Blog Profile / Mercenary Trader

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:854
Posts / Week:3.4
Archived Since:August 23, 2010

Blog Post Archive

Germany is Delusional to the Point of Insanity (and We’re Getting More Shorts On)

Deflation — or rather the extreme results of such, in the aftermath of harsh slowdown — brought us the Nazis in the 1930s...

Baby Got Black (Swan)

I like... fat... tails and I cannot lie... you vol sellers can't deny...

SpaceX Shows How Failure Creates Success

Here is what winners understand, deep down in their gut, that the mediocre masses don't: Failure paves the road to success.

Never Trust a Central Banker…

The first lesson might be "Never trust a central banker." The second lesson might be "Never bet the farm on a sure thing" -- or better yet, "If you're going to bet the farm, have two farms."

Yes the Dollar is a “Crowded Trade” — But Not In the Manner Most Think

The US dollar (aka USD, aka greenback) is a “crowded trade” — and everybody knows it...

An Illustrated Metaphorical Difference Between Skilled Traders and Mutual Fund Managers

In metaphorical terms — if the typical mutual fund is a lumbering city bus, the capital deployment of a truly skilled trader is more akin to this...

Dip Buyers Have Another Chance to Be Reckless, and the Fed Gives a Not-So-Subtle Warning To Europe

The automatic dip buyers have bought, like Pavlov’s Dog, every single time the indices have threatened to fail these past two years... Ignoring risk is a game that gets you killed in the end.

Buy and Hold Complacency Has Peaked, the Saudis Still Aren’t Kidding, and Europe is a Disaster Zone

The deep structure of markets is mean reverting and cyclical. Given the passage of time, the pendulum always swings.

German Delusion Could Lead to Acropolis Now Redux, and a Major Inflection Point Looms for the Euro and European Equities

Europe is staring into a deflationary abyss. And yet Germany is delusional, determined to hang on to austerity measures no matter what.

Investors always get killed at cycle tops, small caps look like a trap, and it’s way too early to buy energy stocks

Investors always lose their shirts at the top of market cycles. This is a combination of greed, impatience, and FOMO, aka “fear of missing out.”

You Don’t Have to Know the Future (And Shouldn’t Want To!)

We've got our ideas and opinions. We certainly see some big things happening in 2015. With that said, we don't predict. We just don't believe in it...

Saudi Arabia’s Mental Paradigm Shift Confirms Triple-Digit Gold

If you’ve had any doubts about the brutal nature of Saudi Arabia’s strategy...

It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like 1998

If Russia defaults on its debt, foreign lenders could be exposed to $670 BILLION in losses...

The Saudi Oil War Means Structural Sea Change; Risk-Off Turmoil Fuels Long Bond Strength

The price of crude is global, thus price war fallout is global. As a result, for all the havoc US shale producers will face, others are being hit much, much harder by oil’s collapse.

Reflections on Page Sixteen

When the story shows up on a magazine cover, the biggest profits have generally been made...

Fill ‘Er Up (At Less Than Two Bucks a Gallon)

According to GasBuddy, which tracks the numbers, the US national average for a gallon of gasoline is now $2.74. That is 51 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The world has changed in surprising ways…

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