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"Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was."

Writes Nate Silver. Are we still hanging on the wisdom of the Nate Silver? The headline suggests he knows he has a credibility problem. (This time he really means it.) But let's look beyond the headline. There's a lot of stuff crunched...Show More Summary

HAH! Democratic ‘Rising Star’ Caught Redhanded in MASSIVE LIE!

Nate Silver, the statistician who famously predicted Hillary would win in a landslide over Trump is even more famous for his outright refusal to discuss his political leanings. His blog, FiveThirtyEight,

Which Airline Kicks Off the Most Passengers?

With "involuntary deplanings" in the news, Nate Silver points us to some data that's oddly intriguing. Here's how often passengers are kicked off flights on the Big Four airlines in the United States. It comes via the Department of Transportation's latest monthly report: Delta overbooks at a far higher rate than any other airline. Show More Summary

Roger Pielke Junior, I forgive you for this one thing

Hi there, folks. This post should have been a tweet in response to Roger Pielke Jr (@RogerPielkeJr), professor of political science at the University of Colorado Boulder, the guy who got fired by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight for, as I understand it, his anti-science positions on climate change. This is a response for a tweet by…

Weekend Reading: Nate Silver (2009): Dow 36,000 Guy Kevin Hassett Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy

Weekend Reading: Nate Silver (2009): Dow 36,000 Guy Kevin Hassett Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy : "Nope, not an Onion headline. Kevin Hassett, co-author of _Dow 36,000_... >...which proffered exactly the sort of advice that you...Show More Summary

Voters Never Gave Ryan a Mandate for His Bill

Nate Silver: “Republicans have been running on repealing and replacing Obamacare for seven years, and they’ve won a lot of elections in that period. You can argue that they have a mandate on the issue, even if they don’t have [...]

Trump Has No Good Options on Health Care

Nate Silver: “Sometimes in a poker hand, you find yourself with no good choices. You’ve invested a lot of money in the pot. But then your opponent unexpectedly makes a large bet and you have a marginal hand. Your options [...]

Bias Buzz Podcast: Maddow’s Trump Tax Reveal Dud, GOP Obamacare Repeal, Kellyanne Conway’s Microwave Cameras, Sanctuary Cities and More

In this edition we cover Rachel Maddow's big Trump tax reveal fail, GOP Obamacare replacement plan challenges, Kellyanne Conway's camera's in microwaves remarks, Nate Silver on the 2016 liberal media bubble and more.

FiveThirtyEight: Yes, There Was A Liberal Media Bubble That Totally Missed Trump's Rise

Well, you’ve all known this for quite some time: there’s a huge liberal bubble in the news media–and they totally missed Trump’s rise. Nate Silver...

Nate Silver: Yes, there was a Liberal Media Bubble in 2016 that Underestimated Trump’s Chances

Nate Silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the 2012 electoral results, wrote an interesting and insightful piece entitled, “There Really Was a Liberal Media Bubble,” at his website FiveThirtyEight. As the headline suggests, the topic was the liberal media bias in the 2016 election cycle. Silver pointed out, among several, how groupthink affected the media’s […]

NATE SILVER: You Know, There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble. It’s hard to reread this cover…

NATE SILVER: You Know, There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble. It’s hard to reread this coverage without recalling Sean Trende’s essay on “unthinkability bias,” which he wrote in the wake of the Brexit vote. Just as was the case in the U.S. presidential election, voting on the referendum had split strongly along class, education […]

FiveThirtyEight Stat Whiz Nate Silver: ‘There Really Was a Liberal Media Bubble’

Nate Silver, editor-and-chief of fivethirtyeight.com, a polling analysis and prediction website, had a rough Election Night, as his final odds favoring a Hillary Clinton victory were wrecked by reality. Yet, Silver was relatively less...Show More Summary

Should the 2016 Election Have Been Too Close to Steal?

Nate Silver’s multi-part series about the 2016 elections is all worth reading, and I’ll be writing about several of the posts. To amplify what I’ve said before, this point about the structural context of the 2016 elections is important: An alternative to the “blue wall” and the “emerging Democratic majority” was to look at the […]

NATE SILVER: 'There really was a liberal media bubble'

FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver on Friday published an analysis of the "liberal media bubble" that led to people underestimating President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2016 election. The post, headlined "There Really...Show More Summary

Kevin Hassett v. Nate Silver on What Cause the Great Recession

A few years ago Nate Silver took on some nonsense written by Kevin Hassett: It is no wonder that markets are imploding around us. Obama is giving us the War on Business. Imagine that some hypothetical enemy state spent years preparing a “Manchurian Candidate” to destroy the U.S. Show More Summary

What's happening to Trump's popularity? Parsing the polls with Nate Silver

2 months agoHumor / odd : Boing Boing

Silver's predictions of the election outcome took much of the shine off the statistician-pollster-guru, and no amount of statistical spin ("we were expressing our confidence that the unpredictable wouldn't happen, but we left open the...Show More Summary

Which Poll Should You Believe?

I choose Rasmussen: As Nate Silver notes, Trump’s recent approval ratings vary from a high of 55 percent (with 45 percent disapproval) in the aforementioned Rasmussen poll to a low of 39 percent (with 56 percent disapproval) in a survey from Pew Research. Show More Summary

Why the polls are so 'all over the place' about Trump

2 months agoLifestyle / Fashion : AOL: Style

The 2016 election was the one that broke the polls. Politicians, journalists, and even Nate Silver got it wrong. Now just over a month into the Donald Trump Administration, polls are back and making headlines. This time, it's presidential approval ratings. Show More Summary

Why Polls Differ on Trump’s Popularity

Nate Silver: “Here’s what we can say for sure: It’s unprecedented for a president to face so much opposition from the electorate so soon. Recent polls show that anywhere between 43 and 56 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s [...]

Trump’s Supporters Should Have Taken Him Literally

Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page called it “the most pithy, profound and requoted explanation of the many who have tried to explain the president-elect’s surprising success.” While FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver deemed it “a runaway...Show More Summary

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