Blog Profile / Financial Sense

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:7986
Posts / Week:32.2
Archived Since:February 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

Geopolitical Tension Tops Revised GDP

The major indexes are on track to for a weak open, with heightened geopolitical tension superceding the positive revision to the Q3 GDP growth pace. The Middle East is a complicated region in the best of the times and it has become even more so with the rise of ISIS and the entry of Russia in the...

What Does History Say About the First Rate Hike and Stocks?

Based on 30-day Fed fund futures prices, the CME Group estimates a 74% probability the Fed will raise rates in December after keeping them steady for years. From a historical perspective, the table below shows the dates when the Federal Reserve began to raise rates following a period of...

Richard Russell: The Passing of an Icon

It is with great sadness that we report the passing of Richard Lion Russell on Saturday, November 21. Richard wrote for Dow Theory Letters almost every day of his adult life, mailing the letter out faithfully every ten days to three weeks beginning in 1958...

Matthew Mather's Darknet Shows Reality Is Not Far From Fiction

Last week, Financial Sense interviewed Matthew Mather, a former tech CEO turned best-selling author of novels such as CyberStorm, Darknet, and most recently Nomad. Mather’s books explore the dark possibilities of new technologies, ranging from cyberwarfare...

Mission Accomplished

Federal Reserve policymakers have pretty much taken all of the mystery out of this next meeting. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, via Reuters, "In the relatively near future probably some major central banks will begin gradually moving away from near-zero interest rates...

Oil Jobs Lost: 250,000 and Counting, Texas Likely to See Massive Layoffs Soon

Crude oil just capped off a third straight week of declines, as WTI nears the $40 per barrel threshold. Goldman Sachs is once again raising the possibility of oil dipping into the $20s per barrel. That spells more pain for the energy sector. Many companies have already slashed spending and...

Is it Time to Get Defensive?

The S&P 500 is mostly flat for the year, but beneath the surface there has been a lot of movement. Some sectors, such as consumer discretionary, have pulled the major index up, while others are acting as a counterweight. The chart below shows YTD performance for each of the nine...

The Fundamental Truth of the Market Matter

When 2014 was coming to an end, we published our Market View for 2015. In that piece, we said our expectation for 2015 was that market gains would track closer to earnings per share (EPS) growth. At the time, analysts' average estimate pegged 2015 EPS growth at 8.8%, according to...

Obama to Veto Bill Requiring Background Checks on Syrian Refugees

In response to the Paris terrorist attacks, President Obama essentially said terrorists are welcome here. ABC News reports Obama Vows to Veto Bill Increasing Screening for Refugees. "President Barack Obama is vowing to veto a bill from House Republicans that would increase..."

Energy Storage Tech Finally Starting to Compete With the Grid

Critics of renewable energy always cite the fact that the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow. As such, the intermittency of renewable energy needs to be backed up by baseload power, which would need to come from natural gas, coal, or nuclear power.

Epsilon Theory: Two Discoveries

The world made two discoveries last week. Everyone is aware of the first discovery – that ISIS is not “a junior varsity team” but an able protagonist in what Pope Francis quite rightly calls “a piecemeal third World War”. Very few are aware of the second discovery – the existence of...

Paris, Sharm el-Sheikh, and the Resurrection of Old Europe

Soon after the Paris attacks, I picked up the phone to talk over the situation with my friend George Friedman. George is one of the truly world-class thought leaders on geopolitics. We had an animated 20-minute conversation. I didn’t particularly like what I heard.

Schengen Is Cracking – Can the EU Withstand the Pressure?

The Schengen agreement is one of four cornerstones of the European Union’s ‘Single Market’ system, but with the unprecedented migrant crisis flooding the region and fractures amongst member nations already spreading, will the pressure fragment one of the world’s most valuable markets?

US Real Estate: The Lay of the Land

Stocks and real estate both suffered sharp declines during the Great Recession, and both have recovered in the more-than-six years since the downturn officially ended. An examination of the forces driving the recovery of real estate returns, and a view of their trends, can also help...

US Corporate Earnings, Overseas Sales and the Dollar

How much of a headwind is international exposure causing US-based companies? Factset did a study earlier this month, drawing on a combination of companies that had already reported Q3 earnings and used estimated results for those who had not reported.

Has Deflation Been Defeated?

The last 15 years have been among the most turbulent on record. Since the year 2000, America has experienced two recessions (including a near depression), two stock market crashes, numerous selling panics, two terrorist attacks, and one of the slowest economic recoveries on record. Just when...

Experts See Low Oil Prices for Decades to Come as US Shale Boom Goes Global

A book was just released that is sure to be the talk of energy executives, investors, and academics around the globe. It is named by the no-hype title, The Price of Oil, where experts Roberto Aguilera and Marian Radetzki argue quite persuasively that the world is likely...

G20 Talks Dominated by Paris Attacks

Rather than focusing on impending economic issues, the Paris attacks overshadowed the G20 Summit this week as leaders discussed ways to counter the threat of domestic terrorism inspired by the Islamic State.

US Inflation: Setup to Upset

Is US inflation setup to upset the markets? Motivation for considering this question begins with graph to right. Plotted in that chart is the year-to-year percentage change for the median US CPI. That measure is calculated monthly.....

Is a Major Global Economic Recession on our Doorstep?

Slowing global economic growth has been cited as a major cause of stock market weakness this year. However, in his latest Big Picture podcast, Jim Puplava cited two main indicators that show the global economy is not about to fall off the cliff but is actually stabilizing...

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