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Daily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Senate numbers jump thanks to North Carolina

One question that we get a lot about our forecast model (and that wasn’t answered as part of our model Q&A that we had a few weeks ago) tends to come from people who look at our map first and start counting electoral votes from there. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Now we have a page for every state!

13 hours agoUS Politics / Liberal : Daily Kos

Daily Kos Elections is pleased to roll out an important new feature for our 2016 election forecast model: a page for each state! We’d been displaying day-to-day trendlines for Hillary Clinton’?s overall odds, as well as the median number...Show More Summary

A fascinating look inside the making of a poll

Here at Daily Kos Elections, we pay a lot of attention to polls. Part of that is paying attention to the errors in polls, so that we can tell the difference between normal poll-to-poll variations and changes that actually mean something. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Who will aggregate the aggregators?

I may overuse the parable about the? blind men describing the elephant when talking about polling and pollsters, and why we aggregate … but that’s because it’s a great metaphor for what’s going on. Think of the electorate as the elephant,...Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: What's the matter with Ohio?

If you’ve spent any time perusing maps of different presidential elections, you’ve probably noticed that, historically, the map would often change wildly from one election to the next. Even in recent history, we’ve seen some presidential maps that seem almost inconceivable right now. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 forecast: Polling day from hell has little effect on the bottom line

Conventional wisdom is that Wednesday was a bad day for Team Blue on the polling front; it started out with a surprising poll for Bloomberg (by Selzer, who are considered the “gold standard” in Iowa but are less proven elsewhere) showing Hillary Clinton trailing by 5 in Ohio. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: Presidential race stable, Senate chances take hit

If you were hoping for a nice, politics-free weekend, well, guess again; instead you got two days of constant Sturm und Drang, in increasingly absurd ways. If you’re more interested in the polls than the latest pundit derp, though, there wasn’t much change at all in the big picture. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: New bells and whistles

We’?ve got good news on a couple different fronts at the Daily Kos Elections presidential forecast. One is that Hillary Clinton’?s chances have ticked up a bit over the course of the week, from 70 percent on Tuesday to 75 percent  today. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: Let's have some Q&A

The Daily Kos Elections presidential and Senate forecasts have been live for two weeks now, and we’ve gotten lots of questions about how it works and what it all means. I try to address questions in the comments (either in the twice-a-week...Show More Summary

Elections Time Machine: Some Dude named Lyndon Johnson is running for Congress in Texas

Hop in our time machine and join Daily Kos Elections as we revisit key elections from yesteryear and imagine what we might have written about those races at the time—without any benefit of hindsight. This piece originally ran Oct. 2, 2015. Here's a major surprise: Emma Nicholson Buchanan, the widow of deceased Rep. Show More Summary

Here's the Daily Kos Elections rundown on the most vulnerable Republican Senate seats in 2016

It's only natural that everyone has been so focused on Donald Trump—how can you look away from that Cheeto-hued Dumpster fire?—but let's not forget that if we want Hillary Clinton to have any shot of enacting the far-reaching progressive...Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections Senate forecast: Democrats have a 59 percent chance of taking back the Senate

Daily Kos Elections has been gradually rolling out more bells and whistles that go with our model that forecasts the 2016 election. Today, we’re adding some new details about the Senate side of the equation. Previously, all you could...Show More Summary

Daily Kos Radio is LIVE at 9 AM ET!

There’s no way this election season can get any worse, so… OH. MY. GOD. OK, you caught me! I can’t point to any one particular thing that happened since Friday that’s remarkably different in kind or in scope than the “normal” outrages. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Radio is LIVE at 9 AM ET!

Wednesday! Joan! Greg! Election season! Trump idiocy! Sodium benzoate (to preserve freshness)! Listen LIVE right here at 9:00 AM ET! Who was it that I saw saying that they wished they knew of a quick and easy way to support the Kagro...Show More Summary

Daily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast: Hillary Clinton's chances hold steady at 88 percent

Last Wednesday Daily Kos Elections debuted its 2016? forecast model, where we assess the likelihood of Hillary Clinton’s odds of retaining the presidency and the Democrats’ odds at flipping the Senate. These odds were very good last week, and they continue to be good today! We project that, currently, Clinton has an 88 percent likelihood of winning. Show More Summary

Introducing the Daily Kos Elections 2016 presidential forecast

Today, Daily Kos Elections rolls out a redesigned new site featuring in-depth coverage of the 2016 races for president, Senate, governor, and the House of Representatives. Along with the always excellent news coverage and analysis by...Show More Summary

Open thread: Ideology, activists and Harry Potter

2 months agoUS Politics / Liberal : Daily Kos

What’s coming up on Sunday Kos … Donald Trump and the ‘decent’ Republicans, by Chauncey DeVega Daily Kos International Elections Digest: August edition, by Daily Kos Elections International  The epitome of Republican ideology, by Susan Grigsby Remembering Dr. Show More Summary

Daily Kos Radio is LIVE at 9 AM ET!

2 months agoUS Politics / Liberal : Daily Kos

What happened to those conventions that were on TV? I figured that the way the Dems were building things up, we would have heard from JFK & FDR on Friday night! We’re back to our regular routine now, as far as elections go. The candidates...Show More Summary

DAILY KOS: Election Justice USA Study Finds that Without Election Fraud Sanders Would Have Won by L…

DAILY KOS: Election Justice USA Study Finds that Without Election Fraud Sanders Would Have Won by Landslide.

Daily Kos Elections 2Q 2016 House fundraising reports roundup

2 months agoUS Politics / Liberal : Daily Kos

Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates, covering the period from April 1 to June 30, were due at the Federal Elections Commission on Friday night. Below is our list of fundraising numbers for House candidates in all the key 2016 races. Show More Summary

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