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Syria: overconfidence & tribalism

Almost everyone seems to have an opinion about whether (pdf) or not to bomb ISIL. Are they really all experts on the complexities of Syrian military and political affairs? Maybe not. There's another possibility: overconfidence. We tend to exaggerate our...

Osborne keeps the ball rolling on public spending

My regular column is available to subscribers on This is an excerpt. It is five days since the autumn statement and spending review but it is not too late to give credit to the man who made it...

Sovereign wealth funds in the new era of oil

As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. This column goes through the evidence, suggesting that the low price environment is likely to test the relationship between governments in oil-exporting countries and their sovereign wealth funds, at a time when spending is going up.

TPP unveiled

After more than five years, negotiations surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have finally been concluded. Yet, there is a lot that needs to be done before the agreement comes into force, and there is no certainty that it will. Show More Summary

National Front Leading Polls for French Regional Elections Dec 6, Dec 13; Center-Right Squeezed

French Regional Elections are coming up on December 6 and December 13. At stake are the presidencies of the 18 Regions of France. 12 Regions are on continental France, plus Corsica and 5 more overseas.The regions do not have legislative autonomy, but they do manage sizable budgets. Show More Summary

'Demand, Supply, and Macroeconomic Models'

Paul Krugman on macroeconomic models: Demand, Supply, and Macroeconomic Models: I’m supposed to do a presentation next week about “shifts in economic models,” which has me trying to systematize my thought about what the crisis and aftermath have and haven’t...

False Externalities

(November 28, 2015 02:20 PM, by David Henderson) However, increased consumption among youths leads to negative externalities. Raising the share of adults registered as medical marijuana patients by one percentage point increases the prevalence of recent marijuana use among adolescents and young adults by 5-6% and generates negative... (0 COMMENTS)

French Unemployment Rises Most in Three Years to Record Level

The recovery in France appears to have stalled already, and this is from employment data before the terrorist attacks. Via translation from Les Echos... The number of Class A unemployed rose by 42,000 last month. This is the largest increase in nearly three years. Show More Summary

A/A Testing

Typepad is not set up for A/B testing... But I have long been curious as to whether my front page should be my "Highlighted" posts only... So I am trying it for a week. Don't worry: you can get to the rest when you wish: A/A TESTING: HIGHLIGHTED ONLY | EQUITABLE GROWTH | ALL POSTS |

Weekend Reading: Paul Krugman (1997): Capitalism's Mysterious Triumph

Paul Krugman (1997): [Capitalism's Mysterious Triumph]( "SYNOPSIS: Communism failed because of an inability to provide a sustaining reason for existance; only under crisis could it work. >Recently...Show More Summary

A Powerful Intellectual Stumbling Block: The Belief that the Market Can Only Be Failed

[Over at Project Syndicate: The Trouble with Interest Rates:]( Of all the strange and novel economic doctrines propounded since...Show More Summary

Review of Ben Friedman's, "The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth": Hoisted from the Archives from Ten Years Ago/The Honest Broker for the Week of November 23, 2015

Hoisted from the Archives from Ten Years Ago: [Ben Friedman's, "The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth"]( Ten years ago my review of Ben Friedman's very nice _The Moral Consequences...Show More Summary

My Day by Eleanor Roosevelt, November 28, 1945

Eleanor Roosevelt: [My Day ]( >NEW YORK, Tuesday—The press this morning reports that Dr. Morris Fishbein, editor of the American Medical Association Journal, has called President Truman's plan for a national health program 'socialized medicine' at its worst. Show More Summary

Liveblogging the Cold War: November 27, 1945: George C. Marshall to China

["On Nov. 27, 1945,]( General George C. Marshall was named special U.S. envoy to China by President Harry S. Truman to try to end hostilities between the Nationalists and the Communists." Also: Roger B. Show More Summary

Liveblogging History: November 26, 1945: Savoy Records

Fernando Ortiz de Urbina: [Easy does it: November 26, 1945 at Savoy Records]( >Monday, November 26, 1945. Just another day at the office for the small independent Savoy Records label from New Jersey. Show More Summary

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