In a day full of upside catalyst for the reflation trade including the strong TIPS auction, the speculation that the Obamacare repeal effort is back on track, and perhaps best of all the absence of hard data (today's Philly Fed "soft...Show More Summary
Earlier from the Philly Fed: Current Indicators Continue to Reflect GrowthResults from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand, but at a slower pace than last month. Show More Summary
Having surged to its highest levels since 1984 in February, Philly Fed's Manufacturing survey (soft data) has collapsed in the last two months (biggest drop since Jan 2015). The 22.00 print mised expectations and was the lowest since...Show More Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing activity remained strong in April, even as headline growth pulled back from February’s pace, which was the best reading since November...
Some interesting comments from Dave Altig, Nicholas Parker and Brent Meyer at Macroblog: The Fed’s Inflation Goal: What Does the Public Know? [O]ne natural question is whether the public is aware of this 2 percent target. We've posed...Show More Summary
From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 90. Show More Summary
The key economic reports this week are March Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.For manufacturing, March industrial production, and the April New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. ----- Monday, Apr 17th ----- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. Show More Summary
From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 86. Show More Summary
``If manufacturing conditions are generally improving, yet barely improving, we would see reports like the Philly Fed and Empire State survey above, with actual factory data not matching.'' -- See also Another 'Hard' Data Disappointment: US Industrial Production Misses, Stagnant In February.
Earlier from the Philly Fed: Current Indicators Suggest Expansion ContinuesResults from the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand. The diffusion index for general...Show More Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing activity remained strong in March, even as headline growth pulled back from its strongest pace since November 1983. The composite index...
With only 'soft' survey data supporting any hope of proclaiming economic success post-Trump (as 'hard' data has tumbled), the cracks in that sentiment are starting to show. Philly Fed's business outlook tumbled from 33 year highs in March (falling the most since March 2016). Show More Summary
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing business outlook survey for March is expected to be released today at 8:30 a.m. ET. The reading crushed expectations in February, coming in at 43.3 against economists' expectations of 18 and up from...Show More Summary
The FOMC's statement and projections were perceived at "dovish" (probably one less hike this year than expected). So mortgage rates declined...From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Biggest Intraday Drop of the Year For Mortgage RatesMortgage rates fell at their fastest pace of the year following today's rate hike announcement from the Fed. Show More Summary
The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).For manufacturing, February industrial production, and the March New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to raise rates at this meeting. Show More Summary
A couple of NFP forecasts...From Nomura: Incoming data on the labor market suggest strong job gains in February. Data on sentiment, including the Empire State, Philly Fed and ISM manufacturing surveys, point to better hiring activity in February. Show More Summary
Update: the March odds continue to surge and are now at 72% and rising. The Fed is really doing its best to convince the market that a March rate hike is coming, and it seems to be working. First, it was Philly Fed president PatrickShow More Summary
European stocks rose again with S&P futures higher, while Asian stocks were mixed. The dollar rose jumped on hawkish comments by Philly Fed's Harker, oil rose following optimistic OPEC comments, while gold dropped. Markets have largely...Show More Summary
Succinct Summations for the week ending February 17, 2017 Positives 1. U.S. stocks closed at record highs, the S&P 500 advanced for the fourth straight week. 2. The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey came in at 48.3, the strongest reading since 1984! 3. Show More Summary
Once again all eyes were on "soft" data (Philly Fed) as "hard" data (housing starts miss) disappointed and the forced buy-in pressure lifted... 7 days up in a row for the S&P 500 (longest streak since March 2013) was the limit it seems...Show More Summary