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Is The Market Overestimating Rate Hike Chances Again?

We talked about the mixed message from the Fed running up to the Jackson Hole Conference. Some Fed members had been out publicly putting a September rate hike on the table. Others had publicly been withdrawing a desire to make projections about what the future rate path looks like. What did [...]

Jackson Hole – What Have We Learned?

Chair Yellen’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech has been touted in the media as suggesting that there will soon be a second rate hike to follow the FOMC’s December 2015 move. However, many have noted that there...

Pyrrhus at Jackson Hole: A Monetary Policy "Victory" That Leaves the Central Bank in a Very Weak Position Blogging

[Over at Equitable Growth][1]: Larry Summers says that he is disappointed along three dimensions at what came out of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Conference. I think Summers is right to be disappointed. Indeed, from my perspective, it was disturbing that there was not more connection between the academic papers...

Disappointed by What Came out of Jackson Hole

Larry Summers: Disappointed by what came out of Jackson Hole: I had high hopes for the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The conference was billed as a forum that would look at new approaches to the conduct of monetary...

"Massive Shock" Looms In Japan As Kuroda Is In "Jeopardy", According To $2 Trillion Investor

Yesterday, in our post-mortem on the Jackson Hole symposium, we found one particular highlight most notable: according to Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, "policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large...Show More Summary

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September (and perhaps December) rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore...Show More Summary

Frontrunning: August 29

Central Bankers Spurn Call for Radical Approach at Jackson Hole (BBG) Turkey deepens Syria offensive, at odds with U.S. (Reuters) Another red line: U.S. says clashes between Turkish forces and opposition in Syria 'unacceptable' (Reuters) Iceland...Show More Summary

Why Everyone Should Have Left Wyoming With A Smile

By Richard Breslow, a former FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg Give her credit, Janet Yellen did indeed manage to leave Jackson Hole with September again “live”. Even without an explicit pre-commitment. It’s been a long slog, still has caveats and data-dependency, but it’s there nonetheless. Show More Summary

Jackson Hole truth telling: Monetary policy can't save the day alone

Last week I noted that the IMF has lost any hope of monetary policy alone lifting Japan out of its deflationary torpor, but Japan is not the only country where monetary policy has disappointed. The US recovery has been uncharacteristically lethargic, despite adventurous monetary policy initiatives. Show More Summary

Will Anything Happen Before Labor Day?

Jackson Hole. Whatever. Did anyone think that the Fed would say, "We're never, ever going to raise rates." A better question would be "what would it take for the Fed to raise rates?" SPY. The top middle panel shows that the breakout didn't hold. Show More Summary

Jackson Hole Post-Mortem: "It May Take A Massive Program, Large Enough To Shock Taxpayers"

On Saturday, the 2016 edition of the Fed's Jackson Hole two-day symposium came to an end, and as many expected, following long bouts of rhetoric, circular statements and hollow bluster, much of it contradictory, both the participants...Show More Summary

Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: Yellen Unveiling, Jackson Hole 2016

“The Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession posed daunting new challenges for central banks around the world. They have failed the test of understanding them. The post Doug Noland’s Credit Bubble Bulletin: Yellen Unveiling, Jackson Hole 2016 was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

Negative Rates and Cash Bans: The Chaos Continues at Jackson Hole

From: TheDailyBell.com Negative rates should be integral part of central bank policy options … Central banks should make negative interest rates a fully integrated part of monetary policy in order to respond effectively to future recessions, according to an academic paper presented on Friday to some of the world’s top central bankers. Show More Summary

As Fed nears rate hikes, policymakers plan for 'brave new world'

By Jason Lange and Ann Saphir JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling they could raise U.S. interest rates soon but they are already weighing new tools they may need to fight the next recession. A solid U.S. Show More Summary

The Fed's Real Game Plan

The Fed's Janet Yellen was the focal point for markets this past week. She had a scheduled speech at the annual Fed conference at Jackson Hole. When her speech was finally made public Friday morning, the response in markets was uncertainty (the most usedword for the past nine years). Stocks went up, [...]

The Probability of a Rate Hike--Come On Now!

Chairman Yellen’s talk yesterday at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium was covered heavily by the financial networks for clues as to when the FOMC might take another step toward normalization of interest rates. The markets reacted one way when her speech was released, but another way after interviews of other [...]

The Fed Is Overestimating Economic Growth

In her speech today at the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” She based that view on...Show More Summary

Fed could use reserves payments to stimulate U.S. economy: paper

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve could push banks to lend more by paying Wall Street smaller returns on money stashed at the U.S. central bank when inflation is low, according to an academic paper presented on Saturday. Show More Summary

Yellen's Hint at September Hike in Jackson Hole Speech, Markets Wary

In her Jackson Hole speech, the Fed chair reiterated the reactive nature of regulative response, also hinting at possible increases in base interest rates. Yet, as macro indicators remain feeble, market participants responded sheltering capital in Treasury bonds.

Burying Our Future at Jackson Hole

Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Shah Gilani guessed what she might say. Here's why that's important. The post Burying Our Future at Jackson Hole was originally published at The Wall Street Examiner. Follow the money!

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