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Don’t forget about those black swans

Matt Yglesias is back from his honeymoon, and better than ever.  But I’m not completely sold on this argument: Here’s a fun Intrade price anomaly that showed up this morning. The markets indicate that there’s more than a 3 percent chance that neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney will win the presidential election. That’s [...]
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Of course the Supreme Court is political

Business & Finance : Ezra Klein (3 years ago)

A poll  of former Supreme Court clerks found that 57 percent think the individual mandate will be overturned — up from 35 percent before the oral arguments. The InTrade political betting markets put the odds of an overturn at 76 per... Read Post

Seriously People, It's Time To Stop Talking About Black Swans

Business & Finance : Business Insider: Money Game (3 years ago)

It has become highly fashionable to talk about “black swans” since the crisis began in 2008 and now even Scott Sumner has talked about it in his recent post “Don’t forget about those black swans.” Scott's headline reminded me how mu... Read Post

Matt Yglesias is wrong: It’s way better to be hot than cold

Business & Finance : Ezra Klein (11 months ago)

Over at Slate, Matt Yglesias argues that "as unpleasant as extreme cold can be, it is much much much less bothersome than extreme heat." His argument? That you can manage the cold by putting on more clothes. But you quickly run out ... Read Post


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