Blog Profile / PoliticalBetting.com


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Filed Under:Politics / UK Politics
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Archived Since:June 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

Betting on whether or not John Bercow will remain Speaker until next year

This morning I asked a few bookies to price up whether John Bercow will still be Speaker on the 1st of January 2018, Graham Sharpe of William Hill obliged with the above odds. After much consideration, I’ve decided to take the 5/1 on him not lasting until 2018, the tweets below are indication why. What […]

Stoke Central’s down to whether BREXIT’s a big enough issue for ordinary voters to come out an give LAB a kicking

This analysis feels right The following is a great series of Tweet’s on Stoke Central by the FT’s Sebastian Payne #2: Labour candidate might be avoiding the national media but local MPs are picking up the slack – particularly the pugnacious @RuthSmeeth — Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) February 6, 2017 #4: Paul Nuttall has motivated party's […]

Tonight’s cartoon on Trump

Cartoons by Helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard.

John Bercow says he will block Trump from addressing Parliament during the President’s State Visit

#BREAKING: John Bercow will oppose plan to let Donald Trump address parliament due to 'sexism and racism'https://t.co/Eme7D2U5SH pic.twitter.com/M5GkqEXwG2 — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) February 6, 2017 The Speaker was often a thorn in Cameron's side. Show More Summary

Brexit. There’s everything to play for

Embed from Getty Images My vantage point a couple of thousand metres up in the French Alps didn’t make Labour’s agonising over Article 50 any less depressing for me than it was for colleagues […]

The enthusiasm gap that spells doom for Corbyn and Labour

Tory voters love May whereas Labour voters are lukewarm towards Corbyn and that’s bad news for Labour explains Keiran Pedley On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast we unveiled some new data courtesy of Opinium. Respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with 6 statements related to Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. By […]

When Corbyn first became leader he said winning back Scotland would be a priority, SLAB are now in third place, 12% behind the Tories

New @Panelbase Scotland Westminster VI poll (changes since Sep 16) SNP 47% (-3) Con 27% (+6) Lab 15% (-1) LD 4% (-1) https://t.co/2lSOn4tOrb pic.twitter.com/qkEbaq90cF — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 5, 2017 From the graphic above, you can see how Scottish Labour have been eclipsed, a little over three years ago, Labour were polling 45%, now they […]

This may herald the departure of one of Corbyn’s staunchest allies, and maybe even Corbyn himself

If he's losing the support of Diane Abbott then the end is nigh for Corbyn. https://t.co/YDmVVSw0Pc pic.twitter.com/bqU6aCoOOk — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 4, 2017 If Corbyn’s losing the support of Diane Abbott then can the last Corbynite left please switch off the lights. Perhaps I’m being overly dramatic, but if Corbyn’s losing the support of Diane […]

Theresa May is still the only politician with a net favourable rating with the voters YouGov finds

YouGov’s latest favourable ratings follows the pattern from the end of November where Mrs May is the only politician with a net positive rating, her lead over Mr Corbyn has widened from 40% at the end of November to 46% now, mostly because Mr Corbyn’s ratings have moved from minus 35% to minus 40%, for […]

Corbyn is more in touch on Europe with the voters Labour needs to win back than his MPs or members

Embed from Getty Images Most of Labour’s lost voters are Leavers This has not been the best week for Jeremy Corbyn. He lost another Shadow Cabinet member and two other frontbench spokesmen, suffered a sizable rebellion on Europe (whereas, unlike one upon a time, the Tories presented an almost united front), prompting several thousand members […]

The Greens have the best YouGov party favourability ratings – Paul Nuttall’s UKIP the worst

As I indicated in last post I’m knocked out with after effects of a nasty cold and am feeling very sorry for my myself so won’t be doing much analysis. We’ve now the the latest YouGov favourability ratings and the net figures for the parties appear in the chart. The next section of the polling […]

More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continues

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham) result:LDEM: 66.0% (+50.4)LAB: 17.1% (-26.2)UKIP: 12.8% (-16.4)CON: 3.0% (-8.8)GRN: 1.0% (+1.0) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 3, 2017 So, tonight's council by-election results:Lab gain from UKIP.LDem gain from Lab.Con HOLD. Show More Summary

Local By-Election Preview : February 2nd 2017

(Uttoxeter) Town on East Staffordshire (Con defence, sitting councillor resigns their seat) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Labour 12, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative...Show More Summary

It’s blindingly obvious that Paul Nuttall is a scouser so why try to hide it?

I like this spoof English Heritage plaque which is doing the rounds in Stoke Central pic.twitter.com/tFJbR2xu9n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2017 Now Nuttall risks being disqualified as an MEP The last time an elected MP was kicked out by the courts was LAB’s Phil Woolas in 2010. The notorious leaflets his team produced […]

Lucian Fletcher on the latest Northern Ireland assembly poll

The heat is on… Exclusive insight on state of play for parties ahead of crucial March 2nd vote #AE17 @LucidTalk https://t.co/CpXUbu1rLR — The Sun (@TheSun_NI) February 1, 2017 Arlene Foster’s personal ratings fall through the floor, but the DUP will bank on fear of a Sinn Fein First Minister to keep their position as lead […]

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: May trouncing Corbyn in the polls and why we shouldn’t take the Northern Ireland peace process for granted

This week’s podcast is split into two parts. On the first part of the show, Keiran is joined by Nicholas Whyte to discuss the upcoming elections in Northern Ireland and the potential impact of Brexit on the province. Nicholas is an expert in politics and elections in Northern Ireland and a visiting professor at Ulster […]

Latest French presidential polling has one-time odds-favourite Francois Fillon failing to make the final two

As a Macron Backer I’d like to see other surveys showing same picture There’s no doubt what’s what’s become known as Penelopegate is having a big impact on assessments about who is going to win. The right-wing French Republican candidate has been dominating there polls and betting ever since he won the nomination in November […]

More data from today’s Trump visit YouGov polling

YouGov polling on how Brits would feel is measures similar to Trump's were brought in here. pic.twitter.com/732XOGj7Z2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2017 The YouGov "Should Trump's visit go ahead" poll – the party and referendum splits pic.twitter.com/qSIenZLwXd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2017 Tweet

First polling on Trump’s UK visit has 49% supporting and 36% opposing

Embed from Getty Images In spite of the massive petition against it and the huge furore and demonstrations within the last 48 hours new UK polling this morning finds that 49% telling a YouGov Times poll that the visit should go ahead with 36% saying it shouldn’t. That means that public appeared to be backing […]

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