Global politics of late has been marked by the rise of anti-elite political movements and anti-establishment leaders. This column analyses the tactics of such populists through the lens of the ‘time inconsistency’ problem – that what is considered a long-term optimal policy today may not be optimal when that future arrives. Show More Summary
The Trump administration intends to restructure US international trade relations with its major trade partners to correct what it perceives to be unfair trade and establish a ‘level playing field’. This column uses a structurally estimated...Show More Summary
Today's Water Cooler: Roy Moore, Trump/Bush analogy, DSA, national activity, Tesla Semi debacle?, Facebook traffic, blockchain, Keystone, IP
The question: How does capitalism end?
Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for...Show More Summary
From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at October 2017 Mortgage Data: National Delinquency Rate Sees Second Consecutive Annual Rise as Impact from Hurricanes Continues • October’s 4BPS increase in the national delinquency rateShow More Summary
Here’s Tim Duy at Bloomberg: It was supposed to be easy. When the Federal Reserve started hiking the federal funds rate, longer-term interest rates would rise. After all, they were at very low levels, restrained by a low-term premium. The “Greenspan conundrum” of the past two cycles, when long rates failed to respond in line […]
People used to say that a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged. I wonder if the same sort of principle applies to progressives who have been elected governor, and assume responsibility for the health of their state’s economy: Here’s New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: New York will be destroyed if the deductibility of state […]
Yet more sobering Brexit sightings.
A new study on unemployment confirms decades of research showing that people are happier when they work, even if they have an income.
Would a Norway sovereign wealth fund divestiture from fossil fuels be a tipping point among investors?
Economists have studied extensively the direct impacts of natural disasters on local labour markets, but less is known about the knock-on consequences for wider markets. This column argues that although supply chain disruptions caused...Show More Summary
There is little doubt that one of the main causes of the Global Crisis was excessive risk-taking by large international financial institutions. This column argues that the combination of very high leverage and limited liability continues to incentivise risky behaviour by bankers. Show More Summary
Chris Whalen posted an interesting articile this morning entitled “Is Multifamily Lending a Threat to US Banks? The post Is Multifamily Lending a Threat to US Banks? (Fed Froth, Not Safety And Soundness, Is The Problem) was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!
Behavioral biases come in all shapes and forms. Many of these, however, relate to the issue of imperfect information (e.g. asymmetric information, instances of costly information gathering and processing that can distort decision-making,...Show More Summary
Fed Study Says San Francisco Fed research blames low inflation, neutral rate The post This Flat Yield Curve Is No Greenspan Conundrum (Low Inflation Prevails) was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!
The price of gold last week reached its highest level in one month. The post Why the Price of Gold Could Push Higher from Last Week’s 1-Month High was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!
In the context of the ongoing Chinese debt bubble crisis (yet to explode into a full crisis, but the timer is ticking ominously), The post Wait till rates normalization hits the property markets was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!
...or, especially, after-tax real median growth. Or even 2%-ile income growth. Let alone well-being after cuts in public services. You just can't. It doesn't add up at any level. As a matter of arithmetic... Just too much of existing capital income flows to foreigners. Show More Summary
From the Federal Reserve: Janet L. Yellen will step down as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective upon the swearing in of her successor as ChairJanet L. Yellen submitted her resignation Monday as...Show More Summary