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Blog Profile / Climate Audit


URL :http://www.climateaudit.org/
Filed Under:Issues & Causes / Climate Change
Posts on Regator:1048
Posts / Week:3.4
Archived Since:December 20, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Anti-SLAPP Hearing Today

Mann v CEI, National Review, Simberg, Steyn and their amici is being argued today. Amici for Steyn, CEI, Simberg and NR include: American Civil Liberties Union, the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, American Society of News Editors, the Association of Alternative Newsmedia, the Association of American Publishers, Inc., Bloomberg L.P., the Center for […]

New Data and Upside-Down Moberg

I’ve been re-examining SH proxies for some time now, both in connection with PAGES2K and out of intrinsic relevance.  In today’s post, I’ll report on a new (relatively) high-resolution series from  the Arabian Sea offshore Pakistan (Boll et al 2014, Late Holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea: implications […]

Data Torture in Gergis2K

Reflecting on then current scandals in psychology arising from non-replicable research,  E. Wagenmakers, a prominent social psychologist,  blamed many of the problems on “data torture”.  Wagenmakers attributed many data torture problems on ex post selection of methods. Show More Summary

PAGES2K and Nature’s Policy against Self-Plagiarism

Nature’s policies on plagiarism state: Duplicate publication, sometimes called self-plagiarism, occurs when an author reuses substantial parts of his or her own published work without providing the appropriate references. The description...Show More Summary

Gergis2K and the Oroko “Disturbance-Corrected” Blade

Only two Gergis proxies (both tree ring) go back to the medieval period: Oroko Swamp, New Zealand and Mt Read, Tasmania, both from Ed Cook.  Although claims of novelty have been made for the Gergis reconstruction, neither of these proxies is “new”, with both illustrated in AR4 and Mt Read being used as early as Mann et […]

Gergis and the PAGES2K Regional Average

The calculation of the PAGES2K regional average contains a very odd procedure that thus far has escaped commentary. The centerpiece of the PAGES2K program was the calculation of regional reconstructions in deg C anomalies. Having done these calculations, most readers would presume that their area weighted average (deg C) would be the weighted average of […]

The Kaufman Tautology

The revised PAGES2K Arctic reconstruction used 56 proxies (down three from the original 59).  Although McKay and Kaufman 2014 didn’t mention the elephant in the room changes in their reconstruction (as discussed at CA here here), they...Show More Summary

Warmest since, uh, the Medieval Warm Period

The money quote in the PAGES2K abstract was that there wasn’t any worldwide Little Ice Age of Medieval Warm Period and that AD1971-2000 temperatures were the highest in nearly 1400 years, long before the Medieval Period: There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little […]

The Third Warmest Arctic Century

PAGES2K (2013) unequivocally stated that the Arctic was “warmest during the 20th century”: The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century, although warmer during 1941–1970 than 1971–2000 according to our reconstruction. McKay and Kaufman 2014 did not withdraw or amend the above statement, instead reporting that the revisions had a “fairly minor impact on […]

Gavin Schmidt and the EPA Denial Decision

About eight weeks ago, Jean S postulated that Gavin Schmidt had been involved in writing the documents supporting EPA’s decision denying various petitions for reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding (the “RTP documents“), documents that Mann had cited to the D.C. Show More Summary

Millennial Quebec Tree Rings

In today’s post, I’m going to discuss an important new 1000-year chronology from northern treeline spruce in Quebec (Gennaretti et al 2014, PNAS here).  The chronology is interesting on multiple counts.  This is the first Quebec northern treeline chronology to include the medieval warm period. Show More Summary

Decomposing Paico

In today’s post, Jean S and I are going to show that the paico reconstruction, as implemented in the present algorithm, is very closely approximated by a weighted average of the proxies, in which the weights are proportional to the number of measurements. We are able to show this because we noticed that the contributions […]

New Article on Igaliku

Shortly after the publication of PAGES2K, I pointed out that the Igaliku lake sediment proxy, had been contaminated by modern agricultural runoff. The post attracted many comments. Nick Stokes vigorously opposed the surmise that the Igaliku series had been contaminated by modern agriculture and/or that such contamination should have been taken into account by Kaufman […]

PAGES2K vs the Hanjiharvi Reconstruction

The PAGES2K (2013) Arctic reconstruction of Kaufman et al has attracted considerable attention as a non-Mannian hockey stick. However, it’s been fraught with problems since day one, including a major re-statement of results in August 2014, in which Kaufman conceded (without direct acknowledgement) Climate Audit criticism that their results had been impacted by the use […]

PAGES2K: More Upside Down?

Does it matter whether proxies are used upside-down or not? Maybe not in Mann-world (where, in response to our criticism at PNAS, Mann claimed that it was impossible for him to use series upside-down).  But, unlike Mann, Darrell Kaufman acknowledges responsibility for using proxies upside-up. Unfortunately, he and the PAGES2K authors don’t seem to be […]

Okshola: which way is up?

The recent revisions to PAGES2K included a dramatic flipping of the Hvitarvatn varve series to the opposite orientation used in the 2013 version used in IPCC AR5. Together with other changes (such as a partial – but still incomplete – removal of contaminated sediments from the Igaliku series), this unwound most of the previous difference […]

Revisions to Pages2K Arctic

Kaufman and the PAGES2K Arctic2K group recently published a series of major corrections to their database, some of which directly respond to Climate Audit criticism. The resulting reconstruction has been substantially revised with substantially increased medieval warmth. Show More Summary

Sliming by Stokes

Stokes’ most recent post, entitled “What Steve McIntyre Won’t Show You Now”, contains a series of lies and fantasies, falsely claiming that I’ve been withholding MM05-EE analyses from readers in my recent fisking of ClimateBaller doctrines, falsely claiming that I’ve “said very little about this recon [MM05-EE] since it was published” and speculating that I’ve […]

ClimateBallers and the MM05 Simulations

ClimateBallers are extremely suspicious of the MM05 simulation methodology, to say the least.  A recurrent contention is that we should have removed the climate “signal” from the NOAMER tree ring network before calculating parameters for our red noise simulations, though it is not clear how you would do this when you not only don’t know the […]

t-Statistics and the “Hockey Stick Index”

In MM05,  we quantified the “hockeystick-ness” of a series as the difference between the 1902-1980 mean (the “short centering” period of Mannian principal components) and the overall mean (1400-1980), divided by the standard deviation – a measure that we termed its “Hockey Stick Index (HSI)”. Show More Summary

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