Matt Yglesias is back from his honeymoon, and better than ever. But I’m not completely sold on this argument:
Here’s a fun Intrade price anomaly that showed up this morning. The markets indicate that there’s more than a 3 percent chance that neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney will win the presidential election. That’s [...]
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---WSJ has perhaps the definitive story on what caused the market crash last Thursday. So who is to blame? Nassim Taleb, Mr. Black Swan himself. Felix Salmon, Reuters' uber blogger, thinks pinning the drop on Taleb is poppycock. I... Read Post
A poll of former Supreme Court clerks found that 57 percent think the individual mandate will be overturned — up from 35 percent before the oral arguments. The InTrade political betting markets put the odds of an overturn at 76 per... Read Post
It has become highly fashionable to talk about “black swans” since the crisis began in 2008 and now even Scott Sumner has talked about it in his recent post “Don’t forget about those black swans.” Scott's headline reminded me how mu... Read Post