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Seven unlikely events in the fight against Islamic State, and their likely outcomes

We’ve identified five black swans -- high-impact but low-probability events that could alter the conflict. If any one does happen, all bets are off as to the next chapter in Iraq and Syria.

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/17/14

Today's Water Cooler: Mexico heats up, Hong Kong cools down, Ferguson on edge, ObamaCare, and a paper on GMOs from the "black swan" guy.

How All Those Intern Lawsuits Are Changing Hollywood

The 'Black Swan' case sparks a movement as NBCUniversal and Viacom begin to offer paid internships, Fox drops its program and others decry the end of an industry tradition read more

How All Those Intern Lawsuits Are Changing Hollywood

The 'Black Swan' case sparks a movement as NBCUniversal and Viacom begin to offer paid internships, Fox drops its program and others decry the end of an industry tradition read more

Does this Black Swan look like a Grey Goose?

Does this Black Swan look like a Grey Goose? Historical Backdrop: In the previous 125 years of the Global economy, no two events overshadow the system fragility of the financial system as the economic woes of the 1920’s and 1930’s and the crisis of 2008. Show More Summary

Tei Shi - See Me

Sounds like: Glass Animals, Billie Black, Phantogram, Silver Swans Song: Tei Shi - See Me What's so good? Brooklyn's Valerie Teicher, aka Tei Shi, unveils another new track, titled "See Me." Continuing what we heard from her track "Bassically,"...Show More Summary

Here’s to the Goth of Your Youth

3 weeks agoArts : Art Fag City

Fuck you, workplace. Joseph Keckler joins the chorus of artists throughout the ages who think you should all go shroud yourselves in vinyl and return to the Goth of your youth. Emerge from the cubicle like the black swan that you are inside.

Patti Smith performing & taking part in discussion w/ Darren Aronofsky at screening for his film 'Noah'

Patti Smith at Riot Fest Chicago 2014 (more by James Richards IV) Darren Aronofsky's (Black Swan, Requiem for a Dream) newest film Noah came out earlier this year, and he'll be screening it again in NYC on November 17 at...

YOGANONYMIX | Black Swan Sounds Presents Technicolor Fall

3 weeks agoFitness / Yoga : Yoganonymous

Technicolor Fall, Black Swan Sounds’s October playlist, features a DubConscious remix, new forward-thinking hip-hop from Technicolor Lenses, Kirtaniyas with The Polish Ambassador, Afro roots, sound tools from DJ Drez, breakdance from MC Yogi, a Cut Chemist classic and much more. Show More Summary

Darren Aronofsky: ‘Noah’ Set To Offend Auds Expecting A “Playmobil Toy” Take On Bible Story — Produced By NY

Whither the 90-minute dramatic feature? Even though Darren Aronofsky's students at NYU, where he is teaching these days, tell him they want to make movies, the director of Noah and Black Swan thinks the future of movie-going is relegated...Show More Summary

Olivia Munn channels 'Black Swan' for American Ballet Theatre Fall Gala

4 weeks agoLifestyle / Fashion : StyleList

Olivia Munn really channeled the theme of the ballet when she arrived at the American Ballet Theatre 2014 Opening Night Fall Gala The actress looked just like a ballerina as she captivated the red carpet in a teeny, tiny feathered dress...Show More Summary

Black Swans, Financial Crises and more

I’ve spent the last couple of days in Sydney at a conference organized by the Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. It’s striking that this is the only research group of which I’m aware that takes dysfunctionality, rather than the Efficient Markets Hypothesis as a starting point. Various people have asked […]

One More Thing About Apple And Microsoft - The COO-To-CEO Evolution

By Stuart Parkinson: Editor's note: Originally published on September 8, 2014 I wrote last week about Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and the important role that its business partnerships have played over the years in its success (Black Swans & Apple: to Infinity, but where beyond, The Top Note, 4 th September 2014). Show More Summary

JANUS - The Two-faced GOD

The definition of NT Taleb's Black Swan is a material event causing a shock that should have been foreseen. Gross's departure was probably imminent but is sending shock waves throughout the bond and ETF markets. Sentiment: StandoutsShow More Summary

The Bill Gross Effect: German Stocks, European Bonds, & US Credit Markets Are Plunging

Black Swan? Having seen liquidations of a relatively small fund yesterday send the NASDAQ down 2% and credit reeling, world bond and stock markets are reacting aggressively to Bill Gross' move from PIMCO. German stocks (PIMCO's parent...Show More Summary

Peter Thiel's 6 favorite books that predict the future

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Random House, $17). The weirdest idea anyone ever had about the future is that we should expect it to look like the past — but that's what the reigning science of statistics assumes. Nassim Taleb has not been fooled; he is the single best guide to understanding uncertainty. Show More Summary

Natalie Portman Inspires in Dior Rouge Baume Campaign

She never fails to make an impression and Natalie Portman is stunning in the latest spread for Dior’s Rouge Baume line of lipstick. Following up her DiorSkin Star campaign, the “Black Swan” beauty puckers up for the new ‘light and airy’...Show More Summary

GaveKal Goes Looking For Black Swans, Finds A Soaring Skew

Via Gavekal's Capital blog, The CBOE Skew Index made a 15-year, 11-month high last Friday and the 25-day moving average is on the rise again. The latest reading puts the risk-adjusted probability of a 2 standard deviation event happening in the next 30-days at 11.75%-13.10% and a 3 standard deviation event at 2.21%-2.51% for the S&P 500. Show More Summary

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