Blog Profile / Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Filed Under:Academics / Mathematics
Posts on Regator:3748
Posts / Week:10.4
Archived Since:October 26, 2010

Blog Post Archive

Using black-box machine learning predictions as inputs to a Bayesian analysis

Following up on this discussion [Designing an animal-like brain: black-box “deep learning algorithms” to solve problems, with an (approximately) Bayesian “consciousness” or “executive functioning organ” that attempts to make sense of...Show More Summary

p less than 0.00000000000000000000000000000000 . . . now that’s what I call evidence!

I read more carefully the news article linked to in the previous post, which describes a forking-pathed nightmare of a psychology study, the sort of thing that was routine practice back in 2010 or so but which we’ve mostly learned to at least try to avoid. Show More Summary

Stan Course in Newcastle, United Kingdom!

(this post is by Betancourt) The growth of Stan has afforded the core team many opportunities to give courses, to both industrial and academic audiences and at venues  across the world.  Regrettably we’re not always able to keep up with demand for new courses, especially outside of the United States, due to our already busy schedules. Show More Summary

As if the 2010s never happened

E. J. writes: I’m sure I’m not the first to send you this beauty. Actually, E. J., you’re the only one who sent me this! It’s a news article, “Can the fear of death instantly make you a better athlete?”, reporting on a psychology experiment:...Show More Summary

Maybe this paper is a parody, maybe it’s a semibluff

Peter DeScioli writes: I was wondering if you saw this paper about people reading Harry Potter and then disliking Trump, attached. It seems to fit the shark attack genre. In this case, the issue seems to be judging causation from multiple...Show More Summary

Where does the discussion go?

Jorge Cimentada writes: In this article, Yascha Mounk is saying that political scientists have failed to predict unexpected political changes such as the Trump nomination and the sudden growth of populism in Europe, because, he argues, of the way we’re testing hypotheses. Show More Summary

Extended StanCon 2018 Deadline!

(this post is by Betancourt) We received an ensemble of exciting submissions for StanCon2018, but some of our colleagues requested a little bit of extra time to put the finishing touches on their submissions.  Being the generous organizers that we are, we have decided to extend the submission deadline for everyone by two weeks. Show More Summary

Type M errors in the wild—really the wild!

Jeremy Fox points me to this article, “Underappreciated problems of low replication in ecological field studies,” by Nathan Lemoine, Ava Hoffman, Andrew Felton, Lauren Baur, Francis Chaves, Jesse Gray, Qiang Yu, and Melinda Smith, who...Show More Summary

Type M errors studied in the wild

Brendan Nyhan points to this article, “Very large treatment effects in randomised trials as an empirical marker to indicate whether subsequent trials are necessary: meta-epidemiological assessment,” by Myura Nagendran, Tiago Pereira, Grace Kiew, Douglas Altman, Mahiben Maruthappu, John Ioannidis, and Peter McCulloch. Show More Summary

New Zealand election polling

Llewelyn Richards-Ward writes: Here is a forecaster apparently using a simulated (?Bayesian) approach and smoothing over a bunch of poll results in an attempt to guess the end result. I looked but couldn’t find his methodology but he...Show More Summary

American Democracy and its Critics

I just happened to come across this article of mine from 2014: it’s a review published in the American Journal of Sociology of the book “American Democracy,” by Andrew Perrin. My review begins: Actually-existing democracy tends to have support in the middle of the political spectrum but is criticized on the two wings. Show More Summary

Causal inference using data from a non-representative sample

Dan Gibbons writes: I have been looking at using synthetic control estimates for estimating the effects of healthcare policies, particularly because for say county-level data the nontreated comparison units one would use in say a difference-in-differences...Show More Summary

Job openings at online polling company!

Kyle Dropp of online polling firm Morning Consult says they are hiring a bunch of mid-level data scientists and software engineers at all levels: About Morning Consult: We are interviewing about 10,000 adults every day in the U.S. and...Show More Summary

Trial by combat, law school style

This story is hilarious. 78-year-old law professor was told he can no longer teach a certain required course; this jeopardizes his current arrangement where he is paid full time but only teaches one semester a year, so he’s suing his employer... Show More Summary

It seemed to me that most destruction was being done by those who could not choose between the two

Amateurs, dilettantes, hacks, cowboys, clones — Nick Cave [Note from Dan 11Sept: I wanted to leave some clear air after the StanCon reminder, so I scheduled this post for tomorrow. Which means you get two posts (one from me, one from Andrew) on this in two days. Show More Summary

“How conditioning on post-treatment variables can ruin your experiment and what to do about it”

Brendan Nyhan writes: Thought this might be of interest – new paper with Jacob Montgomery and Michelle Torres, How conditioning on post-treatment variables can ruin your experiment and what to do about it. The post-treatment bias from...Show More Summary

God, goons, and gays: 3 quick takes

Next open blog spots are in April but all these are topical so I thought I’d throw them down right now for ya. 1. Alex Durante writes: I noticed that this study on how Trump supporters respond to racial cues is getting some media play, notably over at Vox. Show More Summary

The StanCon Cometh

(In a stunning deviation from the norm, this post is not by Andrew or Dan, but Betancourt!) Some important dates for StanCon2018 are rapidly approaching! Contributed submissions are due September 16, 2017 5:00:00 AM GMT. That’s lessShow More Summary

Looking for the bottom line

I recommend this discussion of how to summarize posterior distributions. I don’t recommend summarizing by the posterior probability that the new treatment is better than the old treatment is not a bottom-line statement! The post Looking for the bottom line appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Do we trust these data on political news consumption?

Mark Palko writes: The Monkey Cage just retweeted this but some of the numbers look funny. “This” is a paper, “The Myth of Partisan Selective Exposure: A Portrait of the Online Political News Audience,” by Jacob Nelson and James Webster,...Show More Summary

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