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My views on monetary economics

(June 29, 2017 04:05 PM, by Scott Sumner) In this post, I'll use "(e)" to denote a (market) expected value. 1. NGDP(e) is the single most important variable in macro; it should be the centerpiece of modern macro. Unfortunately, it often doesn't even appear in models. 2. NGDP(e)... (0 COMMENTS)
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NGDP targeting, the hot new monetary craze that just might end the downturn

Business & Finance : Ezra Klein

For quite some time now, Scott Sumner, an economist at Bentley University, has been arguing on his blog and elsewhere that the Federal Reserve should engage in a strategy called “NGDP targeting” to lift the economy out of its morass...

Financial crisis or monetary policy failure?

Business & Finance / Economics : EconLog

(May 19, 2017 10:52 AM, by Scott Sumner) I often debate the question of whether severe slumps are caused by financial crisis or tight money. In my view it's usually tight money, with financial stress being a symptom of falling NGDP....

Real and monetary shocks, a numerical example

Business & Finance / Economics : EconLog

(February 18, 2016 09:44 AM, by Scott Sumner) Here's Tyler Cowen: Closer to the central point I think is Scott's claim: "Any "real shock" that reduces NGDP expectations because the Fed responded passively is also a monetary shock." ...

The new Hypermind NGDP futures market

Business & Finance / Economics : EconLog

(May 22, 2017 06:15 PM, by Scott Sumner) I am pleased to announce that a new Hypermind NGDP market is up and running. Back in 2015, we ran an annual NGDP prediction market and 4 quarterly markets. Because only the annual forecast ha...

Monetary offset in the UK?

Business & Finance / Economics : EconLog

(February 25, 2017 09:59 AM, by Scott Sumner) James Alexander has a new post discussing recent trends in NGDP growth in the UK: UK RGDP saved by accelerating NGDP Unfortunately, the headline is a bit misleading. NGDP (left scale) gr...

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