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Make globalisation more inclusive or suffer the consequences

Despite lifting millions out of poverty, globalisation is facing growing political opposition. This column surveys the successes and failures of globalisation, and some of the critical policy implications. Globalisation has reached a stage where its benefits have been captured but its costs have been largely ignored. Show More Summary

TMacropru's fatal flaw

Political risk is a major cause of systemic financial risk. This column argues that both the integrity and the legitimacy of macroprudential policy, or ‘macropru’, depends on political risk being included with other risk factors. Yet it is usually excluded from macropru, and that could be a fatal flaw.

Hitler, Stalin, Khomeini, Putin . . . Trump

Here’s The Donald: ‘To be on the cover of Time as Person of the Year is a tremendous honor,’ Trump said. Facepalm. PS.  At least they gave him devil horns. PPS.  Very different people, but similar chairs:

Please, just stop

Stop complaining that I should go back to doing macro posts. I never stopped. Most are now at Econlog, but if you are too lazy to click over that’s your problem. I still do more macro blogging than almost any other blogger. I did two macro posts there just yesterday, I’ll do another later today. […]

A Different Kind Of Housing Disaster- No Cushion From Falling Rates

The ho hum drumbeat in the ever increasing number of low paying jobs that won’t support a family without having four of them, goes on. That’s that for my jobs post this month. Actually, I will get back to this subject, even if I can’t...Show More Summary

Time Bomb Ticking For the Great Bear Market Ahead

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) is a committee of Primary Dealer bigwigs that works closely with the US Treasury to estimate the Treasury’s quarterly debt needs. Its recommendations are published every February, May, August, and November. Show More Summary

New Home Sales Data Says This Is The Beginning of The End

Yesterday I reported that the sky may not be falling for new home sales yet, but that the dawn of destruction should show up in the November data. I mentioned that there’s a treasure trove of additional data in the Commerce Department’s New Home Sales release that paints a very grim picture. Show More Summary

WSJ Loads New Home Sales Report With Excuses

In a vintage display of excuse making, the Wall Street Journal went off the deep end last week trying to justify and deny just how terrible the new home sales headline number was. Read the rest of this post and all of Lee Adler’s Daily Data Dives at David Stockman’s Contra Corner. Show More Summary

Case Shiller National This Old House Index Hides The Danger In Housing Market

The Case Shiller Index for September 2016 was reported today, telling us what we already knew from 5 months ago. In fact, we knew it and reported it not 5 months ago, but 18 months ago, when it actually happened. Median existing home...Show More Summary

The Hidden European Banking Crisis That Could Destroy The US Markets

The European banking collapse paused in October with a minor uptick in total deposits. In addition there was a massive, mysterious revision of the figures from earlier this year. In the data released in late October, September deposits had plunged below the 2015 low, suggesting that a crash had begun. Show More Summary

Goldman Sachs’ Covert Scheme to Raise Oil Prices

Goldman now tells you that higher fuel costs for businesses and consumers are actually good for global growth. The post Goldman Sachs’ Covert Scheme to Raise Oil Prices was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Ahead of European Central Bank AnnouncementMortgage rates moved moderately lower today, as financial markets positioned themselves for an important announcement from the...Show More Summary

Trouble In Trump World—Too Many Generals When The Pentagon Is The “Swamp”

We have a simple thesis that is being reinforced by each new appointment or policy utterance of the nascent Trump Administration. Namely, there's going to be a fiscal bloodbath in 2017, not a giant Trump Stimulus. And it is in the vasty...Show More Summary

Annual Employment Gains some early thoughts on 2017

I'm starting to look at my 10 economic questions for 2017 (something I do every year).Last year I thought the unemployment rate would be 4.5% in December 2016 (the rate fell to 4.6% in November), and that the economy would add around 200,000 jobs per month (down from 2014 and 2015). Show More Summary

Addicted To Gov? Fannie, Freddie and the 30 Year Fixed-rate Mortgage

With President-elect Trump’s choice of Steven Mnuchin, the time may have come for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to leave the clutches of their regulator the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The post Addicted To Gov? Fannie, Freddie and the 30 Year Fixed-rate Mortgage was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

Why the Feds Protect Some Towns From Flooding and Leave Others Exposed

That a flood is coming for the American coast is obvious. But to understand which towns and neighborhoods might be spared the cataclysm, look at two recent disputes between inland communities and the Army Corps of Engineers, which builds...Show More Summary

The Trouble with DTI as an Underwriting Variable

Richard Green: The Trouble with DTI as an Underwriting Variable--and as an Overlay: Access to mortgage credit continues to be a problem. Laurie Goodman at the Urban Institute shows that, under normal circumstances (say those of the pre-2002 period), we...

A Primer on Equilibrium

This is by David Glasner: A Primer on Equilibrium: After my latest post about rational expectations, Henry from Australia, one of my most prolific commenters, has been engaging me in a conversation about what assumptions are made – or need...

Temp agency faces discrimination suit from black job seekers

The African-American plaintiffs allege that MVP Staffing systematically placed Hispanics over blacks

1776 Was More About Representation than Taxation

Jen Deaderick at the NBER Digest: 1776 Was More About Representation than Taxation: "No taxation without representation" — the rallying cry of the American Revolution — gives the impression that taxation was the principal irritant between Britain and its American...

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