Blog Profile / CalculatedRisk


URL :http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Economics
Posts on Regator:8876
Posts / Week:22.2
Archived Since:June 7, 2008

Blog Post Archive

ADP: Private Employment increased 257,000 in December

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 257,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change inShow More Summary

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Purchase Applications up 22% YoY

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 27 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 1, 2016. Show More Summary

Wednesday: Trade Deficit, ADP Employment, FOMC Minutes, ISM Non-Mfg Index

It never rains in California, oh wait... from the LA Times: El Niño storms slam Southern CaliforniaThe first major El Niño storm of the season brought heavy rainfall that closed roads, caused flooding and gave Southern California a good...Show More Summary

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 17.2 million annual rate in December

Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 17.2 million SAAR in December.That is up about 2% from December 2014, and down about 5% from the 18.06 million annual sales rate last month.This is probably a recordShow More Summary

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate declined in Q4 to 16.3%

Reis released their Q4 2015 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate declined to 16.3% in Q4, from 16.5% in Q3. This is down from 16.7% in Q4 2014, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.From Reis...Show More Summary

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in November

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic...Show More Summary

Tuesday: Auto Sales

Tuesday:• All day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 18.1 million SAAR in December from 18.2 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).A few excerpts from Tim Duy'sShow More Summary

Fed: Q3 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low

The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q3 2015 was released Dec 28th: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive...Show More Summary

Construction Spending decreased 0.4% in November, Up 10.5% YoY

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in November compared to October:The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during November 2015 was estimated...Show More Summary

ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 48.2 in December

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in December. The PMI was at 48.2% in December, down from 48.6% in November. The employment index was at 48.3%, down from 51.3% in November, and the new orders index was at 49.2%, up from...Show More Summary

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.2% in October, Up 5.5% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.From Black Knight: U.S. Show More Summary

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 3, 2016• Question #6 for 2016: Will real wages increase in 2016?• December 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 250 Institutions, Q4 2015 Transition MatrixMonday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December. Show More Summary

Question #6 for 2015: Will real wages increase in 2016?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2016. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2015.6) Real Wage Growth: Last year I was one of the most pessimistic forecasters on wage growth. Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of January 3, 2016

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include December vehicle sales, the December ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the November trade deficit. ----- Monday, January 4th ----- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. Show More Summary

December 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 250 Institutions, Q4 2015 Transition Matrix

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for December 2015. Changes and comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for December 2015. Show More Summary

Hotel Occupancy: 2015 is Best Year on Record

Here is an update on hotel occupancy from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 26 DecemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported negative results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 20-26 December 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy decreased 4.0% to 42.8%. Show More Summary

Goldman Forecast: "Questions for 2016"

Here are a few excerpts from a piece by Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Zach Pandl: "8 Questions for 2016"On GDP Growth: We forecast that growth will improve only slightly from its current pace, averaging 2.25% next year.OnShow More Summary

Question #7 for 2015: What about oil prices in 2016?

Over the weekend, I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2016. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2015.7) Oil Prices:...Show More Summary

Chicago PMI declines to 42.9

Chicago PMI: Dec Chicago Business Barometer Down 5.8 points to 42.9 The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November...There was also ongoing weakness in New Orders, which contracted at a faster pace, to the lowest level since May 2009. Show More Summary

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 287,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 272,500. Show More Summary

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