Blog Profile / PoliticalBetting.com


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Filed Under:Politics / UK Politics
Posts on Regator:6083
Posts / Week:18
Archived Since:June 23, 2011

Blog Post Archive

Nick Robinson says the “very widespread expectation in Westminster is that Damian Green will resign in the next few days”

I’m smelling toast. https://t.co/LQg5efbbcU pic.twitter.com/yLRYCbhBmN — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 10, 2017 After her best week as PM, it might be back to the status quo for Mrs May. The Sunday Times are reporting that A male associate of Damian Green has approached the Cabinet Office inquiry into the conduct of the deputy prime minister and spoken […]

It is time to salute the brilliance of the visionary that is Diane Abbott

Another reminder not to dismiss seemingly outlandish political predictions A year ago this weekend Diane Abbott made this prediction Labour will be level-pegging with the Conservatives within a year, Diane Abbott has said amid more woeful polling for Jeremy Corbyn’s party. Labour slumped to fourth place in the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election this week, while […]

For the first time in over a year more people now think the Britain will be better off out of the EU than remaining

Controlling immigration seen as more important than free trade Fieldwork for the poll took place at the end of last week before this week’s events. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Why are the Eurosceptics not kicking up more of a fuss?

May looks set for an easier ride The Conservative whips are doing their job well. Evening after evening, the government records consistent majorities in the teens or twenties as it protects its Brexit Bill unamended through the Commons. More innovatively, we saw this morning a flurry of tweets and statements from Tory MPs and ministers […]

It is now five months since “right to Leave” had lead in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

Could this swing back following today’s deal? Ever since the referendum PB has been monitoring the regular tracker that has been issued at regular intervals by YouGov. The wording is in the chart above which seeks to show the trend since Britain voted to leave. What I have done is to take the average monthly […]

CON loses another seat to LDs in latest Local By-Elections

Newport on North Devon (Con defence) Result: Con 373 (37% -3% on last time), Lab 83 (8%, no candidate last time) Lib Dem 390 (39% +7% on last time), Green 159 (16% -12% on last time) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 17 (2%) on a swing of 5% from Con to […]

TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexit

The Brussels deal – the betting reaction Like all negotiations this one went right to the edge. Something had to be agreed by this weekend to ensure that things moved to the next stage, but both the EU and the UK have been flexible and Mrs. May can take some credit. The initial reaction from […]

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What do the DUP want? Will there be a united Ireland? Why do Survation have Labour +8 when others don’t? (and more)

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP really wants from Brexit negotiations, the role that Irish domestic politics is playing and will play moving forward plus a new poll apparently showing support in Northern Ireland for a united Ireland with EU membership. Also on the show, Keiran […]

New Northern Ireland poll finds more saying they’d prefer to join the Republic than leaving EU & remaining in UK

Northern Ireland's top pollster finds by small margin more people saying they'd prefer to join the Republic to stay in EU than to leave EU and stay in UK pic.twitter.com/viKBapmqYI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2017 The above findings by Northern Ireland’s leading pollster are quite dramatic because they suggest that a significant proportion […]

Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator

A Speccie headline I'd though we would never see. "Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum" https://t.co/QzNDjycoeN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2017 Ladbrokes 5/1 on EURef3 might be value The Survation MoS poll on Sunday had what was a surprise result the should there be another Brexit referendum question was […]

Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics

This’ll chime with a lot of people – right, left, leaver or remainer For the past two and a half weeks I have been semi detached from British politics being on holiday on the West Coast of the United States. I didn’t take my laptop and my main means of finding out what was happening […]

Ex-CON leadership favourite, DDavis, slips to just 6.6% chance on Betfair

Commons contempt moves start against Davis.@ChukaUmunna has written to the Speaker to initiate contempt proceedings against @DavidDavisMP for telling MPs in October Brexit impact assessments were being made, when in fact – according to Davis’s testimony today – no such risk assessments have been made — Robert Peston (@Peston) December 6, 2017 probably just […]

If the Brexit impact papers don’t exist what were the redacted papers that were made available a few weeks back?

The reputation of BrexSec DDavis takes another dive By all account this has been another extraordinary Brexit day. As well as TMay’s troubles with the DUP we have DDavis now saying the the impact assessment papers on 58 sections of the economy simply do not exist. This is crazy as this long Twitter thread makes […]

Moore remains odds-on favourite in Alabama even though the Dems are spending nearly ten times as much on TV ads like these

Will the big spending Dems campaign produce a sensation? The biggest current political betting markets in the UK are not about British politics at all. They were about the US with Trump’s survival being number one and the Alabama senate race, which takes place next Tuesday, number two. The latter has the advantage of being […]

In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

Put this on your “Christmas” list I’m just back in the UK after my holiday on the West Coast of the US visiting my son, Robert, and his family who have moved to LA from London in July. Part of my holiday reading was Betting The House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election by […]

Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

Picture: Latest Survation Scottish Westminster VI poll translated into seats Over the last day or so Survation have released their Scotland specific polling, and it presents get potential for Corbyn. Survation say If we input today’s published vote share figures into Baxter’s Scotland model, modelling today’s figures against the vote share the parties achieved at […]

Yippee ki-yay, The British public say Die Hard is NOT a Christmas movie

Only 31% of voters say Die Hard is a Christmas movie @yougov finds. Not surprising, The Empire Strikes Back has more snow in it than Die Hard. pic.twitter.com/E2e8RIqpNg — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2017 Die Hard is NOT a Christmas movie – 50% of Brits say a movie that takes place at Christmas but is […]

No deal, yet

"On a couple of issues, some differences do remain" – UK PM Theresa May on failure to reach deal with EU in #Brexit talks https://t.co/UEqjIb9s51 pic.twitter.com/b5OqkrAsXy — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 4, 2017 It's hard to see how this could have been handled any worse. https://t.co/FctHHEmzuE — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) December 4, 2017 Hearing […]

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