The Times credits Breitbart with predicting the rise of Donald Trump better than its former polling guru
In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm down" about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination. Two months later, he wrote that the media should "stop freakingShow More Summary
by Ansel Herz Nice job, guys. Andrew Cline / Shutterstock.com And there are many more, collected over at The Intercept: PREDICTION: Trump won't be the Republican nominee. http://t.co/F3Nsg8AnTD— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 6, 2015 Horse race campaign coverage is stupid and pointless. Show More Summary
Nate Silver: “If you’d told me a year ago that Trump would be the nominee, I’d have thought you were nuts. Don’t just take my word for it: Read what I wrote about Trump in July or August or even [...]
One of the better ways to reduce errors is to admit what went wrong and then how to solve those problems. 538 and Nate Silver got the Republican race fundamentally wrong as they were applying a modified “The Party Decides” framework as a core assumption to their analysis. Nate Silver has a good tweet on […]
Bernie Sanders won the Indiana presidential primary and has so far garnered 43 delegates to Clinton's 37. But that's pretty much where the good news ends. As Nate Silver documented...
Today's topics include: We Have a Democratic Nominee; Cenk Uygur and HA Goodman Hoping for the FBI to Make Bernie the Winner; Donald Trump is Close to the Nomination; The Woman Card; Nate Silver's Electoral Vote Tally; Ted Cruz Announces...Show More Summary
The presidential primary this year has received a large amount of discussion among Republican and Democratic voters about the fairness of the process. Nate Silver offers an interesting observation at FiveThirtyEight: "ClintonÂ?s 289-delegate lead becomes a massive 977-delegate lead if we re-run the Democratic primaries using Republican rules. Show More Summary
Nate Silver notes that Donald Trump's poll numbers are improving in the home stretch of the primaries, and he suspects that that's because voters are buying Trump's "rigged system" argument: Donald Trump has had a good run of numbers lately. Show More Summary
Nate Silver: “It also helps that Trump’s system-is-rigged message is relatively simple and plays into the media’s master narrative of the Republican race as a conflict between the Republican base and the GOP establishment. The Republicans’ delegate selection rules, by [...]
Obviously Donald Trump had a good day in New York yesterday. Consequently, much of the discussion revolves around him this morning, including this take from Nate Silver. It looks as...
Using a combination of polling data and information in this discussion at FiveThirtyEight by Nate Silver, I’ve estimated Donald Trump’s delegate take for the remaining primaries. He currently has 845 pledged delegates, and will need 1237 pledged delegates to “lock” the convention, meaning, that he will automatically win the nomination plus/minus as yet unspecified shenanigans.…
Black Americans Are Killed At 12 Times The Rate Of People In Other Developed Countries, writes Nate Silver. And the ratio gets worse when you compare to other western democracies such as the United Kingdom and Germany. America's often...Show More Summary
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: "Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it," Bernie Sanders said during Thursday night's Democratic debate in Brooklyn. "That is the most conservative part of this great country," he continued. Show More Summary
Donald Trump's path to clinching the Republican nomination ahead of the party's July convention is looking increasingly improbable, according to FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver. Silver's latest delegate projection for Trump...Show More Summary
NEW YORK—Enraged by his public pronouncements regarding that which is yet to be, the almighty gods on high are said to have blinded political statistician Nate Silver this week as punishment for seeking forbidden knowledge of the future. Show More Summary
It is possible that in a few months from now, only Nate Silver’s prediction models will stand between Donald Trump and the White House. I will leave it to future anthropologists to write about the significance of that moment. For now, the question, “What will President Trump be doing when he is not building a […]
Bernie Sanders is more popular than ever, but he’s lagging in the delegate race and even farther behind in votes. Sam Wang and Nate Silver disagree on whether Donald Trump can get to a 1,237-delegate majority. And most Americans are unaware of the Panama Papers leak. Show More Summary
Trump's probability of winning the nomination was not 1.5625%.
For those of you wondering how well Bernie Sanders did last night, here's a table that you might want to keep handy. It's from Nate Silver, and shows how big a margin Bernie needs in the remaining states to catch up with Hillary and get a majority of pledged delegates. Show More Summary