A Los Angeles auction house has sold a slice of cake from Princess Diana's wedding to Prince Charles for $1,375 The 33-year-old slice of cake was sold online by Nate D. Sanders Auctions. It is still in its original white and silver presentation...Show More Summary
Will the Republicans retake the Senate? At this point we have really no way to tell and we probably won’t until the polls close in November. As Nate Silver points out only about 10% of the population actually respond to polling which means that political polling is all but useless. A majority of the Republican [...]
[Over at Equitable Growth:] Apropos of: Cosmos Elysée (2009): [On the Certainty of the Bayesian Fortune-Teller], Brad Delong: [Elementary Philosophy of Probability and the War on Nate Silver], Sky Masterson: [An Ear FullShow More Summary
Nate Silver, a man frequently hailed as the future of journalism, gave a master class this evening on How Not To React To The News That Doesn't Involve You (Ferguson edition). In short, don't make it an occasion to tell the story about That Time You Were Arrested (as a white man) and the cops were actually nice and let you eat a burrito. Read more...
The town of Ferguson, Missouri is turning into a warzone before our eyes. After Michael Brown was shot and killed by police, the city burns while journalists are being arrested in McDonalds and protestors are met with brute force and tear gas. They are terrible, disturbing scenes for anyone that cares about their homeland. Five Thirty […]
Over at Grasping Reality: Elementary Philosophy of Probability and the War on Nate Silver: The (Not Very) Honest Broker for the Week of August 2, 2014: "Of all the weird things that have happened in the American public sphere in my life,...Show More Summary
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, a polling and blogging website created by well-known statistician Nate Silver, State College has the eighth-highest used transit system per capita in the country.
In various Senate forecasts, North Carolina has looked tough for Republicans. Earlier this week Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver gave Republican nominee Thom Tillis only a 50/50 chance of beating Senator Kay Hagan, the Democrat incumbent who rode the Obama wave to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole in '08. Show More Summary
Shorter Jed Perl: Ezra Klein and Nate Silver are killing American art. As Roy says, the essay is not merely pretentiously incoherent but is written it a level of abstraction so high that it renders serious engagement impossible. At least the right-wing version of this cliched screed uses some extraordinarily dated concrete examples — […]
Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I believe you are aware that Nate Silver spoke at last year’s JSM and that he began a publication under ESPN (http://fivethirtyeight.com/). Do you have any opinions on the publication? Maybe some you wish to share with the public. Show More Summary
Nate Silver: [W]e continue to see Republicans as slightly more likely than not to win a net of six seats this November and control of the Senate.... A late swing toward Republicans this year could result in their winning as many as 10 or 11 Senate seats. Show More Summary
Nate Silver updated his Senate forecast yesterday: It’s still early, and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races. It can be tempting, if you cover politics for a living, to check your calendar, see that it’s already August, and conclude that if there […]
If Silver said the opposite, he’d be accused of being a liberal, which he is. But Silver never let his own views get in the way of his predictions. “Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood [...]
With three months to go until the midterm elections, Republicans maintain a slight edge in their quest to retake the Senate for the first time since 2006, according to FiveThirtyEight prognosticator Nate Silver. In his latest look at the races, Silver estimates Republicans are likely to pick up about the six seats necessary to flip the Senate. Show More Summary
Nate Silver and Ezra Klein, two of the left’s smartest smart guys, are saying usefully dumb stuff these days. Their down-the-middle “credibility” grab is understandable, but why is the rest of the Left so afraid to call them out? Both of these Guardians of the Wonk Universe occupy varying degrees of heroic space among liberals, but what [...]
A repeat of 2010 not impossible.
In a slight revision to earlier forecasts, statistician Nate Silver predicts that the GOP remains slightly favored to take control of the US Senate in the 2014 midterm elections this November. He writes over at FiveThirtyEight: Summing the probabilities of...
Leaving under a “cloud,” as it were? Unversity of Colorado environmental studies professor Roger Pielke, Jr., voluntarily ended his participation in Nate Silver’s much hyped, numbers-crunching FiveThirty Eight blog after a controversy arose over an article about natural disasters. Show More Summary
Of all the weird things that have happened in the American public sphere in my life, the most weird was the War on Nate Silver--launched in the fall of 2012 by David Brooks, Joe Scarborough, Dylan Byers, and a remarkably large company. Show More Summary
The Messengers: Is Washington media finally ready to listen to Nate Silver? Odds are they should. read more