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Phillips Curve Presages Deflation

Back of the envelope analysis:UE rate is now 6.7%.Almost certain to rise over next couple of months.Probably at 7% early in '09.The most optimistic estimates have recession ending about halfway thru '09.Stimulus program heavy on public works will be slow to implement.In recent recessions, UE has continued to rise for at least a year afterward.So a fairly optimistic scenario would have UE rising to 8% by YE '09 and staying there for a year.
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Deflation is coming

Business & Finance : Zero Hedge (3 years ago)

Deflation is coming In going thru old research I found a note from Dave Rosenberg in March of '08, where he discusses Bernanke's decisions on rate cuts and points to his speech from 2002 on deflation as a road map for his options. A... Read Post

Shares buckle as US bond yields rise on Fed fears

Business & Finance : Business Report (11 months ago)

World shares headed for biggest weekly fall in almost two months as investors worried about an end to the Federal Reserve's stimulus. ||| London - World shares headed for their biggest weekly fall in almost two months on Friday as i... Read Post

IMF: Rising rates, emerging market slowdown could dampen global growth

Business & Finance : Ezra Klein (16 hours ago)

A new report by the International Monetary Fund underscores the high stakes facing the Federal Reserve as it meets Tuesday in Washington to debate how to unwind years of stimulusĀ that have propped up not only the U.S. recovery but a... Read Post


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