Trend Results : Chicago PMI

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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 1.29.16

Succinct summation of the week’s events: Positives: 1) Off the lowest level since 2009, the January Chicago PMI jumps to 55.6 from 42.9. 2) US Initial jobless claims totaled 278k; 4 week average fell to 283k from 285k. 3) New home sales...Show More Summary

Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final January Consumer Sentiment at 92.0

Chicago PMI: Jan Chicago Business Barometer Jumps 12.7 Points to 55.6 The Chicago Business Barometer bounced back sharply in January, increasing 12.7 points to 55.6 from 42.9 in December, the highest pace of growth in a year....Chief...Show More Summary

Chicago PMI Spikes Most Since 1980... Yeah, Seriously

After crashing to post-Lehman lows in December, there was some hope for a bounce in January but this is simply idiotic. Chicago PMI soared 30% - the most sicne 1980 - from 42.9 (7 year lows) to 55.6 (1 year highs). This was miraculously driven by double-digit and all-time record gains in new orders and order backlogs. Show More Summary

Here comes Chicago PMI ...

The latest reading on business activity in the Midwest region is set for release at 9:45 a.m. ET. Economists estimate that the Chicago PMI at 45.3 for January, versus 42.9 prior. The ISM Chicago business barometer report will also provide...Show More Summary

Friday: GDP, Chicago PMI

From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.0 percent on January 28, up from 0.7 percent on January 20. The forecast for fourth-quarter...Show More Summary

Economic Statistics for 22 Jan 16

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose slightly, to -0.22 in December. The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose 1.4 points in January to 52.7. Existing home sales jumped 14.7% in December to a 5.460 million annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, sales are up 7.7%. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell -0.2% in December […]

Economic Statistics for 31 Dec 15

The Chicago PMI plunged -5.8 points to a recessionary 42.9. I suspect the national PMI will be significantly better, though. Initial weekly jobless claims jumped 20,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average rose 4,500 to 277,000. Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 2.198 million. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.4 points to 43.6 in the latest week. The Fed’s […]

Chicago PMI Crashes, New Orders and Order Backlogs Plunge to May 2009 Level; Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

It was another disastrous month for the Chicago PMI. Economists expected a bounce back from last month's unexpected dip into negative territory. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was a guess of 50 in a range of 48 to 53. The actual reading of 42.9, below any economist's estimate is best described as a two-month crash. Show More Summary

US Tumbles Into Manufacturing Recession With Abysmal Chicago PMI Report

America has never - ever - avoided a recession when Chicago's Business Barometer has collapsed to these levels. At 42.9, missing the expectations of 50.0 by the most ever, down from 48.7 in November, the final US economic data point of the year sums up perfectly what a disaster Yellen has hiked rates into. Show More Summary

Chicago PMI declines to 42.9

Chicago PMI: Dec Chicago Business Barometer Down 5.8 points to 42.9 The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November...There was also ongoing weakness in New Orders, which contracted at a faster pace, to the lowest level since May 2009. Show More Summary

Here comes Chicago PMI ...

At 9:45 am ET, we'll get the December Chicago PMI report. Economists estimate this index improved to 50.0 in December from 48.7 in November. "This indicator of Chicago-area activity has been volatile throughout 2015, and last months’...Show More Summary

Economic Statistics for 30 Nov 15

The Chicago PMI plunged from 56.2 to 48.7 in November. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction, but this is a volatile index. Pending home sales rose only 0.2% in October to 107.7, reflecting soft home sales. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey improved, but still remained in negative territory in November, rising from -12.7 to […]

Chicago PMI Contracts Again, 6th Time in 10 Months; Service Economy Poised for a Big Slowdown?

Volatility in the Chicago PMI likely has economists scratching their heads. Following last month's surge comes this month's contraction. It's been off and on for 10 months. No swing in either direction has lasted more than two months. Show More Summary

Chicago PMI Plummets To 48.7, Below Lowest Estimate

One month ago, the Chicago PMI soared, printing at 56.2, far above the highest estimate. It was not meant to be, and printing moments ago at 48.7, a mirror image of last month, as this time it printed below the lowest estimate of 49, with consensus expected a 54.0 print. Show More Summary

Chicago PMI declines to 48.7

Chicago PMI: Nov Chicago Business Barometer Down 7.5 Points To 48.7 The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October, as a sharp fall in New Orders put it back into contraction for the sixth...Show More Summary

Here comes Chicago PMI ... (USD)

ISM's Chicago purchasing manager's index and business barometer for November is due at 9:45 a.m. ET. Economists estimate that the gauge of manufacturing and overall business activity in the region fell to 54 from 56.2 in October, according...Show More Summary

Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales

From the WSJ: Divergent Paths for U.S., European Central BanksThis break in rate policy, particularly between the Fed and the European Central Bank, could strengthen the dollar even further against the euro, crimping U.S. exporters while giving a leg up to European ones.The divergent paths highlight how much more vigorous the U.S. Show More Summary

Economic Statistics for 23 Nov 15

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose sharply in October, from -0.37 to a still-negative -0.04. The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for October fell -1.4 points to 52.6. Existing home sales fell -3.4% in October to a lower-than-expected annualized rate of 5.36 million. Dale’s social media profiles: Twitter | Facebook | Google+

Succinct Summations of Week’s Event’s 10.30.15

Succinct Summations for the week ending October 2nd, 2015 Positives: The S&P 500 just completed its best month since October 2010. ECI rose 0.6%, in line with estimates. Chicago PMI rose 50 56.2, up from 48.7 previously. Initial jobless claims came in at 260k; the 4-week average is down to 259.25k. Negatives: U.S. GDP grew...Read More

Chicago PMI Soars To Highest Since January With 7-Sigma Beat On Huge Inventory Build

Having spent most of 2015 below the 50 (deteriorating) level, Chicago PMI bounced incredibly hard in October from 48.7 to 56.2. This is the highest level since January, the biggest MoM jump since August 2014, and above even the highest economist estimate (7 standard deviations above the median). Show More Summary

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