Blog Profile / Climate Audit


URL :http://www.climateaudit.org/
Filed Under:Issues & Causes / Climate Change
Posts on Regator:514
Posts / Week:1.2
Archived Since:December 20, 2008

Blog Post Archive

Objective Bayesian parameter estimation: Incorporating prior information

A guest article by Nic Lewis Introduction In a recent article I discussed Bayesian parameter inference in the context of radiocarbon dating. I compared Subjective Bayesian methodology based on a known probability distribution, from which one or more values were drawn at random, with an Objective Bayesian approach using a noninformative prior that produced results […]

Marvel et al.: GISS did omit land use forcing

A guest article by Nic Lewis I reported in a previous post, here, a number of serious problems that I had identified in Marvel et al. (2015): Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS-E2-R climate model, that estimates of […]

Bayesian parameter estimation: Radiocarbon dating re-examined

A guest article by Nic Lewis Introduction In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age of a single artefact from a radiocarbon date determination (measurement) involved […]

Gerry Browning: In Memory of Professor Heinz Kreiss

Gerry Browning writes: The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models The system of equations numerically approximated by both weather and climate models is called the hydrostatic system. Using a scale analysis for mid-latitude large scale motions in the atmosphere (motions with a horizontal length scale of 1000 km and time scale of […]

Disappearing the MWP at Icefields, Alberta

In today’s post, I’m going to critically examine another widely used tree ring chronology: the Icefields (Alberta) MXD RCS chronology of Luckman and Wilson (2005 pdf), used most recently in Wilson et al 2016. I’ll show that the RCS technique used in the LW2005 MXD chronology eliminated high medieval values as a tautology of their method, not […]

New Light on Gulf of Alaska

Last week, I posted on the effect of ex post site selection on the Gulf of Alaska tree ring chronology used in Wilson et al 2016 (from Wiles et al 2014).  An earlier incarnation of this chronology (in D’Arrigo et al 2016) had had a severe divergence problem, a problem that Wiles et al had purported to […]

Marvel et al. – Gavin Schmidt admits key error but disputes everything else

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Introduction Gavin Schmidt has finally provided, at the GISS website, the iRF and ERF forcing values for a doubling of CO2 (F2xCO2) in GISS-E2-R, and related to this has made wholesale corrections to the results of Marvel et al. 2015 (MEA15). He has coupled this with a criticism at […]

A Return to Polar Urals: Wilson et al 2016

Wilson et al 2016, like D’Arrigo et al 2006, includes a ‘Polar Urals’ chronology as one of its components. Whereas the old version had one of the biggest blades in the entire D’Arrigo et al 2006 portfolio (ending at nearly 4 sigma, with the smooth at 2.5 sigma), the new version, while slightly elevated in the […]

Picking Cherries in the Gulf of Alaska

The bias arising from ex post selection of sites for regional tree ring chronologies has been a long standing issue at Climate Audit, especially in connection with Briffa’s chronologies for Yamal and Polar Urals (see tag.)  I discussed it most recently in connection with the Central Northwest Territories (CNWT) regional chronology of D’Arrigo et al […]

Cherry-Picking by D’Arrigo

One of the longest standing Climate Audit issues with paleoclimate reconstructions is ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of data, of which ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of sites/data in “regional [treering] chronologies” is one important family. Show More Summary

Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates – update

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Introduction In a recent article I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations of changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are biased low. Marvel et al. reached this […]

Bob Carter

I was very saddened to learn of the sudden death of Bob Carter ( here here).   He was one of the few people in this field that I regarded as a friend.  He was only a few years older than me and we got along well personally. I will not attempt to comment on […]

Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis Note: This is a long article: a summary is available here. Introduction In a recent paper[1], NASA scientists led by Kate Marvel and Gavin Schmidt derive the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response of the GISS-E2-R climate model to different types of forcing. They do this by simulations over […]

Update of Model-Observation Comparisons

The strong El Nino has obviously caused great excitement in the warmist community.  It should also cause any honest skeptic/lukewarmer to re-examine whether observations remain inconsistent with models. In today’s post, I’ll show two comparisons: 1) CMIP5 models (TAS) vs HadCRUT4; 2) CMIP5 models (TLT) vs RSS (UAH is only negligibly different).  For this post, […]

COP21 Emission Projections

In the wake of COP21, I thought that it would be interesting to compare the respective pathways of China and the U.S (and others) based on official data. I still plan to post on this topic, but obtaining official data on the pathways proved much more difficult than I anticipated.  Leading into the COP21 conference […]

Balascio et al and the Baffin Island Inconsistency

There was some publicity this week on a paper by Young et al (Science Advances, 2015), which, according to Gifford Miller, whose work has been frequently discussed at CA (see  tag), had supposedly put the “coup de grace on the Medieval Warm Period”, that had been so long wished for by the Team.   […]

What “Science” is “Telling Us” About Climate Damages to Canada

Just before leaving for Paris, the Canadian government, like many others,  stated that “science” was “telling us” that climate change was “one of the greatest threats of our time”. The scientific evidence is clear: climate change is one of the greatest threats of our time. The Government of Canada recognizes that global temperature increases must be […]

Antarctic Ice Mass Controversies

Like many others, I was interested in the recent controversy arising from findings of Zwally et al 2015 that there had been ice mass gain gain of ~112±61 Gt/year over 1992-2001 and ~82±25 Gt/year over 2003-2008.  Zwally’s findings obviously contradict a widely held contrary belief, expressed, for example, in IPCC AR5’s assertion there was “high confidence” that the […]

Shukla’s Gold

Roger Pielke Jr recently made the remarkable discovery that, in addition to his university salary from George Mason University (reported by Pielke as $250,000), Jagadish Shukla, the leader of the #RICO20, together with his wife, hadShow More Summary

Disinformation from Barry Klinger and the RICO 20

The RICO-20 gang of climate scientists commenced its supposed campaign against misinformation with false information about skeptic reactions to the Cuccinelli investigation. Barry Klinger, one of Shukla’s hangers-on at George Mason University,...Show More Summary

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