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The problem with math, Nate Silver edition

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has got a formula for predicting who gets into the college football playoff, and it’s pretty ridiculous.  For example, the formula predicts that if Alabama loses to Florida today, there’s a 58% chance that Alabama will miss the playoff.  The actual odds that Alabama misses the playoff are zero. Alabama has been […]

Survey weighting and that 2% swing

Nate Silver agrees with me that much of that shocking 2% swing can be explained by systematic differences between sample and population: survey respondents included too many Clinton supporters, even after corrections from existing survey adjustments. Show More Summary

Pollsters Missed Less-Educated White Voters

Nate Silver: “In the 10 states with the largest share of white voters without college degrees, Trump beat his polling average by an average of 8 percentage points — a major polling miss. But in the 10 states with the [...]

30 gifts for the person in your life who is still mad at Nate Silver

Have you heard the news about the election? It was a real upset, especially because polls reflected an outcome which was not the one that ended up happening. SEE ALSO: There is a 100% chance that Nate Silver is fking furious For some, placing trust in the polls was the only way they survived the weeks prior to the election. Show More Summary

Even Among The Wealthy, Education Predicts Trump Support

Last week, my colleague Nate Silver used census data to show that education, not income, determined the shift from Republican to Democratic votes in the 2016 election. It turns out that the exit polls can also help us confirm and expand that thesis. First, it’s clear from the exit polls that for white voters, every […]

Trump’s Win Was the 44th Largest

Nate Silver: “In a historical context, Trump’s Electoral College performance is decidedly below-average… There have been 54 presidential elections since the ratification of the 12th Amendment in 1804. (Before that, presidential electors cast two votes each, making it hard to [...]

Delta Airlines, Ohio State, Lucian Piane, Aaron Schock, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Nate Silver: HOT LINKS

last weekLGBT / Gay : Towleroad

GET OFF MY PLANE. Donald Trump supporter who disrupted flight by calling on “Hillary btches” to identify themselves banned for life by Delta: “After questioning the customer, our team members made the best decision they could given… Read The post Delta Airlines, Ohio State, Lucian Piane, Aaron Schock, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Nate Silver: HOT LINKS appeared first on Towleroad.

Silver to Conway: No, it was not an ‘historic landslide’

Donald Trump’s win was neither a landslide nor a mandate. Nate Silver took a look at exactly how “historic” Donald Trump‘s landslide was today after Kellyanne Conway tweeted this earlier tonight: 306. Landslide. Blowout. Historic. — Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) November 28, 2016 Trump won in the 44th biggest landslide out of the past 54 [...]

Nate Silver Snaps Back at Conway: Trump’s Win Not Quite a ‘Historic’ Landslide

last weekNews : Mediaite

Nate Silver took a look at exactly how "historic" Donald Trump's landslide was today after Kellyanne Conway tweeted about it.

Nate Silver Debunks Conway’s “Landslide” Claim

last weekLGBT / Gay : Joe. My. God.

Such a silly, yet typical lie: Nate Silver, pollster and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, fact-checked Kellyanne Conway’s claim Monday that Donald Trump won the presidency in a historic landslide. Lined up alongside the last 10 elections,...Show More Summary

The Case for an Election Audit

Nate Silver: “Let’s not call it a ‘recount,’ because that’s not really what it is. It’s not as though merely counting the ballots a second or third time is likely to change the results enough to overturn the outcome in [...]

NATE SILVER: Claims of “Rigged” Results in Wisconsin Are Probably BS. Plus: Good chance there’l…

NATE SILVER: Claims of “Rigged” Results in Wisconsin Are Probably BS. Plus: Good chance there’ll be a whole cottage industry of “STATISTICS PROFESSOR PROVES ELECTION RIGGED” posts at HuffPost, etc., though.

The Silver Lake young(ish) professional, adrift in 'Icebergs' at the Geffen Playhouse

2 weeks agoArts : Culture Monster

During Alena Smith’s play “Icebergs,” in its world premiere at the Geffen Playhouse, thirtysomething screenwriter Calder (Nate Corddry) sets up an air mattress in his Silver Lake living room for a visiting friend. The mattress is the self-inflating kind, and after Calder plugs it in, he sits lost...

Nate Silver Reveals Why We're Not Done With Polls After Trevor Noah Skewers Him for Being So Wrong This Election

Click here for reuse options! "This entire race, you were wrong," Noah told Silver. "Daily Show" host Trevor Noah had some tough talk for a special guest just one week after the election: founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver. Show More Summary

Nate Silver Tries To Explain Himself

As we continue to contemplate the whats, whys, and howwwwwwwws of the election of Donald Trump, Trevor Noah took the opportunity to lay into Nate Silver, the statistician whose FiveThirtyEight had been forecasting a Hillary Clinton victory for months. Will the following clip from last night’s Daily Show help you… Read more...

To Change Gun Violence, We'll Have To Change Gun Culture

Now that the dust has settled and the smoke cleared, Gun-sense Nation has to figure out how to move forward during the presidency of Donald Trump. Back when nobody realized how much Nate Silver’s predictions were nothing more than hot...Show More Summary

Nate Silver wears Cubs hat as he talks World Series, election on 'Daily Show'

Two weeks after his FiveThirtyEight site said the Cubs have a smaller chance of winning the World Series than Donald Trump has of winning the presidency, Nate Silver appeared on "The Daily Show" wearing a Cubs hat and defending his forecasts. "The gall Nate Silver, to show your face in the streets,...

As expected, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight sets traffic records on Election Day

When ESPN hired Nate Silver in 2013, they surely imagined November 8, 2016, when the presidential election would be swirling and Silver’s FiveThirtyEight would be the center of the punditry and prediction world. And even though Silver...Show More Summary

Overrated/Underrated: Post-election hangover edition with Nate Silver, 'Black Mirror' and more

UNDERRATED Our post-legalization future: Amid the ongoing fallout and speculation surrounding the results of this last week’s election, one of the real shifts that lie ahead for popular culture will come from the recent legalization of marijuana for recreational use in California and three more...

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