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Succinct Summations of Weeks Events 11.21.14

Succinct Summations week ending November 21st: Positives: 1. The Philly fed came in at 40.8, vs expectations of 20.7. This was the best reading since 1993! 2. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both made new all-time highs, the third consecutive week both did so. 3. Headline CPI was flat m/o/m and is up 1.7%...Read More

Philly Fed Hits a 21 Year High

To say that today's release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing report for the month of November was stronger than expected would be a gross understatement. The report absolutely crushed expectations. While economists were forecasting a level of 18.50, the actual level of the current conditions index spiked to 40.8. Show More Summary

Economist On Philly Fed: 'Don't Take It Seriously' (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

Thursday morning saw the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's latest manufacturing business outlook survey smash expectations. The report's headline index came in at 40.8, blowing away last month's 20.7 reading and far exceeding expectations for a reading of 18.5. Show More Summary

Philly Fed Manufacturers Were Very Positive about Activity in November

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing activity expanded very strongly in November, with its composite index measuringRead the Rest...

Philly Fed Explodes To 21 Year Highs, Beats By 10 Standard Deviations

Bwuahahaha... Against expectations of a small drop to 18.5, the Philly Fed business outlook 'survey' printed 40.8 - its highest since 1993. This is a 10-sigma event, more than doubling last month's 20.7 print. New Orders surged (17.3 to 35.7), Shipments doubled, Prices Paid collapsed (27.6 to 17.3) and Prices received plunged. Show More Summary

PHILLY FED EXPLODES (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT, IWM)

Wow. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's latest manufacturing report just annihilated expectations. The reading came in at 40.8. This is the highest reading since Decmber 1993. Expectations were for the report to come in at 18.5, down slightly from last month's 20.7 reading. We'll be back with the live numbers when they hit. Join the conversation about this story »

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Inflation, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

Goldman Sachs has a model that divides the business cycle into four stages: early-cycle, mid-cycle, late-cycle and recession. According to Goldman economist Kris Dawsey, the economy appears to be transitioning from early to mid-cycle...Show More Summary

Surprise: Obamacare Enrollment 30% Less Than Previously Expected; Spike In 2015 Premiums Imminent

While the small business scourge that is Obamacare may not last very long now that the GOP has full control of Congress, and a scourge it is according even to the Philly Fed itself as per "Obamacare Is A Disaster For Businesses, Philly Fed Finds"...... Show More Summary

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 43 states in September

From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. Show More Summary

Philly Fed's Hawkish President Charles Plosser To Retire In March 2015

Onehawk down, and just as rates are supposedly set to begin rising. Smart. Full press release: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser to Retire on March 1, 2015 Charles I. Plosser, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, today announced that he will retire, effective March 1, 2015. Show More Summary

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 22.5 in September

Earlier from the Philly Fed: September Manufacturing Survey The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of 28.0, its highest reading since March 2011, to 22.5 this month. The current new orders [to 15.5] and shipments indexes edged higher this month, however, increasing 1 point and 5 points, respectively.... Show More Summary

Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Eased Slightly, but Growth Remains Strong

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing activity eased slightly, but growth remained strong in its district. TheRead the Rest...

Philly Fed Slightly Weaker Than Expected

After hitting a four-year high in August, the September reading for the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey declined from 28.00 down to 22.5, which was slightly below the consensus forecast of 23.0. In spite of the decline, manufacturing...Show More Summary

Here Comes Philly Fed Manufacturing... (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TLT)

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve is set to release its latest business outlook report at 10:00 am ET. Expectations are for the report's general activity index to fall to 23.0 from 28.0 August. August's report soundly beat expectations,...Show More Summary

Schedule for Week of September 14th

The key economic report this week is August housing starts on Thursday.For manufacturing, the August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the September NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. Show More Summary

CBO: Obamacare Discourages Work

Remember all those allegations that Obamacare would be an unmitigated disaster for businesses, especially smaller companies? Well, now we have some facts. A week ago we noted that the Philly Fed found that Obamacare was a disaster for...Show More Summary

Dallas Fed Plunges, Biggest Miss In 16 Months As New Orders Collapse

With Philly Fed surging to record highs (along with stocks) but Services PMI dropping "as the recovery fades," it was left to Dallas Fed to split the buy good news or buy bad news dilemma this morning. It was bad news - from 2012 highs, Dallas Fed plunged to 7.1 (against 12.7 expectations) for the biggest miss in 16 months. Show More Summary

"Hopium": Philly Fed Surges To Highest Since March 2011 Despite Plunge In Jobs & New Orders

`` in case you were wondering how it is possible that Philly Fed surged given such shitty internals [7 out of 9 sub-indices dropped], the 6-month forecast index ("hope") just surged to 22-year highs.''

Philly Fed Business Outlook: Highest Six-Month Outlook in 22 Years

The Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The latest gauge of General Activity came in at 28.0, an increase from last month's 23.9.

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