Blog Profile / Short Takes


URL :http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:1853
Posts / Week:5
Archived Since:November 29, 2010

Blog Post Archive

Extremely Rare Long-Term Setups For Stocks 1928-2017

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Fed Rate Hike History Says Bulls Could Run For A Long Time

Facts Say Be Open To Better Than Expected Outcomes Dating back to August 2016, our weekly videos have covered numerous long-term charts that tell us to remain open to the possibility of stocks rising for several more years, including: Bullish Monthly Momentum (MACD) - December 2, 2016 Long-Term Breakout In Stock/Bond Ratio - December 9, 2016 Annual Signal Last [...]

Is The Market Concerned About…?

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Are Monthly Charts Starting To Show Some Cracks?

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The Big Picture In Three Charts

Average Stock Breakout Since it is an equally-weighted and broad index, the Value Line Geometric Index is a good way to monitor the average stock. As shown in the chart below, a very long-term and bullish breakout occurred recently. Stocks Break Out Versus Bonds There is nothing in the stock/bond chart below that contradicts the bullish [...]

Extremely Rare Stock vs. Bond Set-Up

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Did Market Breadth Confirm The New Highs In Stocks?

Bad Breadth Can Foreshadow Bear Markets Market breadth speaks to the number of stocks participating in an advance. Strong market breadth means a high percentage of stocks are making new highs as the major indexes make new highs. Strong breadth also aligns with widespread confidence in stocks and the economy. Bearish Divergence In 2000 The chart below [...]

What Can We Learn From Asset Class Behavior?

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Tech Stocks: 2017 Looks Nothing Like 2000

Bubbles Speak To Unsustainable Trends It may be surprising to some the NASDAQ made zero progress over a 6,083 calendar-day period between March 10, 2000 and November 3, 2016. The NASDAQ closed at 5,048 when the dot-com bubble peaked in 2000. Fast-forward 16.66 years and we find the NASDAQ closed at 5,046 (two points [...]

This Signal Has Only Occurred Two Times In Last 60 Years

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This Indicator Had A Divergence In Both 2000 And 2007; How Does It Look Today?

Bad Breadth Can Foreshadow Bear Markets Market breadth speaks to the number of stocks participating in an advance. Strong market breadth means a high percentage of stocks are making new highs as the major indexes make new highs. Strong breadth also aligns with widespread confidence in stocks and the economy. Bearish Divergence In 2000 The chart below [...]

Stock Ownership Figures Look Nothing Like A Bubble

A Euphoric, All In Bubble? Once a year, Gallup conducts a poll that provides some insight into the sustainability of the bull market in stocks. The concept of an investment bubble implies irrational investor confidence. If skepticism and fear were near all-time, bubble-like lows, we would expect a very high percentage of U.S. households [...]

Nobel Prize Winner: Are You Too Close To The Markets?

The University of Chicago’s Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel Prize for his pioneering work in behavioral economics. His work aligns with many of the common investor missteps covered in CCM videos in recent months. Morningstar/MarketWatch pointed out how Professor Thaler’s work can assist us in a world where new information is available 24/7/365: “Unfortunately, [...]

Are The Charts Skewed By Algos And ETFs?

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The Mother Of All Breakouts Still In Play

Short-Term View The NYSE Composite stock index traded near the bottom of the orange box shown below in 2013 and 2016. The index visited the top of the box in 2014, 2015, and again in late 2016, before breaking out. A successful retest of the breakout occurred earlier in 2017. Fractals Are Key Since [...]

The Rational Case For Stock Market Plunges In 1987, 2011, and 2017

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Stocks Still Have Strong Low-Inflation/Low-Rates/Improving-Economy Tailwind

Lower Rates Longer When interest rates are low and economic data is improving, stocks typically get an added opportunity-cost boost relative to bonds. From The Wall Street Journal: “Leaders of the world’s largest central banks indicated that weak inflation in advanced economies could prolong the post-crisis era of easy-money policies. Despite a broad-based improvement in the [...]

What Would Jesse Livermore Tell Investors In 2017?

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Is Market Breadth Confirming The Stock Market’s Recent Highs?

Volume-Based Breadth Indicator The monthly chart below shows the NYSE’s volume associated with advancing issues minus volume associated with declining issues. As of October 9, 2017, the indicator has been making new highs along with the market. Fact or Fiction? This week’s stock market video water tests three widely held beliefs about bull and bear markets, [...]

BULL AND BEAR MARKET MYTHBUSTERS

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