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|Archived Since:||February 23, 2011|
As anyone knows who has tried in whatever way to opine on the financial markets, sometimes three of the most important words in the English language are the following, “I was wrong.” The second most important three words are “I don’t know.”
Barry Bannister, Managing Director of Equity Research at Stifel Nicolaus, joins Financial Sense Newshour to discuss whether to “Sell in May and go away” as well as the stark parallels between now and the 1930's.
Money matters — it’s a maxim of Prof. Milton Friedman that I repeat often in my columns. Since the Northern Rock bank run of 2007 — the "opening shot" of the financial crisis — the money supply, broadly measured, in the United States, Great Britain, and the Eurozone has taken a beating.
Last month, an unlikely pair of senators – Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, and David Vitter, a Louisiana Republican – introduced a non-binding resolution calling for the end of the implicit subsidies that “too big to fail” (TBTF) banks enjoy.
Let’s take a look at a few graphs of the dollar, from Feb 1, 2013 through Friday May 17, 2013. Yes, I said graphs of the dollar. I’ve priced the dollar in gold first (of course), then silver, the euro, and even the yen. The pattern is obvious. The dollar is going up.
Since we last reported on the current Global Recession, the Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI) rose for the month of March, but is following an atypical growth pattern coming out of recession, with a slope far shallower than the normal expected rebound.
The 2003-07 credit cycle provides an instructive template on how the current cycle may eventually play out.
Before taking even one step further, I’ll tell you right up front that this is more of a “for fun” discussion than not. For many a moon I have followed a number of sentiment surveys that I believe can be quite helpful.
The elusive bottom in Chinese stocks is becoming more constructive here with a higher low being put in, above the 200-day moving average. MACD signaled a buy in May and is moving into positive trend territory on the daily chart.
Both the Dow and S&P 500 were off slightly after the great run higher over the past few weeks. Things were quiet for much of the day. There was an attempt at a rally mid-day that failed to hold and the large averages sold off fractionally.
Investors have increased their appetite for risk as the market continues to climb to new highs. There was a tremendous amount of fear in April that growth was not going to be sufficient to maintain such lofty levels on the major averages. Economic data was beginning to surprise to the downside and many felt that a long awaited pullback was just around the corner.
CNBC had to be feeling good about itself last week. Not only did it have the pleasure of highlighting some dubious business practices employed by its competitor Bloomberg, it also had the good fortune of conducting the interview heard around the capital markets world last Tuesday.
Stocks may not do much in today’s session given the almost empty economic calendar, but the bias will likely remain to the upside.
Tepper stokes the melt-up. “I am definitely bullish. The budget deficit is shrinking massively. Guys who are short, they better have a shovel to get out of the grave.” Hedge fund manager David Tepper, CNBC, May 14, 2013
How will Russian President Putin's efforts to squeeze the nuclear energy sector affect the uranium market?
Based on both recent history and mainstream economic theory the past few years should not have been possible. When you cut interest rates to near-zero, run deficits of 10% of GDP and buy up every government bond in sight with newly created currency, you get a boom, end of story. That’s just the way capitalism works.
As someone once famously said, “Man does not live by bread alone.” The best arguments against free trade lead us away from economics toward the question of national sovereignty.
They aren't currency wars, they're "currency tensions." -Mohamed El-Erian. Either way, Japan is ruffling a lot of feathers as it exports deflation.
While we tend to focus more on the short and intermediate term, we notice that there is a lot going on in the long term time frame. Most obvious is the breakout above the top of a long-term trading range.
The gloom and doom 'big-picture' theorists swarmed out of the woodwork during the 2008 financial meltdown in reaction to the massive government bailout programs and stimulus efforts taken to prevent the collapse from worsening into a 2nd Great Depression.