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Blog Post Results (1-20 of 856)

Risky Stocks In An Expensive Market

By David Pinsen: Tobin's Q-Ratio Signals An Expensive Market In a post earlier this month ("The Q Ratio And Market Valuation"), Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives calculated the current Q Ratio of the market -- the total value of the stock market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Show More Summary

Hauser's Law At Work In Spain

By Ironman at Political Calculations: In 2012, after Spain's government had run up an extraordinary budget deficit in the previous year, the newly elected government of Spain's new prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, committed to both increase the government's revenue and to decrease its spending to put Spain on a more sound financial footing. Show More Summary

Apple: The Dangers Of Using Bad Data To Calculate Only One Metric

By Analytical Chemist: A fellow Seeking Alpha contributor wrote an article suggesting that Apple's (AAPL) return on invested capital is too high to continue, and lower future ROIC's suggest a much lower stock price for Apple in the future. Show More Summary

Clarity And The S&P 500

By Ironman at Political Calculations: And then, suddenly, the future for the S&P 500 (SPY) snapped into clear focus: (click to enlarge) It would appear that investors have shifted their forward-looking focus to 2014-Q1 in setting the pace of change for U.S. Show More Summary

Going Fractal With The S&P 500: An After-Action Report

By Ironman at Political Calculations: When should you sell your stocks? We asked that specific question several weeks ago, before we exploited the fractal nature of stock prices in developing an objective statistics-based method for determining when to tell if an upward microtrend for stocks was about to break. Show More Summary

Silver Wheaton Changes How Dividends Are Calculated

In an effort to increase the stability of its quarterly dividend, silver streamer Silver Wheaton is changing the way it calculates its payout. Instead of basing the dividend on the cash generated by operating activities in the previous quarter, it will now base it on the cash generated by operating activities in the prior four quarters. Show More Summary

Revising The GDP Again, Or Keeping Up Economic Appearances

By Rachel Mills: As happens every so often, government bean counters at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have decided that the way we've been calculating GDP in the past is wrong, all wrong and we must "fix" it. We must incorporate...Show More Summary

A Big Week For The S&P 500

By Ironman at Political Calculations: Going into this week, we're not much closer to knowing for sure if the stock market's climb from its last notable trough on 18 April 2013 is the result of noise, a fundamental shift in investor focus,...Show More Summary

Market Running On Fumes, Prepare Your Exit Strategy

By Alberto Savrieno: The stock market is running on fumes. More than a hunch, this is a calculated assessment based on concrete numbers in money supply growth. When "bull markets" are being fueled by quantitative easing, and we all know...Show More Summary

Why Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland Should Be 450 Pence

LONDON --  As a result of the financial crisis, thousands of private investors lost thousands of pounds on their shares in RBS. However, by my calculations, the shares today offer their best ever opportunity for a low-risk, big profit. At today's price, I see little possibility of Royal Bank of Scotland  shares falling significantly. Show More Summary

Analysts Say These Dividend Stocks Are Undervalued

By Insider Monkey: By Matt Doiron One quantitative screen, which investors can run to identify potential undervalued stocks is to look for low PEG ratios, a metric which is calculated by combining the P/E multiple and the consensus earnings growth rate. Show More Summary

Striving To Understand Cisco's Intrinsic Value

By Valuentum: One of the key tenets of the "12 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market" is that investors should strive to calculate the intrinsic value of a company based on its future free cash flow stream. In this vein,...Show More Summary

Why Caterpillar Is Worth Over $100 Per Share

By Valuentum: Calculating the intrinsic value of a firm is as much art as it is science. The art rests in determining the future forecasts and estimates of a company's earnings and cash flow, while the science is the mathematics behind a free cash flow to the firm model. Show More Summary

After The Dividend Cliff

By Ironman at Political Calculations: As expected, following the end of a record-breaking four-month long period in which publicly-traded U.S. companies incented by the fiscal cliff crisis set all-time records for the number of dividend increases, cuts and special (or extra) dividends paid, April 2013 was somewhat boring by comparison. Show More Summary

At S&P 1600, Prices Embed High ROIs, Low Growth - What Firms Plan To Do, Nothing More

By Joel Litman: We calculated ROI' and growth in invested capital for approximately 1000 of the largest firms in Corporate America over the last several decades. We then computed the aggregate embedded expectations of ROI' and growth that are necessary to deliver the valuations we see in US equities today. Show More Summary

Yen Update

By Marc Chandler: Investors should be aware of three Japanese developments today. First, the government unexpected revised Oct-Dec 2012 GDP figures due to an error in calculation. Nominal growth was revised to -0.1% from -0.3%. This revision was a function of considerably import and exports and less deflation than initially estimated. Show More Summary

Consistency Of The Underlying Trends

By Tim Duy: Calculated Risk comments on this morning's JOLTS report: Not much changes month-to-month in this report - and the data is noisy month-to-month, but the general trend suggests a gradually improving labor market. This observation extends far beyond just the JOLTS report to virtually the entire set of labor market data. Show More Summary

Fed Watch: Consistency of the Underlying Trends

Tim Duy: Consistency of the Underlying Trends, by Tim Duy: Calculated Risk comments on this morning's JOLTS report: Not much changes month-to-month in this report - and the data is noisy month-to-month, but the general trend suggests a gradually improving...

Portfolio Calculations: The Whole And The Parts

By James Picerno: One of the biggest challenges for successfully managing asset allocation comes from a familiar source: you. There are many resources to tap for excelling on the technical side of portfolio management. From researching...Show More Summary

IRS Should Fix Net Investment Tax Proposed Regulations

Our biggest problem is that the proposed tax regulations could cause serious damage to traders and other taxpayers by limiting various types of losses and expenses from their NII calculations. For something that significant and material, the code should specifically state that losses will be limited in this fashion, but it does not.

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