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How bad is it for Donald Trump? Let's do the math

Even before news broke this weekend about Donald Trump’s 2005 Access Hollywood tapes, he had been receiving some extremely bleak polling numbers. As of today, Trump trails Hillary Clinton by 9 points in Virginia, by 8 points in Pennsylvania, by 6 points in Colorado, by 4 points in Florida, and by 3 points in North Carolina. When we run all of these polls though our presidential forecasting model, it predicts that Trump has less than a 10 percent chance of winning the presidency.
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