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Two polls have Clinton winning the debate

(Paul Mirengoff) In a CNN poll of debate-watchers, 62 percent thought Clinton won the debate compared to 27 percent for Trump — a 35-point margin. According to Nate Silver, that’s the third-widest margin ever in a CNN or Gallup post-debate poll, which date back to 1984. Show More Summary

JOHN HINDERAKER: The Democrats Are Worried. I love it that they’re fundraising over Nate Silver’s …

JOHN HINDERAKER: The Democrats Are Worried. I love it that they’re fundraising over Nate Silver’s predictions of doom. So there were basically two big GOP arguments against Trump. One was that he’s a horrible human being and unfit to be President, and if you believed that a few months ago then there really isn’t much […]

The Concourse I Think Nate Silver Is Broken, Maybe?

The Concourse I Think Nate Silver Is Broken, Maybe? | Jezebel Blind Woman Who Lived With Dead Son’s Skeleton for 20 Years Maybe Didn’t Know He Was There | Gizmodo Why Beef Is About to Get Cheaper | Jezebel Anti-Vaccination Mom Changes Mind After All Three Kids Contract Rotavirus | Read more...

Re: The Map Follows the National Polls, Cont.

To follow up on Rich’s point that, as Trump’s numbers rise nationally, the picture of how he’d win the states he needs becomes clearer, too, I recommend Nate Silver’s piece from last year about how there’s likely no such thing as a ”blue...Show More Summary

I Think Nate Silver Is Broken, Maybe?

yesterdaySports : Deadspin

Here are a couple tweets from politics polling seer Nate Silver, founder of ESPN math website FiveThirtyEight. Read more...

Nate Silver: 51.1% Chance Of Trump Winning If Election Held Today

Nate Silver's website "538" - best known for its (sometimes jarringly) inaccurate statistical forecasts - has adjusted its projections ahead of Monday's debate, and as of this moment has tipped the odds in the favor of Republican nominee...Show More Summary

538: Trump Now Is Favored to Win This Election Over Hillary

From Lemmiwinks, I think, who says "the entire left just sharted." Nate Silver's site now says Trump is 54.5% likely to win, and Hillary is just is at just 45.5%. Oddly, those two figures sum to 100% -- yet I...

"The Case For And Against Democratic Panic."

From Nate Silver.[T]he disagreement between polls this week was on the high end, and that makes it harder to know exactly what the baseline is heading into Monday’s debate. The polls-only model suggests that Clinton is now ahead by 2 to 3 percentage points, up slightly from a 1 or 2 point lead last week. Show More Summary

The Key States In The Contest For Senate Control

The Senate is the focus of this week’s forecast update from the Elections podcast. Politics editor Micah Cohen and editor-in-chief Nate Silver take a look at the races that will be key in deciding which party will control the Senate in 2017. They also explain how uncertainty plays an important role in how the model […]

Why I Pay Less Attention to Nate Silver This Year

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Donald Trump hits highest chance of winning 2016 election

Donald Trump has hit his highest chance of winning the 2016 election, according to FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver. On Thursday Silver's "Polls-plus" projection gave the GOP nominee a 44.5% chance of winning the presidency over rival Hillary Clinton, his best chances of victory for the entire 2016 campaign. Show More Summary

Nate Silver Warns Media Against ‘Dangerous’ Assumption Trump Isn’t Really Closing in on Hillary

6 days agoNews : Mediaite

The newest polling data from statistician Nate Silver show Donald Trump in a dead heat against Hillary Clinton as the 2016 race grows tighter and tighter.

Donald Trump hits his highest point yet in Nate Silver's preferred election forecast

Nate Silver on Tuesday gave Donald Trump his best chances yet of winning the November election. Silver, the renowned statistician who runs the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, projected that Trump had a 44.5% chance of winning...Show More Summary

The Democratic Party tries to scare up donations with Nate Silver's electoral map.

In the email this morning (click to enlarge):That actually is pretty terrifying to a Trumpophobe. Only a 14% chance one month ago and now he's up to 40.4?ADDED: I get email from both parties (and never give to either). Here's what just arrived from Trump:This is terrific — you have a chance to travel with me on the Trump campaign plane. Show More Summary

Nate Silver: Trump Surges 45 Points in One Month! Now Has 48% Chance of Winning

Donald Trump surged 45 points in one month. The Republican candidate for president now has a 48% chance of winning... The post Nate Silver: Trump Surges 45 Points in One Month! Now Has 48% Chance of Winning appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Nate Silver To Democrats: You Might Want To Buy Those Brown Trousers Now

"Bring me my brown trousers" The post Nate Silver To Democrats: You Might Want To Buy Those Brown Trousers Now appeared first on RedState.

Predicting annual temperatures a year ahead

I have a post at Nate Silver’s 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature anomalies based on El Niño and persistence – including a (by now unsurprising) prediction for a new record in 2016 and a slightly cooler, but still very warm, 2017. The key results are summarized in the figures that […]

Basket Case

According to the armchair-quarterback-turned-amateur-psephologist, Nate Silver, as of September 10, Hillary Clinton had something like a 75% chance of winning the election based on the latest polls (based on the unvarnished “Now-Cast” option). Show More Summary

Thursday TEMS: Edward Conard, Nate Silver

4 ET! The post Thursday TEMS: Edward Conard, Nate Silver appeared first on Hot Air.

NATE SILVER: Donald Trump's odds of winning are at their highest point in weeks

Renowned statistician Nate Silver's Wednesday election forecast gave Donald Trump his best odds of winning since late July. In his "Polls-plus" model, the Republican nominee has a 34.7% chance of winning in November. Democratic nominee...Show More Summary

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