Trend Results : Nate Silver

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Despite Trump's Unpopularity, Democrats Face Long Road Back Into Power

There are a handful of hopeful signs for 2018, but the GOP's grip is deep and vast. The political forecasting industry has turned into a seesaw over the Democrats’ future. Nate Silver says Trump’s base has maxed out, lifting blue hopes. Show More Summary

How the ‘Skinny Repeal’ Bill Becomes Law

Nate Silver: “There’s not much reason to doubt that Ryan will go to conference. While there are no legal assurances of this, to fail to do so would be extremely damaging to House-Senate relations. The GOP still has a lot [...]

Health Care Confusion Won’t Help The GOP

Nate Silver: “In reading Heller’s statement for why he’d support for the motion to proceed — part of a series of shifting positions that Heller has taken on health care — I was struck by how confusing all of it [...]

State Department Says No One Cares Anymore About Hillary’s Stupid Emails

Nate Silver undertook an interesting what-if project this week with a story on what would things be like if Hillary Clinton had been elected president. Merrick Garland is on the Supreme Court, and Neil Gorsuch is not. Brian Fallon is the press secretary, and Sean Spicer is not. It is Hillary Clinton under investigation for […]

NBA GMs and Fed Governors

Here is Nate Silver, discussing the growing accuracy of NBA mock drafts: Mock drafts — and rumors/reporting about who would go where — were shockingly accurate this year. There aren’t a lot of dumb teams in the NBA anymore, and it’s getting harder to find picks that come out of nowhere. I suppose one could […]

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: No Pressure, Though, Mr. Ossoff…

Overrated: GA-6's importance as an electoral bellwether.Underrated: GA-6's impact on whether AHCA gets passed. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 20, 2017 … Here’s the thing, though: Sometimes dumb things matter if everyone agrees that they matter. Show More Summary

How GOP Reacts to Special Election Matters More

Nate Silver: “Everything we know about the Georgia 6 special election, from the polls, to the first-round results, to the results of special elections in other districts, to the shifting politics of Georgia 6, suggests that the race ought to [...]

Trump’s Poll Numbers Crater Even Further As GOP Support Slips

An AP poll confirms Nate Silver’s earlier analysis. Lost amid all the dramatics of Jeff Sessions’ testimony,Trump’s ranting and ravings, and his reported desire to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, (which we all know he will eventually...Show More Summary

U.K. Turnout Models Ignored Surge In Youth Vote

Nate Silver: “The 2017 election therefore seems to be a case of an overcorrection. The pollsters apparently did a good enough job of weighting the raw samples properly, which got them fairly close to the right outcome. Then on top [...

Montana Polls Close

The polls in Montana’s special congressional election race between Greg Gianforte (R) and Rob Quist (D) are now closed. Nate Silver: “Yeah, my back-of-the-envelope math is that Gianforte is winning the early vote by somewhere in the high single digits [...]

Nate Silver: Donald Trump’s Base Is Eroding

3 months agoLGBT / Gay : Joe. My. God.

Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight: A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps...Show More Summary

Nate Silver: Trump’s Strong Support Base is Eroding

3 months agoNews : Mediaite

There exists a common narrative amongst political talking heads regarding President Donald Trump's base of support: as his approval ratings plummet to new lows on a daily basis, his core supporters remain defiantly by his side.

Trump’s Base Is Shrinking

Nate Silver: “There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s [...]

Donald Trump Impeachment Chances: Data Expert Nate Silver Reveals Odds Of Early Trump Removal From Office

With the investigation into possible ties between Russia and the Donald Trump presidential campaign accelerating, and Trump himself firing FBI Director James Comey in a move that many on Capitol Hill have deemed an attempt to obstruct justice, talk of Trump’s impeachment has suddenly moved from the fringes of political debate into the mainstream. Show More Summary

Flashback To That Time The Media Was Certain The Comey Letter Was A 2016 Game-Changer

3 months agoNews : Huffington Post

On April 22, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted a link to a story he’d written back in November, remarking for his followers, “The case that the Comey letter ? or the media’s handling of the letter ?cost Clinton the election is painfully obvious.” He ended up taking some stick for it. Show More Summary

Conventional Wisdom May Be Contaminating Polls

Nate Silver: “When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction. Many experts expected Le Pen to beat her polls. Currency markets implied that she had a much greater chance — perhaps [...]

Over there in France

I’ve grown to dislike the data-driven life, and I agree with some of the criticisms of Robby Mook for falling too in love with some big data hocus pocus plan for the Hillary campaign. But the criticisms of the people (Nate Silver, Sam Wang, their UK counterparts) who who were wrong about Brexit and the […]

The Evidence That the Comey Letter Threw the Election Is Overwhelming

Nate Silver’s essay about the Comey effect is very rich, and there are multiple points worth discussing. But let’s start with the bottom line evaluation, which is definitive: Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week […]

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: James Comey, the Election Decider

4 months agoUS Politics / Liberal : Daily Kos

Health care, health care, health care, but the pundits have not caught up to events.  Nate Silver/Five Thirty Eight: The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election So why won’t the media admit as much? Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not   sent a letter to Congress   on Oct. Show More Summary

538: Comey Letter Probably Cost Hillary the Election

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28. The letter, which said the FBI had "learned of the existence of emails that appear to...Show More Summary

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