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Blood and Souls for My Lord Arioch! It Is Cold!

Liveblogging from Beneath My Electric Blanket: If you think I am going to leave this room today, you are wrong:

Video: Is Deflation Returning to Japan?

As global deflation worries spread, new Japanese data Friday show the difficult central banks face in battling that affliction.

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Still Seeking Blastoff

Japan needs a surge of power to blast its way out of deflation's gravitational pull, Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said, after the release of new data showing the country was actually falling backward.

Credit supply and the housing boom

There is no consensus among economists on the forces that drove the historical rise of US house prices and household debt that preceded the Global Crisis. In this column, the authors argue that the fundamental factor behind that boom was an increase in the supply of mortgage credit. Show More Summary

Recession is On the Way: Questioning One's Sanity; Beat the Crowd, Panic Now!

In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened.50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Show More Summary

Grand Central: That Didn’t Go Well, Madame Chair

Jon Hilsenrath sees a disputatious encounter between Janet Yellen and the House Financial Services Committee as a sign that the Fed has a fight on its hands.

How Gaza’s Natural Gas Became the Epicenter of an International Power Struggle

Guess what? Almost all the current wars, uprisings, and other conflicts in the Middle East are connected by a single thread, which is also a threat: these conflicts are part of an increasingly frenzied competition to find, extract, and market fossil fuels whose future consumption is guaranteed to lead to a set of cataclysmic environmental crises.

Totally Conventional Views Which I Hold

(February 27, 2015 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) As soon as Tyler posted his "Totally Conventional Views Which I Hold," I felt the urge to do the same. In no particular order:1. Most academics are out of touch with the real world and have little useful to say... (0 COMMENTS)

Sin seems to be its own reward

Feb 25 (Reuters) – Virtue in investment terms may be its own reward, but the evidence shows sin pays better. Shares in industries with unsavory associations such as alcohol, tobacco and gambling have long-term track records of outperforming the rest of the market. Maybe this is to compensate for the risk of regulation. Maybe it […]

India benefits from reform and a bit of luck: James Saft

Feb 24 (Reuters) – Titularly now the fastest-growing major economy, India, having left China behind, is positioned for a good year, both in its economy and financial markets. India’s 7.5 percent clip of economic growth has edged out China’s 7.3 rate on the most recent readings, making it the fastest grower among the 20 major […]

Links on SYRIZA-Eurogroup Agreement

Links on Greece:  Now that the Syriza government has reached an agreement with the powers that be in Europe to extend its bailout for four months, there seems to be a lot of disagreement about how to assess it, even among commentators … Continue reading ? The post Links on SYRIZA-Eurogroup Agreement appeared first on Dollars & Sense Blog.

Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales

The following important older post on inflation from Professor Krugman explains why I follow various measures of underlying inflation: Core Logic[T]he idea of core inflation. Why do we need such a concept, and how should it be measured?So:...Show More Summary

Mission creep

(February 26, 2015 07:06 PM, by Scott Sumner) During periods where there is an enormous demand shortfall, such as the 1930s and the period after 2008, there is a resurgence of interest in demand-side models. This is good. But it also produces an unfortunate side effect---mission creep. Demand... (1 COMMENTS)

Liquidity risk and systemic banking crises

A minor adverse shock to financial markets can be propagated by liquidity strains, leading to a major crisis. This column suggests a novel measure to address systemic liquidity risk – a Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer, which would require...Show More Summary

Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks

Little is known about how adverse shocks spread through production networks. This column presents quantitative evidence on inter-firm contagion using natural disasters as exogenous instruments. Adverse shocks to upstream suppliers lower sales growth and valuation of a downstream firm.

Jewish persecution and distrust in finance

Discrimination can be costly for both victims and perpetrators. This column uses the variation of historical Jewish persecution across German counties to proxy for localised distrust in financial markets. Persecution reduces the average stock market participation rate of households by 7.5%–12%. Show More Summary

Fiscal multipliers and Eurozone consolidation

The literature on fiscal multipliers has expanded greatly since the outbreak of the Global Crisis. This column reports on a meta-regression analysis of ?scal multipliers collected from a broad set of empirical reduced form models. Multiplier estimates are signi?cantly higher during economic downturns. Show More Summary

(Not) The Leader of the Pack, Again: Wisconsin and Her Neighbors

Political Calculations criticizes me for comparing Wisconsin economic performance against Minnesota, but not other neighbors. Normally, we’re entertained by Chinn’s analysis, since it frequently involves comparisons of the job growth...Show More Summary

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