Blog Profile / Financial Sense


URL :http://www.financialsense.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:7772
Posts / Week:32.9
Archived Since:February 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

September Macro Update

Our key message over the past year has been that (a) growth is positive but modest, in the range of ~3-4% (nominal), and; (b) current growth is lower than in prior periods of economic expansion and a return to 1980s or 1990s style growth does not appear likely.

Jobs Report Shouldn't Derail Fed Action

The jobs report came short of estimates, but the report’s internals are strong enough to keep the prospect of a Fed hike this month very real. The market’s initial reaction to the report reflects the view that this report takes us towards lift-off in the coming meeting.

No, China Is Not Crashing

Since a global stock market correction began to unfold about two weeks ago, financial headlines have brought forward a number of causes—seasonal weakness, fears surrounding the impending Fed rate rise...

Global Growth Tensions Reflected in Diverging Data Points

Confirmation of slower growth in China in August triggered further tumbling of global stocks on September 1st. The first of the month is when we get the Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) from Markit...

Financial Sector to Cut Credit Supply Lines for Oil and Gas Industry

More US oil and gas companies could come under financial distress in the coming months as crucial hedging protection begins to expire. Many companies had locked in high prices for their oil sales last year, allowing them...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Continued Growth at a Slower Rate

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 59.0 percent, down 1.3 percent from last month's 60.3 percent.Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 56.1 percent.

Europe Rethinks the Schengen Agreement

When France, West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg signed the Schengen Agreement in 1985, they envisioned a system in which people and goods could move from one country to another....

The China Slowdown: Who Loses in the Middle East?

Recent volatility in China’s stock market signals investors’ general skepticism about the economy’s prospects. However, Middle East oil exporters may stand to lose the most if the growth of Chinese oil consumption slows...

Signs to Watch for a Major Peak in Stocks and Impending Bear Market (Update)

So far, two of the three technical warning signs for a possible peak in the market have been raised. The most recent came in June as the market’s internal momentum failed to confirm the S&P 500’s new record highs. If past is prologue, the market will likely attempt...

Pettis: Chinese Debt-Related Shocks to Last for Years

With so much happening in China in the past month it seems that there are a number of very specific topics that any essay on China should focus. I worry, however, that we get so caught up staring at strange clumps...

Don't Overplay the Bounce

The major indexes have started today’s trading on a positive note, despite the soft(ish) labor market reading from payroll processor ADP (ADP). While some may attribute today’s bounce to Fed-centric hopes following...

Weapons of Economic Misdirection

GDP is far from the rather exact number most people think. There are lots of ways to measure GDP; and recently, what is not measured has been the cause for some controversy, at least among economists who care...

Chinese Firms Edging Out Samsung and Apple in the Smartphone Industry

Aggressive pricing and strategic partnerships drive China’s rising profile in the global smartphone market. It may not be long until “Made in China” becomes a mark of prestige. Smartphones may be a ubiquitous part of...

Markets and Morality

Economics is dubbed the dismal science because it studies scarcity. A question that predates human society is how should scarcity be distributed. Nature rewards the strong, the quick, and the cunning. Societies mitigate this...

California – A Deluge Followed by Mega Drought?

Both NOAA and the Australian Meteorologists issued El Nino updates in the past 24 hours. The weekly numbers that were released confirm that an historic event is...

“Fear Trade” Alert—Again

We are in the midst of the Fear trade again today… and China is again the culprit. This time it’s not that country’s stock market, but its all-important manufacturing sector. More evidence today that the market’s recent China-centric anxiety...

China PMI Contracts Fastest Since February-March 2009

By now it should be perfectly clear to everyone that the entire global economy is cooling and the US will not decouple from that slowdown. Nonetheless, most economists, including those at the Fed, still do not see the obvious.

Oversold Extremes and the Case for an October Low

Price patterns created by repetitive general psychological investor reactions to panics can be interesting and useful. Often these panics occur when there is no economic basis in reality. The Black Monday 1987 panic, the 1998 Asian Contagion panic and the Flash Crash...

US Economic Momentum Remains Positive

The US economy and especially the global economy have tremendous amounts of inertia. Once in motion, they cannot reverse course in a day, or over a few weeks. What can happen over the course of a day or a few days...

DeVoe’s Unprovable But Highly Probable Theories

For the College Humor Magazine I submitted a collection of many ‘laws’ and other items, including my College Course Descriptions: 1) If it’s green, wiggles or slithers, it’s biology; 2) If it stinks, it’s probably chemistry...

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