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Blog Profile / Pollytics


URL :http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
Filed Under:Politics / Australian Politics
Posts on Regator:134
Posts / Week:0.6
Archived Since:May 25, 2010

Blog Post Archive

What would a proper regional solution look like?

There was a lot of predictability in the responses to yesterday’s Gillard speech and policy proposals on asylum seekers, at least as far as the broader commentariat were concerned – the Labor leaners loved it,  the Green left saw dog-whistles, while the wingnuts created yet another acute shortage of tin foil in supermarkets around the [...]

Essential Report – Gillard Attributes

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 42/39 to Labor (steady), washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – unchanged since last week. The Greens are on 11 (up 2), while the broad Others are down 2 to come in on 8. This comes from a rolling [...]

2010 Professional Ratings for Honesty

Roy Morgan has released its annual Image Of Professions survey for 2010, where the public rate various professions on their perceived levels of honesty and ethical standards. To get the rankings, Roy Morgan asks the following question: As I say different occupations, could you please say — from what you know or have heard – which [...]

Betting Market Friday

This week on Betting Market Friday – Betfair declares its love for Julia Gillard, Sportingbet holds deep reservations about their new relationship, while the mysterious stranger IASbet returns to Punter Street with a bang. The first week of the Gillard Era had all the agencies move towards a Labor election victory bar Centerbet, which remained steady. [...]

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

Since our last roundup, we’ve had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing identical results for the major parties, and a 1 point gain to the Greens at the expense of a 1 point drop [...]

The electoral reality of Rudd’s last days.

Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterly release of their polling demographic breakdowns between April and June in The Oz. In what can only be described as very convenient timing, this allows us to pool these Newspoll results with the Nieslen results over the same period (plus one  unpublished phone poll I [...]

First Gillard Polling

Today brings about the first robust polling of the Gillard era (there were a few not so robust jobbies floating around yesterday in the media  using instapundit online panels – ignore them, they may well have had big sample sizes, but their sampling frame isn’t up to the job required for political polling.) We have a [...]

Julia moves the markets

Yesterday’s historic spill had quite an impact on the election betting markets, with the money moving towards Labor considerably. However, it all get’s a little complicated as IASbet closed their election book and hasn’t yet reopened, Sportingbet and Sportsbet both appeared to open new books where prices quickly adjusted once the punters came in- while [...]

Spill

What a very odd 24 hours. Today’s Newspoll quarterly shows that the ALP would have won around 81 seats to 66 were an election held during the last three months – a period where Labor polled their lowest in Newspoll in 4 years. Kevin Rudd is now toast, as the ALP has no choice but to [...]

Analysing the Soft Vote

Since the beginning of May, Essential Report has been asking their poll respondents about the firmness of their vote -  a valuable addition to the matrix of polling information we can use, as it gives us a measure of sensitivity in the strength of the primary vote levels of each party. The responses show some [...]

Marginal Seat Newspolling

Newspoll released today via The Oz a set of marginal seat polling that they undertook along with their usual nationwide poll over the period from last Friday to Sunday. It was based on three separate samples where the Qld seats of Longman, Dawson and Flynn were one, the NSW north coast seat of Page was [...]

Beware the substance of nothing

Today’s Newspoll result shows the Labor Party with an election winning lead of 52% to 48% on the two party preferred, with a margin of error of +/- 3%. This is  a one point gain to Labor from the previous Newspoll and the third consecutive Newspoll where Labor has gained a point on the two [...]

Essential Report – Leaders Leaders Leaders Edition

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries showing the Coalition down 1 to 40, the ALP up 3 to 38, the Greens down 3 to 11 and the broad “Others” up 1 to 10. This washes out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor, a one point gain to the red [...]

Newspoll and horsefluff

Today’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running with the Coalition down 1 to 40, ALP steady on 35, The Greens are down 1 on 15 while the broad “Others” are up 2 to 10. When this gets 2007 election preference distributions applied to it – as Newspoll does –  it all [...]

Betting Market Friday

After last week’s move to the Coalition in the markets, this week produced a bit of a settling pattern where nothing much happened at all. The usual charts come in like this:

August 28 election?

On a Fed Dept intranet: Minutes to the Parliamentary Secretary – deadline The Parliamentary Secretary’s Office has requested that the areas provide, by   23 June 2010, all Minutes that require a decision before 19 July 2010. To meet this deadline, Offices should provide any Minutes that require a   decision by the Parliamentary Secretary to TGA Parliamentary by COB [...]

Public perceptions of media, bias and accuracy

This week’s Essential Report had an interesting set of questions on public perceptions of influence and trust as they apply to a number of various groups in Australia, one being the media. That got me thinking about public perceptions of the media more generally, so today we’ll have a quick squiz at the polling data [...]

How profitable is mining – Part 2

Yesterday we had a quick squiz at the profitability of the Australian mining industry compared to both other domestic industries as well as the world’s largest 40 mining companies. Today, it’s worth a taking a closer look at how mining industry profitability in Australia plays out on the basis of business size as well as [...]

How profitable is mining?

According to the ABS, very profitable. At the end of last month (May 28), the ABS published their annual “Australian Industry” release which looked at a wide array of comparative industry performance measures for the Australian economy in the 2008/09 financial year. The results for mining are probably worth going over considering the hyperbole venting from [...]

Celebrity Deathmatch – Packer vs. Murdoch

Yes, it did actually happen – a brilliant yarn by Rod Tiffen over at Inside Story on an hilarious yet mostly forgotten event in Australian media. Punch ups, printing presses and some of the most colorful characters in the post-war Newspaper business – this corker of a story has it all.

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