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Do stock markets respond to political prediction markets?

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during Election Day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release […] The post Do stock markets respond to political prediction markets? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
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