Blog Profile / Climate Audit


URL :http://www.climateaudit.org/
Filed Under:Issues & Causes / Climate Change
Posts on Regator:491
Posts / Week:1.4
Archived Since:December 20, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Did McNally Inflate One Football in the Washroom?

In today’s post,  I’m going to show the Deflategate data from a new perspective.   Rather than arguing about whether the Patriots used the Logo gauge, I’ve assumed, for the sake of argument, the NFL’s conclusion that the Non-Logo gauge was used, but gone further (as they ought to have done). I’ve “guessed” the amount of […]

Letter to Daniel Marlow on Exponent Error

On June 29, I sent a letter to Ted Wells, notifying him of the erroneous description of key figures in the Exponent report, but did not receive any acknowledgement.  In the presumption that Daniel Marlow of Princeton is more likely to be concerned about the erroneous research record (as well as having obligations that the […]

Exponent’s Trick to Exaggerate the Decline

In an earlier article,  I pointed out that essential figures in the Exponent report contained (what appeared to be) an important misrepresentation: that transients purporting to represent Logo gauge initialization had not really been initialized with the Logo gauge. Show More Summary

Who “Told” Exponent Not to Consider Switching Scenario?

The transcript of the Brady appeal before Goodell has been released and it’s astonishing to see how the sausage was made.  It raises many issues, one of which I’ll discuss in today’s post. In my previous commentary on the case, I’ve drawn attention to the fact that NFL officials at half-time, despite heightened scrutiny, inadvertently […]

Goodell and Deflategate Science

Yesterday, Roger Goodell released his decision on the Brady appeal. Most of the early discussion has been about Brady’s destruction of his cell phone. Brady has contested the NFL’s characterization of this incident here (see cover here), saying that he had replaced a broken phone; that they had already told the NFL that Brady was not going to […]

Raymond Bradley and the Grand Old Duke of York

In today’s post, I’ll return to more typical Climate Audit programming.  Upside-down Mann’s mentor, Raymond Bradley, has somewhat surprisingly published an article (Balascio et al 2015) that supports a longstanding Climate Audit criticism of varve proxies. Show More Summary

Ruling out high deflation scenarios

Reader chrimony observed that my statistical analysis had shown that it was possible that there had been no tampering, but had not excluded the possibility of tampering.  This is a sensible observation, but raises the question of whether and how one could use the available statistical information to exclude tampering. This is analysis that ought to […]

Exponent’s Transients: Bodge or Botch?

In my first writeup, I observed that Exponent’s Logo transients appeared to be bodged too high, even with their unwarranted and adverse use of 67 deg F initialization (Exponent’s “temperature trick”). In today’s post, I’ve taken a closer look at the seemingly questionable calculation of the transients at 67 deg F, showing that the Patriot […]

The Referees Over-Inflated Patriot Balls

One of the ironies of the NFL’s conduct in this affair is that it can be established that NFL officials (under the supervision of NFL Executive Vice President Troy Vincent) over-inflated Patriot balls at half-time, the only proven tampering with Patriot balls. Brady and the Patriots were unaffected by the overinflation by NFL officials, as […]

More on Deflategate

By converting football pressures to ball temperatures under the Ideal Gas Law, it is possible to conveniently show Colt and Patriot information – transients, simulations and observations – on a common scale. I’ve done this in the diagram shown below, and, in my opinion, it neatly summarizes the actual information. Commentary follows the figure. Figure 1.  Transients as […]

Deflategate and Errors in the Wells Report

Readers in the U.S. are doubtless aware of the “Deflategate scandal”, in which the NFL alleged that Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of his generation, had conspired with an equipment manager and locker room attendant, to deflate a microscopic amount of pressure from footballs in the AFC championship game. The NFL seemed to be completely […]

Implications of recent multimodel attribution studies for climate sensitivity

Last year, a paper of mine (Lewis 2014) showing that the approach used in Frame et al (2005), which argued for using a uniform prior for estimating equilibrium (strictly, effective) climate sensitivity (ECS), in fact led to a unique, objective Bayesian estimate for ECS upon undertaking a simple transformation (change) of variables. The estimate was […]

Scientific American article: “How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research”

A Scientific American article concerning Bjorn Stevens’ recent paper “Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing” has led to some confusion. The article states, referring to a blog post of mine at Climate Audit, “The misinterpretation of Stevens’ paper began with Nic Lewis, an independent climate scientist.”. My blog post showed how climate sensitivity […]

Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 3

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis In Part 1 I introduced the talk I gave at Ringberg 2015, explained why it focussed on estimation based on warming over the instrumental period, and covered problems relating to aerosol forcing and bias caused by the influence of the AMO. In Part 2 I dealt with poor Bayesian […]

Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 2

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis In Part 1 I introduced the talk I gave at Ringberg 2015, explained why it focussed on estimation based on warming over the instrumental period, and covered problems relating to aerosol forcing and bias caused by the influence of the AMO. I now move on to problems arising when […]

Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 1

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis As many readers will be aware, I attended the WCRP Grand Challenge Workshop: Earth’s Climate Sensitivities at Schloss Ringberg in late March. Ringberg 2015 was a very interesting event, attended by many of the best known scientists involved in this field and in areas of research closely related to it – […]

Rahmstorf’s Third Trick

Rahmstorf et al 2015 Figure 5 shows a coral d15N series from offshore Nova Scotia (see left panel below). The corresponding plot from the source is shown on the right.  Original captions for both follow.  There’s enough information in the figures and captions to figure out Rahmstorf’s next trick. See if you can figure it out […]

Rahmstorf’s Second Trick

The Rahmstorf et al reconstruction commences in AD900 even though the Mann et al 2009 reconstruction goes back to AD500.  Once again, this raises the obvious question: why didn’t Rahmstorf show values before AD900?  Are these results adverse to his claims? Once the question is posed, you can guess the answer.  First, here is a slightly annotated […]

Rahmstorf’s First Trick

In any article by Mann and coauthors, it is always prudent to assume that even seemingly innocent choices use up a researcher degree of freedom – to put it nicely. For example, Rahmstorf et al focus on their “AMOC index” in the period ending 1995 and show their AMOC index up to as shown below. […]

Jones and Dixon Refute Conspiracy Theorist Lewandowsky

Jonathan Jones and Ruth Dixon have published (see Ruth’s blog here) a comment  in Psychological Science on conspiracy theorist Stephan Lewandowsky’s Hoax article, much discussed at CA at the time.  Although their statistical points are incontrovertible and clearly expressed, it took considerable persistence – see timeline here. Show More Summary

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