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Wednesday: Housing Starts

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.170 million SAAR, up from the May rate of 1.092 million.• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Waiting For The Other Shoes To Drop

The Fed’s balance sheet and US banking indicators remain in the calm before the storm. Or to borrow another cliché, we’re waiting for the other shoes to drop. There are two of them. One will be when the Fed commences actual balance sheet reductions. Show More Summary

When You Stop Reading After The Second Sentence

On June 27, ECB President Mario Draghi opened that central bank’s international conference in Sintra, Portugal. Most media never made it past the first two sentences of his prepared remarks. For them, the verdict was already delivered in those few lines. Show More Summary

Bank Earnings & Fed Chairs

Earlier this week we appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” to talk about bank earnings and the Fed.  The results from the top-four banks – Bank America (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) – are really...Show More Summary

A Decade of Fallacy

Ten years ago yesterday, Bear Stearns sent a letter to shareholders of two specific hedge funds that it sponsored. Whenever anyone brings up the name now, you immediately know where this is going. That wasn’t the case in 2007, however. Show More Summary

Taxing Businesses: Pass-through businesses

Part one of my series: Taxing Businesses In my earlier post on the number of returns and net income by business structure, you can see the share of business returns filed by C corporations has dropped 16.6% to 4.9% 1980-2012 with pass-through businesses filing the majority of business returns. Show More Summary

Podcast: Trumponomics

Simon Long delves into what Donald Trump means for taxes, growth and trade. Also: the markets react to Emmanuel Macron's election victory in France and China develops its first large passenger jet

Murder: A Socratic Dialogue

(July 18, 2017 04:28 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Glaucon: Have you heard the news, Socrates? A scimitar-wielding Persian maniac just cut down three Corinthians in cold blood.Socrates: A ghastly crime. But why are you telling me? Glaucon: Because it just happened! Socrates: So I gathered. Glaucon: In Corinth! That's... (0 COMMENTS)

Podcast: Another pay rise?

Callum Williams joins presenter Simon Long to examine the merits of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal for a £10 minimum wage. The Chinese investors who idolise American billionaire Warren Buffet. Why a gender gap among Economics students could cause problems down the road

This Expansion Will End in a Fizzle, Not a Bang

Tim Duy: This Expansion Will End in a Fizzle, Not a Bang: The Fed is growing increasingly concerned that this expansion will end like the last two, with a collapse in asset prices that brings down the economy. That concern...

Enough to Buy Back the Product

(July 18, 2017 01:41 PM, by David Henderson) I was on an email discussion this morning with some free-market economists and some economically literate fans of free markets. One of them surprised me with this statement: I always tell my students the Henry Ford $5 a day... (5 COMMENTS)

Housing and Policy

The NAHB Builder confidence survey declined this morning (although still solid), and the NAHB blamed the rising prices, especially for lumber. As Diana Olick noted on CNBC: Builder confidence jumped 6 points from November to December...Show More Summary

Obamacare’s Future Now Depends on an Unhappy White House

President Trump has said he’d like Obamacare to fail, and the Department of Health and Human Services has advertised its failures.

Europe's Post-World War I Crisis Through the Lens of the Life of John Maynard Keynes: Hoisted from Ten Years Ago

Hoisted from Ten Years Ago: Europe's Post-World War I Crisis Through the Lens of the Life of John Maynard Keynes : World War I makes it impossible to be a liberal believer in progress, peace, rationality, equilibrium, the benevolence of the market, the triumph of reasoned discussion, et cetera. Show More Summary

2:00PM Water Cooler 7/18/2017

Today's Water Cooler: Portland meetup, the Obama Library, Democrat corruption, housing market, soil contamination, Detroit techno

The Controversy That Finally Killed the Senate Health Care Bill

The Senate health care bill appears to be dead—done in by the Republican Party's inability to agree on a basic philosophical question: Should healthy Americans have to subsidize the sick? This is the quandary that has dogged GOP lawmakers throughout their entire attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Show More Summary

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 64 in July

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 64 in July, down from 66 in June. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder...Show More Summary

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