The United States women's national team beat China 1-0 in their quarterfinal match at the Women's World Cup, but their chances of winning the entire tournament have actually gone down, according to the latest model from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. Show More Summary
Now that the 16 spots in the knockout stage of the Women's World Cup have been set, the number of teams with a realistic shot to win it all has dwindled to six, according to the latest model by Nate Silver. The United States is the favorite with a 33% chance to win the World Cup. Show More Summary
Statistical guru Nate Silver — who correctly predicted an Obama win in the 2012 election when other media were calling it a toss-up — has come out with a new analysis of U.S. airline on-time data, concluding that Virgin America continues...Show More Summary
Psychology matters in elections. Throughout my career I've seen how having confidence from start to finish impacts campaigns. Understanding your strengths puts the wind at your back. It emboldens candidates and allies, and energizes volunteers, donors and supporters. Show More Summary
The United States and Germany are the overwhelming favorites to win the World Cup but the gap between the top teams and the rest of the world is narrowing, according to the latest model by Nate Silver. In addition to the two favorites,...Show More Summary
The United States is the favorite to win the upcoming Women's World Cup with a 28% chance, just edging out Germany (27%) according to Nate Silver's World Cup prediction model published in ESPN the Magazine. The U.S., who last won the...Show More Summary
If you visited ESPN.com over the weekend, you may have noticed a slight change. The face of Bill Simmons is no longer present in the featured space that is given to Grantland. You can still see Nate Silver’s portrait as the face of FiveThirtyEight, but no sign of The Sports Guy. Show More Summary
Which NBA basketball team is the greatest ever? Instead of a circular debate at the bar, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight used the Elo rating system to rank… Tags: basketball, FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight has a cool interactive up today by Nate Silver and frenemy of the program Reuben Fischer-Baum, calculating the Elo ratings throughout history for every team in the NBA. I’m a sucker for Elo ratings, so I love this. I’m also a sucker for the shitbag Knicks, so I pulled up their chart ready to cringe. That’s it up there. Read more...
It appears that Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), outgoing Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former New York governor George Pataki are on the brink of announcing their candidacies for president. While I’m no Nate Silver, my own proprietary computing aid (vodka) inspires me to calculate that these three men have no better than a.000117 percent […]
There is no good nationalism - Blanchot We recently finished the General Elections in the UK. The outcome, to say the least, was a huge surprise. Nate Silver, the American political forecaster made the claim that the Tories would win most of the seats, but that the end result might be a three-party coalition. Show More Summary
“The world may have a polling problem.” That’s the headline on a blogpost by Nate Silver, the wunderkind founder of FiveThirthyEight. It was posted on 9:54 ET the night of
A while back, Nate Silver and Allison McCann for FiveThirtyEight estimated age based on a person's name using a relatively straightforward calculation. Using data from the Social Security Administration, they… Tags: names, Randal Ol...
The last war.
Nate Silver: “Nowadays, of course, it’s become common to hear talk about the ‘blue wall’ — the set of 18 states that, along with the District of Columbia, have voted for the Democrat in each of the most recent six presidential elections, [...]
It is the birthday of Architect Daniel Libeskind (his work above) and political strategist Paul Begala (his work ahead). These are your Morning Reads In the UK, Nate Silver finally found an election he couldn’t predict (Quartz) An App...Show More Summary
(May 8, 2015 08:15 PM, by Scott Sumner) Back in 2012 there was a lot of discussion about how forecasters who relied on polls, such as Nate Silver, made much more accurate election predictions that many GOP pundits, who seemed engaged in little more than wishful thinking. I... (0 COMMENTS)
BBC: Polling council to open probe into #GE2015 surveys.
By Richard Barry In noting how poorly pre-election polls underestimated the Conservatives' performance in the U.K. general election and overestimating Labour's result, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight writes that "it's becoming harderShow More Summary
Don't blame Silver, says Silver. He only processes the data he gets from polls done by other people."The World May Have A Polling Problem," Silver asserted. "In fact, it’s become harder to find an election in which the polls did all that well."... Show More Summary