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Fencing In Canada

Wisconsin Governor and potential presidential candidate Scott Walker apparently thinks it is not an unreasonable idea to consider building a wall between Canada and the United States in order to secure his country’s borders from security threats. Now, to be...

Fed Minutes Are Minutia Except For One Critically Important, Widely Ignored Detail

This post is an excerpt from the Pro Trader and Monthly Investor MacroLiquidity report. Subscriber links are below the text. The Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes are a key instrument of official propaganda on how the Fed wants you to view policy. Show More Summary

Buying Puts for Years?

(August 30, 2015 04:50 PM, by David Henderson) In a response to, I think, me, although he doesn't make it clear whether he's responding to me, Robert P. Murphy writes: I realized from Levi's comment that people are genuinely misunderstanding what I was trying to say in that... (0 COMMENTS)

Fed Opacity is Suffocating the Markets

Fed Opacity is Suffocating the Markets Market observers continue to give short shrift to the fact that the Federal Reserve is the perpetrator of the "Red Wedding" in the markets. The Federal Reserve doesn't trust the markets. It thinks...Show More Summary

U.S. tight oil production decline

U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated. Oil companies have cut back spending significantly in response to the fall in the price of oil. The number of rigs that are active in the main U.S. tight oil producing regions– the Permian […]

Cost of PUTs on Shanghai Index Hits Record vs. Calls; Sentiment vs. Valuation

In spite of the recent plunge on the Shanghai index, as recently as August 24, CALL options on the index were more expensive than PUT options.This Bloomberg headline "If the Options Market Is Right, China's Stock Rescue Is Doomed" reads like something one would find in a tabloid, but the reverse is now true. Show More Summary

'Is China's Devaluation a Game Changer'

If you can't get enough on China, here's more from Cecchetti & Schoenholtz: Is China's devaluation a game changer?: Since 1978, China has engaged in an unprecedented and wildly successful experiment, moving gradually from a command economy to one based...

Vehicle Sales Forecast for August: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again

The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Tuesday, Sept 1. Sales in July were at 17.5 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in August will be over 17 million SAAR again.Note: There were 26 selling days in August, down from 27 in August 2014 (Also note: Labor Day is not included in August this year). Show More Summary

Ben Stein on who's to blame for stock market woes

The "Sunday Morning" commentator says experts and politicians who blame China for the U.S. stock market's recent downturn are missing the point.

Pop Monetary Economics

Paul Krugman has an excellent post demolishing the following claim by William Cohan, in the NYT: The case for raising rates is straightforward: Like any commodity, the price of borrowing money — interest rates — should be determined by supply and demand, not by manipulation by a market behemoth. Essentially, the clever Q.E. program caused […]

A nice summary on secession

(August 30, 2015 07:18 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Tim Sablik has an interesting literature review on secession on the Richmond Fed's "EconFocus." Sablik presents research relevant to the issue, including Alesina and Spolaore and Buchanan and Faith. He also deals with contemporary secessionist communities - like Catalonia and... (0 COMMENTS)

Economic prosperity breeds trust

Economists have been exploring the relationship between prosperity and trust since the 1950s. This column explores the possible relationships, arguing that enhanced economic prosperity acts as a signal that fellow citizens are trustworthy. Show More Summary

The world struggles when the trade winds don't blow

My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It has been a nasty scare, and it is not yet over. Though I think they are overstated, the doubts about China will persist. Though the...

'The Case for Realism in the Social Realm'

Daniel Little: The case for realism in the social realm, Understanding Society: The case for scientific realism in the case of physics, microbiology, and chemistry is a strong one. The theories of physics, biology, and chemistry postulate unobservable entities, forces,...

CalPERS’ Private Equity, Exposed: Executive Summary

Senior private equity professionals at CalPERS do not understand the economics of private equity funds, raising questions about the staff's competence.

Perry Mehrling: Defending the RMB

It’s hard to short China, but not so hard to short China’s currency, and that’s a problem for the central bank.

Bad behaviour and early school leaving

Early school leaving and criminal behaviour are important social problems. This column argues that delinquency and arrests both lead to early school leaving. The findings show that the overall reduction in education due to delinquency is at least as large as the reduction due to arrest. Show More Summary

Urban Carmel’s Weekly Market Summary

Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices will often jump 10% or more higher and also attempt to retest the lows.  Volatility will likely remain elevated for several months. Show More Summary

US Employers Lobby for More Legal Tech Worker Immigration to Drive Down Wages

Claiming that they can’t find the talented workers they need in the American workforce, tech companies have frequently hired H-1Bs – and continually lobbied for more – simply in order to drive down wages and therefore boost their profits. The...Show More Summary

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