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The Run-Up: Is This Election Over?

We talk numbers with Nate Cohn, a reporter for The Upshot and our most trusted translator of polls.
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Why Did Bernie Do Better in Exits Than Final Results? Apparently, Millennials Like Exit Polls

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Nate Cohn, a data journalist for the New York Times' the Upshot, is tired of hearing from Bernie Sanders diehards that the consistent gap between the Vermonter's numbers in early exit polls and in the final results during the 2016 D...

One of Trump's African Americans in Illinois Is Messing up the L.A. Times' Polling

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Nate Cohn of the New York Times’ The Upshot has made a remarkable discovery about the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, which has been unusually Trump-friendly throughout the campaign. According to Cohn, the poll for months ha...

Statistics lesson on polling

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Nate Cohn for the Upshot provides a statistics lesson in the context of election forecasts and why they differ so much. [P]ollsters make a series of decisions when designing their… Tags: elections, uncertainty, Upshot

How one man shifts national polls

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I love the statistics lessons coming out of the Upshot, in the context of the upcoming election. In their most recent, Nate Cohn goes into varying statistical weights and how… Tags: election, polling, Upshot

Possible Errors in Exit Polls Suggest More Election Surprises Ahead

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Are the exit polls, on which just about every elections analyst has relied, wrong? That’s a question raised by New York Times Upshot writer Nate Cohn — a question whose

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