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Comments on the Fourth National Climate Assessment

Patrick J. Michaels The draft fourth “National Assessment” (“NA4”) of climate change impacts is systematically flawed and requires a complete revision. NA4 uses a flawed ensemble of models that dramatically overforecast warming of the lower troposphere, with even larger errors in the upper tropical troposphere. The model ensemble also could not accommodate the “pause” or “slowdown” in warming between the two large El Niños of 1997-8 and 2015-6.
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