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History is No Longer an Accurate Guide to the Future

We have become accustomed to presuming that what has happened in the past will give us a good idea of what may happen in the future, whether in determining insurance premiums, stock market movements, or the outcome of political referendums. That is changing, however. As has become evident in so many ways over the past two decades, we can no longer count on historical performance to serve as a guidepost to the future.
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