|Filed Under:||Business & Finance / Investing|
|Posts on Regator:||778|
|Posts / Week:||5.3|
|Archived Since:||August 23, 2010|
Trading Wisdom 29: It is very hard to read in the office, what with interruptions from phone calls and the inevitable seduction of the screens. E-mails and the Bloomberg are huge distractions and time wasters. Staring at Bloomberg screens is not productive for thinking.
If there is a credible counter-case as to how China will evade all the lessons of history, slip past its egregious mistakes unscathed, mimic the worst sins of the West while paying no penalties, and turn the essential tenets of free market economics upside down in doing so, we would love to hear what it is.
Trading Wisdom 28: "at particular times a great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money..."
Sep 18th - These chart patterns demonstrate, in a nutshell, what QE3 actually was, and is: An impressive yet ultimately pathetic hail mary, with significant power to distort prices in the short term, but extremely low likelihood of meaningful positive effect.
Trading Wisdom 27: "Volatility matters when you feel it. All the charts, ratios and advanced math in the world mean nothing when you break down, vomit or cry due to the volatility in your portfolio."
The point is not economic impact, or accolades and social recognition, or shallow thoughts of bigness and self-importance. It is the sense of harmony experienced by the shokunin as a fulfilled individual, via both excelling and delighting in a calling.
Sep 17th - An organization that is corrupt but intelligent can at least be counted on to consider the merits of pulling itself back from the brink. An organization run by out-to-lunch academic kool-aid drinkers is a threat to blow up both itself and the world for the sake of institutionalized idiocy.
The Fed may have further decided that President Obama's reelection is so important, it is worth risking all manner of bad optics to make it happen (by juicing the economy prior to November as much as it possibly can)...
Sep 14th - While normal QE3 / normal policy language expectations were baked into the cake, the possibility that Bernanke would tell the hawks to go to hell and give the doves everything they could possibly have dreamed of was not baked into the cake. That is why the market roared so ferociously.
Trading Wisdom 26: "The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader."
Thurs Sep 13th - In recent trading of the US dollar, stimulus expectations and reigning conventional wisdom - and you know by know we don't think a whole hell of a lot of conventional wisdom! - have combined to create an exploitable environment extreme.
Trading Wisdom 25: "How do you get to be the world's oldest investor? The answer is don’t crap out."
Sep 12th - When is the last time markets had such an incredible confluence of "buy the rumor, sell the news" event drivers ?all converging on the same event space? - expectations of QE3, expectations of a Europe solution, expectations of a China stimulus package, and expectations of Apple's next major product event, all getting fulfilled at the same time...
We are gearing up for a big fourth quarter here at Mercenary Trader. Markets are starting to heat up - welcome back, volatility! - and, per the usual, we've got some pretty exciting stuff in the works.
Trading Wisdom 24: "For up-to-date evaluation, there is no time but the present."
Sep 11th - Parabolic moves are not healthy and rarely end well. They are more often an indicator of frenzy and underlying gamesmanship than constructive fundamental change....
Trading Wisdom 23: Can a healthy sense of insecurity, applied correctly and in the right proportions, be seen as a competitive advantage - or a useful form of risk control?
Fri Sep 7th - Decisive steps to save the eurozone mean that tail risk for European banks - the possibility of a derivatives-related blowup - has been substantially reduced. This is very good news for US banks and brokers as well, given the connectedness of the system and their unquantifiable exposures to Europe.
Trading Wisdom 22: "Mountains should be climbed with as little effort as possible and without desire. The reality of your own nature should determine the speed..."
Thurs Sep 6th - We have been looking for a spot to initiate a short position on the euro, on the conviction that forward moving events will result in a stronger US dollar than many might think, and the bearish post-Draghi conference reaction may have just given us our first shot at an entry window