Persistently low investment is dragging down European economies. This column introduces a new study that examines the symptoms and explores the possible causes of this investment dearth. The study, a ‘Green Paper’ which seeks to delineate the issues and provoke reflection, is the first output of the Assonime-CEPR project ‘Restarting European Long-Term Investment Finance’.
In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote. Show More Summary
Russian central bank meets.
The Federal Reserve has an important role to play in ensuring the nation's financial system is resilient against cyberattacks, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said.
Some economists are betting Japan will slip back into deflation for a period in coming months as the effects of cheaper crude oil outweigh those of the weaker yen.
The anaemic recovery from the Global Crisis and the downward trend in real interest rates since 1980 have revived interest in the idea of secular stagnation. This column argues that if the US, UK, and Eurozone had not pursued contractionary...Show More Summary
The strategy of momentum investing says simply to buy stocks that are rising in value and sell those that are falling. Abnormal returns should be crowded-out, but have somehow remained remarkably persistent. This column explains theShow More Summary
To many observers, the long-lasting, underwhelming performance of growth, employment and investment suggests that something fundamental has changed with the way advanced economies’ macroeconomies are working. One leading explanationShow More Summary
The secular stagnation hypothesis has gained traction in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column argues that demography has played an important role in reducing the interest rates. The increase in life expectancy, which has not been offset by an increase in the retirement age, has led to an increase in the stocks of savings. Show More Summary
Joining international supply chains has help some developing nations industrialise while leaving others by the wayside. This column discusses research that extract lessons from four case studies. It suggests the key to success is combining...Show More Summary
Nowhere in the developed world is the secular stagnation more visible than in the Eurozone. This column explains this phenomenon with asymmetric external balances within the Eurozone. Southern counties had accumulated current-account deficits and became debtors when the Crisis hit, whereas the northern ones became creditors. Show More Summary
Banking activities have received increasing attention in the aftermath of the Crisis. This column focuses on the effects of bank portfolio choice on asset prices. The term spread is strongly influenced by banks’ expectations of their future profitability. Show More Summary
Seldom have well-credentialed and well-meaning people worked so hard to produce so little of substance.
Please read past the finger-wagging "private lenders are (barely) starting to come back to Greece, better not spook them" talk. This piece provides a useful overview of how the composition of lenders to Greece has changed over time. You can see how significant banks once were and how they were quiet deliberately displaced by various "official" creditors.
Charles Calomiris suggests that the Fed will probably need to raise rates this year: Furthermore, because the fall in energy prices is a positive supply shock, nominal GDP growth will not be reduced by the decline in energy prices; indeed, it is likely to accelerate going forward. That means real GDP growth will accelerate alongside […]
Reader rtd states “it is virtually guaranteed that after a nation’s business cycle trough, that same nation’s employment growth will display an upward trend.” I thought this an interesting enough assertion that it merited additional investigation. If one were looking at data in the US from the beginning of the nonfarm payroll series until the […]
By James Kwak This week I returned to one of my favorite topics: raising taxes, particularly on the rich. First I wrote an article for Medium about the single most obvious change that should be made to the tax code: … Continue readi...
Ukrainians Fighting UkrainiansForced military conscription (slavery is a better word) imposed on citizens of Ukraine has reached new heights recently. The government in Kiev now demands those forced into slavery to hand over their cars for military use. Show More Summary
Gnosis creates the "Stag Hunt" mosaic in the "House of the Rape of Helen" in Pella, Kingdom of Macedonia: Wikipedia: [Stag Hunt Mosaic](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_Hunt_Mosaic): >The Stag Hunt mosaic (c. 300 BCE) by Gnosis is a...Show More Summary
From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 3.5 percent on January 27, unchanged from January 21.From Nomura: Incoming data suggest that the economy grew at a slower pace in Q4 than the strong 5.0% growth in Q3. Show More Summary