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The great normalisation of global trade

Exceptionally weak global trade growth over recent years has presented a puzzle to academics and policymakers alike. This column argues that it may have been the past strength of trade that was exceptional, rather than the subsequent slowdown. The recent deceleration of trade growth can thus be seen as a ‘great normalisation’. The important implication is that an upturn in aggregate demand will not necessarily lead to a significant recovery in global trade.
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