We’ve reported from Cleveland all week and have live-blogged each night. Check out all our dispatches from the GOP convention here. CLEVELAND — At the end of a long final night, and a long Republican National Convention, Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Harry Enten and I sat down for a quick podcast to reflect on Donald […]
If Donald Trump wins in November, the Republican Party will be his for the foreseeable future. But what happens if he loses? I talked with politics writer Molly Ball of The Atlantic about whether the GOP can put the pieces back together in a post-Trump world.
SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE: New from Nate Silver: “Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004.”
Nate Silver posts a useful chart: The polling averages a month after the conventions have been more in line — in some cases, a lot more — with the eventual results than the polling averages before them ended up being. In every one of these elections, the candidate leading in the polling averages after the […]
"I’ve... detected a lot of consternation among Clinton voters: Why isn’t her position safer? There’s really about a 35 or 40 percent chance that Trump will become president?"Based on the polls, we think the model is setting those odds about right. Show More Summary
We’ll be reporting from Cleveland all week and live blogging each night. Check out all our dispatches from the GOP convention here. Nate Silver, the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, sat down with John Dickerson, host of the CBS News show Face The Nation, to talk about the first day of the Republican National Convention, […]
There’s a good chance you’ve heard of Nate Silver. After getting his B.A. in economics at the University of Chicago in 2000, Silver took a job as an economic consultant with KPMG, the consulting company, but quit after a couple of years and made good money playing online poker. Show More Summary
As my boss Nate Silver wrote Thursday, most people in the U.S. don’t know much about Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick. That’s likely not the case among public health professionals, given Pence’s rather notorious recent history with public health policy. Take, for example, an ongoing outbreak of HIV in southern Indiana. From […]
Nate Silver: “To a national audience, Pence is almost entirely unknown; this morning’s CBS News/New York Times poll put his favorability rating at 5 percent against 8 percent unfavorable, with 86 percent of registered voters either being undecided or not [...]
TweetAll the deets. All these people will be there, July 15-16, 2016. And will your shower head soon be joining the IoT, the Internet of Things? Oh and drones, look for drones. See you there!
Nate Silver: “On the one hand, according to our models, Clinton’s state polls tell a stronger story for her than the national polls do. On the other hand, a lot of that advantage is concentrated in traditionally red states. If [...]
"So on an intellectual level I'm kind of like, you know, well, fuck it, we do the best work that we can. On a kind of emotional level, it's never fun to read criticism about you...."Says Nate Silver, who made his name being the guy who is right, quoted in Politico in "Nate Silver is happy to be wrong... Blowing Trump’s primary win made me humbler, smarter."
Nate Silver told Politico that the huge number of voters deeply dislike both presidential candidates — 20% of the electorate are currently opting for neither — increases volatility and make the election harder to predict. Said Silver: “My gut is [...]
And unsurprisingly, Clinton holds a 97.1 percent chance of winning the Illinois' 20 electoral votes. [ more › ]
Donald Trump’s electoral chances don’t look great right now, but he could attract some working-class Americans who typically vote Democratic. Americans are less worried about the Zika virus than they were about Ebola. And we explain why not every poll gets included in our charts. Show More Summary
Looking for odds on whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election? Nate Silver, who over the last eight years has become perhaps the most prominent figure in the growing field of election forecasting,...Show More Summary
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Our polls-only model has [Donald] Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating [Hillary] Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. (The forecasts will continually update as new polls are added.) Our polls-plus...Show More Summary
Before anybody laughs, just remember on a state by state basis, Silver got 49 states right in 2008 and all 50 right in 2012. As Silver warns, there is still time for Trump to do something but his time is running out fast. Silver was on Good Morning America. Show More Summary
This hasn't been the best political year so far for pioneering data journalist Nate Silver. Partly because of the hype he earned in 2012 over the accuracy of his late projections, and partly because he shows up a lot of lazy and data-averse journalists all the time, Nate's taken a ... More »