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Gains for LAB, CON and SNP in this week’s council by-elections

Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,090 (41% +16%), Independent 629 (24% +1%), Labour 530 (20% -2%), Conservative 415 (16% -2%) SNP lead of 461 (17%) on the first count on a swing of 8% from Independent to SNP, SNP GAIN from Independent on the fourth count […]

When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24% With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that […]

A Con-UKIP electoral pact? Forget it. It isn’t going to happen

Too much pushes the blues and purples apart Split parties do not win elections, so the saying goes.  Nor, by extension, do parties whose natural support base is divided between parties, particularly under FPTP – which is why from time to time we hear calls from some on the right-of-centre for an electoral pact between […]

Local By-Election Results : October 16th 2014

Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 1,176 (51% -1%), UKIP 777 (33% +15%), Conservative 282 (12% -11%), Greens 38 (2% -2%), Liberal Democrats 28 (1% -3%), Independent 19 (1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 399 (18%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to UKIP Towyn on Conwy (Con Defence) Result: Conservative […]

Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

Latest churn figures from main parties to Farage’s One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 […]

The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

YouGov polling for the @TheEconomist on perceptions of UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014 Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party Could...Show More Summary

Keep abortion legal – as a last resort

Last week, the Tab, an online student tabloid, published an article by an anonymous Cambridge student entitled ‘I shouldn’t have been aggressively reminded of my abortion at Freshers Fair’. The… Continue reading The post Keep abortion legal – as a last resort appeared first on Spectator Blogs.

Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 40, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 744 (52%), Conservative 325 (23%), UKIP 252 (18%), Greens 60 (4%), Liberal Democrats 53 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: […]

Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance

Raised key local issues of support for small business & job creation with @DavidCameron in #RochesterAndStrood today — Kelly Tolhurst (@KellyTolhurst) October 16, 2014 Is Reckless right to complain about the CON primary? We are just five weeks away from the Rochester & Strood by-election and today David Cameron visited the area to meet […]

The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

@LordAshcroft latest batch of marginal polling finds 5% swing in CON held seats with majoritiies 3% – 4.8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Seat-by-seat results in my latest poll – swings range from 2% (Pudsey, Gloucester) to 8% (Brentford & Isleworth): — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 I love this Tweet […]

For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

Today's YouGov sees UKIP at highest level recorded by firm CON 31 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 19 GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Is this going to fade or are we seeing a permanent change? The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% […]

Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week to show a record high for UKIP

Following on from Survation and YouGov recording their highest ever shares for UKIP, Ipsos-Mori joins the party, and has their highest ever share for UKIP. Labour will be relieved to be back in the lead, but as with other pollsters, we’re seeing some historically low shares for the Con and Lab combined. Latest @IpsosMORI poll […]

The great CON Rochester primary mystery – how the reported turnout of 4,000 became 5,688

Why aren’t we getting the full numbers like in Totnes in 2009? Totnes CON primary result 2009. All vote detail including spoilt ballots. Why not same for Rochester one? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2014 The first news that all was not well with the CON Rochester primary was this report, now not […]

Local By-Election Preview : October 23rd 2014

Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 3) Result of last election to ward (2014): Scottish National Party 595 (25%), Independent 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 […]

A federal UK? Home Rule all round? We have been here before.

There are fewer truly new things in politics than you think. The present constitutional uncertainty – which, it should be said, could scarcely have been avoided – is no exception.… Continue reading The post A federal UK? Home Rule all round? We have been here before. appeared first on Spectator Blogs.

UPDATED: Just 5,688 of Rochester’s 70k+ electors took part in the Tory primary and the winner got it by less than 1%

@jameschappers Given that each of the 70k+ electors got a reported THREE mailings 5,588 ballots returned still makes it a flop — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 The earlier Spectator report proved to an underestimate The reported turnout of 4000 in the Rochester Tory primary is a disaster for the party given the efforts […]

Breitbart’s loss is Nigel Farage’s gain – or is it?

It’s no great surprise that Raheem Kassam, the troublesome managing editor of Breitbart London, has left his job. Kassam is a wildly self-important figure who flits about on the internet… Continue reading The post Breitbart’s loss is Nigel Farage’s gain – or is it? appeared first on Spectator Blogs.

Is David Cameron finally listening to his backbenchers?

Since my last post a lot has been happening in the Westminster village. A lot of us old hands from both the Conservative and Labour parties had come to the conclusion that our parties were engaged in a massive struggle to out-lose each other. Suddenly, however, it seems that Mr Cameron at least is listening [...]

After the ComRes Rochester poll UKIP becomes an even firmer betting favourite

UKIP price moves up sharply on the Betfair exchange Rochester market. Now an 80% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2014 Next we’ll see polls with the candidates named Amazing to recall that two and a half weeks ago the Tories had a brief spell as favourite on the Rochester betting markets. Then […]

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