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Blog Profile / Financial Sense

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:7429
Posts / Week:37.3
Archived Since:February 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

Deflationary Indicators Yawn at Fed’s Growth Confidence

The jabbertalk parsers have rarely been in finer form than following yesterday’s latest Federal Reserve comedy hour. It is truly incredible to hear the Yellen-syllable analysis now engulfing the stock...

FOMC Recap

Yesterday's FOMC statement was a reminder that in normal times the Federal Reserve moves slowly and methodically. Policymakers were apparently concerned that removal of "considerable time" by itself would prove to be disruptive.

China’s Pivot Toward Europe May Cut U.S. Out of Deal

November 18, 2014: it’s a day that should live forever in history. On that day, in the city of Yiwu in China’s Zhejiang province, 300 kilometers south of Shanghai, the first train carrying 82 containers of export goods weighing more than 1,000 tons left...

Draghi Risks Becoming the Boy Who Cried Wolf Over QE

Recent remarks by ECB President Mario Draghi have promised to tackle the near-recession level of activity plaguing the Eurozone. But while words have come often, there has been far less action from the central banking system, which seems rife with internal debate and political issues.

Recent Hindenburg Omens Signaled Caution, Now What?

The cluster of Hindenburg Omens on the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 correctly warned of a pullback in the markets but now that we appear to be stabilizing with the FOMC meeting out of the way how should investors view the recent market weakness?

Does Russia Present a Systemic Threat to Global Markets?

Winston Churchill famously said of Russian foreign policy that it was "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." What people leave out is what followed. Churchill offered an answer: "perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

Spotlight on the Fed

The Fed remains in the spotlight today, with the central bank expected to give investors a roadmap for the future course of monetary policy. There are plenty of other headlines as well, ranging from a continued oil price sell-off...

Competition Finally Upsets the Biggest Monopoly of All: OPEC

No coercive monopoly or business able to sustain its prices without regard for competition can prevail in a free market. Its profits, above those prevailing in the market, will attract competitors, either producing its product or an alternative product, and they will gain market share by charging lower prices.

Mish’s Take: What’s Behind the Plunge in Oil? Boon to Spending or Recessionary?

In the wake of a widely unexpected, huge oil price decline, I have received many questions and comments. Some speculate U.S. pressure on Saudi Arabia to punish Russia. Others think "big oil" is out to punish the frackers.

Viewing Russia From the Inside

Last week I flew into Moscow, arriving at 4:30 p.m. on Dec. 8. It gets dark in Moscow around that time, and the sun doesn't rise until about 10 a.m. at this time of the year — the so-called Black Days versus White Nights. For anyone used to life closer to the equator, this is unsettling.

Red Flags in Russia

The yield on the 10-yr Treasury note has dropped six basis points this morning to 2.06%. Why lead with that? Because it's a telling indication that market participants recognize something is amiss out there.

U.S. vs. Global Shock

The string of solid U.S. economic news continued with industrial production advancing 1.3% in November. Year-over-year growth (5.2%) is now comparable to the late-90's. Meanwhile, the international fallout from the oil price drop continues. Russia is a classic emerging market crisis story.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production

According to the Federal Reserve, "Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October; output is now reported to have risen at a faster pace over the period from June through October than previously published.

Draghi Now Has All the Ammunition He Needs for QE - Implementation Still a Problem

If Mario Draghi was lacking ammunition to initiate an outright quantitative easing program in the Eurozone, he certainly has it now. Even the staunchest opponents will have a tough time arguing against...

Rates May Stay at Zero Bound Longer with 2015 Dovish-Leaning FOMC

It is fair to say that the decisions made (and not made) by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have a tremendous influence on the behavior of the capital markets. Even though the FOMC is charged with adopting monetary policy that achieves maximum employment and...

Greece’s Snap Elections Increase Uncertainty About EU Future

It came as a shock to most, and certainly to markets, when Greek PM Antonis Samaras announced that presidential elections would take place on December 17th rather than in March 2015. Athens benchmark stock index fell 12.8 percent on Tuesday after the announcement late Monday...

My Reading of the FT on China’s “Turning Away From the Dollar”

The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients for my response. The authors, James Kynge and Josh Noble, begin...

Weekday Wrap-Up: No Hyperinflation, Years of Low Oil Prices, and a Bubble in Stocks

Matthew Kerkhoff at Dow Theory Letters explains how the banking system works and why QE never led to widely anticipated fears of hyperinflation; Joe Dancy says some of the smartest minds in the energy business believe oil may not get much above $75 for the next five years; and Peter Bookvar from the Lindsey Group warns...

Congress Has Guaranteed the Secular Bear Market Is Not Over

The cyclical bull market that began in 2009 has not ended. Enjoy it while it lasts because the long-term secular bear market that began in 2000 has also not ended. Secular markets are very long-term trends within in which cyclical market moves take place.

Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for December Surges

The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 93.8, a strong surge from last month. Today reading is a is a post-recession high and the highest level since January 2007, almost eight years ago.

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