Blog Profile / Financial Sense

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:8397
Posts / Week:30.6
Archived Since:February 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

Charles Bolin's Detailed Investment Outlook - Market Topping, Economic Data in Decline

This article is a supplement to a podcast for Financial Sense and provides an update to my outlook for the markets based on the Investment Model that I described in Seeking Alpha last month. The model consists of 37 Indicators and about 100 sub-indicators...

Cuddling and Egg McMuffins Show Economic Slowdown Underway

What do escorts and McDonald’s have in common? Both are responding to the end of economic growth, says Andrew Zatlin of Moneyball Economics. When times get tough and people are less willing to part with their money, businesses get creative. Zatlin tracks...

What the Greek Deal Does and Does Not Do

For investors, the most important thing about the favorable review of Greece's implementation of last year's agreement is that it effectively removes it from the list of potential disruptive factors in the coming quarters.

Gold Rush Losing Glitter

With Billionaires George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Singer and what seems like every analyst on the planet talking up Gold, what can go wrong? In fact, it’s impressive that the alleged “Smart Money” has also surged...

Why the Brexit Vote Matters to US Investors

Should the United Kingdom (UK) remain a member of the European Union (EU) or leave the European Union? That is the very question that will be put to UK voters on June 23. It's a big question that will inevitably invite...

Massive Jump in New Home Sales, 17-Sigma Event

New home sales surprised in a massive way this morning, blowing out all estimates to the high side. New home sales came in at 619,000 compared to a Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate of 523,000 at a seasonally...

The Ebb and Flow of Inventories

Ask ten economists what causes recessions, and you’re likely to get fifteen different answers. Some will point to supply or demand shocks, policy errors, inflation, or sticky prices, while others, such as Hyman Minsky, will point toward fragility caused, oddly enough, by stability.

Delinquency Rates Surge in 2016, Poised to Head Higher

New data on delinquency rates for commercial and industrial loans for the first quarter of 2016 has just been released and shows a surge heading into this year, after steadily rising throughout 2015. Based on forward-looking data, delinquencies may continue to increase well into...

A June Fed Funds Rate Hike Risks a September Economic Stall

Recent economic data, e.g., retail sales, housing starts and industrial production, suggest that the US economy has awoken from its winter slumber. In addition, growth in consumer prices has accelerated of late (see Chart 1).

Should Britain Leave the EU? Two Analysts Debate

One of the most important macroeconomic issues facing the world today is the looming June 23 vote in Britain regarding whether the UK should remain in the European Union. Today, we debate the pros and cons of a Brexit including the potential impact this may have...

This Is Not A Drill. This Is The Real Thing.

The June FOMC meeting is live. That message came through loud and clear in the minutes and was subsequently confirmed by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. Last week, via Reuters...

BCA: Global Equities Hanging By a Thread

The unintended consequences from the continued altering of the capital structure of firms, by issuing debt and retiring equity at a time when operating cash flow growth is showing signs of fatigue is disconcerting.

Market Bubbles

Market bubbles occur when the price of an asset significantly deviates from its intrinsic value. There have been numerous bubbles predicted in my 20 years as a professional investor. Fortunately, only two, from the perspective of US investors...

How the US Dollar Influences Oil Prices

Crude oil has reached a critical technical level, which is likely to test the resolve of the bulls to push prices higher. The bulls have a favorable tailwind with production outages reducing the supply glut. Till about two weeks ago, the drop in...

“Road Trains” Are Ready: Who Wins, and Who Loses?

Breathless news that driverless cars are poised to take over the roadways has so far left us skeptical—partly because we believe that the technological challenges to real-world implementation are higher than...

Davidowitz: Retailers in 'Survival Mode' as Headwinds Multiply

In a recent interview with Financial Sense, retail expert Howard Davidowitz called the widely-read report "absolutely crazy, because there’s no way those chains can return to their former numbers.” The massive store closings underway right now and the hundreds more to come...

Chicago Pension Liabilities Jump 168%, Understated by $11.5 Billion

New accounting rules show Chicago has understated its pension liabilities by $11.5 billion. At the end of 2015, the stated liability was $7.1 billion. Today it’s $18.6 billion. That’s a jump in net liabilities of 168%.

End of Debt Supercycle Means Low Rates for Years to Come

After an almost sixty-year long debt binge, expectations for above average economic growth or double-digit investment returns in the stock market aren’t realistic. Jim Puplava, Chief Investment Strategist at PFS Group and founder of Financial Sense, predicts at least six to eight more years...

Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold

There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally, it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.

Can Oil Prices Hold Onto Gains at $50 Per Barrel?

For the past few weeks, maintenance, sabotage, wildfire, strikes and rebel attacks have added to supply-side disruptions, as shown in the chart within. So now, everyone’s celebrating the disasters, and even ultra-bearish Goldman Sachs is...

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