Blog Profile / FiveThirtyEight

Filed Under:Politics / US Politics
Posts on Regator:2144
Posts / Week:4.6
Archived Since:April 7, 2009

Blog Post Archive

Stop Saying Trump’s Win Had Nothing To Do With Economics

This is In Real Terms, a regular column analyzing the latest economic news. Comments? Criticisms? Ideas for future columns? Email me, or drop a note in the comments. In the months leading up to Election Day, a heated debate broke out among political commentators over the source of Donald Trump’s support. Was it driven primarily […]

Everyone Is Vulnerable To Conflicts Of Interest. Including Donald Trump.

“The president can’t have a conflict of interest,” Donald Trump told The New York Times in November. He appears to have meant that in the legal sense — the president isn’t bound by the same conflict-of-interest laws that loom over other executive branch officials and employees. But that doesn’t mean the president’s interests can’t be […]

Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton The Election

Registered voters who didn’t vote on Election Day in November were more Democratic-leaning than the registered voters who turned out, according to a post-election poll from SurveyMonkey, shared with FiveThirtyEight. In fact, Donald Trump...Show More Summary

Fact-Checking Won’t Save Us From Fake News

Fake news. We’ve used this phrase so many times in the past two months that it’s almost lost meaning — partly because it can mean so many different things. Depending on who you talk to, “fake news” may refer to satirical news, hoaxes, news that’s clumsily framed or outright wrong, propaganda, lies destined for viral […]

Do Voters Care About Ethics?

In this week’s politics chat, we try to make sense of the aborted effort by House Republicans to weaken the Office of Congressional Ethics. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Welcome to the first politics chat of 2017, everyone! Nate is off somewhere vacationing, so we’re joined today instead […]

As Obamacare Faces Repeal, Its Legacy Is Still Up In The Air

When President Obama took office in 2009, the U.S. was in trouble — 50.7 million people were uninsured, the largest number in history. Mortality rates were on the rise, even as health care spending grew faster than the nation’s economy. Obama was always going to address the situation through some type of health care reform, […]

What Harry Got Wrong In 2016

It’s time once again to look back on what I screwed up in the past year — there’s really no better way to start the new year than going over your biggest mistakes from the old one. 2016 brought hard lessons in humility for a lot of political observers, and I’m no exception. The year […]

Politics Podcast: Data Under Trump

This week on our politics podcast, we kick off 2017 with a look at something FiveThirtyEight cares about, and uses a lot: government data. Clare Malone recently wrote about what to expect from Donald Trump’s administration when it comes to government data, and talked to watchdogs who warned that such data might be at risk. […]

Some Of Our Best Work From 2016

As we hurtle toward 2017, the FiveThirtyEight staff has been thinking about our favorite articles, podcasts and videos from the past year. This isn’t a comprehensive list, but here are some gems that you might have missed — or that we think are worth another look or listen.     Oliver Roeder investigated a plagiarism […]

The Best And Worst Data Stories Of 2016

It’s time once again to dole out FiveThirtyEight’s Data Awards, our annual (OK, we’ve done it once before) chance to honor those who did remarkably good stuff with data, to shame those who did remarkably bad stuff with data, and to acknowledge the key numbers that help describe what went down over the past year. […]

Three Economic Lessons From 2016 — And Three Questions For 2017

This is In Real Terms, a regular column analyzing the latest economic news. Comments? Criticisms? Ideas for future columns? Email me, or drop a note in the comments. The past year has taught some harsh lessons. Trust polls more than you trust the conventional wisdom, for example — but don’t trust the polls too much. […]

Politics Podcast: Good Use Of Polling Or Bad Use Of Polling — In “The West Wing”

Our politics podcast is taking the holiday week off. But, instead of a new show, we’re bringing you audio from one of our favorite events of 2016. Over the summer, we did a live show in Los Angeles with our friends at “The West Wing Weekly” podcast looking at how polls were used in the […]

Trump Would Need Larry Kudlow To Be Focused On Economics, Not Politics

When President George W. Bush considered imposing a steep tariff on imported steel in 2002, the chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers, Glenn Hubbard, told him it was a bad idea. Hubbard pointed to the near-consensus among economists that tariffs cost jobs rather than create them. He laid out the math showing the move […]

Where To Say ‘Merry Christmas’ vs. ‘Happy Holidays’ — 2016 Edition

The “War on Christmas” seems a bit more pitched than usual this year, and it’s likely that the campaign and election of Donald Trump has served as a catalyst. The idea is that there’s an organized effort to remove Christmas from the public square by hectoring people into greeting co-workers, neighbors and store clerks with […]

How Much Did Wikileaks Hurt Hillary Clinton?

How did Hillary Clinton blow a 7-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in the final month of the campaign? Much of the post-election analysis has revolved around FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28. Less attention was spent on the role that Wikileaks played. Until, that is, news broke that the CIA thought […]

Trump’s Cabinet Choices Have Given A Lot Of Money To Senators

When the U.S. Senate decides next year whether to confirm Wilbur Ross as secretary of commerce, among the 100 senators voting on his nomination will be eight people whom Ross has supported with a combined $62,100 in campaign contributions since 1990. When Andrew Puzder’s nomination to be secretary of labor goes before the Senate, it […]

The ‘Most Powerful Political Players Of 2017’ Draft Extravaganza!!

In this week’s politics chat, we go looking for the most powerful political players of 2017. The transcript below has been lightly edited.   micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): It’s Draft Day!!!! We’ll have a pool of political figures, and the goal is to draft the team that will have the most influence on America’s […]

Syria’s Civil War Is Spilling Into Turkey’s Streets — And Art Galleries

Following two deadly bomb attacks against Turkish security forces last week, the assassination of a Russian ambassador at an art gallery in Ankara on Monday revealed the extent to which Syria’s civil war has spilled over into Turkey. Despite the inevitable Franz Ferdinand comparisons, Turkey and Russia have worked to prevent Monday’s shooting from escalating […]

Voters Really Did Switch To Trump At The Last Minute

Donald Trump’s somewhat surprising win has forced many political analysts to wonder: Were we wrong all along in thinking Hillary Clinton had the upper hand, or was late-breaking movement to Trump part of the reason why polling averages missed his upset Electoral College victory? There’s certainly evidence that the polls underestimated Trump’s support in crucial […]

The Electoral College Has Become Another Partisan Issue

For the past half century, a majority of voters consistently have told pollsters they’d like to amend the constitution to scrap the Electoral College and award the presidency to the winner of the most popular votes nationwide. But since Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote and Donald Trump won the Electoral College, fewer than […]

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