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How We’re Forecasting The Presidential Election

The HuffPost presidential forecast model uses state and national polls from the HuffPost Pollster database to predict who will become the next commander in chief of the U.S. The process averages the polls, estimates the probable outcome in each state and then calculates the likelihood that the leading candidate wins more than 270 electoral votes on Nov. 8. Step 1: Poll Averaging We estimate the probability of a win in each state’s presidential race by using Pollster’s Bayesian Kalman filter model to average publicly available polls in the HuffPost Pollster database.
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