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Trend Results : Nate Silver

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Why the Democrats will probably lose

NOT all the major polling models give Republicans a clear edge to capture the Senate this autumn, but most do. The New York Times’ “The Upshot” puts the chances at 65%, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight most recently called it “in the neighborhood of 60-40” and the Washington Post’s “Election Lab” gives the GOP a 51% shot. Show More Summary

Wang: Democrats Will Keep the Senate

Douglas Mataconis, Christian Science Monitor: Unlike pretty much every other polling analyst out there -- ranging from Nate Silver to The New York Times's Upworthy to more traditional analysts, like Larry Sabato, Charles Cook and Stuart...Show More Summary

Slice of Princess Diana's Wedding Cake Snags $1,375 at Auction

A Los Angeles auction house has sold a slice of cake from Princess Diana's wedding to Prince Charles for $1,375 The 33-year-old slice of cake was sold online by Nate D. Sanders Auctions. It is still in its original white and silver presentation...Show More Summary

Republican Surge or Wipeout

Will the Republicans retake the Senate?  At this point we have really no way to tell and we probably won’t until the polls close in November.  As Nate Silver points out only about 10% of the population actually respond to polling which means that political polling is all but useless.  A majority of the Republican [...]

Tykhe's Nonexistent Urn and Senate Election Probabilities: Over at Equitable Growth: Philosophy of Probability III: the Philosophizing: Tuesday Focus for August 26, 2014

[Over at Equitable Growth:][6] Apropos of: Cosmos Elysée (2009): [On the Certainty of the Bayesian Fortune-Teller][1], Brad Delong: [Elementary Philosophy of Probability and the War on Nate Silver][2], Sky Masterson: [An Ear FullShow More Summary

Nate Silver, Inspired by Ferguson, Tells Idiotic Arrest Story

Nate Silver, a man frequently hailed as the future of journalism, gave a master class this evening on How Not To React To The News That Doesn't Involve You (Ferguson edition). In short, don't make it an occasion to tell the story about That Time You Were Arrested (as a white man) and the cops were actually nice and let you eat a burrito. Read more...

Storytime with Nate Silver didn’t go so well

The town of Ferguson, Missouri is turning into a warzone before our eyes.  After Michael Brown was shot and killed by police, the city burns while journalists are being arrested in McDonalds and protestors are met with brute force and tear gas.  They are terrible, disturbing scenes for anyone that cares about their homeland. Five Thirty […]

Over at Grasping Reality: Elementary Philosophy of Probability and the War on Nate Silver: The (Not Very) Honest Broker for the Week of August 2, 2014

Over at Grasping Reality: Elementary Philosophy of Probability and the War on Nate Silver: The (Not Very) Honest Broker for the Week of August 2, 2014: "Of all the weird things that have happened in the American public sphere in my life,...Show More Summary

PA: Website Ranks CATA 8th in Nation for Per Capita Usage

According to, a polling and blogging website created by well-known statistician Nate Silver, State College has the eighth-highest used transit system per capita in the country.

NC Senate: Repub. Tillis Shows Momentum Against Kay Hagan

In various Senate forecasts, North Carolina has looked tough for Republicans. Earlier this week Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver gave Republican nominee Thom Tillis only a 50/50 chance of beating Senator Kay Hagan, the Democrat incumbent who rode the Obama wave to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole in '08. Show More Summary

No, The Left Does Not Need Its Own Roger Kimball

Shorter Jed Perl: Ezra Klein and Nate Silver are killing American art. As Roy says, the essay is not merely pretentiously incoherent but is written it a level of abstraction so high that it renders serious engagement impossible.   At least the right-wing version of this cliched screed uses some extraordinarily dated concrete examples — […]

Nate Silver’s website

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I believe you are aware that Nate Silver spoke at last year’s JSM and that he began a publication under ESPN ( Do you have any opinions on the publication? Maybe some you wish to share with the public. Show More Summary

Silver: GOP Slight Favorite to Retake Senate

Nate Silver: [W]e continue to see Republicans as slightly more likely than not to win a net of six seats this November and control of the Senate.... A late swing toward Republicans this year could result in their winning as many as 10 or 11 Senate seats. Show More Summary

The Odds Of A GOP Senate

Nate Silver updated his Senate forecast yesterday: It’s still early, and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races. It can be tempting, if you cover politics for a living, to check your calendar, see that it’s already August, and conclude that if there […]

Nate Silver: Republicans Have 60% Chance Of Winning Senate

If Silver said the opposite, he’d be accused of being a liberal, which he is. But Silver never let his own views get in the way of his predictions. “Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood [...]

Nate Silver: Republicans still favored to retake the Senate

With three months to go until the midterm elections, Republicans maintain a slight edge in their quest to retake the Senate for the first time since 2006, according to FiveThirtyEight prognosticator Nate Silver. In his latest look at the races, Silver estimates Republicans are likely to pick up about the six seats necessary to flip the Senate. Show More Summary

Why Are Smart Guys Nate Silver and Ezra Klein Acting Like the GOP’s Useful Idiots?

Nate Silver and Ezra Klein, two of the left’s smartest smart guys, are saying usefully dumb stuff these days. Their down-the-middle “credibility” grab is understandable, but why is the rest of the Left so afraid to call them out? Both of these Guardians of the Wonk Universe occupy varying  degrees of heroic space among liberals, but what [...]

Nate Silver's New Election Forecast Puts GOP Chances of Taking Over Senate at 60-40

4 weeks agoLGBT / Gay : Towleroad

In a slight revision to earlier forecasts, statistician Nate Silver predicts that the GOP remains slightly favored to take control of the US Senate in the 2014 midterm elections this November. He writes over at FiveThirtyEight: Summing the probabilities of...

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