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Comment on Q4 GDP and Investment: R-E-L-A-X

There are legitimate concerns about a strong dollar, and weak economic activity overseas, impacting U.S. exports and GDP growth. However, overall, the Q4 GDP report was solid.The key numbers are: 1) PCE increased at a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 (the two month method nails it again), and 2) private fixed investment increased at a 2.3% rate. Show More Summary

Disappointed by 2.6% Growth? Blame the U.S. Trade Deficit

The U.S. economy expanded a disappointing 2.6% in the fourth quarter—about half the summer’s blowout pace of 5%. What happened?

As US Growth Slows in Q4, Inflation Turns Negative

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that the growth rate of real GDP slowed to anannual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. That is barely half of the 5 percent rate reported for the third quarter, but still a bit above the 2.4 percent average growth rate since the recovery began in mid-2009. Show More Summary

Economists React to the Wages Report: ‘Still Quite Tame’

U.S. labor costs increased moderately in the final three months of the year, a sign that the improving job market is only slowly boosting wages for most American workers.

Fed’s Bullard Says Zero Rates No Longer Appropriate for U.S.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in a television interview on Friday that the U.S. economy remains on a solid path that argues for raising interest rates relatively soon.

Shake Shack shares more than double in stock market debut

New York-based burger chain raised $105 million, selling 5 million shares at $21 per share, more than had been expected

The CBO's forecast, with and without "austerity"

(January 30, 2015 10:38 AM, by Scott Sumner) After my previous post, commenters James (in London) and Jeff directed me to the official CBO forecasts of August 2012, with and without austerity: CBO's Baseline: Taking into account the policy changes listed above and others contained in current law,... (0 COMMENTS)

The New Normal (Bill Woolsey wins)

In a post written 7 months ago I predicted that 3% NGDP growth would become the new normal: It’s becoming increasingly clear that when the labor market recovers, RGDP growth will be very slow, maybe 1.2%.  Add in about 1.8% on the GDP deflator, and 3% NGDP growth looks like the new normal, assuming the […]

Will my job hurt my credit?

Your job isn't factored into your credit score, but it could still help or hurt your credit

The BS Storm is Coming on Trade Deals

Okay folks, get out those umbrellas, we are about to showered with all sorts of garbage as the corporate interests pushing for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact ((TTIP) go into overdrive to get Congress to approve their deals. Show More Summary

U.S. Workers Still Waiting for Wage Growth

U.S. employers aren’t yet getting squeezed by workers demanding higher wages.

Economists React to Fourth-Quarter GDP: ‘The Trend Is Improving’

U.S. economic growth slowed in the final months of 2014, highlighting challenges facing the U.S. expansion amid rising global uncertainty.

Final January Consumer Sentiment at 98.1

Click on graph for larger image. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 98.1, down slightly from the preliminary estimate of 98.2, and up from 93.6 in December.This was close to the consensus forecast of 98.2. Lower gasoline prices and a better labor market are probably the reasons for the recent increase.

"Most Americans Support Government Action on Climate Change, Poll Finds"

From the inbox: An overwhelming majority of the American public, including nearly half of Republicans, support government action to curb global warming, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times, Stanford University and the nonpartisan environmental research group Resources for the Future. In a finding that could have...

Ec 10 Guest Lectures

Above are the seven guest lecturers for ec 10 this spring. How many do you recognize? A first-class econonerd would recognize them all.

Greece Shows the Limits of Austerity in the Eurozone. What Now?

Mario Seccareccia, professor of economics at the University of Ottawa, has been outspoken in his warnings that austerity policies have the potential to smash economies and spread untold human misery. He has challenged deficit hawks and...Show More Summary

Inequality, non-linearities & growth

Might there be a non-linear relationship between inequality and growth? A new paper suggests so. It finds that "there is a range of values of changes in inequality where the link [with GDP growth] is weak", but that big reductions.....

U.S. Fourth-Quarter GDP – At A Glance

U.S. gross domestic product advanced 2.6% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Super Bowl 2015: Watch the ads

Check out our gallery of Big Game commercials, then vote for which you think scores as Super Bowl XLIX's best

GDP: Economy grew 2.6 percent in fourth quarter

Latest Commerce Department figures show a slowdown from the third quarter's strong 5 percent growth

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