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538: The System Isn't 'Rigged' Against Sanders

Harry Enten and Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: As [Bernie] Sanders fans claim that the Democratic primary system is rigged against their candidate and that Sanders wins when turnout is higher, they fail to point out that Sanders has benefited tremendously from low-turnout caucuses.... Show More Summary

Nate Silver: "I Was Just Using You To Find Out Who You'd Be Voting For… But Then I Fell For You"

4 days agoHumor : Funny or Die

Nate Silver: "I Was Just Using You To... Nate Silver is dating millions of people so that he can accurately predict the next election, but only one voter has caught his eye Submitted by: David Guzman Regular Keywords: nate silver election polls election humor political humor nate silver joke nate silver parody nate silver she's all that nate silver funny or die Views: 6

Clinton Winning Washington State Democratic Primary

6 days agoUnited States / Seattle : Slog

by Dan Savage Not that it matters: Primaries are more democratic than caucuses. And remember... The system is rigged in favor of the candidate who's won 3 million more votes. Unbelievable.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 24, 2016 [ Comment on this story ] [ Subscribe to the comments on this story ]

ROCKING IT OLD-SCHOOL: Trump Eschews Using Voter Analytics In His Campaign, Will Rely On Personalit…

ROCKING IT OLD-SCHOOL: Trump Eschews Using Voter Analytics In His Campaign, Will Rely On Personality, Rallies To Win Presidency. The “analytics” guys — like Nate Silver — have been notably poor performers in predicting Trump’s rise, so maybe that makes sense.

Hardest Working Words in Baseball Oh Wait No Poetry

Paging Nate Silver! The folks at My Poetic Side have teamed up to compile a few well known poets’ MVP words. While some of your favorite writers’ choices have more to do with subject matter and intention, for example Maya Angelou’s frequent use of the word “rise,” others like Emily Dickinson’s “word cloud” say more […]

When Predictions Go Bad

Matt Lewis: “As of this week, Nate Silver — FiveThirtyEight founder, political prognosticator, and wunderkind — is giving Donald Trump just a 25 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November. I’m considering putting a few benjamins down on Trump.” [...]

Trump Isn't the Campaign Media's First Mistake

At FiveThirtyEight this week, statistics guru Nate Silver wrote a major apologia about his 2016 predictions called "How I acted like a pundit and screwed up on Donald Trump." Its ostensible purpose was to explain a string of apparent misdiagnoses from a statistician famed for getting things right. Inadvertently, though, it...

Clinton Must Make Peace with Sanders to Win

This piece is only available to Political Wire members. The latest Economist/YouGov poll finds that 61% of Bernie Sanders voters have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton, while just 38% with a favorable one. As Nate Silver notes, this has [...]

DNCE, Star Trek, Nate Silver, Noses, Bob the Drag Queen, Monsanto, Kanye West: NEWS

last weekLGBT / Gay : Towleroad

DNCE BOP OF THE DAY. “Toothbrush”. NEBRASKA. ACLU receives complaints that group homes are rejecting gay kids. “The American Civil Liberties Union of Nebraska said in the letter sent Wednesday that it has recently fielded complaints… Read The post DNCE, Star Trek, Nate Silver, Noses, Bob the Drag Queen, Monsanto, Kanye West: NEWS appeared first on Towleroad.

NATE SILVER: Why I 'screwed up' on Donald Trump

A few weeks ago, as Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Nate Silver admitted that his data-driven site, FiveThirtyEight, "got the Republican race wrong." Silver's post, which was discussed here, was something of a mea culpa. Show More Summary

Not Even Nate Silver Got Donald Trump Right

The master of predicting election outcomes admits getting it very wrong in the Republican primary.

Nate Silver doesn’t need to apologize, since Donald Trump’s nomination was a long shot

Trump won the nomination, but that shouldn't blind us to the fact that his odds were low from the beginning

In Defense of a Bad Forecast

Nate Silver: “Trump is one of the most astonishing stories in American political history. If you really expected the Republican front-runner to be bragging about the size of his anatomy in a debate, or to be spending his first week [...]

Birthday analysis—Friday the 13th update, and some model checking

Carl Bialik and Andrew Flowers at (Nate Silver’s site) ran a story following up on our birthdays example—that time series decomposition of births by day, which is on the cover of the third edition of Bayesian Data Analysis using data from 1968-1988, and which then Aki redid using a new dataset from 2000-2014. Show More Summary

Did Nate Silver Actually Get Anything Wrong?

Ever since Donald Trump locked up the Republican nomination, there has been no shortage of recrimination and mockery directed at political analysts who failed to take his candidacy seriously. No one has taken a bigger beating than FiveThirtyEight...Show More Summary

Nate Silver Calls Upon Journalists To Commit Journalism

Nate Silver must have read Driftglass' Saturday post calling for journalists to commit acts of journalism and taken it to heart. Speaking with Brian Stelter on Reliable Sources Sunday, Silver said, "In my opinion, someone who is a demagogue won a major party nomination. Show More Summary

Nate Silver has a Donald Trump problem: Where does data journalism go now?

The press either abetted Trump's rise or got it all wrong. But the stakes seem higher for one-time oracles at 538

What’s Going On Down in West Virginny

Here’s a really interesting piece on what’s going on in WV with the results of the recent election: On Twitter last night, people who have never been near Appalachia, emboldened by the sense that We Are All Nate Silvers Now, fought over exit polls showing that many Sanders voters said they would support Trump over […]

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