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Blog Profile / Financial Sense

Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:7353
Posts / Week:37.6
Archived Since:February 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

The Fed Concerned About “Importing” Disinflation

The latest Reuters poll is showing 24 out of 43 economists projecting the first rate hike in the U.S. by June of next year. The futures market is pricing liftoff by September. Citi's latest analysis puts it in December.

A Feast of Data This Week

Stocks today are expected to continue the positive momentum from last week, pushing the major indexes even deeper into record territory. Positive data out of Germany and more follow-through from China’s surprise rate-cut last week should help...

Russia Might Be Forced to Cut Oil Production

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak says Moscow is considering a possible cutback in oil production to help end the drop in prices, but there appears to be little it can do without harming its own energy sector.

Dr. Gary Small on "The Alzheimer's Prevention Program"

Financial Sense Newshour recently had the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Gary Small, a neuroscientist and expert on brain aging and health. Small says that although neurodegenerative diseases are becoming a growing problem for older Americans...

Global Economies Will Dictate Rate Hike Timing

The Federal Reserve spent this year winding down its $85 billion a month QE stimulus program. With that task completed, the hot topic of analysts, and concern of markets, is how soon the Fed will take the next step in moving back toward normal monetary policies.

U.S. Sees Record Foreign Inflows As Economic Indicators Reach Decade Highs

Latest net foreign inflows to U.S. markets came in the highest on record as incoming data suggests U.S. economic growth to accelerate. The Russell 2000 and the junk bond market also appear to be stabilizing.

Investor Sentiment in the Balance

As several market technicians have pointed out recently, price oscillators and sentiment indicators for the U.S. stock market point to an excessively “overbought” condition, both technically and psychologically.

Market’s Rally on Surprise Easing by China

Today’s market promises to be one of those nice global central bank-driven rallies that we have become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Chinese central bank is the main driver today, though positive commentary from Mario Draghi is also adding to bullish sentiment.

The U.S. Shale Breakeven Price Debate

Despite wide-ranging estimates, consensus indicates that some degree of U.S. shale oil production would be impacted at around current levels. Whether this translates to a mere slowing in the rate of oil production growth due to lower future investments...

Gold Jumps Above $1200 on China Rate Cut; Draghi Vows “More Inflation”

Gold prices popped to the highest level this month Friday lunchtime in London, trading back above the $1200 level after the People's Bank of China cut its key interest rate for the first time in two years.

Swiss Gold Initiative: Good Idea With Unintended Consequences

There is now a very interesting initiative on the Swiss ballot, which will require the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold 20 percent of its reserves in gold. The voters will decide on November 30. I won’t predict the vote, but I want to discuss the likely impact of a yes vote.

China Manufacturing PMI and Output Back in Contraction

Following a 5-month stint in positive territory, the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows Output contracts for the first time in six months.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in October

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for October is now available. The index rose 0.9 percent to 105.5. September was revised downward to 104.3 percent (2004 = 100). The latest number came in above the 0.6 percent forecast by

Notes on Russia

Russia and its redoubtable president, Vladimir Putin, have been much in the news lately. The latest flurry came when Putin was taken out behind the woodshed at the G20 conference in the Philippines last weekend over his recent moves to inject more Russian troops and arms into Ukraine.

Eurozone Moves in Wrong Direction, While the British Go Shopping and Japanese Exports Jump

There is plenty of data out today and it is generally reinforcing our three many thematic points: divergence, weak commodities, especially energy, and the slowing of the Chinese economy. This is helping the U.S. dollar and global bonds, but weighing on equities.

How Have Our Forecasts Played Out This Year?

As outlined on January 11th, we believed this year would again defy bearish forecasts and see instead: a positive gain for U.S. stocks, a strengthening dollar, lower commodity prices, and improving U.S. economic growth. Here’s how things have played out so far.

As the ‘Sanctions War’ Heats Up, Will Putin Play His Gold Card?

The topic of ‘currency war’ has been bantered about in financial circles since at least the term was first used by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010. Recently, the currency war has escalated, and a ‘sanctions war’ against Russia has broken out.

Trend Changes and the Dangers of Crying Wolf

Last week brought new all-time highs in the three major U.S. stock averages (Dow Industrials, Transports, and S&P 500) nearly every day, continuing the remarkable winning streak that began a bit more than 4 weeks ago and shown below...

Housing Data Broadly Mixed

Today’s housing data was broadly mixed, with Starts coming a shade below estimates and Permits a tad above consensus levels. The Starts weakness was primarily in the multi-family (or apartment buildings) category, which tends to be volatile on a month-to-month basis.

Forex Scandal Exposes Difficulty of Financial Regulation

The latest foreign exchange fixing (forex) scandal, which led to a $4.3 billion bank settlement with American, British, and Swiss regulators reinforces the difficulties of effectively regulating the financial markets.

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