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Fed Economic Letter: "What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?"

From economist John Fernald at the San Francisco Fed: What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?This Economic Letter argues that the new normal pace for GDP growth, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, might plausibly fall in the range of 1½ to 1¾%. This estimate is based on trends in demographics, education, and productivity. The aging and retirement of the baby boom generation is expected to hold down employment growth relative to population growth.
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