Blog Profile / Angry Bear

Filed Under:Business & Finance
Posts on Regator:2330
Posts / Week:9.9
Archived Since:February 18, 2011

Blog Post Archive

How Many Equations Should There be in Macroeconomic Models ?

Recently a very old debate among macroeconomists has been reopened (this happens from time to time). Paul Romer decided to discuss a key conference held in 1978 (yes really). Some (including me) think that’s about when the profession took a wrong turn largely following Robert Lucas. But in the discussion until about yesterday, it was […]

Real Household Net Worth: Look Out Below?

In my last post I pointed out that over the last half century, every time the year-over-year change in Real Household Net Worth went negative (real household wealth decreased), a recession had either started, or was about to.  (One bare exception: a tiny decline in Q4 2011, which looks rather like turbulence following The Big Whatever.) […]

Predicting Recessions The Easy Way: Monetarists, MMT, And The Money Stock

I have a new post up that has implications for stock-market investment, so I decided to try posting it over at Seeking Alpha, where they’re paying me a few tens of dollars for the post (plus more based on page views — not much luck so far). The post argues that year-over-year change in Real […]

Noah Smith Notes a Puzzle

Noah smith has a question which I paraphrase as : Interest rates on corporate bonds are very low. The return on capital for business as a whole is quite high. Why isn’t investment very high ? My thoughts This is related to average v marginal. I think it is important to distinguish fixed capital into […]

Wren-Lewis on Romer on Solow on Lucas & Sargent

People who know more than I do are discussing the rational expectations revolution and the division of macroeconomics into hostile fresh-water and salt-water schools of thought. I am very favorably impressed by this post by Simon Wren-Lewis which you should probably just read. ). Wren-Lewis quotes Paul Romer. “Lucas and Sargent were right in 1978 […]

The implications of the child care cost crush for median household income and "shadow unemployment"

by New Deal democrat The implications of the child care cost crush for median household income and “shadow unemployment” The other day I showed that there is compelling evidence that the primary reason for the long term decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate in the 25 – 54 age range is the increasing real […]


The recent stock market fall appears to be in reaction to weakness in foreign economies, not domestic developments in the US.     One measure to watch is world trade. from December to May world trade volume fell -3.4%. Interestingly, in the first five months of the 1971 decline trade fell -3.5%, essentially the same […]

The basics of tax increment financing subsidies

Last week I made a presentation to the Colorado Assessors Association on tax increment financing (TIF) subsidies. With the organization’s permission, I am sharing the PowerPoint presentation for my talk, as well as adding this introduction. The talk begins by putting TIF in the context of subsidies generally. As a subsidy, TIF is subject to […]

Serious Question, Janet Yellen Edition

In spite of a sustained lack of inflation, a large, sustained gap in the Civilian Employment/Population Ratio, an abiding lack of post-recession growth domestically, and significant underperformance (old, new, [PDF] and overall) internationally, the Fed appears prepared to raise interest rates this year. Show More Summary

Do rising child care costs & stagnant wages explain the decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate ?

by New Deal democrat Do rising child care costs & stagnant wages explain the decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate ? What is driving the long term decline, shown in the graph below, in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) among prime working age adults, ages 25-54? A couple of weeks ago I wrote […]

Greece’s Missing Drivers of Growth

by Joseph Joyce Greece’s Missing Drivers of Growth Analyses and discussions of Greece’s economic situation usually begin—and often end—with its fiscal policy. The policies mandated by the “troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have undoubtedly resulted in a severe contraction that will continue for at least this […]

Why is productivity so weak?

One of the major reasons I expects sluggish growth and weak earnings is the secular decline in the growth of real net fixed nonresidential investment. The dominant factor driving productivity growth is workers being provided additional capital equipment to assist them. It is the old simple story of getting a ditch dug. Would you rather […]

Final subsidy accounting rules published!

On Friday, the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) published the final version of its new rules requiring governments to make reporting on subsidies a standard part of their financial reports (known as Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports, or CAFRs). Show More Summary

We Need To Be Kind To Be Cruel

By Noni Mausa We Need To Be Kind To Be Cruel Aug 15 2015 In press conferences and TV panels, we keep hearing important people discuss budgets, entitlements, deficits, and the big knobs and levers of the economy.  Those spokesmen or Show More Summary

Argument: more health insurance does not lower cost

This morning on Washington Journal was a discussion with Marogt Sanger-Katz of the NYT Upshot blog.    She wrote a post: No, Giving More People Health Insurance Doesn’t Save Money.  It’s a controversial title for sure, but there is some interesting points that I know are often mentioned on a few email lists I’m on for […]

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