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Phillips Curve Presages Deflation

Back of the envelope analysis:UE rate is now 6.7%.Almost certain to rise over next couple of months.Probably at 7% early in '09.The most optimistic estimates have recession ending about halfway thru '09.Stimulus program heavy on public works will be slow to implement.In recent recessions, UE has continued to rise for at least a year afterward.So a fairly optimistic scenario would have UE rising to 8% by YE '09 and staying there for a year.
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Shares buckle as US bond yields rise on Fed fears

Business & Finance : Business Report (last year)

World shares headed for biggest weekly fall in almost two months as investors worried about an end to the Federal Reserve's stimulus. ||| London - World shares headed for their biggest weekly fall in almost two months on Friday as i... Read Post

Housing Stocks Have Done Extraordinarily Well Despite Rising Mortgage Rates (XHB, LEN)

Business & Finance : Business Insider: Clusterstock (11 months ago)

On Dec. 18, the Federal Reserve announced it would taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds, a stimulus program intended to keep rates low and lending activity up. As expected, interest rates rose, with 30-year mor... Read Post

Deflation is coming

Business & Finance : Zero Hedge (3 years ago)

Deflation is coming In going thru old research I found a note from Dave Rosenberg in March of '08, where he discusses Bernanke's decisions on rate cuts and points to his speech from 2002 on deflation as a road map for his options. A... Read Post


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