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Blog Profile / Afraid to Trade


URL :http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
Filed Under:Business & Finance / Investing
Posts on Regator:767
Posts / Week:4.2
Archived Since:February 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

The Key Support Level Bonds TLT Must Hold to Prevent a Bearish Reversal

What support level must bond fund TLT hold or else trigger a breakdown/reversal event? Let’s start with the Daily Chart to highlight the structure and key level at play now: We’ll see the current trade level clearer on the hourly chart, but the first level to hold must be the current $111 price support level. A failure to [...]

Netflix NFLX and the July Breakout through Resistance

Like the rest of the market, Netflix shares (NFLX) continued their uptrend with a shattering of resistance into new all-time highs for July. Let’s start with the Daily Chart and note the breakout and updated levels to watch now: Note the divergent (momentum oscillator) reversal up off the $300 per share level in late April – it’s [...]

Updating the Breakout into Open Air for 3D Systems DDD

Last week I highlighted a “Tracking a Reversal and Breakout Opportunity for 3D Systems DDD” and this week, I wanted to provide an update as price moves through the Open Air pocket as expected toward the likely target. We’ll start with a quick recap of the Daily Chart and end with the Hourly Chart breakout in [...]

Charting Another Breakout in Volatile MannKind MNKD

Volatile stock MannKind (MNKD) crossed traders’ scans this morning with a breakout opportunity. Let’s take a look at the breakout set-up and note the key levels to watch for protection and profit: I highlighted three prior areas from the stocks’ journey higher in 2014 and you can compare the outcome. February resulted in a small breakout that reversed [...]

June 26 Bear Flag Stock Market Update and Scan

Today’s session resulted in another sharp sell-off and “flag” style retracement for the S&P 500. Let’s again highlight the updated structure and pay close attention to the key levels in play: Notice the three yellow highlights I’ve drawn. The...Show More Summary

June 25 GDP Surprise Market Update and Stock Scan

The S&P 500 is retracing the losses from yesterday’s Morning Bull Trap and afternoon collapse toward 1,950. Price is rallying up off the 1,950 pivot and we’re watching the current 1,955 level. Let’s highlight the updated structure and pay close attention to the key levels in play: After yesterday’s sell-off, we’re seeing a push back into the sell [...]

June 24 Rounded Reversal Intraday Trading Update

Well that was exciting! The S&P 500 initially triggered the alternate breakout (above 1,964) thesis to continue a surprise short-squeeze toward 1,968. Divergences undercut the high and price began a logical retracement lower that morphed into a market collapse and reversal of the bullish price action. Let’s highlight the new structure and pay close attention to the key [...]

Tracking a Reversal and Breakout Buy Signal Trade in DDD

A potential breakout buy (and short-term trend reversal) signal is developing in 3D Printing Stock 3D Systems (DDD). Let’s start with the Weekly Chart and focus our attention on the key price levels (and targets) to watch. The Weekly Chart shows a strong uptrend from 2012 until the January 2014 peak and sharp retracement back to the [...]

June 23 Intraday Trading Update and Stock Scan

After yesterday’s Fed Day surprise breakout, the market is taking a break and consolidating after yet another stellar upside rally. Let’s highlight the structure and pay close attention to the key levels at the moment: Our clear level to watch is the current 1,960 support zone of the prior high and earlier session low (yellow highlight). We do [...]

Friday June 20 Market Update and Stock Scan

After a continuation of the Fed-Day rally, stocks paused today in a consolidation range. Let’s take a quick moment to update our mid-day charts, hear the message of Breadth, and highlight our top trending stock candidates for the day. Today’s session saw additional Fed-fueled buying pressure from a short-squeeze already in motion. The index is divergent in momentum [...]

Trade and Price Pathway Planning for Amazon AMZN

With the recent announcement of Amazon’s new phone, shares initially surged but then retraced all the gains today. Let’s step above the noise and chart a bullish breakout pathway but also balance this expectation with the broader downtrend and potential breakdown bearish price pathway. We’ll plan trading strategies based on the current price levels and targets. Starting with [...]

June 19 Intraday Trading and Stock Scan Update

After yesterday’s Fed Day surprise breakout, the market is taking a break and consolidating after yet another stellar upside rally. Let’s highlight the structure and pay close attention to the key levels at the moment: The Fed-fueled rally resulted in a straight-up impulse toward 1,960 and the market has retraced gently down from this level. The key focal [...]

June 17 Intraday Trading Stock Scan and Market Update

While yesterday’s session developed a clear Range Day, today’s session is balancing on the edge of “Range Day” and Trend Day. Let’s pay close attention to the key levels and the bullish message from Breadth so far: Note the yellow highlight in the context of the rising “Bear Flag” or rising parallel trendline channel. It’s expected that price [...]

LULU Reveals a Valuable Lesson on Enormous Distribution Top Patterns

Traders are often drawn to reversal patterns, and Lululemon (LULU) gives us a textbook lesson in how to recognize and then trade reversal patterns as they develop. Let’s take a look at this large Distribution Top pattern and learn the lessons we can apply to similar situations in the future. Large scale price moves (the “Life Cycle”) [...]

June 16 Range and Stock Scan Intraday Trading Update

We’re seeing another Range Day develop so far in the market. Let’s update our intraday trading levels, scan breadth, and then pinpoint potential trend day trading stocks. I’m highlighting the recent TICK (internals) and Momentum Divergences that preceded reversals of the intraday price trend. The key to focus on now will be the dual negative divergence into the [...]

SP500 Riding the Upper Bollinger Band – New Environment

As traders, we’re constantly looking for changes in the trading environment especially when things that are less common or rare become more common. This is the situation we’ve been seeing with respect to the persistent rally in the market and how we study (and adapt to) what has changed. Let’s take a quick look at the S&P [...]

Daily and Weekly Updating Apple AAPL Retracement for June 16

Apple shares (AAPL) continued their breakout and bull trend impulse after the late-April gap breakout and May “bull flag” retracement. Let’s chart the current course for price, highlight the key support target, and update the trading strategies developing at the moment for Apple shares. We’ll start with the broader Weekly Chart perspective: For a bit of background, take [...]

June 12 Sell Swing Continues Midday Stock Scan and Update

Although it should be happening, it’s still surprising to see the market actually decline after the non-stop rally of the last week. We’re seeing a little ‘normalcy’ return to the market with yesterday’s and today’s sell days (Trend Days to the downside) so let’s update our levels, view Sector Breadth, and of course pinpoint the top [...]

June 11 Breakdown Sell Day Stock Scan and Update

We’re finally seeing some downside action! I was beginning to think that the market could only go higher but today returns us to a bit of normalcy. As I mentioned in yesterday’s mid-day update, any breakdown of the “Magnet” area near 1,947 would trigger a short-sell bias and we’re seeing not just the initial breakdown from the [...]

How Overextended is the SP500 Right Now in June?

I wanted to take a quick look at the current strong rally and objectively compare the degree the market is overextended now and how that compares with the past (particularly the 1999 rally). Let’s take a look at two S&P 500 Charts and plot the ‘overbought’ distance from trending moving averages. We’ll start with the Monthly Chart: The [...]

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