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Midterms Digest: Nate Silver tells Democrats not to panic just yet

Plus: why so many governors are vulnerable this year, and how the House GOP could get even more extreme

Time for Democrats Panic, Nate Silver? 'Not Quite'

Nate Silver: Win the six "path of least resistance" states that I mentioned before, avoid surprises in races like Kentucky, and all Republicans need to do is win either Iowa or Colorado to guarantee a Senate majority. Or they could have Roberts hold on in Kansas. Show More Summary

Inside Slant: NFL rulebook too thick (redux)

Over the years, I've noted how the considerable heftiness of the NFL rulebook has inevitably left officials struggling to keep it all on quick recall. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com added some data to the idea last month, notingShow More Summary

Morning midterms update: Nate Silver sees a “troubling trend” for Senate Democrats

Plus: Republicans' fundraising angst, the GOP's post-midterm agenda, the Kansas Senate race, and Chris Christie

Morning midterms update: Nate Silver gives GOP edge to take Senate – with a caveat

Plus: Updates on Florida's governor race, New Hampshire's senate race and Obama's campaigning plans

Now is the time to support Tom Cotton

(Paul Mirengoff) I share John’s uneasiness about the November elections. Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate have been downgraded to less than 60 percent by Nate Silver, whose track record as a political forecaster is outstanding. Show More Summary

What Nate Silver Hath Wrought

Philip Klein points out how “political coverage has moved from feverishly covering horse race polling, to hyping up daily fluctuations in predictive models of which party will control the Senate after 2014?: Political news abhors a vacuum, and when trying to appeal to a broader audience, it’s inevitable that journalists will boil everything down to […]

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: More on the battle for the Senate

Charlie Cook: Are things getting better for Senate Democrats? Certainly many of the better (more reliable) statistical models seem to suggest they are. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight moved from a 64 percent chance of the GOP gaining a majority, predicted on Sept. Show More Summary

There Are Only 9 Teams That Still Have A Realistic Chance To Win The Super Bowl

After just two weeks, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are still the favorites to win this year's Super Bowl according to the latest model by Nate Silver. Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage,...Show More Summary

The good and bad of election prediction data

In the chapter about political predictions in Nate Silver's 2012 book The Signal and the Noise, FiveThirtyEight's founder explains how there are prognosticators who fantasize about making a "daring, audacious, outside-the-box prediction," but that predictions based on consensus, multiple sources with different approaches, tend to be more accurate. Show More Summary

Election 2014 update: Nate Silver says Princeton rival is “wrong”

The king of electoral predictions says Sam Wang "makes several assumptions" that "don’t check out against the data"

Senate Race Polls Lean Toward Dems, So Media Starts Pro-GOP Spin

On Tuesday, there was really good news for Democrats. The latest polls showed them pulling neck and neck to keep control of the Senate, data modelers like Nate Silver were adjusting their percentages to nearly 50/50, and Republicans were getting nervous. Let the spin machine begin. Show More Summary

T Minus 48: Dems Dominate Ad Spending

This week, the race for the Senate has been dominated by analyses showing Democrats faring better than expected in the most competitive races. Election models from Nate Silver, Washington Post and New York Times all downgraded Republicans chances of taking control. Show More Summary

Nate Silver Is Going To War Against A Rival Election Forecaster

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on Wednesday openly denounced a rival forecaster's model, writing a lengthy piece describing Princeton University professor Sam Wang's forecast as "wrong." Wang and Silver's forecasts have diverged significantly on their odds for party control of the Senate in November. Show More Summary

Nate Silver versus Sam Wang

A public argument has erupted between two leading forecasters of the Senate battle — the internationally famous Nate Silver, and the little known Sam Wang, a professor of neuroscience at Princeton who dabbles in election forecasting as something of a hobby. The battle is being treated as a bit of a sideshow — as a […]

The Wave That Is Not Waving

The GOP have their hopes pinned on a “wave” election in November, but right now several of the “statistical models” being use to predict the Senate elections are moving in the direction of Democrats. Nate Silver says the Dems have drawn almost even. The Washington Post’s prognosticators  have moved from predicting a huge Republican win […]

Polling Cage Fight Heats Up Today

Nate Silver today: I don’t like to call out other forecasters by name unless I have something positive to say about them.... But he wants to make an exception for one guy: Sam Wang. The guy is so preposterously deluded that something...Show More Summary

Meet The New Nate Silver

In 2012, as President Barack Obama fell behind in pre-election polls but not in election statistician Nate Silver's odds, this phrase quickly caught on: "Keep calm and trust Nate Silver!" This summer, Democrats have a new election guru...Show More Summary

Senate Trending Democrat?

Nate Silver revises his prediction for the Senate majority in the November mid-terms on Five Thirty Eight. When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead. We’ve never quite settled on [...]

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