Here is Nate Silver, discussing the growing accuracy of NBA mock drafts: Mock drafts — and rumors/reporting about who would go where — were shockingly accurate this year. There aren’t a lot of dumb teams in the NBA anymore, and it’s getting harder to find picks that come out of nowhere. I suppose one could […]
Overrated: GA-6's importance as an electoral bellwether.Underrated: GA-6's impact on whether AHCA gets passed.https://t.co/JIJnRLShgV — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 20, 2017 … Here’s the thing, though: Sometimes dumb things matter if everyone agrees that they matter. Show More Summary
Nate Silver: “Everything we know about the Georgia 6 special election, from the polls, to the first-round results, to the results of special elections in other districts, to the shifting politics of Georgia 6, suggests that the race ought to [...]
An AP poll confirms Nate Silver’s earlier analysis. Lost amid all the dramatics of Jeff Sessions’ testimony,Trump’s ranting and ravings, and his reported desire to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, (which we all know he will eventually...Show More Summary
Nate Silver: “The 2017 election therefore seems to be a case of an overcorrection. The pollsters apparently did a good enough job of weighting the raw samples properly, which got them fairly close to the right outcome. Then on top [...
The polls in Montana’s special congressional election race between Greg Gianforte (R) and Rob Quist (D) are now closed. Nate Silver: “Yeah, my back-of-the-envelope math is that Gianforte is winning the early vote by somewhere in the high single digits [...]
Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight: A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps...Show More Summary
There exists a common narrative amongst political talking heads regarding President Donald Trump's base of support: as his approval ratings plummet to new lows on a daily basis, his core supporters remain defiantly by his side.
Nate Silver: “There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s [...]
With the investigation into possible ties between Russia and the Donald Trump presidential campaign accelerating, and Trump himself firing FBI Director James Comey in a move that many on Capitol Hill have deemed an attempt to obstruct justice, talk of Trump’s impeachment has suddenly moved from the fringes of political debate into the mainstream. Show More Summary
On April 22, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted a link to a story he’d written back in November, remarking for his followers, “The case that the Comey letter ? or the media’s handling of the letter ?cost Clinton the election is painfully obvious.” He ended up taking some stick for it. Show More Summary
Nate Silver: “When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction. Many experts expected Le Pen to beat her polls. Currency markets implied that she had a much greater chance — perhaps [...]
I’ve grown to dislike the data-driven life, and I agree with some of the criticisms of Robby Mook for falling too in love with some big data hocus pocus plan for the Hillary campaign. But the criticisms of the people (Nate Silver, Sam Wang, their UK counterparts) who who were wrong about Brexit and the […]
Nate Silver’s essay about the Comey effect is very rich, and there are multiple points worth discussing. But let’s start with the bottom line evaluation, which is definitive: Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week […]
Health care, health care, health care, but the pundits have not caught up to events. Nate Silver/Five Thirty Eight: The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election So why won’t the media admit as much? Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. Show More Summary
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28. The letter, which said the FBI had "learned of the existence of emails that appear to...Show More Summary
Nate Silver says that James Comey made Donald Trump our president.
Writes Nate Silver. Are we still hanging on the wisdom of the Nate Silver? The headline suggests he knows he has a credibility problem. (This time he really means it.) But let's look beyond the headline. There's a lot of stuff crunched...Show More Summary
Nate Silver, the statistician who famously predicted Hillary would win in a landslide over Trump is even more famous for his outright refusal to discuss his political leanings. His blog, FiveThirtyEight,
With "involuntary deplanings" in the news, Nate Silver points us to some data that's oddly intriguing. Here's how often passengers are kicked off flights on the Big Four airlines in the United States. It comes via the Department of Transportation's latest monthly report: Delta overbooks at a far higher rate than any other airline. Show More Summary