis related failures are behind us.The first graph shows the number of bank failures per year since the FDIC was founded in 1933. Show More Summary

Krugman: "Infrastructure Delusions"

From Professor Krugman: Infrastructure DelusionsBen Bernanke has a longish post about fiscal policy... Notably, Bernanke, like yours truly, argues that the fiscal-stimulus case for deficit spending has gotten much weaker, but there’s...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of Jan 15th

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).For manufacturing, December industrial production, and the January New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.Speeches by Fed Chair Janet Yellen are scheduled on Wednesday and Thursday. Show More Summary

Sacramento Housing in December: Sales down 2%, Active Inventory down 17% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes...Show More Summary

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