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The Elections Podcast Checks In On The 2016 Forecasts

We talk about our elections forecasts endlessly, so why not do so in podcast form. Every other Friday, in the regular elections podcast feed, editor-in-chief Nate Silver and politics editor Micah Cohen will sit down to talk about how the predictions have moved and why. It’ll get wonky. This week, they looked at the gaps […]

Here's How The Polls Decide Who We Are

2 days agoNews : Huffington Post

If you’re like me, you check the polls every morning to see how close we are to temporary salvation or widespread panic. Thanks to Nate Silver’s daily election forecast, polls have become the new coffee. Polls decide how the day is going to go. Show More Summary

NATE SILVER: There's still a 15% chance that Donald Trump could be our next president

A month ago, immediately after the Republican convention, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had about an even chance of getting elected president, according to political analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight. Since then, however, Trump...Show More Summary

Election Forecasting

Today in Team Bedwetting: Nate Silver and company's has its morning forecasts: Question: Just what information is there in the "polls-plus" forecast? What does it implicitly assume that Donald Trump will say and do in the next three months to double--double!--his chances relative to what the random drift of the...

What Clinton Should Worry About

Nate Silver: “At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions [...]

Trump blames the media as Clinton’s chances of victory grow

WASHINGTON — Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has an almost 9 in 10 chance of winning the presidency in November — her largest advantage to date — according to statistics guru Nate Silver, who successfully predicted the outcome of every state in the 2012 election. Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com website gave Clinton an 89 percent of winning the [...]Show More Summary

Nate Silver Totally Phoned In Some Olympic Analysis

2 weeks agoNews : Mediaite

Nate Silver's analysis of the weighted popularity of olympic sports seems a bit thin.

Trump’s Crashing and Burning: FiveThirtyEight Projects Clinton Has 92.9% Chance of Winning

Trump has just a single-digit chance of winning the electoral and popular votes, says the latest projection. Political statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight released its 2016 presidential election forecast on Friday. In short, these next three months will be an uphill battle for GOP nominee Donald Trump. Show More Summary

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Trump slump coincides with Clinton bump, economic jump

Nate Silver/ FiveThirtyEight : There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got...Show More Summary

NATE SILVER: Clinton would have a staggering 93% chance of winning the election if it were held today

Renowned statistician Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a nearly 93% chance of winning the general election if it were held Friday, less than two weeks after the same projection showed Donald Trump with a roughly 55% chance of takingShow More Summary

Clinton’s Bounce Twice as Big as Trump’s

Nate Silver: “There are some hints that Clinton’s post-convention lead over Trump will eventually settle in at about 7 percentage points, give or take a couple points. The biggest tip-off is that both the national polls and the state polls [...]

Which Election Forecast Should You Trust?

What are the chances that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States? If you’ve been following Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, you’ve seen those chances steadily increase over the last few weeks, with Trump rising from a 23-percent longshot in the site’s “polls-only forecast” to a 50–50 bet to win the presidency. Show More Summary

Why Nate Silver's Forecasts Are Better Than Yours (And How You Can Improve)

Just about every substantial business uses some type of forecasting today, most often sales forecasts. And most of those forecasts stink. What’s Silver doing right that the rest of us are doing so wrong?

NOT MUCH OF A BOUNCE FOR HILLARY, according to the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll: Meanw…

NOT MUCH OF A BOUNCE FOR HILLARY, according to the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll: Meanwhile, Nate Silver has the chance of winning at 51% Clinton, 49% Trump. UPDATE: That’s Silver’s PollsPlus forecast. The NowCast has Trump lagging badly, 56.8 to 43.2.

UH OH: Nate Silver Officially Declares it time for Democrats to Panic. All the attacks on Jill Ste…

UH OH: Nate Silver Officially Declares it time for Democrats to Panic. All the attacks on Jill Stein yesterday should have been the tipoff.

Late-Night Democratic Convention Podcast: Clinton Kicks Off The General Election

Check out all our dispatches from the Democratic convention here. Our elections podcast crew gathered late Thursday night to wrap up the Democratic National Convention — and our convention coverage overall. Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Farai Chideya, Harry Enten and Jody Avirgan talked about which voters Hillary Clinton was targeting in her speech and what […]

Nate Silver: "Why Our Model Is Bullish On Trump, For Now."

A new piece, just posted at FiveThirtyEight (where Clinton is given only a 52.6% chance of winning the election):Most of the [other election forecasts] give Clinton a better chance than we do – some of them give her as high as an 80 percent chance, in fact, despite her recent slide in the polling. Show More Summary

Science Can Show Why Voters Don't Trust Hillary Clinton

last monthNews : Newsweek: US

This article was originally published in The Conversation. Read the original article. Large swaths of the American public want Donald J. Trump to be their president—maybe even a majority, according to an analysis from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight...Show More Summary

The science behind Hillary Clinton’s problems with trust

last monthNews : The Raw Story

Large swaths of the American public want Donald J. Trump to be their president – maybe even a majority, according to an analysis from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight in late July. Many people – Democrats and Republicans alike – find this shocking. Trump made his name as the “You’re fired” guy. He has...

The Science Behind Hillary Clinton's Problems with Trust

By Jillian Jordan, Yale University and David Rand, Yale University Large swaths of the American public want Donald J. Trump to be their president - maybe even a majority, according to an analysis from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight in...Show More Summary

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